Article: Who’s the Red Sox Third Baseman? It's Messy

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I think it will take an injury for either one…

I highly doubt it.  You have two top elite prospects mlb ready.  You risk

losing the extra year of control and the draft pick if they end up winning ROY even if you keep them down.  And you’re not keeping them down for long.  
 

I think one breaks camp, and one stays down in AAA.  

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I highly doubt it.  You have two top elite prospects mlb ready.  You risk

losing the extra year of control and the draft pick if they end up winning ROY even if you keep them down.  And you’re not keeping them down for long.  
 

I think one breaks camp, and one stays down in AAA.  

Two?

The Sox have THREE top ten prospects.  
 

So you’re saying the Sox should needlessly further complicate their roster issues to accommodate one of two players  both under 24?  
 

It would be one thing if the Sox had a clear need.  But if Bregman is at 2b, the clearest path comes by replacing the Gold Glover with 5 years of control in RF.  Abreu is no Dwight Evans, but he’s not exactly Rudy Pemberton either.

The Sox might add neither right away because history has shown the first one needed will be Mayer.  Story hasn’t exactly shown a full season is a given…

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Two?

The Sox have THREE top ten prospects.  
 

So you’re saying the Sox should needlessly further complicate their roster issues to accommodate one of two players  both under 24?  
 

It would be one thing if the Sox had a clear need.  But if Bregman is at 2b, the clearest path comes by replacing the Gold Glover with 5 years of control in RF.  Abreu is no Dwight Evans, but he’s not exactly Rudy Pemberton either.

The Sox might add neither right away because history has shown the first one needed will be Mayer.  Story hasn’t exactly shown a full season is a given…

Yes

A.  I feel much stronger about this than I did about Pivetta getting a QO.

B. As OldRed would say the streets are talking, except here it’s everyone.  It’s blatantly obvious that people have been hearing the Sox are hopeful Campbell will be on their roster.

C. I specifically excluded Mayer because he’s not on their same level as Campbell and Mayer.  Who by all but one account have separated themselves from Mayer, have a little bit more seasoning than Mayer, and had better numbers and more time in AAA, they also have clearer paths in 2025 than Mayer does.

D. when you’re regarded as thee, or one of thee best prospects in all of baseball with all star game level talent you don’t make the majors based on when it’s convenient for the roster, rather you make the team when you are ready. Sox feel very strong about this.

Sox are one of the most progressive teams in terms of embracing changes and player development.  They’re not stashing kids who are ready for control.  Which they’d lose if they won an award.  Campbell/Anthony might be one the best bets to win ROY.  The Sox will lose a draft pick and a year of control if they didn’t start the year on the roster.  So why WOULDNT you if the are ready.

 

sorry Notin, you’re far off on this one.  You’re going to see a rookie on your starting day lineup.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I think he will, but does it need to be today? Tomorrow? By opening day at the latest?

Believe it or not, the overall defense might be BETTER with Devers at 3b.  Bregman is a terrific all around fielder who’s probably equal or better defensively at 2b than any of the Romy/Hammy/Grissom triumvirate.  
 

Which set of players contributes to an overall better defense?

1b: Casas

2b; Hamilton/Grissom/Romy

3b: Bregman

Lf: Yoshida

CF: Duran

DH: Devers

 

or

 

1b: Casas

2b: Bregman

3b: Devers

Lf: Duran

Cf: Rafaela 

DH:: Yoshida

I think DHam is a plus defender at 2B, and so is Romy. I also think 3B is an important defensive position.

I think LF is one of the least important defensive positions, especially in Fenway. I don't think the drop off from Rafaela to Duran in CF is all that much, and if Rafaela plays RF vs LHPs, it's a better defense than Refsnyder in RF.

I'll go with Bregman at 3B, DHam/Romy at 2B, until Campbell arrives and improve the offense by having Yoshida in LF vs RHPs and Ref vs LHPs. Duran in CF. Abreu-Rafaela in RF is a nice D platoon.

It's not an clear cut choice. We could see switches, here and there.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

....  You’re going to see a rookie on your starting day lineup.

I'm not so sure, but if 1 or 2 look great in ST'ing, I think it will happen.

I'm not as down on the DHam-Romy platoon at 2B as many seem to be, and I could see us starting the season giving them a second look. (The first look was pretty nice.)

I think the years of control factor might be in the equation, as well as the 40 man roster issues, if we add one or two. They are not deal-breakers, but somewhat significant factors.

