Article: Red Sox Spring Training Storylines: Who Will Be the Fifth Starter?

[Alexandra Tavaglione]

Heading into spring training, so many question marks surround the Red Sox roster. As camp kicks off, we'll be taking a look at some key storylines to follow through spring training. First and foremost, who takes the fifth starter role? 

Pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers in just a few days and there are so many questions about how this roster is going to look come opening day on March 27, particularly when it comes to the pitching staff.  One big storyline to pay attention to: Who is going to take the fifth starter spot?

We can assume that we will see Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, and Bryan Bello in the rotation, but what about Lucas Giolito and Kutter Crawford? Where do they fit in? Which one takes the fifth rotation spot? Crawford has spent time in both the rotation and the bullpen over the past few seasons, but Giolito has only ever started in his career. He is also coming off of an internal brace elbow surgery that kept him sidelined for the entirety of the 2024 season. Might that mean that he could slot into a bullpen role and use it as a way to limit his workload as he builds back up in his last year under contract with Boston?

Crawford’s splits as a reliever and a starter make this discussion even more interesting. Could these numbers be what determines his role in 2025? Because 2023 was the most recent season where both started and relieved, let’s use those numbers to compare.

Role	IP	HR/9	K%	BB%	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
As Starter	107.2	1.17	26.2	7.2	.295	69	4.51	3.80	4.31
As Reliever	21.2	1.25	22.2	4.9	.143	100	1.66	3.95	4.36

Crawford's 1.66 ERA was much better during his 21 2/3 innings as a reliever than the 4.51 ERA he put up during his 107 2/3 innings as a starter. However, that was a very short sample size, and the underlying numbers show that he was roughly the same pitcher, aside from some luck in terms of batted balls finding grass and stranding baserunners. But just for the sake of argument, let’s review what his numbers were in 2024, which was his only full year as a starter; every other year since his debut he has bounced between the bullpen and the rotation. In 2024, Crawford made 33 starts and posted a 4.36 ERA, striking out 23.1% of batters, walking 6.7%, and allowing 1.67 home runs per nine innings.

Now let's compare. In 2023, Giolito played for three separate teams and was traded twice, so to be fair, let's look at his numbers from 2022, his last full year with the White Sox. That season, he made 30 starts and ran a 4.90 ERA, struck out 25.4% of batters, walked 8.7%, and allowed 1.34 home runs per nine innings. However, over the prior three seasons, he averaged a 3.47 ERA, 1.20 home runs per nine, and a 30.7% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. His overall track record is significantly better than his 2022 season. But it has been three years since he was that kind of pitcher and now, especially coming off of elbow surgery, we don’t know what we can expect from him. Is he going to be the five-ERA guy who would probably be better suited in a bullpen role, or will he be the mid-threes-ERA guy who would be a perfect fifth starter? 

Now that we have looked at both pitchers' stats and have a general  idea of the types of pitchers that we’re comparing here, I think it’s a good time to start thinking about who should take that spot. 

With this information, I would say that it looks more like it will be Giolito getting the fifth starter spot in the rotation. He has a longer track record of being a solid starter who posts every fifth day, and according to the Boston Globe's Peter Abraham, he is already throwing in Florida and looks good. We have seen Crawford have success in a bullpen role, but of cours, injuries happen and can happen very early, so anything can change. 

These are all preliminary assumptions based track records; things can always change once they get going in camp. We will actually see them in action as they get working with Andrew Bailey and the rest of the coaching staff. Nonetheless, this is one major storyline to follow along as spring training kicks off and we begin the countdown to Opening Day.

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[moonslav59]

It looks like we might start the season with a 6 man rotation, but if everyone is healthy and doing fine, we will likely move to 5.

I think Crawford should be the pen's long man, when that happens.

[mvp 78]

Crawford is the odd man out pending a ST injury to one of the starting 5 which is not unlikely. 

[Zippo102]

I have never understood the love for Bello. Has he ever done anything to think he will ever be more than a forth or fifth starter? Why is automatically assumed that Kutter goes to the pen when his numbers across the board were better than Bello. He had a good season until he ran out of gas and still finished with better stats. Every time Bello takes the mound I cringe.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Zippo102 said:

I have never understood the love for Bello. Has he ever done anything to think he will ever be more than a forth or fifth starter? Why is automatically assumed that Kutter goes to the pen when his numbers across the board were better than Bello. He had a good season until he ran out of gas and still finished with better stats. Every time Bello takes the mound I cringe.

