Red Sox Among Front-Runners To Sign Third Baseman Alex Bregman

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

If by any miracle the SOX could land Jones, Teoscar and Scott, I'd be shocked, but at the same time very happy.

Jones?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Jones?

Jared Jones. 23 yr old flame thrower starter who the Pirates are willing to trade for the right offensive parts. I'm guessing from what Pittsburgh is saying that Abreu and Mayer would get that trade done.

He averages about 11 K's per nine innings.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Jared Jones. 23 yr old flame thrower starter who the Pirates are willing to trade for the right offensive parts. I'm guessing from what Pittsburgh is saying that Abreu and Mayer would get that trade done.

He averages about 11 K's per nine innings.

I'm not so sure about that return package, but if Jones is all he's cracked up to be, I would. Hard to know for sure, but we don't know about Mayer, either, of if Abreu ever learns to hit lefties.

On the surface, I think I'd say yes. Of course, I would first try a package without a top 3 prospect, but why would PIT say yes to...

Abreu, DHam and two from Perales, Arias, Bleis or Cespedes (Romero, if they leave us Arias.) Even three or four from the Perales, Bleis, Cespedes, Romero or a Garcia brother would likely not be enough.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

If by any miracle the SOX could land Jones, Teoscar and Scott, I'd be shocked, but at the same time very happy.

Even without Scott of Hoffman, I'd be thrilled. (Maybe an Estevez type signing)

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not so sure about that return package, but if Jones is all he's cracked up to be, I would. Hard to know for sure, but we don't know about Mayer, either, of if Abreu ever learns to hit lefties.

On the surface, I think I'd say yes. Of course, I would first try a package without a top 3 prospect, but why would PIT say yes to...

Abreu, DHam and two from Perales, Arias, Bleis or Cespedes (Romero, if they leave us Arias.) Even three or four from the Perales, Bleis, Cespedes, Romero or a Garcia brother would likely not be enough.

Why would PITT take Abreu and a hodgepodge of guys for a pitcher who has shown he's at least a middle rotation guy? That they would take Abreu and Mayer seems like an underpay to me. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Why would PITT take Abreu and a hodgepodge of guys for a pitcher who has shown he's at least a middle rotation guy? That they would take Abreu and Mayer seems like an underpay to me. 

So BTV is useless after all.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No Scrooge for you! (editing headline for veracity):

Red Sox Among Stunt-Runners to Sign Soto

Red Sox Among Punt-Kickers to Sign Anyone Else of Interest

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So BTV is useless after all.

BTV will sometimes throw out trades that are 5 for 1 if the hodgepodge has very low value players. I don't know what it would say about moon's trade. Now that it's a pay for play site, I don't bother with it. 

[notin]

7 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Jared Jones. 23 yr old flame thrower starter who the Pirates are willing to trade for the right offensive parts. I'm guessing from what Pittsburgh is saying that Abreu and Mayer would get that trade done.

He averages about 11 K's per nine innings.

9.8 K/9 last year….

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

BTV will sometimes throw out trades that are 5 for 1 if the hodgepodge has very low value players. I don't know what it would say about moon's trade. Now that it's a pay for play site, I don't bother with it. 

I think drewski posted that BTV showed a fair swap would be Jones for Abreu plus another player with a +10 surplus.  It seemed a bit light in the real world.

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

BTV will sometimes throw out trades that are 5 for 1 if the hodgepodge has very low value players. I don't know what it would say about moon's trade. 

The only surprising thing about this proposal from moon was that he left out Wink.  Usually he bundles Abreu, DHam and Wink.

[notin]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So BTV is useless after all.

Or maybe some people are assuming the best for a pitcher with a 4.74 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in AAA…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think drewski posted that BTV showed a fair swap would be Jones for Abreu plus another player with a +10 surplus.  It seemed a bit light in the real world.

In the real world, the pitcher market is HOT. BTV can't account for that. It's strictly value per WAR on the contract vs $'s left to pay and teams may not look at trades that way. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The only surprising thing about this proposal from moon was that he left out Wink.  Usually he bundles Abreu, DHam and Wink.

I'm surprised people aren't adding Perales to more trades on here since he's on the 40 man and injured. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Or maybe some people are assuming the best for a pitcher with a 4.74 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in AAA…

I mean, I don't know what people would expect from a pitcher who turned 21 in AAA. Seems like he was holding his own well enough for a high school guy.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why would PITT take Abreu and a hodgepodge of guys for a pitcher who has shown he's at least a middle rotation guy? That they would take Abreu and Mayer seems like an underpay to me. 

I asked that exact same question in this post you responded to.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The only surprising thing about this proposal from moon was that he left out Wink.  Usually he bundles Abreu, DHam and Wink.

LOL, so true.

[notin]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I mean, I don't know what people would expect from a pitcher who turned 21 in AAA. Seems like he was holding his own well enough for a high school guy.

BTV is drawing his value from various projections like Steamer, ZiPS, etc.  and gave him a surplus of $40.4mill.  So what are those sites projecting for him?  And at what salaries?  I assume those folks are fully aware of his age.