I'd love to see Campbell at 2B, opening day. Anthony in LF or RF would be nice, too, and if it squeezes Rafaela to a platoon/super utility role, that's not a bad thing. I'm more worried about squeezing our best bat vs LHPs, Refsnyder, out of the line-up, but I suppose he could play LF vs LHPs, Duran CF and Anthony RF.

One thing is for certain, with Campbell at 2B and Anthony in the OF, Yoshida is left out in the cold- not a bad thing, either, except for the wasted budget space and 26/40 man roster spot.

1. Duran CF

2. Bregman 3B

3. Casas DH/1B

4. Devers 1B/DH

5. Campbell 2B

6. Abreu RF v R/ Refsnyder LF v L

7. Story SS

8. Anthony LF v R/ CF v L

9. Wong.Narvaez C

Damn, that is nice.

Rafaela super-sub on the bench w Abreu or Ref (nice PH'ers) DHam or Romy and Narvaez or Wong

 

 

[Hugh2]

Let’s rephrase.  A rookie will be on the starting day roster.  
 

im not sure why anyone can honestly believe at least one of Campbell or Anthony wouldn’t be on it.  This is obvious to me

[notin]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes

A.  I feel much stronger about this than I did about Pivetta getting a QO.

B. As OldRed would say the streets are talking, except here it’s everyone.  It’s blatantly obvious that people have been hearing the Sox are hopeful Campbell will be on their roster.

C. I specifically excluded Mayer because he’s not on their same level as Campbell and Mayer.  Who by all but one account have separated themselves from Mayer, have a little bit more seasoning than Mayer, and had better numbers and more time in AAA, they also have clearer paths in 2025 than Mayer does.

D. when you’re regarded as thee, or one of thee best prospects in all of baseball with all star game level talent you don’t make the majors based on when it’s convenient for the roster, rather you make the team when you are ready. Sox feel very strong about this.

Sox are one of the most progressive teams in terms of embracing changes and player development.  They’re not stashing kids who are ready for control.  Which they’d lose if they won an award.  Campbell/Anthony might be one the best bets to win ROY.  The Sox will lose a draft pick and a year of control if they didn’t start the year on the roster.  So why WOULDNT you if the are ready.

 

sorry Notin, you’re far off on this one.  You’re going to see a rookie on your starting day lineup.

Maybe, but not until one gets out on the roster.  And if I had to pick one, I’d probably pick Mayer, because we’ve seen Story go down enough times.  

As for the “word on the streets,” this is not exactly new. Remember when it was so important to move on from Ellis Burks so there was a clear path for Psycho Steve Lyons?   And the bulk of it started before Bregman arrived and clouded the picture.

Now if the Sox can clear out one of Casas, Devers, Abreu, or Yoshida, that changes things.  Or if they sour of Rafaela and decide he’s the one who needs AAA or should platoon with Abreu, that also changes things.

But neither of those situations have happened yet…

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Maybe, but not until one gets out on the roster.  And if I had to pick one, I’d probably pick Mayer, because we’ve seen Story go down enough times.

 

As for the “word on the streets,” this is not exactly new.  And the bulk of it started before Bregman arrived and clouded the picture.

Now if the Sox can clear out one of Casas, Devers, Abreu, or Yoshida, that changes things.  Or if they sour of Rafaela and decide he’s the one who needs AAA or should platoon with Abreu, that also changes things.

But neither of those situations have happened yet…

You actually think Mayer is going to make the roster before Campbell and Anthony.

 

Mayer will be the last of the three.  Mayer will be mid season at some point.  Anthony and Campbell will be early and one of them is breaking camp with the team.

Teams aren’t keeping top prospects down anymore.  

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Maybe, but not until one gets out on the roster.  And if I had to pick one, I’d probably pick Mayer, because we’ve seen Story go down enough times.

 

As for the “word on the streets,” this is not exactly new.  And the bulk of it started before Bregman arrived and clouded the picture.

Now if the Sox can clear out one of Casas, Devers, Abreu, or Yoshida, that changes things.  Or if they sour of Rafaela and decide he’s the one who needs AAA or should platoon with Abreu, that also changes things.

But neither of those situations have happened yet…

So they could plug Campbell at 2nd, Bregman at 3rd and roll with Duran/Rafaela/Anthony in the outfield and super utility Rafaela.  
 

Cambell more likely than both he and Anthony to start the season.  One is much more likely than both I’ll admit that.  But in both scenarios you push Yoshida to the bench.

