Article: Hear Me Out: The Red Sox Shouldn’t Trade Anybody

[Davy Andrews]

Why spend prospect capital when you've got actual capital to spend?

This week, several of our writers have been putting themselves in Craig Breslow’s shoes and sharing how they’d like the Red Sox to navigate this pivotal offseason. There’s talk of free-agent signings. There’s talk of trading young stars and even younger prospects. I’d like to make my own proposal, and it’s pretty simple: Don’t trade anybody. The Red Sox don’t trade the big four. The Red Sox don’t trade Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu or Triston Casas. They just keep all those good, young cost-controlled players right where they are. They accept that the lineup is a little lefty-heavy. They go out and sign a catcher and a couple starting pitchers. They sign a corner outfielder on a one-year deal and if there’s money left over, maybe even a middle infielder. I have my own opinions about which free agents would make sense in Boston, but that’s a discussion for another day. Right now, I just want to explain why I think holding onto all that young talent makes sense.

Yes, doing so means the team wouldn’t be able to land Garrett Crochet, which would be a bummer. But multiple frontline starters are available in free agency – players with a longer track record of performance and better injury history than Crochet – and all they cost is money. Sam Kennedy said yesterday that the team is prepared to spend enough to put the team into luxury tax territory this offseason, which is wonderful. Still, the reality in today’s game is that no team, not even the Dodgers, is willing to spend enough money to build an entire competitive team at full market value. You need young, cost-controlled players, which also means that you need to hold onto your prospects so that you’ll have young, cost-controlled players in the future too. It’s definitely possible to prop the window open by landing high-priced veterans either in free agency or by trading prospects, but that path leaves teams vulnerable to a crash afterward. The 2019 Nationals serve as an example of this, and the Astros look likely to serve as another in the near future. There’s no reason for the Red Sox to act like one of those teams, especially not right now. They should be thinking like the Astros of seven or eight years ago, whose thrilling crop of young stars allowed them to bring in aces like Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, rounding out the roster without breaking the bank or blowing up the farm.

Statistically speaking, one or two of the big four probably won’t work out at the big-league level. That’s just how things work. So give them time, have them start the season in Worcester, and let them force their way into the major-league lineup when they’re ready. When Roman Anthony makes it to Boston, set up a time-share between Abreu and Rafaela, where Abreu sits against most lefties (yes, I know Rafaela struggles against lefties too) and Duran slides over to center against most righties. Rafaela would be a bit overpaid and overqualified as the small side of a platoon and an ace defensive replacement, but that’s the luxury of having money. When you look at the roster of the Dodgers, it's easy to marvel at all the big names at the top of the roster, but the Dodgers also flexed their checkbook by building tons of depth, enough to survive injuries and make sure that their lineup didn't have any holes in it.

Catchers progress more slowly than other players, so signing a veteran catcher on short-term deal gives Kyle Teel time to grow without blocking him whenever he’s ready. If the team doesn’t sign a middle infielder, second base will be a black hole on the roster to start the season. However, either Marcelo Mayer or Kristian Campbell is likely to earn a promotion within the first couple months of the season, at which point they’d have a chance to claim the job.

The players who don’t force their way up to Boston will still be in the organization and still be highly regarded. That would leave them available to be traded at the deadline when the Red Sox will have a better idea of their roster needs down the stretch. If this model sounds familiar, it’s because it’s similar to what the Orioles have been doing. The Orioles were accused for years of prospect-hoarding as they held onto their seemingly inexhaustible supply of apple-cheeked up-and-comers, but once a few of those prospects had broken through onto the big-league roster, they traded players like Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and Connor Norby to shore up the weak spots. Those players were no longer at their absolute maximum trade value, but they were still able to bring value back to Baltimore, and the team ran a much lower risk of trading away a future superstar.

To be clear, I’m not saying the Red Sox shouldn’t be exploring trade possibilities or listening to trade offers. They should obviously be open to moves that make sense with the roster they want to build. It’s just that right now, they’ve got a solid core and money to spend. Why spend the future instead?

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[moonslav59]

This has been a long-standing point made by many, including myself, but until we actually see JH open his wallet, again, I think we will continue thinking of trades.

We also will have a glut of talent and only 13 slots on the ML roster for our wealth of positional players. To me, it makes sense, even if we spend big to add to the 26, we can think a trade or two can fix some of our weaker areas (pen & rotation) by trading duplicated values on the positional side of the 40 and the farm.

[Bellhorn04]

They should only trade from the places we have a legit surplus.  Which we do have in the outfield and middle infield.

[sk7326]

Trade where it makes sense.  If the Red Sox landed Soto, then there is room to trade one of the better prospects, including Casas.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They should only trade from the places we have a legit surplus.  Which we do have in the outfield and middle infield.

