Article: The Red Sox Should Consider Trading Jarren Duran For An Ace

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Nick said:

I fully agree. Until these young ones are established major leaguers, we really don't know what we have. To say 'plethora' of outfielders in not true as of today. Maybe by mid summer. 

If you can't count on Anthony more than Rafaela, Abreu and Ref, then why be against trading him?

[Nick]

Assuming Houck, Bello, Kutter, Giolito, Fitts and others can go 5 innings, can we simply load up on the bullpen with some elite resume?

Assuming we have a long reliever in Casper, let's build the bullpen with 7 studs. That maybe easier and less costly. Many of them go for short term deals.

[Nick]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If you can't count on Anthony more than Rafaela, Abreu and Ref, then why be against trading him?

Why be so impatient? It's possible Abreu's value will go up. Here's my high ceiling lineup.

C Wong, Teel as future backup/starter, both can play other positions/DH.

1B Casas

2B Campbell

SS Story/Mayer as back up in case of an injury

3B Devers

LF Duran

CF Rafaela (I'm thinking defense first)

RF Anthony

DH/OF Yoshida, Refsnyder, Abreu (teach him how to play 1B)

Utility IF Hamilton/Romy/Grissom

I believe that's a solid positional player lineup. 

I would want to see the injury situation before I start trading anyone. 

Sign a starting pitcher and start assembling hard throwing bullpen help.

 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Nick said:

Assuming Houck, Bello, Kutter, Giolito, Fitts and others can go 5 innings, can we simply load up on the bullpen with some elite resume?

Assuming we have a long reliever in Casper, let's build the bullpen with 7 studs. That maybe easier and less costly. Many of them go for short term deals.

Why assume all 5 of those starters get the job done?

We just saw us get way better results from our starting 5 than anyone, in their wildest dreams, expected.

Now, we assume they will repeat? That Giolito, with an 86 ERA+ in his two prior seasons, is going to replace Pivetta with a 108 ERA+, the last 2 years? That Fitts is going to outpitch Criswell, who the team went 12-6 in his starts? That Houck, Bello and Crawford are going to do as well or better?

We need to get better, not stay even. The rotation was a big part of the problem, as was the pen. We need to fix both, and with major additions- not upgrading our #3/4 SP'er of middle releif guys. We need to upgrade at the top, and improve lower slots by attrition and further additions.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Nick said:

Why be so impatient? It's possible Abreu's value will go up. Here's my high ceiling lineup.

C Wong, Teel as future backup/starter, both can play other positions/DH.

1B Casas

2B Campbell

SS Story/Mayer as back up in case of an injury

3B Devers

LF Duran

CF Rafaela (I'm thinking defense first)

RF Anthony

DH/OF Yoshida, Refsnyder, Abreu (teach him how to play 1B)

Utility IF Hamilton/Romy/Grissom

I believe that's a solid positional player lineup. 

I would want to see the injury situation before I start trading anyone. 

Sign a starting pitcher and start assembling hard throwing bullpen help.

 

I'm 100% all for signing who we need and making minimal trades (no big names,) but we all know we CANNOT count on JH to come through.

Why impatient?  I think sitting through 5 of 6 years of crapola is all the patience an Sox fan should endure. The time is now. The window could have opened in '24. Look how close we came, despite the Gio and Sale deals. If we don't start the window in '25, we are shortening it.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Nick said:

Why be so impatient? It's possible Abreu's value will go up. Here's my high ceiling lineup.

C Wong, Teel as future backup/starter, both can play other positions/DH.

1B Casas

2B Campbell

SS Story/Mayer as back up in case of an injury

3B Devers

LF Duran

CF Rafaela (I'm thinking defense first)

RF Anthony

DH/OF Yoshida, Refsnyder, Abreu (teach him how to play 1B)

Utility IF Hamilton/Romy/Grissom

I believe that's a solid positional player lineup. 

I would want to see the injury situation before I start trading anyone. 

Sign a starting pitcher and start assembling hard throwing bullpen help.

 

You listed 16 names for 13 slots, and we have holes all through the pitching staff, which includes the losses of Pivetta, Jansen and Martin from a staff already not good enough to get us to the playoffs, despite several pitchers having career best years and IP'd.

What am I missing?

I'm honestly wondering and would love to be schooled into believing we don't need to trade from strength to improve higher need areas.

[Nick]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You listed 16 names for 13 slots, and we have holes all through the pitching staff, which includes the losses of Pivetta, Jansen and Martin from a staff already not good enough to get us to the playoffs, despite several pitchers having career best years and IP'd.

What am I missing?