Personally I think he’s not as available as folks want him to be.  Mitch Keller, also rumored, feels like the guy they move…

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

In the real world, the pitcher market is HOT. BTV can't account for that. It's strictly value per WAR on the contract vs $'s left to pay and teams may not look at trades that way. 

Sure it can.  That’s probably why Luis Castillo’s surplus value has jumped about $30million in the past 5 months…

[drewski6]

12 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

I'm reading in various articles that Bregman could want somewhere in the neighborhood of 185m/7 years.

It's free agency so that could easily escalate to 190-200m based on the bidding.

I'm so ready for our owners to 'fall short' of the highest bid again. But let's see.

Adding a gold glove to the hot corner and kicking Devers to 1st would improve both our offense and defense in one move.

In this scenario Casas would become expendable in a trade for more pitching.

If the Red Sox sign Bregman for 190 and Burnes for 225, they will have spent half the money they earmarked for Soto, and still improved the team a decent amount. No these aren't headline superstar signings, but they would make the team more competitive going forward.

I agree with most. Id be a little shy to deal Casas immediately, especially if we are signing Breg and Burnes.

My only issue with this post is the last sentence.  Bregman and Burnes are both superstar signings.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

BTV will sometimes throw out trades that are 5 for 1 if the hodgepodge has very low value players. I don't know what it would say about moon's trade. Now that it's a pay for play site, I don't bother with it. 

Thats a punt itself. But I do agree that often fans just think that if you include 10 guys with 1 surplus value you can get a guy for 9 surplus value ("Im being fair, we are giving up 10 units and only getting back 9") - and thats just fan talk.

Certainly a premium on real talent.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think drewski posted that BTV showed a fair swap would be Jones for Abreu plus another player with a +10 surplus.  It seemed a bit light in the real world.

I did and thanks for reading. And thats why I proposed it.  Thinking was "Abreu gets us within 10 units of Jones (per BTV), maybe Abreu can headline a trade for Jones"

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

BTV is drawing his value from various projections like Steamer, ZiPS, etc.  and gave him a surplus of $40.4mill.  So what are those sites projecting for him?  And at what salaries?  I assume those folks are fully aware of his age.

Personally I think he’s not as available as folks want him to be.  Mitch Keller, also rumored, feels like the guy they move…

I was kind of referring more to players that haven't appeared in MLB yet than guys like Jared Jones. I'm unsure how they calculate salaries though. 

Jones apparently became more available after they saw what Crochet was traded for. Keller is a good pitcher, but I wouldn't give up a ton for him. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Or maybe some people are assuming the best for a pitcher with a 4.74 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in AAA…

89 mph slider with a 44% whiff rate. Still very young..

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I was kind of referring more to players that haven't appeared in MLB yet than guys like Jared Jones. I'm unsure how they calculate salaries though. 

Jones apparently became more available after they saw what Crochet was traded for. Keller is a good pitcher, but I wouldn't give up a ton for him. 

I’m sure there are some sites that project arbitration and free agent salaries.  Of course there’s some balance because of those salaries get too high, it increases the value of the WAR that they are countering.

Crochet’s trade worked out really well on the BTV model.  Some trades dont.  Kyle Tucker’s recent deal, for example, was a massive overpass by the Cubs on that model.  A trade off Jones might beas well, but that’s going to happen every so often.  The simple math they use can’t accommodate what tans feel their players are worth and what it will take to pay them away

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I was kind of referring more to players that haven't appeared in MLB yet than guys like Jared Jones. I'm unsure how they calculate salaries though. 

Jones apparently became more available after they saw what Crochet was traded for. Keller is a good pitcher, but I wouldn't give up a ton for him. 

"Apparently" is a key word, but yes, 100%.  If the Pirates are actually listening to offers for Jones and the BTV price is semi-accurate (Abreu + Hamilton) - this is why he caught my eye.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Sure it can.  That’s probably why Luis Castillo’s surplus value has jumped about $30million in the past 5 months…

If they are really updating it offseason week to week, then what is the metric aside from player value and $$$? Are they just WAGing it? Again, it's just a fun toy and isn't a direct correlation to real life. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I’m sure there are some sites that project arbitration and free agent salaries.  Of course there’s some balance because of those salaries get too high, it increases the value of the WAR that they are countering…

Im sure BTV does. The question is how accurate. But to calculate surplus trade value , you would of course have to factor in that players salary, his projected future salary (arb years) and the opportunity cost (cost of replacement on FA market). Otherwise, you are just making up numbers.

But Im not the one to ask if BTV's algo does it well

[notin]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

"Apparently" is a key word, but yes, 100%.  If the Pirates are actually listening to offers for Jones and the BTV price is semi-accurate (Abreu + Hamilton) - this is why he caught my eye.

At some point, what BTV cannot account for is what Pittsburgh thinks of those players…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im sure BTV does. The question is how accurate. But to calculate surplus trade value , you would of course have to factor in that players salary, his projected future salary (arb years) and the opportunity cost (cost of replacement on FA market). Otherwise, you are just making up numbers.

But Im not the one to ask if BTV's algo does it well

I doubt they figure the cost of replacing the player.  And why should they?  Abreu’s trade value isn’t affected at all by the presence of Roman Anthony.   That might influence Boston’s desire to move him, but it doesn’t make him a better or cheaper player…