Morosi: Cardinals, Red Sox Have Had "Recent Communication" Regarding Nolan Arenado

[Matthew Lenz]

Aside from acquiring Garrett Crochet, it's been a fairly quiet offseason for the Boston Red Sox. After reportedly being "in the mix" on Alex Bregman over the last couple of weeks, Jon Morosi of MLB Network is reporting that they have had "recent communication" with the St. Louis Cardinals regarding Nolan Arenado.

There doesn't seem to be any clear indication on what this means for the Red Sox and Bregman but, as Morosi points out, a trade before Bregman signing would have implications on his market.

Rumors have been swirling around the Red Sox pair of corner infielders, particularly Triston Casas being the subject of trade rumors. Any acquisition of a third basemen would almost assuredly put the nail in the coffin for Casas in Red Sox uniform as Rafael Devers would shift over to first base.

The Cardinals have been looking to shed salary as they look towards a multi-year rebuild. They owe Arenado $64MM over the next three seasons: $27MM this year, $22MM in 2026, and $15MM in 2027.

Do you think the Red Sox should make a move for Arenado or stay in the fight for Bregman?

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[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to be serious about this stuff when you have a lot of doubt that the team is serious about it.  You'd think if there was a deal to be made it should have happened before this.  Not sure what changed to put it back on the table.

Seems like the Sox just want some rumors out there to keep us entertained while the clock runs out on the offseason.

[mvp 78]

He slugged under 400 last year and may only be a 2 win player going forward solely because of his glove. It's a move, but one I'm not super thrilled about. I'd rather they were able to sign Bregman for 3 years, but this is definitely the cheap way to go. Any trade should not include top 20 prospects or anyone that has real value since his contract is underwater at this point. 

[Hitch]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He slugged under 400 last year and may only be a 2 win player going forward solely because of his glove. It's a move, but one I'm not super thrilled about. I'd rather they were able to sign Bregman for 3 years, but this is definitely the cheap way to go. Any trade should not include top 20 prospects or anyone that has real value since his contract is underwater at this point. 

I'd be pretty happy with it just for the monumental leap in defence we'd get at 3rd base. I also think his bat would be reinvigorated at Fenway.  

I'd prefer this all day over getting Bregman and then inexplicably playing him at 2nd base. 

Arenado to 3rd base. Devers and Casas share 1st/DH to keep them a bit more healthy, and try not to catch Yoshida's eyeline all year. Works for me. 

Edit to add: totally agree that little should be given up. This is a salary dump by Cardinals. 

[mvp 78]

People have suggested a Mike Lowell bounceback comparison for Arenado, but Arenado is older than when Lowell first came to Boston and Lowell's offensive and defensive production died on the vine when he was 35 ('26 for Arenado). Are people just wishcasting for one good season out of Arenado? Arenado already had that bounceback season in '22. Why would he have another one 3 years later? 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

I also think his bat would be reinvigorated at Fenway.  

Per Statcast: 272 career HR, 214 projected at Fenway. Why would he be reinvigorated? 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Per Statcast: 272 career HR, 214 projected at Fenway. Why would he be reinvigorated? 

They project that had he played his games at Fenway rather than Busch Stadium he'd have hit 58 less HR's?

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hitch said:

They project that had he played his games at Fenway rather than Busch Stadium he'd have hit 58 less HR's?

It includes every HR his hit at every park everywhere. 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

It includes every HR his hit at every park everywhere. 

I may be wrong, but I find it difficult to believe a guy who hit 104 of his 106 HR's with the Cardinals to left/left centre wouldn't find Fenway Park's 310-foot Green Monster a better fit than Busch Stadium's 336-foot and 375-foot walls in left field?

Maybe his doubles jump through the roof, but I can't see how he projects to be worse.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hitch said:

I may be wrong, but I find it difficult to believe a guy who hit 104 of his 106 HR's with the Cardinals to left/left centre wouldn't find Fenway Park's 310-foot Green Monster a better fit than Busch Stadium's 336-foot and 375-foot walls in left field?

