Article: Does Anyone Really Expect the Red Sox to Sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

[Alex Mayes]

Spoiler Alert: Yes.

If you’re a Talk Sox Podcast listener, you’re already well aware that I’ve been talking about the Red Sox and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. since the offseason began. I want them to trade for him, right now. Pay whatever price Toronto asks, get him here, and extend him. Make him the face of this franchise.

But in my heart of hearts, did I actually believe the Boston Red Sox would be willing to bring in someone like Vlady? I want to say yes I did, but I had very little faith that John Henry would open up his wallet to pay a lot of money for a single player, even one who could alter the franchise trajectory by themselves. Considering how involved Boston was in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, I started to believe that maybe Henry’s mind was changing and he would be willing to overpay to get his guy. Then, the majority of the offseason was quiet. While I jokingly kept finding ways to bring Guerrero up on the podcast, I’ll admit that I had very little faith he could actually end up in Boston, despite the rumors he wants to play here. Outside of free agent deals to Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida, there was no real reason to believe the Red Sox would pony up for someone who likely will cost over $400 million in free agency.

But suddenly, around 9:30 Central on February 12, I was convinced. The Red Sox played the waiting game with Alex Bregman, much to the chagrin of the fanbase, but they signed their impact right-handed hitter to a three-year, $120-million contract. No, it’s not a $400 million contract, but it’s an overpay. The type of overpay that was necessary to make sure the Red Sox secured the player they wanted on their roster. It’s the exact type of overpay that leads me to believe that if Guerrero does indeed become a free agent, the Red Sox will actually be the frontrunners to sign him.

The Bregman signing proved one other thing that to me bodes well for future big-name free agent signings. There had been rumors over the last couple of offseasons that free agents didn’t want to come to Boston. The thought was they’d take the same money, or less, to play elsewhere. However, Bregman had better offers on the table. He was able to see that the Red Sox are serious about getting back into contention, they invested in their weakest position group, and they have a top-tier farm system that should begin to pay dividends as soon as this season. Guerrero will see the exact same things next off-season.

We can't forget that the Red Sox already have a first baseman who's a pretty good slugger in his own right. Bringing Guerrero into the fold would obviously make Triston Casas would be the odd man out. Guerrero would slot into the everyday first baseman role, making Casas expendable. Should he have a breakout season in 2025, Casas could be a prime trade chip, or he could even convince the Sox that they don't need a free agent first baseman after all.

If Guerrero really does want to play in Boston, and he should because he’s a monster at Fenway Park, then the signing of Bregman gives me hope that John Henry will once again open his wallet for the type of player that will thrive in Boston. The Red Sox are a big market team and big market teams make impact free agent signings. Bregman was the first one, and Guerrero reaches free agency in 2025, whicn now seems like a certainty, the Red Sox would be foolish to let him call any other city but Boston home for a long time. 

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[mvp 78]

Could they sign Vlad Jr? Sure. Will they? It's probably like a 15-20% chance IMO. There will be a lot of bidders and the Sox haven't showed that they will go large AND long in FA yet. The Vlad deal will be 10/400 or something. He's only been worth that AAV 2 out of the 6 years he's been in the league. I think there may be hesitancy on the Sox side. I think the market may go above and beyond what they are comfortable spending on a bad body 1B/DH when they already have Raffy.

[Hugh2]

The thing about Vladdy is he is a 1B, and an awful one at that.  If you're fitting him on the rosters, you're moving Devers back to 3B next year or keeping him at DH and trading Yoshida, and then trading Casas. 

Or you could move Devers to 1B and trade Yoshida and Casas and DH Vladdy if Bregman walks.  

If Bregman stays it makes a lot more sense to to play Devers at 1B and DH Vladdy.  But unless you plan on trading your top prospects and playing a 32 year old Yoshida in LF you're trading him too.  How players are valued seems to be amorphous in this sport and currently slugging 1B seem to be highly undervalued.  In other words, we are probably getting very little back for Casas. 

So in conclusion we are essentially giving away Yoshida/Casas value combined, Moving Devers to 1B hoping he can play there (probably could) and signing a DH to 450-500 million. 

I know the bat fits, the bat REALLY fits.  But I'll pass on all that.  There's going to be a lot of roster turn over going on between Bregman, Giolito, Buehler, Hendriks, Chapman.  There are going to be holes to fill and young guys needing extensions.  It really feels like a horrible use of resources for the team as they're currently constructed. 

Unless they plan on going full on LA and have no problem have a payroll above 260 in perpetuity, in that case sign me up. 

[Hitch]

I'd say there is very little chance we sign him. We'd have several big contracts on board and a core that'll need extending. 

Just not an important enough position for the outlay.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd say no.  Because like Devers, his best position is DH.  You can only have one DH.  The Sox arguably have 3 of them already in Devers, Casas and Yoshida.    

  

 

 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Could they sign Vlad Jr? Sure. Will they? It's probably like a 15-20% chance IMO. There will be a lot of bidders and the Sox haven't showed that they will go large AND long in FA yet. The Vlad deal will be 10/400 or something. He's only been worth that AAV 2 out of the 6 years he's been in the league. I think there may be hesitancy on the Sox side. I think the market may go above and beyond what they are comfortable spending on a bad body 1B/DH when they already have Raffy.

He's 26. Teams are going to be paying for his upside, more so if he puts up a good year this year. 

His FWar the last few years. 

