Article: Triston Casas and the Price of Bat Speed

[Maddie Landis]

Hitters and instructors have gone all-in on chasing bat speed. Now that Statcast allows us to quantify it, we'll be able to determine its value.

Last May, Major League Baseball introduced bat speed metrics for the 2024 season to Baseball Savant. Like exit velocity, bat speed is another data point for evaluation, and this week, Baseball Savant unveiled bat speed metrics for the second half of the 2023  season. Triston Casas’ average bat speed ranked in the 94th percentile (75.8 mph) in 2023 but dropped slightly in 2024 (74.6 mph).

 

Casas’ modest bat speed decline isn’t surprising. On April 20, 2024, he sustained a left rib cartilage tear, later describing his pain, “[The doctor] pretty much chalked it up to me being so big, rotating so fast, so many times that I created a car crash within my body.” It’s commendable that Casas recovered from a dramatic injury in four months and improved his bat speed upon his return. His injury was a primary factor in his bat speed decline, but he made a few adjustments. A baseball swing is a kinetic chain transfer. Various body parts work together to generate energy to hit a baseball. Power flows from the ground up, starting in the pelvis and transitioning to the hips, torso, arms, hands, and its final destination - the bat. The kinetic chain creates power. Upon the bat’s contact with the ball, the ball goes boom. Efficient swings produce the most power.

Sox fans are aware that Casas frequently adjusts his approach/stance at the plate in between pitches. On a two-strike count, he adopts a wider stance. In a 2023 FanGraphs interview, he discussed his different swings:

Quote

“I work on a bunch of different swings. I work on a lofty swing. I work on a more direct swing. I work in an inside-out swing, I work on a backspin to right field swing and a groundballs to the left side swing. I think all those different combinations of swings can help me when I go up to the plate, because ultimately you’ve got to kind of pick a hole where you want to try to hit the ball.” That’s based off of, like I said, the pitcher’s characteristics, as well as the conditions of that day, like where the other team is shifting you.”

For the sake of this article, I'll be analyzing Casas' swing in instances where he hit a home run. Pre-swing, he looks cool and collected. Casas utilizes a bottom-hand-dominant grip directly above the bat knob with a small leg kick. Tension explodes upon contact with the ball. His shoulders rotate abruptly and his wrists snap in his follow-through. Speaking of which, Casas’ follow-through is violent. Check out his first home run from last year. His hips and shoulders rotate hard enough that he's forced to catch himself with his left leg. Because of this, his abdomen bears the load of his powerful swing. The force of his swing brings the bat to his shoulders, coiling his abdomen before dropping it at his hips.

You see this violent follow-through again before his injury in April.

 

Vertical bat angle (VBA) refers to the angle of the bat, relative to the ground, at the moment of contact. VBA correlates to launch angle, so a swing with a higher VBA will usually yield a higher launch angle, because the bat connects with the ball on an upward trajectory. (For more on VBA, read this in-depth article from Driveline Baseball.) Higher launch angles result in fly balls so a hitter’s ideal launch angle varies on their exit velocity and individual power. Casas’ VBA has jumped 3.9 degrees since his major league debut.

• 2022: VBA: 33.1 (.197/.358/.408, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 20 wRC+, 24.2 K%)
• 2023 VBA: 36.1 (.263/.367/.490, 24 HR, 65 RBI, 139 wRC+, 25.1% K%)
• 2024 VBA: 37.0 (.241/.337/.462, 13 HR, 32 RBI, 119 wRC+, 31.7% K%)

Proper mechanics ensure the most effective power generation. Making contact with the ball at a degree forces Casas’ abdomen to carry the force of his swing. The gradual increase of Casas’ VBA, combined with the inefficient energy transfer in his swing indicates his injury was a ticking time bomb. In the Statcast era, it’s easy to get caught up in minute details like bat speed, exit velocity, and VBA. The primary question remains - did Casas’ drop in bat speed affect his performance? Let’s take a closer look at his stats.

Month	Bat Speed	HR	K%	BB%	wRC+	HH%	EV
Jul 2023	75.9	7	24.7	14.3	216	48.9	91.9
Aug 2023	75.9	5	22	14	145	44.4	90.4
Sep 2023	75.7	3	26.3	14	132	44.1	88.2
Apr 2024	74.4	6	28.9	13.3	132	42.3	89.9
Jun 2024	72.7	0	66.7	33.3	40
Aug 2024	74.4	2	33.9	8.1	110	37.1	89.3
Sep 2024	75	5	31.8	13.6	114	54.2	91.2

Note that Casas played just one game in June 2024, so those cells aren't included in the color-coding. These don’t metrics highlight any significant drop in his production. From July 2023 to September 2024, his average wRC+ was 127. He grades above the league average in exit velocity and hard-hit rate so his overall power wasn’t affected by the reduction in bat speed.