Yoshida on the bench is NOT ideal.  But if they think those guys are ready they’re not blocking them because Yoshida needs at bats.  That ain’t going to happen

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

You actually think Mayer is going to make the roster before Campbell and Anthony.

 

Mayer will be the last of the three.  Mayer will be mid season at some point.  Anthony and Campbell will be early and one of them is breaking camp with the team.

Teams aren’t keeping top prospects down anymore.  

Sure they are.

Did Skenes break camp with Pitt last year?  Did Dylan Crews break camp with Washington?  Or Jackson Holliday with Baltimore?

Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill both did, but Chourio enhanced his chances by signing an extension.  Now if Campbell or Anthony were to follow suit…

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Sure they are.

Did Skenes break camp with Pitt last year?  Did Dylan Crews break camp with Washington?  Or Jackson Holliday with Baltimore?

Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill both did, but Chourio enhanced his chances by signing an extension.  Now if Campbell or Anthony were to follow suit…

Yeah, and how f***ed are the pirates for not breaking camp with Skenes? Not sure why you’d use that example.  That will probably be the example front offices use to never make that kind of mistake again.

Skenes was a top 10 prospect just like Campbell and Anthony (Sox got 2).  And he was kept down in the minors to get an extra year of team control then brought up mid may.  Pirates tried to manipulate his service time.  Turns out he was so dominate when he came up he still won rookie of the year.

if they had not done that, they would have received a top draft pick for his award.  And because he won it, they DID NOT get the extra year of control.  
 

Campbell also balances the lineup more, and is a versatile defender who may have a home in LF or 2B.  I’d pick him to start the year in Boston

[notin]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

So they could plug Campbell at 2nd, Bregman at 3rd and roll with Duran/Rafaela/Anthony in the outfield and super utility Rafaela.  
 

Cambell more likely than both he and Anthony to start the season.  One is much more likely than both I’ll admit that.  But in both scenarios you push Yoshida to the bench.

Yoshida on the bench is NOT ideal.  But if they think those guys are ready they’re not blocking them because Yoshida needs at bats.  That ain’t going to happen

The biggest obstacle Campbell faces is Cora was an advocate for Bregman at 2b, at least publicly.  But if he was serious, it poses a big obstacle for Campbell.  
 

Anthony has the advantage of the two, because Rafaela is ok, but weak offensively.  If they decide to demote/bench/limit Rafaela, Anthony has a better chance.  It doesn’t help Anthony that the public voice of the team is “Rafaela in CF as much as possible.”  Of course one might look at this and think “ they’re going FULL THROTTLE on Rafaela in CF.”  So there is that.

All Mayer needs is Story to get hurt.  Thats something Story has excelled at, unfortunately…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yeah, and how f***ed are the pirates for not breaking camp with Skenes? Not sure why you’d use that example.  That will probably be the example front offices use to never make that kind of mistake again.

Skenes was a top 10 prospect just like Campbell and Anthony (Sox got 2).  And he was kept down in the minors to get an extra year of team control then brought up mid may.  Pirates tried to manipulate his service time.  Turns out he was so dominate when he came up he still won rookie of the year.

if they had not done that, they would have received a top draft pick for his award.  And because he won it, they DID NOT get the extra year of control.  
 

Campbell also balances the lineup more, and is a versatile defender who may have a home in LF or 2B.  I’d pick him to start the year in Boston

Whether or not the Pirates were right or wrong, they did do it, which was the point. 

Campbell in LF means benching/platooning/demoting Rafaela, whom they have said plays CF “as much as possible.”  Now if they count CF in Polar Park, that would help Campbell out.  Think they demote Rafaela?  Who loses at bats by playing Campbell in LF? We know it won’t be Duran…

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, notin said:

I think he will, but does it need to be today? Tomorrow? By opening day at the latest?

Believe it or not, the overall defense might be BETTER with Devers at 3b.  Bregman is a terrific all around fielder who’s probably equal or better defensively at 2b than any of the Romy/Hammy/Grissom triumvirate.  
 

Which set of players contributes to an overall better defense?

1b: Casas

2b; Hamilton/Grissom/Romy

3b: Bregman

Lf: Yoshida

CF: Duran

DH: Devers

 

or

 

1b: Casas

2b: Bregman

3b: Devers

Lf: Duran

Cf: Rafaela 

DH:: Yoshida

Not a comparison that needs much consideration as Yoshida is not starting LF much at all.

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

Whether or not the Pirates were right or wrong, they did do it, which was the point. 