Agreed. Our catching depth is not very good, beyond Wong and Teel, and Wong's defense needs vast improvement, and Teel is just a prospect.

Corner IF is very weak on depth. Meidroth offers hope, and moving a middle IF'er to 3B could be good enough, but yes, OF and MI seem to be over-loaded. The middle IF part seems strange, since 2B and SS have been one of our weakest areas, even when we had Bogey.

OF: Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, Refsnyder/Yoshida (DH)/ Campbell, Montgomery, Bleis, Valdez (?,) Jh Garcia, Castro, Cespedes (?) Taylor, Ehrhard, Fermin, Brito, Turner

MIF: Story, Campbell, Mayer, DHam, Grissom, Romy, Meidroth, Sogard, Valdez/ Romero, Arias, Cespedes, Cason, Riemer, Anderson, Alcantara, Nunez, Pinto

 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

Trade where it makes sense.  If the Red Sox landed Soto, then there is room to trade one of the better prospects, including Casas.

Casas, onlyh if we move Devers to 1B and have faith that Campbell, Mayer, Grissom can play 3B. (All should be better on D than Devers is.)

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Casas, onlyh if we move Devers to 1B and have faith that Campbell, Mayer, Grissom can play 3B. (All should be better on D than Devers is.)

Grissom? I don't know why everyone is talking about Grissom when Meidroth is right there...

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Grissom? I don't know why everyone is talking about Grissom when Meidroth is right there...

I should have included Meidroth, despite not being on the 40, but I still think Grissom's name at 3B should be included.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Grissom? I don't know why everyone is talking about Grissom when Meidroth is right there...

You could flip flop those two names in that last sentence and it makes just as much sense.

Not to mention, Grissom is only 6 months older than Meidroth, already reached MLB, currently on the 40 man roster, and liked enough by the current admin that they increased the money in the Sale trade to acquire him.  And also have not likely given up on him after one injury-plagued season…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Casas, onlyh if we move Devers to 1B and have faith that Campbell, Mayer, Grissom can play 3B. (All should be better on D than Devers is.)

After reading that article comparing him to Vientos, I’d put Romy Gonzalez in the 3b mix.  And I can include Meidroth.
 

I’d also keep Campbell and Mayer out for now.  Both are more likely to fit better in the middle infield.  No one has confused Story with Cal Ripken lately.  And Hamilton, while fun and surprising, can be beaten out at 2b…

[drewski6]

Regarding the original article - why trade when you can sign guys. Well, when you sign guys, guys will get blocked.  So for example, I lean no on trading an infielder - but if we sign Bregman or Adames thats going to have a downstream effect. The need to open up a 40 man spot, prospects getting blocked, guys losing their role to a signing.

But I, unlike many here, do not seem are problems are pitching exclusively and we have all these wonderful position players. I think we could use a lot of free agents on the position side, a righty outfielder, potentially a middle infielder, a catcher. And I dont think our projected batting order for next year is great and its far too left handed and our D stinks.

[drewski6]

Sure , our OPS was 7th last year - but you are losing your #2 OPS player (Oneill) who had 400+ at bats, no small number. Wong was .781 but we are looking to cut into his atbats for defensive shortcomings, Abreu was up there among our best, but hes likely to be traded.

Without these three, the bats could leave us wanting.

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

After reading that article comparing him to Vientos, I’d put Romy Gonzalez in the 3b mix.  And I can include Meidroth.
 

I’d also keep Campbell and Mayer out for now.  Both are more likely to fit better in the middle infield.  No one has confused Story with Cal Ripken lately.  And Hamilton, while fun and surprising, can be beaten out at 2b…

If and until Campbell wins 2B, I'm thinking a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B will do pretty well. (The other is decent depth for that game.)

I don't think we add Meidroth to the 40, unless Devers goes down for a long time.

[notin]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Regarding the original article - why trade when you can sign guys. Well, when you sign guys, guys will get blocked.  So for example, I lean no on trading an infielder - but if we sign Bregman or Adames thats going to have a downstream effect. The need to open up a 40 man spot, prospects getting blocked, guys losing their role to a signing.

But I, unlike many here, do not seem are problems are pitching exclusively and we have all these wonderful position players. I think we could use a lot of free agents on the position side, a righty outfielder, potentially a middle infielder, a catcher. And I dont think our projected batting order for next year is great and it’s far too left handed and our D stinks.

Ptchers are never blocked.  But signing position players is different, and can quite often involve making a long term commitment to solve a short term problem. Not to mention free agency typically involves paying players in their 30’s for what they did in their 20’s, and often for another team.