Bello gets the edge because he got the extension last year and had a strong second half. Does he deserve a rotation spot no matter what? No. 

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, Zippo102 said:

I have never understood the love for Bello. Has he ever done anything to think he will ever be more than a forth or fifth starter? Why is automatically assumed that Kutter goes to the pen when his numbers across the board were better than Bello. He had a good season until he ran out of gas and still finished with better stats. Every time Bello takes the mound I cringe.

He's projected to be just about average in 2025 - 2 to 2.5 WAR.  An average starter who takes the ball every 5 days is a definite asset.     

 

[Zippo102]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He's projected to be just about average in 2025 - 2 to 2.5 WAR.  An average starter who takes the ball every 5 days is a definite asset.     

 

Again,  Crawford's number's have been better for 2 consecutive years. Why the love? All you mentioned were projections. Who gives a rats ass about projections.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Zippo102 said:

I have never understood the love for Bello. Has he ever done anything to think he will ever be more than a forth or fifth starter? Why is automatically assumed that Kutter goes to the pen when his numbers across the board were better than Bello. He had a good season until he ran out of gas and still finished with better stats. Every time Bello takes the mound I cringe.

Taking the ball every 5 days is a value, especially to a team like the Sox, who have 80% of their pitchers with significant injury histories.

He places 30th in MLB in GS since 2023 with 58.

30th in IP at 319.

64th in fWAR is partially a result of so many IP, but that still is pretty good.

51st i xFIP an 3.94 and 66th in SIERA at 4.15.

Those are solid #3 numbers, which is not bad for a pitchers first two full seasons in MLB. I think some of the "love" is based on hopes that he progresses as he nears his prime years.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Zippo102 said:

Again,  Crawford's number's have been better for 2 consecutive years. Why the love? All you mentioned were projections. Who gives a rats ass about projections.

2023-2024:

HR/9: 0.79 Houck, 1.21 Bello, 1.47 Crawford

xFIP: 3.76 Houck, 3.94 Bello, 4.34 Crawford

ERA-:  87 Houck, 97 Crawford, 100 Bello

BAbip: .256 Crawford, .288 Houck, .305 Bello (Maybe some luck helped Crawford.)

Granted, Crawford leads in many more stats and metrics.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Zippo102 said:

Again,  Crawford's number's have been better for 2 consecutive years. Why the love? All you mentioned were projections. Who gives a rats ass about projections.

Frankly I'm not sure what you're talking about with the 'love' thing.  I don't think anyone 'loves' Bello the way you're going on about it.  Who cares if Crawford was a little better last year?  I'm glad we have both Bello and Crawford.  They're pretty similar, both around average, both have been durable, both good to have.

[Zippo102]

Great breakdown. I guess I'm just not onboard the Bello hype train. Kutter was pretty damn good in the first half, his ERA didn't hit 4.00 until August when he ran out of gas. He threw 183 innings last year compared to 129 the year before. Prior to that the most he threw was 143 but that was 2018. 

2019   88

2021   96

2022  101

Kutter's So9, K9, and BB9 have all been better than Bello's the last 2 years. Bello was better in the second half but his ERA was over 5.50 in June. 

[sk7326]

Crawford has had some terrific BABIP numbers, .247 last year, .269 the year before.  Bello has been .306 and .303 respectively, which is more in line what you'd expect.  That Crawford has over 200 IP at that level, does it mean he has a special ability to miss bats?  I don't know.

Crawford DEFINITELY had a problem with homeruns last year - and there was an uptick in the barrel rate last year per Statcast.  

The two have similar lines - but I do think the stuff and the age gap is enough for me to still have more hope for Bello to be an above average starter than Crawford.  

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

Crawford has had some terrific BABIP numbers, .247 last year, .269 the year before.  Bello has been .306 and .303 respectively, which is more in line what you'd expect.  That Crawford has over 200 IP at that level, does it mean he has a special ability to miss bats?  I don't know.