I'm honestly wondering and would love to be schooled into believing we don't need to trade from strength to improve higher need areas.

I don't believe there's a DD in our organization to make a bold trade.

What I really want to say is THERE IS NOT A MAN IN OUR ORGANIZATION. NO BALLS. ANYWHERE.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

10 hours ago, harmony said:

What need do the Mariners have for a nearly 32-year-old infielder owed $77.5 million after posting 0.9 fWAR over the past two seasons?

according to many on here that are counting on Story for next year why wouldn't the Mariners too?

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think Duran is worth Skubal or Skenes. Duran is probably worth a Tanner Houck equivalent. 

 

2 hours ago, smokedogg1982 said:

Right and I would not move the most productive bat on the team last season for another Houck not that I dislike Tanner Houck

that is exactly what my thoughts were

[Randy Red Sox]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why assume all 5 of those starters get the job done?

We just saw us get way better results from our starting 5 than anyone, in their wildest dreams, expected.

Now, we assume they will repeat? That Giolito, with an 86 ERA+ in his two prior seasons, is going to replace Pivetta with a 108 ERA+, the last 2 years? That Fitts is going to outpitch Criswell, who the team went 12-6 in his starts? That Houck, Bello and Crawford are going to do as well or better?

We need to get better, not stay even. The rotation was a big part of the problem, as was the pen. We need to fix both, and with major additions- not upgrading our #3/4 SP'er of middle releif guys. We need to upgrade at the top, and improve lower slots by attrition and further additions.

one of your best posts.  don't hold your breath on most of it happening though

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Nick said:

I don't believe there's a DD in our organization to make a bold trade.

What I really want to say is THERE IS NOT A MAN IN OUR ORGANIZATION. NO BALLS. ANYWHERE.

 

It took balls to trade Sale, something Bloom could not bring himself to do.

Brez aso traded Dugo, but that was no blockbuster.

So, no balls to make a bold trade, but somehow you think JH will grow some and spend bigly?

Again, I agree that spending is the best way to preserve our everyday 13 and nice depth, but I think a bold trade is  more likely than JH spending over $40-50M, this winter in AAV.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

one of your best posts.  don't hold your breath on most of it happening though

Oh, trust me, I am not holding my breath, anymore. I'm not expecting big spending or a blockbuster trade. I'm expecting more of the same, until they show me otherwise.

That will not stop me from making suggestions, I think will improve the team, and I even try to suggest moves that mostly will not cost JH more money than the 2024 budget was. Even the deals where I suggest we take back more salary than Yoshida's, still keep us way under the 2024 budget line. (Well, maybe one suggestion got us slightly over it.)

We simply cannot just rely on hopes for Gio,  Fitts, Priester, Hendriks and Fulmer, plus equal or better production from the returning pitchers. Maybe better from Bello, I campbell and Slaten can be reasonably hoped for, but I'm not sure Houck, Crawford, Criswell, and the group of RP'ers returning can be expected to improve, but even then, someone else will decline to cancel it out.

You have to get better, on paper, and hope it translates to more wins, while keeping injuries low.

Youi can't look at the paper we have and wish it gets better, by itself.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

Assuming Houck, Bello, Kutter, Giolito, Fitts and others can go 5 innings, can we simply load up on the bullpen with some elite resume?

Assuming we have a long reliever in Casper, let's build the bullpen with 7 studs. That maybe easier and less costly. Many of them go for short term deals.

Teams rarely if ever use only 5 SP over a season.  Fitts and Priester should be options 6 and 7.  In either order…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Why assume all 5 of those starters get the job done?

We just saw us get way better results from our starting 5 than anyone, in their wildest dreams, expected.

Now, we assume they will repeat? That Giolito, with an 86 ERA+ in his two prior seasons, is going to replace Pivetta with a 108 ERA+, the last 2 years? That Fitts is going to outpitch Criswell, who the team went 12-6 in his starts? That Houck, Bello and Crawford are going to do as well or better?

We need to get better, not stay even. The rotation was a big part of the problem, as was the pen. We need to fix both, and with major additions- not upgrading our #3/4 SP'er of middle releif guys. We need to upgrade at the top, and improve lower slots by attrition and further additions.

The Sox were 11th in SP fWAR, which is surprisingly high for a team with no full time 5th starter.

The bullpen was 14th in fWAR, but fWAR is influenced by IP, and bullpens usage matters.  Tje Sox were 24th in bullpen FIP.  This is where the bigger problem is..