 

That said, I rarely advocate heavily (or even at all) for any free agent.  But I still want the Sox to be all in on Soto.  Fix the pitching via trade(s)…

[Brock Beauchamp]

Given the position Kyle Teel is in right now, I think it makes sense for the Sox to pursue a Christian Vazquez reunion. The Twins are likely desperate to be rid of his contract and the Red Sox can easily absorb most of his one-year, $10m deal.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Sure , our OPS was 7th last year - but you are losing your #2 OPS player (Oneill) who had 400+ at bats, no small number. Wong was .781 but we are looking to cut into his atbats for defensive shortcomings, Abreu was up there among our best, but hes likely to be traded.

Without these three, the bats could leave us wanting.

We heard the same thing before the 2024 season.

Duvall (.834) was 3rd in OPS (8th in PAs)

Turner (.800) was 5th (2nd in PAs)

Verdugo (.745) was 7th (3rd in PAs)

A healthy Casas and Story could easily make up for O'Neill, and so many of our players are pre-prime or peak prime.

Honestly, I'd be okay, if we add nobody to the offense, except a defensive catcher. Soto would be great, and his addition would allow for an OF'er to be traded for pitching.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

You could flip flop those two names in that last sentence and it makes just as much sense.

Not to mention, Grissom is only 6 months older than Meidroth, already reached MLB, currently on the 40 man roster, and liked enough by the current admin that they increased the money in the Sale trade to acquire him.  And also have not likely given up on him after one injury-plagued season…

Grissom doesn't have the walk-off walk bat flip game that Meidroth does. 

[notin]

29 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Given the position Kyle Teel is in right now, I think it makes sense for the Sox to pursue a Christian Vazquez reunion. The Twins are likely desperate to be rid of his contract and the Red Sox can easily absorb most of his one-year, $10m deal.

Ok but we’re keeping Abreu.  Want Enmanuel Valdez?

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Grissom doesn't have the walk-off walk bat flip game that Meidroth does. 

Reportedly he is working on it…

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Given the position Kyle Teel is in right now, I think it makes sense for the Sox to pursue a Christian Vazquez reunion. The Twins are likely desperate to be rid of his contract and the Red Sox can easily absorb most of his one-year, $10m deal.

It's taken him 90+ games each of the past two seasons to provide $6-7M in value. I don't know if there is enough playing time for him to be valuable at that price. I'm not sure the Sox are prepared to move on from Wong just yet. Wong would get the majority of the starts. His largest contract with the Sox was 4.5M and that seemed about right for what he brings to the table as fulltime starter. Anything more than that is a waste IMO. I wouldn't pay "most of his one year, $10M deal." 

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Ok but we’re keeping Abreu.  Want Enmanuel Valdez?

It would take almost nothing to get Vazquez from the Twins. Forget about top prospects, just offer them a low minors arm and they'd probably jump at the chance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's taken him 90+ games each of the past two seasons to provide $6-7M in value. I don't know if there is enough playing time for him to be valuable at that price. I'm not sure the Sox are prepared to move on from Wong just yet. Wong would get the majority of the starts. His largest contract with the Sox was 4.5M and that seemed about right for what he brings to the table as fulltime starter. Anything more than that is a waste IMO. I wouldn't pay "most of his one year, $10M deal." 

Vazquez's $10m contract isn't a good value, which is why I think the Sox should explore acquiring him. They should be able to get him for very little prospect capital if they're willing to take on some extra money. And considering how vastly superior Vazquez's defense is to Wong, it could improve many aspects of the 2025 Sox.

Basically, use the Sox's large wallet to take advantage of the Twins' financial straits.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Vazquez's $10m contract isn't a good value, which is why I think the Sox should explore acquiring him. They should be able to get him for very little prospect capital if they're willing to take on some extra money. And considering how vastly superior Vazquez's defense is to Wong, it could improve many aspects of the 2025 Sox.

Basically, use the Sox's large wallet to take advantage of the Twins' financial straits.

We've wanted the Sox to use their financial muscle ever since they traded Mookie. This ownership has been relatively hesitant to do so. The moves they've gone out on a limb for have blown up on them. 

Grandal has a similar defensive profile and is available as a FA. At 36, he'll be a lot less than 10M. Travis d'Arnaud just signed for 2/12. Stallings signed for 1/2.5. Hedges signed for 1/4. I think you could get a one year deal out of Grandal for 6M and not have to give anything else up. Maybe they bring back Jansen or find a cheaper option like Elias Diaz.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It would take almost nothing to get Vazquez from the Twins. Forget about top prospects, just offer them a low minors arm and they'd probably jump at the chance.

Enmanuel Valdez isn’t a top prospect.  He’s a decent (ceiling) bat with no glove absorbing a 40 man roster spot that would need to open up to acquire Vasquez.