6.3

3.3

1.3

5.5

If he puts up a solid year this year, those 2 years and his 20 year old season aren't going to weigh down the evaluation the winning team bids out for him.  If he replicates last year he's getting 500 million. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

I'd say no.  Because like Devers, his best position is DH.  You can only have one DH.  The Sox arguably have 3 of them already in Devers, Casas and Yoshida.    

  

 

 

What I was trying to say, except I lack your brevity. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

If he puts up a solid year this year, those 2 years and his 20 year old season aren't going to weigh down the evaluation the winning team bids out for him.  If he replicates last year he's getting 500 million. 

Well, that's a big IF then, since the majority of his seasons haven't been s tier. Assuming a 5 fWAR season for him is far from a given. It seems more likely that he'll be a 3 fWAR guy. If that happens, is he still getting 400M for the upside??? 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Well, that's a big IF then, since the majority of his seasons haven't been s tier. Assuming a 5 fWAR season for him is far from a given. It seems more likely that he'll be a 3 fWAR guy. If that happens, is he still getting 400M for the upside??? 

And what have the majority of his seasons looked like when you take out his very first two at the young age of 20 and 21? how many guys reach their peak at 20? and the following year was the covid year.  A team is always going to weight what you did vs. what you recently did.  If you're a 27 year old STUD and they say "well you weren't that good when you were 20" they're going to lose the bidding war. 

It only takes one team to agree with me for me to be right, and all 30 teams to agree with you for you to be right.  This is why free agents are mostly overpaid every single year.  Someones going pay for him to be that 6 WAR PIG. 

Can I say pig for hitters?

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

And what have the majority of his seasons looked like when you take out his very first two at the young age of 20 and 21? how many guys reach their peak at 20? and the following year was the covid year.  A team is always going to weight what you did vs. what you recently did.  If you're a 27 year old STUD and they say "well you weren't that good when you were 20" they're going to lose the bidding war. 

It only takes one team to agree with me for me to be right, and all 30 teams to agree with you for you to be right.  This is why free agents are mostly overpaid every single year.  Someones going pay for him to be that 6 WAR PIG. 

Can I say pig for hitters?

He's 1 for 3 over his last 3 seasons. Seems more likely that he'll be under 5 fWAR than not! 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

The thing about Vladdy is he is a 1B, and an awful one at that.  If you're fitting him on the rosters, you're moving Devers back to 3B next year or keeping him at DH and trading Yoshida, and then trading Casas. 

Or you could move Devers to 1B and trade Yoshida and Casas and DH Vladdy if Bregman walks.  

If Bregman stays it makes a lot more sense to to play Devers at 1B and DH Vladdy.  But unless you plan on trading your top prospects and playing a 32 year old Yoshida in LF you're trading him too.  How players are valued seems to be amorphous in this sport and currently slugging 1B seem to be highly undervalued.  In other words, we are probably getting very little back for Casas. 

So in conclusion we are essentially giving away Yoshida/Casas value combined, Moving Devers to 1B hoping he can play there (probably could) and signing a DH to 450-500 million. 

I know the bat fits, the bat REALLY fits.  But I'll pass on all that.  There's going to be a lot of roster turn over going on between Bregman, Giolito, Buehler, Hendriks, Chapman.  There are going to be holes to fill and young guys needing extensions.  It really feels like a horrible use of resources for the team as they're currently constructed. 

Unless they plan on going full on LA and have no problem have a payroll above 260 in perpetuity, in that case sign me up. 

Good points, but Im would add one big caveat to this and that is (to your entire well thought out post): *

*at this point in time

One of my things is flexibility and not making decisions before you have to.  We simply dont know how Casas will look coming off that weird injury, how Devers shoulder will behave, if Campbell complicates by forcing his way into the infield, how far we go next year.  What if we get to the ALCS and lose and we prove to be close despite carrying Casas all year who never fully re-found his groove (not saying this is anything more than one of many possibilities).

Can it happen? Short answer is yes.  Will it happen? Short answer is maybe. Should it happen? short answer is things will change between now and the time when its time to make this decision, and any opinions we have on it now will be dated by then

[moonslav59]

Don't spend bigly on a DH/1Bman.

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Don't spend bigly on a DH/1Bman.

Then why extend Raffy? 

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Then why extend Raffy? 

We already have Casas and Raffy (and Ref-Yoshi), so why spend bigly on a 1B/DH, now?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We already have Casas and Raffy (and Ref-Yoshi), so why spend bigly on a 1B/DH, now?

.940 OPS, 166 OPS+

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, drewski6 said:

.940 OPS, 166 OPS+

.788, 116 OPS+

We can do this, all day.

How about this one:

125 OPS+ since 2022 at 3 year arb costs. (Casas)

138 OPS+ since 2022 at $45M+ a year x ___ yrs. (Vlad)

[vjcsmoke]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Don't spend bigly on a DH/1Bman.

What if that DH/1B is Big Papi?

I'm not going to sit here and say I can predict VGJ will turn into "that guy" but he certainly has all the tools to be "that guy." Some people are just special regardless of position.  I'll wait to see how he does this season but if he puts up 5+ WAR again I believe it's a no-brainer to go after him HARD in the next offseason.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

What if that DH/1B is Big Papi?

Great example. We never paid him top money.

[mvp 78]

On 3/1/2025 at 1:04 AM, moonslav59 said:

Great example. We never paid him top money.

Nelson Cruz put up good numbers for a long time and never got paid much.