Crawford DEFINITELY had a problem with homeruns last year - and there was an uptick in the barrel rate last year per Statcast.  

The two have similar lines - but I do think the stuff and the age gap is enough for me to still have more hope for Bello to be an above average starter than Crawford.  

Crawford is an extreme fly ball pitcher 7th percentile GB rate.

Bello is a heave ground ball pitcher 86th percentile GB rate.

The reason that more balls that are put into play are outs for Crawford than Bello are because (a) the Sox IF defense has been poor which hurts Bello and (b) the Sox OF defense has been above average to great which helps Crawford.

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, Zippo102 said:

I have never understood the love for Bello. Has he ever done anything to think he will ever be more than a forth or fifth starter? Why is automatically assumed that Kutter goes to the pen when his numbers across the board were better than Bello. He had a good season until he ran out of gas and still finished with better stats. Every time Bello takes the mound I cringe.

He was also only 25 last year and was a ground ball pitcher was hurt the most by Bostons poor infield defense.  He has good offspeed stuff, velocity and age on his side.  Plenty of room for improvment. 

Think of it this way, the other guys who started games last year (Houck, Pivetta, Criswell, Crawford) were either in the minors, had awful seasons much worse than Bello around their age 25-27 seasons and then they got better.  Bello is still at that age where you can almost expect him to get better this season. 

As a young 25 year old he was better down the stretch.  In the 2nd half of the season he had a 3.47 ERA with a 1.2 WHIP.  He was as good if not better than everyone else in the rotation.  I'm not saying he will be much more than he is now, but at his age....I can't relate to the "cringe" thing.  

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Zippo102 said:

Great breakdown. I guess I'm just not onboard the Bello hype train. Kutter was pretty damn good in the first half, his ERA didn't hit 4.00 until August when he ran out of gas. He threw 183 innings last year compared to 129 the year before. Prior to that the most he threw was 143 but that was 2018. 

2019   88

2021   96

2022  101

Kutter's So9, K9, and BB9 have all been better than Bello's the last 2 years. Bello was better in the second half but his ERA was over 5.50 in June. 

Where is the "train?" Red thinks he may be our #2, but other than him, I think everyone thinks he's a decent 4/5 slot pitcher- similar to Crawford.

They both have areas, where they are better than the other, and overall, from '23-'24 Crawford leads in more categories, but the HR issues loom large.

July>SEP '24:

3.66 Bello (3.67 FIP suggests it was not a fluke) .662 OPS Against (.724 for season)

5.22 Crawford (5.31 suggests not bad luck) .735 OPSA (.702 for season is barely better than bello's.)

Recency matters to many posters.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like both Bello and Crawford better than Giolito, who hasn't been good since 2021.

2022-2024 WAR: Bello 5.1, Crawford 4.7, Giolito 2.1 (yes, he was unavailable last year -- but that certainly makes him less reliable).

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I like both Bello and Crawford better than Giolito, who hasn't been good since 2021.

2022-2024 WAR: Bello 5.1, Crawford 4.7, Giolito 2.1 (yes, he was unavailable last year -- but that certainly makes him less reliable).

Me, too. Gio has been good, at times, since 2021, but not for a full season.

2022: He was okay for his first 9 games (3.54 ERA.) He still  had a 4.06 FIP on the season, which was better than 4.42 over those first 9 games.

2023: 3.41 ERA after 16 GS (but 4.19 FIP) He was still at 3.85 at the end of July (22 GS)

Not great but close to Bello & Crawford numbers.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I like both Bello and Crawford better than Giolito, who hasn't been good since 2021.

2022-2024 WAR: Bello 5.1, Crawford 4.7, Giolito 2.1 (yes, he was unavailable last year -- but that certainly makes him less reliable).

He was decent at the start of '23 (2.9 bWAR in 21 GS). It fell apart when he switched teams and had personal issues. 

[notin]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I like both Bello and Crawford better than Giolito, who hasn't been good since 2021.

2022-2024 WAR: Bello 5.1, Crawford 4.7, Giolito 2.1 (yes, he was unavailable last year -- but that certainly makes him less reliable).