[harmony]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Teams rarely if ever use only 5 SP over a season.  Fitts and Priester should be options 6 and 7.  In either order…

The last MLB club to use only five starting pitchers over a season was the 2003 Seattle Mariners, who  won 93 games in the second of 20 straight years without a postseason berth.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2003.shtml

[harmony]

FWIW all five Seattle starters are mentioned repeatedly in trade discussions on this forum but Jarren Duran is never mentioned in this offseason's trade discussions on a disreputable Seattle forum:

https://www.marinertalk.com/viewforum.php?f=3

🙂

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW all five Seattle starters are mentioned repeatedly in trade discussions on this forum but Jarren Duran is never mentioned in this offseason's trade discussions on a disreputable Seattle forum:

https://www.marinertalk.com/viewforum.php?f=3

🙂

Oh no!

[Nick]

Moon

Had the Sox simply 'saved' the major league average, we would  had 5 more wins, bringing our win total to 86.

Our 71 savable games ranked 6th in the MLB. We need better bullpen. 

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Teams rarely if ever use only 5 SP over a season.  Fitts and Priester should be options 6 and 7.  In either order…

To me, Fitts and Priester should be 7 & 8, unless Crawford is in the pen.

And yes, our SP'ers ranked 11th, but the lost Pivetta, and nobody is counting on Criswell in the rotation. We had a couple guys have career seasons in IP and productivity. Maybe Bello can be viewed as having a good shot at improving. I don't see why we should count on the others to  get better.

11th best is still not good enough, even if we can repeat what we did, last year, without Pivetta, Jansen and Martin.

We need a top SP'ers or two decent ones.

We need 3-4 solid pen arms, but 2 really good ones might be enough.

Almost every aspect of our game ranked about 11th to 12th, except defense, which as 28th to 30th, IMO.

We need to stop dicking around by counting on Crawford, Gio, Hendriks and Fulmer to carry us in 2025. If everyone does the same as last year with zero injuries (yea right!) there is no reason to think we'll be any better with pitching.

I do see the defense improving, assuming Story or Mayer are healthy at any given moment.

I think the offense will be the same or better, despite losing O'Neill, due to almost all our players moving towards prime or entering it, and several good hitting prospects ML ready, right now.

Pitching is where we must improve. along with a catcher who knows defense and how to maximize a staff's potential. 

[moonslav59]

My Pitching staff wish (near 0% chance of happening)

SP1 __Addition__

SP2 Houck

SP3 __Nick Martinez__

SP4 Bello

SP5 Giolito

SP6/Long Man Crawford

(AAA: Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Gambrell, Wikelman, Drohan, Sandlin)

RP1 __Tanner Scott__

RP2  __Add LHP__

RP3 Hendriks

RP4 Slaten

RP5 Whitlock

RP6 Criswell

RP7 Fulmer

(AAA: Wink, Bernardino, Guerrero, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, I Campbell, Shugart, Horn, Mata)

In reality, adding 1 top SP'er and 2 solid RP'ers is likely too much to ask from Sham & Co.

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

FWIW all five Seattle starters are mentioned repeatedly in trade discussions on this forum but Jarren Duran is never mentioned in this offseason's trade discussions on a disreputable Seattle forum:

https://www.marinertalk.com/viewforum.php?f=3

🙂

Not en on a disreputable one?!?

[dgalehouse]

Duran is a a breakout star. A key member of this team. Do not trade him.  Simply beefing up the bullpen so they don't blow so many leads will greatly improve the team's record. And it can be done without trading Duran or any of the top prospects. And it won't cause John Henry to have to sell his yacht. It might even leave enough cash for a good free agent starting pitcher. 

[notin]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, Fitts and Priester should be 7 & 8, unless Crawford is in the pen.

And yes, our SP'ers ranked 11th, but the lost Pivetta, and nobody is counting on Criswell in the rotation. We had a couple guys have career seasons in IP and productivity. Maybe Bello can be viewed as having a good shot at improving. I don't see why we should count on the others to  get better.

11th best is still not good enough, even if we can repeat what we did, last year, without Pivetta, Jansen and Martin.

We need a top SP'ers or two decent ones.

We need 3-4 solid pen arms, but 2 really good ones might be enough.

Almost every aspect of our game ranked about 11th to 12th, except defense, which as 28th to 30th, IMO.

We need to stop dicking around by counting on Crawford, Gio, Hendriks and Fulmer to carry us in 2025. If everyone does the same as last year with zero injuries (yea right!) there is no reason to think we'll be any better with pitching.

I do see the defense improving, assuming Story or Mayer are healthy at any given moment.

I think the offense will be the same or better, despite losing O'Neill, due to almost all our players moving towards prime or entering it, and several good hitting prospects ML ready, right now.