Moreover, Casas’ injury didn’t happen suddenly. His cartilage gradually deteriorated until it ultimately tore, meaning he played while dealing with pain in April, during which time he posted a 132 wRC+ and hit six home runs. In September 2024, his bat speed improved to 75 mph, while his VBA dropped to 34.8 degrees, contributing to a significant increase in his fly ball rate (28.6% to 47.9%) and hard-hit rate (22.9% to 41.7%). Casas hit three home runs in his first three at-bats against the Minnesota Twins on September 22, 2024. Compared to earlier in the season, his follow-through appears to be smoother and he’s not stumbling in the batter’s box anymore. 

Bat speed is just another statistic to measure a hitter’s performance. It remains a relatively new metric for analysis, so more information will follow as additional data becomes available. With sprint speed, pitch velocity, exit velocity, and now bat speed, chasing speed is the new trend in contemporary baseball. The Red Sox farm system overhauled its hitting development program in 2024, placing a greater significance onbat speed, bat-to-ball skills, swing decisions and ball flight . They now rank No. 1 in Baseball America’s Farm System rankings.

A pitchers have continued chasing velocity, UCL injurieshave continued to rise. Year-round baseball, with its repetitive motions, puts strain on an athlete’s body. Players push themselves to the human body’s maximum limit, sometimes hurting themselves in the process. Freddie Freeman played through the 2024 World Series with a sprained ankle and broken rib cartilage. Last year, Braves catcher Sean Murphy faced a setback with a strained oblique and it negatively affected his offensive production. At times, Triston Casas appeared to be in noticeable pain before he was officially placed on the injured list. As new metrics spark the demand for “peak” performance, the wear and tear on baseball players has never been more drastic.

View full article

[moonslav59]

I still think 2025 might be a huge bustout year for Casas.

Please, do NOT trade him.

[harmony]

Is the ceiling for Triston Casas a poor-fielding Anthony Rizzo?

The 6-foot-5 Casas and the 6-foot-3 Rizzo are somewhat disciplined lefthand-hitting first basemen drafted by the Red Sox out of Florida high schools separated by 15 miles.

Casas has posted 2.9 bWAR in 222 games through his first three partial MLB seasons. In his first three partial MLB seasons Rizzo had posted 4.4 bWAR in 296 games.

Rizzo is a four-time Gold Glove winner who has posted 39.8 bWAR in 1,727 career games.

The divided projections for Casas include the low ZiPS three-year projections of 1.5, 1.5 and 1.7 WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/stats?position=1B#zips-3-year-projections

A year from now the Red Sox and others should have a better idea of Casas' value.

[moonslav59]

I'm very high on the 2025 season for Casas.

[jdc69]

Thats a smooth looking swing. He probably doesn't need to be in the weight room. He should eat hot dogs and drink beer for preparation like Babe Ruth.

[Bellhorn04]

20 hours ago, Maddie Landis said:

Hitters and instructors have gone all-in on chasing bat speed. Now that Statcast allows us to quantify it, we'll be able to determine its value.

Last May, Major League Baseball introduced bat speed metrics for the 2024 season to Baseball Savant. Like exit velocity, bat speed is another data point for evaluation, and this week, Baseball Savant unveiled bat speed metrics for the second half of the 2023  season. Triston Casas’ average bat speed ranked in the 94th percentile (75.8 mph) in 2023 but dropped slightly in 2024 (74.6 mph).

 

Casas’ modest bat speed decline isn’t surprising. On April 20, 2024, he sustained a left rib cartilage tear, later describing his pain, “[The doctor] pretty much chalked it up to me being so big, rotating so fast, so many times that I created a car crash within my body.” It’s commendable that Casas recovered from a dramatic injury in four months and improved his bat speed upon his return. His injury was a primary factor in his bat speed decline, but he made a few adjustments. A baseball swing is a kinetic chain transfer. Various body parts work together to generate energy to hit a baseball. Power flows from the ground up, starting in the pelvis and transitioning to the hips, torso, arms, hands, and its final destination - the bat. The kinetic chain creates power. Upon the bat’s contact with the ball, the ball goes boom. Efficient swings produce the most power.

Sox fans are aware that Casas frequently adjusts his approach/stance at the plate in between pitches. On a two-strike count, he adopts a wider stance. In a 2023 FanGraphs interview, he discussed his different swings:

For the sake of this article, I'll be analyzing Casas' swing in instances where he hit a home run. Pre-swing, he looks cool and collected. Casas utilizes a bottom-hand-dominant grip directly above the bat knob with a small leg kick. Tension explodes upon contact with the ball. His shoulders rotate abruptly and his wrists snap in his follow-through. Speaking of which, Casas’ follow-through is violent. Check out his first home run from last year. His hips and shoulders rotate hard enough that he's forced to catch himself with his left leg. Because of this, his abdomen bears the load of his powerful swing. The force of his swing brings the bat to his shoulders, coiling his abdomen before dropping it at his hips.