Maybe his doubles jump through the roof, but I can't see how he projects to be worse.

They calculate it based on the actual loft of the ball. If it wouldn't clear the monster, it's not counted as a HR. Maybe he'd hit more 2b's? Maybe he'd continue to slug under 400 because he's middle aged and his bat is slowing down?

[Hitch]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They calculate it based on the actual loft of the ball. If it wouldn't clear the monster, it's not counted as a HR. Maybe he'd hit more 2b's? Maybe he'd continue to slug under 400 because he's middle aged and his bat is slowing down?

Fair enough. He's obviously aging and his bat speed will tail if it hasn't already, but it wouldn't be the first time we've seen a player come alive after a change of scenery, and he's a proper pull heavy hitter so that 310 should suit if he has any life left (I'm choosing to be optimistic).

It's certainly not my first choice of moves, but if it's between him and 4/5 years of Bregman at 2nd base, I prefer this move all day long. 

[Larry Cook]

Devers 3rd base defense is a dumpster fire. 
devers at DH and occasional 3rd or 1st base has to be a significant improvement defensively!!!

Is having arenado at 3rd and devers at DH, better for the team than devers at 3rd and yoshida at DH???? 
 

[moonslav59]

He's a good glove, but his bat will be worse then Yoshida's over the next 3 years.

STL should pay 30% of his deal, minimum, to just break even and get nothing worth anything, IMO.

If we give them Yoshida, who they don't need, and pay about half his contract, that would equal the 30%.

Mullins & Yoshida and $8M x 3 (tops) for Arenado. (I'm not even sure I like this deal.)

On hitting in Fenway: it's not just about the wall and HRs. It's about a big RF and great sight backdrop for seeing pitches.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Devers 3rd base defense is a dumpster fire. 
devers at DH and occasional 3rd or 1st base has to be a significant improvement defensively!!!

Is having arenado at 3rd and devers at DH, better for the team than devers at 3rd and yoshida at DH???? 
 

I still think there is a good chance Devers can become a better defensive 1Bman than Casas by mid season. If not, then yes, DH him almost all the time, except when Arenado or Casas needs a day off.

[Bellhorn04]

Last we heard Devers and his agent were taking a pretty firm stance that he was staying at third for the time being.  Hard to imagine that this late in the game they're going to shuffle up the infield and deal with Devers on it before Opening Day.  But who knows with this front office.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They calculate it based on the actual loft of the ball. If it wouldn't clear the monster, it's not counted as a HR. Maybe he'd hit more 2b's? Maybe he'd continue to slug under 400 because he's middle aged and his bat is slowing down?

StatCast spray charts do not take the height of the wall into account.

Vaughn Grissom’s spray charts show one hit he has was a clear home run to left center on the Fenway overlay.  But those dots are links to videos of the hit (I did not know this), and that ball that should have landed well behind the monster was actually hit AT FENWAY and struck the wall 2/3 of the way up for a double…

[notin]

Arenado certainly could make the infield defense better, but he’s a step down offensively from Yoshida…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I might be for this acquisition because it would signify an actual change in the defensive structure, which would mean the Sox really are serious about improving their chances at contending.

Moving Devers off the hot corner would also be a hell of a lot easier if it's for an all-time Gold Glover whose seven-year peak is better than the average Hall of Fame third baseman (according to bb-ref). 

The plan may be all for the transition. If Arenado sucks, it will be a lot easier to replace him with a super duper prospect like Campbell or Mayer -- rather than the awkward situation of one of them bumping our veteran $300 million dollar manchild.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Arenado certainly could make the infield defense better, but he’s a step down offensively from Yoshida…

Agreed, but opening up the DH slot for Casas and or Devers can help keep them healthier and "fresher,: which would hopefully lead to more PAs per season.

I'm really afraid Arenado might hit .650 in '25, .620 in '26 and maybe worse in '27. His bat speed has nosedived.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I might be for this acquisition because it would signify an actual change in the defensive structure, which would mean the Sox really are serious about improving their chances at contending.