No idea about his 2022, but his 2023 was going well with Chicago - 3.79 ERA, 117 ERA+, 2.9 bWAR, and 131 K in 121 IP.  He fell apart through two team changes.  There were stories about divorce, and of course he wound up getting injured pretty quickly in ST last year.  It is possible some damage was already done.

I’m not worried too much if he’s actually healthy.  Of course the same applies to Buehler…

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Me, too. Gio has been good, at times, since 2021, but not for a full season.

2022: He was okay for his first 9 games (3.54 ERA.) He still  had a 4.06 FIP on the season, which was better than 4.42 over those first 9 games.

2023: 3.41 ERA after 16 GS (but 4.19 FIP) He was still at 3.85 at the end of July (22 GS)

Not great but close to Bello & Crawford numbers.

He was definitely seen as an innings eater prior to the injury. Now, I'm not really sure if he can do that. He's at the bottom of the rotation for me. They have a club option for 14M if he doesn't pitch 140+ innings this year. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

No idea about his 2022, but his 2023 was going well with Chicago - 3.79 ERA, 117 ERA+, 2.9 bWAR, and 131 K in 121 IP.  He fell apart through two team changes.  There were stories about divorce, and of course he wound up getting injured pretty quickly in ST last year.  It is possible some damage was already done.

I’m not worried too much of he’s actually healthy.  Of course the same applies to Buehler…

I feel more confident about Buehler only because he actually pitched last season. Maybe he was able to shake off the rust in '24 and is ready to be a bit better this time around. Gio may take a while to get his feet under him.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I feel more confident about Buehler only because he actually pitched last season. Maybe he was able to shake off the rust in '24 and is ready to be a bit better this time around. Gio may take a while to get his feet under him.

I can understand that.

Frankly with Giolito, Buehler and Crochet and their 4 combined torn ligaments, I’m not so sure 6 starters is even an option. Will all six ever be healthy simultaneously?

[mvp 78]

42 minutes ago, notin said:

I can understand that.

Frankly with Giolito, Buehler and Crochet and their 4 combined torn ligaments, I’m not so sure 6 starters is even an option. Will all six ever be healthy simultaneously?

We had six starters in Spring Training last season! We were down two by the end of April in '24. Will they all make it to Opening Day this time around? IDK. Better to have extra arms just in case which is why Breslow wants everyone stretched out. 

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, notin said:

I can understand that.

Frankly with Giolito, Buehler and Crochet and their 4 combined torn ligaments, I’m not so sure 6 starters is even an option. Will all six ever be healthy simultaneously?

I think the best we can hope for is that 5 are healthy, at any given time.

[Zippo102]

I am confident Crochet will be a beast next year the rest will all pitch in 2025(except Sandoval). That's the extent of my confidence.

[moonslav59]

Yes, counting on Sandoval in August is likely a no-go.

I can see Crochet, Houck, Bello and Crawford getting 27-33 GS. Maybe Buehler and Gio can get 24-30. The closer these 6 can combine to get 162 GS'd, the better we should be.  I'm not down on Criswell, Fitts, Priester and Dobbins, but we should expect better from our top 6.

In 2024, we had 13 different pitchers start 6 or 7 "opener games" and "pen games."

0 Giolito and 4 Whitlock, really set us back, but Houck (30) and Criswell (18) filled in well. We also got 6 GS from Wink, 4 from Fitts, 3 from Paxton and 1 from Priester.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Just start the year with a 6 man rotation, and by no later than the third time through* it'll be back to the normal 5.

* Yes, I know, even thinking that far out is optimistic.

That's probably the plan. If someone gets hurt, before 3 times, through we'll jump to a 5 man.

I think Criswell is slotted #7, for now, but that could change during ST'ing.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

That's probably the plan. If someone gets hurt, before 3 times, through we'll jump to a 5 man.

I think Criswell is slotted #7, for now, but that could change during ST'ing.

I deleted that post because I noticed it was a bit redundant LOL.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's probably the plan. If someone gets hurt, before 3 times, through we'll jump to a 5 man.

I think Criswell is slotted #7, for now, but that could change during ST'ing.

Criswell and Fitts are better 7 and 8 depth options than we've had in a LOOOOONG time. 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I deleted that post because I noticed it was a bit redundant LOL.

Don't start that trend. We'd have 75% less posts here!