Pitching is where we must improve. along with a catcher who knows defense and how to maximize a staff's potential. 

Embrace Crawford! The man is a starter!

The guy lead the Sox in games started and IP! (And NOT in hits and walks alllowed!). He’s harder to replace than you think.

Also we could have better pitching by fixing the defense somewhat…

.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Not en on a disreputable one?!?

🤔

[notin]

2 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Duran is a a breakout star. A key member of this team. Do not trade him.  Simply beefing up the bullpen so they don't blow so many leads will greatly improve the team's record. And it can be done without trading Duran or any of the top prospects. And it won't cause John Henry to have to sell his yacht. It might even leave enough cash for a good free agent starting pitcher. 

I agree.

The Sox rotation was better (by fWAR) than some post season participants.  Fix the pen and the D

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Embrace Crawford! The man is a starter!

The guy lead the Sox in games started and IP! (And NOT in hits and walks alllowed!). He’s harder to replace than you think.

Also we could have better pitching by fixing the defense somewhat…

.

I agree that Crawford is a starter. I don't think moving him out of the rotation solves anyone's problems. If you have a guy that can throw 180+ innings, you slide him in as the 5th starter at the very least. I think he was a little unlucky with the longball this year and should rebound next season. 

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Embrace Crawford! The man is a starter!

The guy lead the Sox in games started and IP! (And NOT in hits and walks alllowed!). He’s harder to replace than you think.

Also we could have better pitching by fixing the defense somewhat…

.

I'm fully aware Crawford is in the 2025 rotation, 100%, but I'm not going to "embrace" mediocrity.

As our 6th starter, he can and will be able to start the same amount of games, as last year. No way everyone stays healthy. 

Chances are Crawford still starts 30 and we see Fitts start some, too.

Even if we discount no starts by Gio, which is a big deal, we still got 26 starts by the "depth." (33 Crawford, 30 Houck, 30 Bello, 26 Pivetta and 18 Criswell as the "starting 5.")  ... 6 Wink, 4 Fitts & Whitlock, 3 Paxton, 1 Priester and 8 pen games.

In reality, we got 0-33 from Gio and 4-33 from Whitlock, so we actually got 93 starts from the expected starting 5 of Gio, Bello, Whitlock, Crawford and Pivetta.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

I agree.

The Sox rotation was better (by fWAR) than some post season participants.  Fix the pen and the D

The rotation was not 11th after mid May, and we lost Pivetta, who was our 2nd best fWAR pitcher in 2024. In fact, Pivetta owns 3 of the top 10 seasonal fWARs among all Sox pitchers since 2021. Houck has 2 and Crawford Bello 1 each. 

Counting on Gio and Fitts is not asking for trouble: it's just rinse and repeating what we've done since 2020.

We need 6 SP'ers not named Fitts, Priester or Criswell.

YES, we also need pen additions, and I'm fine with saying we need them more than a SP'er, but we need both, of we will be flirting with .500, again in 2025.

FYI, best pen fWARs (not my stat of choice for RP'ers) since 2021, by season:

1.8 Schreiber '22

1.6 Whitlock '21 (Hopefully he can return to near this form in '25's pen)

1.5 Martin '23 and Slaten '24

1.4 Jansen '24 and 1.1 Jansen '23

1.3 Barnes '21

1.1 Josh Taylor '21

0.9 Martin '24

Only Slaten and Whitlock remain.

 

[moonslav59]

May 16 to end of season:

Red Sox staff was 23rd in fWAR.

25th in RP fWAR 1.1

T18th in SP fWAR at 7.3. Yeah, let's roll it back minus Pivetta,

[mvp 78]

42 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fully aware Crawford is in the 2025 rotation, 100%, but I'm not going to "embrace" mediocrity.

As our 6th starter, he can and will be able to start the same amount of games, as last year. No way everyone stays healthy. 

Chances are Crawford still starts 30 and we see Fitts start some, too.

Even if we discount no starts by Gio, which is a big deal, we still got 26 starts by the "depth." (33 Crawford, 30 Houck, 30 Bello, 26 Pivetta and 18 Criswell as the "starting 5.")  ... 6 Wink, 4 Fitts & Whitlock, 3 Paxton, 1 Priester and 8 pen games.

In reality, we got 0-33 from Gio and 4-33 from Whitlock, so we actually got 93 starts from the expected starting 5 of Gio, Bello, Whitlock, Crawford and Pivetta.

Kutter is a better starter than Bello. I'd send Bello to the pen if the Sox found enough starters that needed to push one of them out of the rotation.