Moving Devers off the hot corner would also be a hell of a lot easier if it's for an all-time Gold Glover whose seven-year peak is better than the average Hall of Fame third baseman (according to bb-ref). 

The plan may be all for the transition. If Arenado sucks, it will be a lot easier to replace him with a super duper prospect like Campbell or Mayer -- rather than the awkward situation of one of them bumping our veteran $300 million dollar manchild.

Unless they take Yoshida and cash as part of the deal, I don't want us to add another Yoshida, even if Arenado improves the D at 3B.

[notin]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but opening up the DH slot for Casas and or Devers can help keep them healthier and "fresher,: which would hopefully lead to more PAs per season.

I'm really afraid Arenado might hit .650 in '25, .620 in '26 and maybe worse in '27. His bat speed has nosedived.

With his $75mill left on 3 years, the Sox will have over $120mill in Arenado and Yoshida.  As much as I want the defensive upgrade, I think leaving Yoshida as the DH does a better job addressing one of the Sox deficiencies…

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

With his $75mill left on 3 years, the Sox will have over $120mill in Arenado and Yoshida.  As much as I want the defensive upgrade, I think leaving Yoshida as the DH does a better job addressing one of the Sox deficiencies…

They say with deferrals and the COL payments, Arenado's contract is really 60 something million.

I would not pay him that as a FA. Why would I give any prospect for him?

[Bellhorn04]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

With his $75mill left on 3 years, the Sox will have over $120mill in Arenado and Yoshida.  As much as I want the defensive upgrade, I think leaving Yoshida as the DH does a better job addressing one of the Sox deficiencies…

Wouldn't Casas at DH be better?

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Wouldn't Casas at DH be better?

I'm thinking Devers could play 1B better than Casas, after just a few weeks. His main issue is the arm accuracy.

Plus, he seems to want to play in the field vs DH'ing, so maybe 1B would keep him a little bit happier.

[Bellhorn04]

59 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They say with deferrals and the COL payments, Arenado's contract is really 60 something million.

I would not pay him that as a FA. Why would I give any prospect for him?

All depends on exactly what other pieces and financial arrangements are involved.  Could be a mid-level prospect that balances things out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Have to think the hold-up all winter is Breslow insisting on Bloom taking back Yoshida. If the Cards really want to make a deal, that may now be their only choice. Perhaps subsidies going one way or the other are being negotiated... 

Notice I didn't call Yoshida "Bloom's Binkie" or "Bloom's Abomination" -- because even though he was CBO at the time of the signing, there are a ton of other front office peeps that are somehow still here... after that happened on their watch.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Wouldn't Casas at DH be better?

Casas is the lineup regardless.  It comes down to Yoshida vs Arenado, because if the Sox do acquire Arenado, it pushes Yoshida out of the lineup.  Arenado should improve the defense. Yoshida will be better on offense.

I’m not sure which one makes for a better overall team…

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

Casas is the lineup regardless.  It comes down to Yoshida vs Arenado, because if the Sox do acquire Arenado, it pushes Yoshida out of the lineup.  Arenado should improve the defense. Yoshida will be better on offense.

I’m not sure which one makes for a better overall team…

Gasp... or Yoshida plays LF, Duran CF and Abreu-Rafaela RF.

Gulp- Gasp-Gulp!

[moonslav59]

Any aging player can have a resurgence, but I just don't see one for Arenado.

Last 3 OPS: .891>.774>.719

He turns 35 in a couple months.

As much as I'd love to see our 3B defense improve, at what price would this come to?

Our offense would almost certainly take a hit, and we are already shaking our heads at no O'Neal replacement,

Our budget would almost certainly take some hit, and we can't even afford to pay Grichuk or Lareano $4-5M/1, as it is.

Either STL has to pay a big chunk of his deal, or they have to take Yoshida and some cash. I guess they could add Helsley or Murphy and change the whole dynamic, but I doubt that happens.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Any aging player can have a resurgence, but I just don't see one for Arenado.

Last 3 OPS: .891>.774>.719

He turns 35 in a couple months.

He turns 35 in about 15 months.