Campbell in LF means benching/platooning/demoting Rafaela, whom they have said plays CF “as much as possible.”  Now if they count CF in Polar Park, that would help Campbell out.  Think they demote Rafaela?  Who loses at bats by playing Campbell in LF? We know it won’t be Duran…

The fact that the pirates did it might be your point.  But the fact that they paid a harsh price for it with the world watching is mine.  I like mine better.

certainly teams aren’t starting all their rookies.  But if a guy is mlb ready, teams are going to be less inclined to try and manipulate service time and delay their big league careers.

additionally, for elite prospects, top ten, which the Sox have TWO of good teams aren’t going to hold them back if they’re MLB ready for the likes of Yoshida, Abreu, yada yada yada.  If that’s your reason, then given a full bill of health you think they keep those guys down in AAA all year? That makes no sense.

Mayer needs more seasoning, if an injury happens early in ST then baring a very strong spring performance it’s just as likely the slide the more MLB ready Campbell there or seek other options until Mayer is ready. 
 

At least one and likely both of Campbell/Anthony in the bigs before Mayer is even more of a slam dunk.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Let’s rephrase.  A rookie will be on the starting day roster.  
 

im not sure why anyone can honestly believe at least one of Campbell or Anthony wouldn’t be on it.  This is obvious to me

The biggest reason right now is neither are eligible.  Not to mention the lineup is overcrowded as it is…

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, notin said:

The biggest reason right now is neither are eligible.  Not to mention the lineup is overcrowded as it is…

0% factor if Campbell and Anthony are performing and deemed MLB ready.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The fact that the pirates did it might be your point.  But the fact that they paid a harsh price for it with the world watching is mine.  I like mine better.

certainly teams aren’t starting all their rookies.  But if a guy is mlb ready, teams are going to be less inclined to try and manipulate service time and delay their big league careers.

additionally, for elite prospects, top ten, which the Sox have TWO of good teams aren’t going to hold them back if they’re MLB ready for the likes of Yoshida, Abreu, yada yada yada.  If that’s your reason, then given a full bill of health you think they keep those guys down in AAA all year? That makes no sense.

Mayer needs more seasoning, if an injury happens early in ST then baring a very strong spring performance it’s just as likely the slide the more MLB ready Campbell there or seek other options until Mayer is ready. 
 

At least one and likely both of Campbell/Anthony in the bigs before Mayer is even more of a slam dunk.

Manipulating service time isntn no the only reason prospects get held back a couple months. And citing the Pirates losing out because the player won ROY - which happens to exactly TWO teams per year, is a weak argument.  Some teams like having the depth and use their prospects when injuries settle in.  I doubt the Nationals held back James Wood and Dylan Crews because they felt Eddie Rosario was the answer in LF.   Or the Orioles starting Jorge Mateo over Jackson Holliday?  Know why? Because Mateo was pretty good the year before and they wanted to keep BOTH.  And it was the right move, because when Holliday got his chance he did not hit the ground running.  The O’s had the same experience with Heston Kjerstad, who had a lot less to prove in AAA than Kristian Campbell has.  And it turned out NOT clearing a path for both Holliday and Kjerstad was the right move.

So I will ask again - who are you benching for Campbell or Anthony?

Also Mayer’s chances rest on Story getting injured, which is an annual thing, like the summer solstice or Groundhog Day.  If Story goes down early, Campbell at SS over Mayer? I know Campbell has played some SS, but that doesn’t mean he’s any good.  Hamilton played SS in the minors, too, and it turns out he’s not good at it. Was Campbell a good SS in his limited sample?  Or at least good enough to fill in?

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

0% factor if Campbell and Anthony are performing and deemed MLB ready.

Has that happened yet either?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Let’s rephrase.  A rookie will be on the starting day roster.  
 

im not sure why anyone can honestly believe at least one of Campbell or Anthony wouldn’t be on it.  This is obvious to me

I'm not sure anyone has said there won't be one, but some are not sure... like me.

There are several reasons for there not to be one.

Mayer will not, unless Story is hurt.

Guerrero may have the best chance of all.

Campbell and Anthony seem to be ML ready, now, but they will likely not be added to the 40, unless and until they will be added to the 26 as FT or near FT players. That very well may happen on opening day, especially if there is an injury, but maybe without one, as well.

If Bregman is at 2B, I'm not sure Campbell takes an OF position by opening Day. Anthony may not either. We have Duran, Rafaela and Abreu-Refsnyder. Yoshida in the OF has been mentioned, and if Devers is at DH, we may see him out there, too.

