Article: The Red Sox Have Bet On Connor Wong; What Improvements Can He Make To Justify That Bet?

[drewski6]

I dont think any catcher could be the steal of the winter.  I think 90% of catchers can be lumped in with each other.

Could be wrong

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Its Crochet.

Very well may be, especially since it will take years to see the value we gave up for him.

I never said Narvaez was the front-runner for "steal of the year," and it's possible nobody deserves the award.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think any catcher could be the steal of the winter.  I think 90% of catchers can be lumped in with each other.

Could be wrong

One reason I mentioned him as a candidate for the award is that we gave up very little for him, and that is part of the equation for it being called a "steal."

We also have a great need for a catcher, beyond just back -up. Any one of the 3 new catchers we added will have a chance to step in and get a look, if they do well.

The bar is so low for the catching position, after 2024, that just an average catcher could win the award running away.

[drewski6]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

One reason I mentioned him as a candidate for the award is that we gave up very little for him, and that is part of the equation for it being called a "steal."

We also have a great need for a catcher, beyond just back -up. Any one of the 3 new catchers we added will have a chance to step in and get a look, if they do well.

The bar is so low for the catching position, after 2024, that just an average catcher could win the award running away.

If an average C turns out to be our steal of the winter, even factoring in acquisition cost, I have a hard time believing we're finishing higher than third place.

I dont think going from Wong to average C moves the needle that much, personally.

But the outcome is possible.

I think 1 of 3 things happen:

1. Crochet is a cy young candidate

2. We make aggressive in season moves

3. We arent serious contenders (but may sneak into playoffs because I think the AL is painfully weak)

[drewski6]

The RS upcoming season feels a lot like "you dont need to be able to outrun a lion, just outrun the other dudes also running from the lion."

We dont have to be good, just stink less than the other mediocre teams in the AL (to make the playoffs). From that lens, I can see a good defensive c making an impact, but they shouldnt.  Its like joining a league where nobody else knows what they are doing and then just making it into the playoffs. Its like congrats but it shouldnt have been that close.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If an average C turns out to be our steal of the winter, even factoring in acquisition cost, I have a hard time believing we're finishing higher than third place.

I dont think going from Wong to average C moves the needle that much, personally.

But the outcome is possible.

I think 1 of 3 things happen:

1. Crochet is a cy young candidate

2. We make aggressive in season moves

3. We arent serious contenders (but may sneak into playoffs because I think the AL is painfully weak)

I think greatly improving catcher defense can make a big difference, and how a catcher works with the staff is often overlooked, when valuing their impact on a team.

On the batting side of Catching, Narvaez is not projected to be that good, despite some decent power and OBP numbers on the farm, but if he does do average, it would be a very big boost from 2024.

.465 McGuire in 158 PAs

.623 Jansen in 96 PAs 

That is over 250 PAs that can be greatly improved upon and could have significant impact on our 2025 results, beyond an improved defense. We were -14 DRS for catching, last year, and Wong finished poorly in many categories. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

One reason I mentioned him as a candidate for the award is that we gave up very little for him, and that is part of the equation for it being called a "steal."

But the other side of the equation is that the Yankees are unlikely to hand us a great catching prospect for nothing.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But the other side of the equation is that the Yankees are unlikely to hand us a great catching prospect for nothing.

True, hence the chance for a "steal."

It would not be a steal if we gave up Anthony for a catcher that does much better than McGuire/Jansen.

I realize that Crochet has the better chance for a great impact, but we gave up a lot and the expectations are high, to begin with.

I think people are confusing the word Steal with who will do better.

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True, hence the chance for a "steal."

It would not be a steal if we gave up Anthony for a catcher that does much better than McGuire/Jansen.

I realize that Crochet has the better chance for a great impact, but we gave up a lot and the expectations are high, to begin with.

I think people are confusing the word Steal with who will do better.

It's hard to see any apples to apples comparisons that could be made.

I'm just naturally dubious that the Yankees would be so generous as to give us a steal, but it would be nice.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's hard to see any apples to apples comparisons that could be made.

I'm just naturally dubious that the Yankees would be so generous as to give us a steal, but it would be nice.

When I'm talking about a steal, it does not mean someone wins the MVP award. Why were the Yanks so generous to leave Whitlock unprotected for us to "steal" away from them? Things happen for varying reasons.

We've had "steals" in the past from the waiver wire, like Schreiber in '21 and Bernardino in '23. Maybe these guys were not the "Steal of the year," but they were moves that outshined the cost to get him.

One could claim O'Neill was the steal from last winter.  He did not cost much to get, and his salary was cheap for what we got.

Was the Nate for Beeks trade a "steal?" Maybe we are just arguing semantics.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When I'm talking about a steal, it does not mean someone wins the MVP award. Why were the Yanks so generous to leave Whitlock unprotected for us to "steal" away from them? Things happen for varying reasons.

We've had "steals" in the past from the waiver wire, like Schreiber in '21 and Bernardino in '23. Maybe these guys were not the "Steal of the year," but they were moves that outshined the cost to get him.

One could claim O'Neill was the steal from last winter.  He did not cost much to get, and his salary was cheap for what we got.

Was the Nate for Beeks trade a "steal?" Maybe we are just arguing semantics.

It's all jibber jabber to pass the time.  I just think we don't have very much information on which to base calling Narvaez a steal at this point.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's all jibber jabber to pass the time.  I just think we don't have very much information on which to base calling Narvaez a steal at this point.

It’s just more, or less wishful thinking since the Red Sox are real thin at the C position.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's all jibber jabber to pass the time.  I just think we don't have very much information on which to base calling Narvaez a steal at this point.

I never called him a steal.

I said he could be the steal of the year.

Part of the reason is that our Catcher D sucks, and he offers promise in that area.

Our back-up catcher O was around .600. That leaves some room for improvement.

Yes, it is just jibber jabber, as there is not much else to talk about.

Here is something else to talk about: Jovani Moran might be the "steal of the winter."

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I never called him a steal.

I said he could be the steal of the year.

Part of the reason is that our Catcher D sucks, and he offers promise in that area.

Our back-up catcher O was around .600. That leaves some room for improvement.

Yes, it is just jibber jabber, as there is not much else to talk about.

Here is something else to talk about: Jovani Moran might be the "steal of the winter."

Is this something like a steal on the Voice? Will there be an award presentation at the end of the year?👏

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Is this something like a steal on the Voice? Will there be an award presentation at the end of the year?👏

More like when you stole that bag of Cheetos from the corner store.

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's hard to see any apples to apples comparisons that could be made.

I'm just naturally dubious that the Yankees would be so generous as to give us a steal, but it would be nice.

Yankees also had much better depth at Catcher than the Sox. I think clearing up his 40 man roster spot so they could bring in some higher priced players was more important to them than working on a guy whose ceiling is MLB backup Catcher.