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Pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers in just a few days and there are so many questions about how this roster is going to look come opening day on March 27, particularly when it comes to the pitching staff. One big storyline to pay attention to: Who is going to take the fifth starter spot?
We can assume that we will see Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, and Bryan Bello in the rotation, but what about Lucas Giolito and Kutter Crawford? Where do they fit in? Which one takes the fifth rotation spot? Crawford has spent time in both the rotation and the bullpen over the past few seasons, but Giolito has only ever started in his career. He is also coming off of an internal brace elbow surgery that kept him sidelined for the entirety of the 2024 season. Might that mean that he could slot into a bullpen role and use it as a way to limit his workload as he builds back up in his last year under contract with Boston?
Crawford’s splits as a reliever and a starter make this discussion even more interesting. Could these numbers be what determines his role in 2025? Because 2023 was the most recent season where both started and relieved, let’s use those numbers to compare.
| Role | IP | HR/9 | K% | BB% | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| As Starter | 107.2 | 1.17 | 26.2 | 7.2 | .295 | 69 | 4.51 | 3.80 | 4.31 |
| As Reliever | 21.2 | 1.25 | 22.2 | 4.9 | .143 | 100 | 1.66 | 3.95 | 4.36 |
Crawford's 1.66 ERA was much better during his 21 2/3 innings as a reliever than the 4.51 ERA he put up during his 107 2/3 innings as a starter. However, that was a very short sample size, and the underlying numbers show that he was roughly the same pitcher, aside from some luck in terms of batted balls finding grass and stranding baserunners. But just for the sake of argument, let’s review what his numbers were in 2024, which was his only full year as a starter; every other year since his debut he has bounced between the bullpen and the rotation. In 2024, Crawford made 33 starts and posted a 4.36 ERA, striking out 23.1% of batters, walking 6.7%, and allowing 1.67 home runs per nine innings.
Now let's compare. In 2023, Giolito played for three separate teams and was traded twice, so to be fair, let's look at his numbers from 2022, his last full year with the White Sox. That season, he made 30 starts and ran a 4.90 ERA, struck out 25.4% of batters, walked 8.7%, and allowed 1.34 home runs per nine innings. However, over the prior three seasons, he averaged a 3.47 ERA, 1.20 home runs per nine, and a 30.7% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. His overall track record is significantly better than his 2022 season. But it has been three years since he was that kind of pitcher and now, especially coming off of elbow surgery, we don’t know what we can expect from him. Is he going to be the five-ERA guy who would probably be better suited in a bullpen role, or will he be the mid-threes-ERA guy who would be a perfect fifth starter?
Now that we have looked at both pitchers' stats and have a general idea of the types of pitchers that we’re comparing here, I think it’s a good time to start thinking about who should take that spot.
With this information, I would say that it looks more like it will be Giolito getting the fifth starter spot in the rotation. He has a longer track record of being a solid starter who posts every fifth day, and according to the Boston Globe's Peter Abraham, he is already throwing in Florida and looks good. We have seen Crawford have success in a bullpen role, but of cours, injuries happen and can happen very early, so anything can change.
These are all preliminary assumptions based track records; things can always change once they get going in camp. We will actually see them in action as they get working with Andrew Bailey and the rest of the coaching staff. Nonetheless, this is one major storyline to follow along as spring training kicks off and we begin the countdown to Opening Day.
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