I do not view the DHam-Romy/Grissom platoon as bad at 2B, but I do like the looks of Campbell at 2B better. That does not mean I'm sure he wins the job on opening day. DHam and Romy looked pretty good at 2B defense in 2024, and have nice matching splits as a platoon. Did they do enough to deserve the job? Probably not, but they might be given one, anyway, even if just to gain Campbell another year of service.

There is also a chance the two rookies do not do well in ST'ing, which might tolt the choice towards a vet.

There are 13 everyday slots, and 2 go to catchers, plus locks to Devers, Bregman, Casas, Story, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela and probably Refsnyder. Yoshida may start on the IL or be optioned to AAA. That's 10 slots, not counting Yoshida or any 2Bman or rookies.  The 3 slots could go to...

Yoshida, if healthy

Campbell and or DHam, Romy and Grissom

Anthony

That's 6 players for 3 slot.

Campbell & Anthony offer the most upside and excitement. Yoshida might be the most predictable bat. Romy offers the best flexibility of the remaining 3 and hit well vs LHPs, last year. DHam looks good at 2B defense only, hit righties okay and could steal 50 bases, if given 650 PAs. Grissom has the most to prove and does not look good on D at any position. I'd say Grissom has the worst shot at the opening day 26 of these 6, so maybe it's really 3 slot for 5 player. If Yoshi starts the season on the IL, it's down to 4, and a rookie is almost certainly going to be one.

The most likely 3 vets over  a rookie would be Yoshida, DHam and Romy. That's not an exciting bunch, and I can see why Campbell and or Anthony can be viewed as clear choices over any of them, but I don't see it as a slam dunk choice, as of now.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Has that happened yet either?

That’s the point dude, if they’re ready they’re going to start.  You think the team is going to hold them back and not figure it out?

im telling you right now they will reduce someone’s playing time.  Probably some

combination of Rafaela and Abreu.  And yes, not every rookie is going to start because of the pick, but we aren’t talking about just a regular top prospect we are talking about two top ten guys who are allegedly on the brink of their MLB caterers.  If they rake in spring training, they’re starting, certainly one.  
 

you wanna know who’s being benched definitively? Ask Cora.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That’s the point dude, if they’re ready they’re going to start.  You think the team is going to hold them back and not figure it out?

im telling you right now they will reduce someone’s playing time.  Probably some

combination of Rafaela and Abreu.  And yes, not every rookie is going to start because of the pick, but we aren’t talking about just a regular top prospect we are talking about two top ten guys who are allegedly on the brink of their MLB caterers.  If they rake in spring training, they’re starting, certainly one.  
 

you wanna know who’s being benched definitively? Ask Cora.

"If they are raking," it will be hard to argue against them making the starting line-up. Even if the others are raking, too, I'm pretty sure one or both will be up. It's not certainty, if the vets are looking good, but I'd play Campbell in a heart beat over DHam/Romy, with Bregman at 3B, Devers at DH or 1B, Casas at the other and let the OF deal with any sort of crunch from Yoshi-Ref or Anthony.

I do wonder, if some sort of trade might still go down, before opening day: maybe a Grissom or DHam trade, or possibly Abreu. I think trading Rafaela would put us under the tax line, but I doubt he'll be shopped.

These are good choices that have to ne made. This is not, "should we start Arroyo, Peraza or Chavis."

[notin]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

"If they are raking," it will be hard to argue against them making the starting line-up. Even if the others are raking, too, I'm pretty sure one or both will be up. It's not certainty, if the vets are looking good, but I'd play Campbell in a heart beat over DHam/Romy, with Bregman at 3B, Devers at DH or 1B, Casas at the other and let the OF deal with any sort of crunch from Yoshi-Ref or Anthony.

I do wonder, if some sort of trade might still go down, before opening day: maybe a Grissom or DHam trade, or possibly Abreu. I think trading Rafaela would put us under the tax line, but I doubt he'll be shopped.

These are good choices that have to ne made. This is not, "should we start Arroyo, Peraza or Chavis."

Why need a trade?

The following position players can simply be demoted to Worcester: Yoshida, Rafaela, Abreu, Hamilton, Gonzalez, Grissom, Casas.  Maybe someone else.  Wong and Narvaez both can, for example, but it’s irrelevant in this discussion.

If the Sox didn’t have this bizarre commitment to Rafaela, he’s the obvious choice, at least for the bench…

[Bellhorn04]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

Why need a trade?