You see this violent follow-through again before his injury in April.

 

Vertical bat angle (VBA) refers to the angle of the bat, relative to the ground, at the moment of contact. VBA correlates to launch angle, so a swing with a higher VBA will usually yield a higher launch angle, because the bat connects with the ball on an upward trajectory. (For more on VBA, read this in-depth article from Driveline Baseball.) Higher launch angles result in fly balls so a hitter’s ideal launch angle varies on their exit velocity and individual power. Casas’ VBA has jumped 3.9 degrees since his major league debut.

• 2022: VBA: 33.1 (.197/.358/.408, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 20 wRC+, 24.2 K%)
• 2023 VBA: 36.1 (.263/.367/.490, 24 HR, 65 RBI, 139 wRC+, 25.1% K%)
• 2024 VBA: 37.0 (.241/.337/.462, 13 HR, 32 RBI, 119 wRC+, 31.7% K%)

Proper mechanics ensure the most effective power generation. Making contact with the ball at a degree forces Casas’ abdomen to carry the force of his swing. The gradual increase of Casas’ VBA, combined with the inefficient energy transfer in his swing indicates his injury was a ticking time bomb. In the Statcast era, it’s easy to get caught up in minute details like bat speed, exit velocity, and VBA. The primary question remains - did Casas’ drop in bat speed affect his performance? Let’s take a closer look at his stats.

Month	Bat Speed	HR	K%	BB%	wRC+	HH%	EV
Jul 2023	75.9	7	24.7	14.3	216	48.9	91.9
Aug 2023	75.9	5	22	14	145	44.4	90.4
Sep 2023	75.7	3	26.3	14	132	44.1	88.2
Apr 2024	74.4	6	28.9	13.3	132	42.3	89.9
Jun 2024	72.7	0	66.7	33.3	40
Aug 2024	74.4	2	33.9	8.1	110	37.1	89.3
Sep 2024	75	5	31.8	13.6	114	54.2	91.2

Note that Casas played just one game in June 2024, so those cells aren't included in the color-coding. These don’t metrics highlight any significant drop in his production. From July 2023 to September 2024, his average wRC+ was 127. He grades above the league average in exit velocity and hard-hit rate so his overall power wasn’t affected by the reduction in bat speed.

Moreover, Casas’ injury didn’t happen suddenly. His cartilage gradually deteriorated until it ultimately tore, meaning he played while dealing with pain in April, during which time he posted a 132 wRC+ and hit six home runs. In September 2024, his bat speed improved to 75 mph, while his VBA dropped to 34.8 degrees, contributing to a significant increase in his fly ball rate (28.6% to 47.9%) and hard-hit rate (22.9% to 41.7%). Casas hit three home runs in his first three at-bats against the Minnesota Twins on September 22, 2024. Compared to earlier in the season, his follow-through appears to be smoother and he’s not stumbling in the batter’s box anymore. 

Bat speed is just another statistic to measure a hitter’s performance. It remains a relatively new metric for analysis, so more information will follow as additional data becomes available. With sprint speed, pitch velocity, exit velocity, and now bat speed, chasing speed is the new trend in contemporary baseball. The Red Sox farm system overhauled its hitting development program in 2024, placing a greater significance onbat speed, bat-to-ball skills, swing decisions and ball flight . They now rank No. 1 in Baseball America’s Farm System rankings.

A pitchers have continued chasing velocity, UCL injurieshave continued to rise. Year-round baseball, with its repetitive motions, puts strain on an athlete’s body. Players push themselves to the human body’s maximum limit, sometimes hurting themselves in the process. Freddie Freeman played through the 2024 World Series with a sprained ankle and broken rib cartilage. Last year, Braves catcher Sean Murphy faced a setback with a strained oblique and it negatively affected his offensive production. At times, Triston Casas appeared to be in noticeable pain before he was officially placed on the injured list. As new metrics spark the demand for “peak” performance, the wear and tear on baseball players has never been more drastic.

 

View full article

 

Yes, I'm wondering if the quest for max effort and max velocity in all things will result in more injuries of this kind to hitters.

I'm wondering if Devers's shoulder issues may also be a result of how hard he swings.

[Maddie Landis]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, I'm wondering if the quest for max effort and max velocity in all things will result in more injuries of this kind to hitters.

I'm wondering if Devers's shoulder issues may also be a result of how hard he swings.

The same goes for Yoshida. His right arm holds the bat at the end of his swing so his right shoulder, which underwent a labrum repair, bears the follow-through’s force. 

(Devers’ issues have primarily been with his left shoulder.)