 

And he could get the distinction of being traded for the same player twice…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not spending money to upgrade is the reason for "painful" trades, as Breslow calls them, even though his deals have been painless, so far (except for maybe watching them present the Cy Youngs last night).

We've been joking for half a decade that the Sox should swap some middle infield prospects for needs, and last summer they did just that -- though Yorke, Coffey and Paulino didn't hurt, at this point in their careers.

But Sam now says upgrades are urgent, like he just chugged a gallon of press conference, the night before a GI procedure.

So expect some spending... because it would be more surprising if they went all these years developing -- and advertising -- really good young minor leaguers, only to trade some away on the brink of becoming core members of the next, ok? team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Enmanuel Valdez isn’t a top prospect.  He’s a decent (ceiling) bat with no glove absorbing a 40 man roster spot that would need to open up to acquire Vasquez.

And he could get the distinction of being traded for the same player twice…

Ah right, he was part of the Vazquez deal already. So yes, this absolutely needs to happen IMO.

[sk7326]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Casas, onlyh if we move Devers to 1B and have faith that Campbell, Mayer, Grissom can play 3B. (All should be better on D than Devers is.)

I think Soto ends up at 1B - just a matter of when 

[drewski6]

On 11/21/2024 at 2:08 PM, moonslav59 said:

We heard the same thing before the 2024 season.

Duvall (.834) was 3rd in OPS (8th in PAs)

Turner (.800) was 5th (2nd in PAs)

Verdugo (.745) was 7th (3rd in PAs)

A healthy Casas and Story could easily make up for O'Neill, and so many of our players are pre-prime or peak prime.

Honestly, I'd be okay, if we add nobody to the offense, except a defensive catcher. Soto would be great, and his addition would allow for an OF'er to be traded for pitching.

Thats fair regarding the offense finding a way to replace the departures year after year.  But I dont want to be counting on Story to stay healthy or Casas to be consistent.  If you take projected lineup with no position player additions, its not like its great. It may be okay, but whats the goal here? Build the best team possible. 

Any pitcher you sign has a 35% chance of getting hurt or just falling off a cliff.  Bats are more reliable. ANd the team is still too lefty heavy.

Id be okay with only one impact bat, and I would very much like it to be Soto. But if Soto doesnt come, I think they should get Teoscar or Bregman or some other impact righty bat.  

[drewski6]

On 11/21/2024 at 2:06 PM, notin said:

Ptchers are never blocked.  But signing position players is different, and can quite often involve making a long term commitment to solve a short term problem. Not to mention free agency typically involves paying players in their 30’s for what they did in their 20’s, and often for another team.

 

That said, I rarely advocate heavily (or even at all) for any free agent.  But I still want the Sox to be all in on Soto.  Fix the pitching via trade(s)…

I prefer trades to free agents, but I dont share your avoidance of free agents.

Id rather have a guy who makes 20m, and provides the WAR of a 10m guy then not have him and be 20m under budget.  And I also think you can get yourself into trouble with the band-aids and stop caps and short term commitments to guys who will take them. I think thats part of the problem.

A revolving door of bad pitchers on 1-2 year deals and you are not even saving that much $$ cuz the AAVs still add up.

Let the prospects serve as depth and work their way in.  Theres nothing to be gained by avoiding free agents from a wins perspective.  And I dont mean just empty the budget with disregard. Of course, only go after players you like.  But if you always avoid free agents, what exactly the point of keeping budget room. You just wont use it.

Of course, you could use it resigning guys, but thats kind of prioritizing guys just because they happen to have already been here.  Meritocracy.  If there are better first baseman than Casas dont use your money on casas just because it would be an extension and not a free agent.

You also want to look at the last time the market was reset.  If guys are going for the same rate that they were 5 years ago, you want to pounce and sign guys (with term on those contracts).  Cuz inflation is real and if guys are signing for the same rate they were 5 years ago, thats not gonna last long.  Eventually, the salaries will catch up and reflect inflation.

[drewski6]

More than anything , Im sick of the 1-2 deals for mediocre players with inflated AAVs.

Player x is 32 years old, and would cost you 24m. Hes a #2 starter at prestent. BUt you avoid cuz hes getting 4 year deals and you want to keep him to 3 years

Player y is 32 years old and is a #3/4 starter. So you go here because hes willing to accept a 1 yr deal at 17M.

Thers not as much upside with player y, even if he works out, hes gone after this year.  And you may worry that player x wont be a #2 starter on the back 2 years of a hypothetical 4 year deal, but theres a good chance that by then 24m wont even be the going rate for a #2 starter anymore.

Inflation, inflation , inflation.

I understand the reasons why we would go short in recent past.  Try to give the prospects time while you keep the team at least watchable. But now that we are strategizing about turning a corner, its time to prioritize quality over fear of getting stuck with an underwater contract.