The following position players can simply be demoted to Worcester: Yoshida, Rafaela, Abreu, Hamilton, Gonzalez, Grissom, Casas.  Maybe someone else.  Wong and Narvaez both can, for example, but it’s irrelevant in this discussion.

If the Sox didn’t have this bizarre commitment to Rafaela, he’s the obvious choice, at least for the bench…

I too have expressed reservations about Little Raf's O, but you also have the fact he had a 2.8 bWAR in his rookie season, 4th best for Sox position players.  A little early to give up on him?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I too have expressed reservations about Little Raf's O, but you also have the fact he had a 2.8 bWAR in his rookie season, 4th best for Sox position players.  A little early to give up on him?

Current Red Sox management is all about versatility, and Rafaela is unique in that regard.

Besides the fact that Ceddanne is signed through 2032, I just don't see current management trading a guy who can provide elite defense at the two key non-battery positions on the field: centerfield and shortstop.

Yes, I saw him make Es at both, but he also made plays that no one else besides maybe Jackie Bradley and Trevor Story could make.

If Rafaela is a centerpiece in a deal for a Skenes type, ok -- but Boston won't ever give him away just to make room on the roster for another prospect. The Sox might make room on the bench for him, though...

 

[notin]

38 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I too have expressed reservations about Little Raf's O, but you also have the fact he had a 2.8 bWAR in his rookie season, 4th best for Sox position players.  A little early to give up on him?

Good defense obviously, but WAR can be inflated disproportionately quite often for players who play multiple positions.  Ben Zobrist had plenty of value, but he was never a realistic MVP candidate despite WAR indicating to the contrary.  Unless Rafaela learns to hit, playing one position only could actually negatively impact his WAR, even without a slip in defense.

With Duran improving in CF, Rafaela could/should slip into a utility role if the Sox want to get Campbell or Anthony onto the roster.

It’s weird you think it’s early to give on him, while posting his K/BB rates are in a rare place where no player has ever gone before.  A few have and most fall into the category of career minor  leaguers or AAAA players…

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Good defense obviously, but WAR inflated disproportionately quite often for players who play multiple positions.  Ben Zobrist had plenty of value, but he was never a realistic MVP candidate despite WAR indicating to the contrary.  Unless Rafaela learns to hit, playing one position only could actually negatively impact his WAR, even without a slip in defense.

I think you're gonna have to explain why this is.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think you're gonna have to explain why this is.

A fair question.  I’m not certain why “Zobristing” (what I called it when that term would have been relevant) happens mathematically, but I theorized when defensively talented players are used around the diamond with good sample sizes, OOZ plays become a larger percentage of their plays, but this felt situational.  Another theory is Fangraphs intentionally allows this to put some value on versatility…

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Current Red Sox management is all about versatility, and Rafaela is unique in that regard.

Besides the fact that Ceddanne is signed through 2032, I just don't see current management trading a guy who can provide elite defense at the two key non-battery positions on the field: centerfield and shortstop.

Yes, I saw him make Es at both, but he also made plays that no one else besides maybe Jackie Bradley and Trevor Story could make.

If Rafaela is a centerpiece in a deal for a Skenes type, ok -- but Boston won't ever give him away just to make room on the roster for another prospect. The Sox might make room on the bench for him, though...

 

If the Sox want Skenes, Rafaela is NOT the centerpiece.  In fact, his contract might make him a detrimental inclusion.  The starting offer for Skenes is both Campbell AND Anthony, and maybe more.  I know you’re trying to explain his usefulness, but this can be done with less extreme examples.  Once you dive into unrealistic evidence, I’m not sure what your point is…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

A fair question.  I’m not certain why “Zobristing” (what I called it when that term would have been relevant) happens mathematically, but I theorized defensively talented players are used around the diamond with good sample sizes.  One theory was OOZ plays become a larger percentage of their plays, but this felt situational.  Another theory is Fangraphs intentionally allows this to put some value on versatility…

The guy I was thinking of is Tony Phillips, who played all over the diamond for a career bWAR of 50.9. Listed as a second baseman because that's the position he played the most, Phillips also led the AL in range factor as a left fielder one year, and as a third baseman in another.

Never an All-Star, yet in his seven-year peak (1990-96) averaged 5.3 WAR over 162 games. Baseball Reference's scale considers 5+ WAR as "All-Star Quality." 

In 18 seasons, Phillips had a career Slugging % of .389, identical to Rafaela's. But Phillips, who averaged 97 runs scored, walked to first on BB about as frequently as Ceddanne walked back to the dugout after whiffing in '24...