predicting 2025 payroll

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think we might be edging out Toronto now for that 5th spot.  After that it's the two NY teams, LA and Philly. 

Are the Sox adding more guys we don't know about? 

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Are the Sox adding more guys we don't know about? 

no, but I think their payroll sits only 1-2 million lower than Toronto and I figure an extension or two is coming. 

I also think the Sox are more likely than Toronto at this point to take on $$$ at the deadline.  But perhaps not, perhaps Toronto goes hard at the deadline taking one last swing before they lose Vladdy if they're competitive come July. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

no, but I think their payroll sits only 1-2 million lower than Toronto and I figure an extension or two is coming. 

I also think the Sox are more likely than Toronto at this point to take on $$$ at the deadline.  But perhaps not, perhaps Toronto goes hard at the deadline taking one last swing before they lose Vladdy if they're competitive come July. 

They are 15-20M lower than TOR according to Spotrac. I'd check Cots, but it doesn't want to load for me. 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They are 15-20M lower than TOR according to Spotrac. I'd check Cots, but it doesn't want to load for me. 

I use Red Sox Payroll, I trust them more than anyone.  Of course they only do the Sox. 

You can go to Cots, Fangraphs, Spotrac and get 3 different numbers.  You're probably right. 

[Bellhorn04]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Since our ranking seemed to matter more to many posters, we might be near 6th, again.

Being out of the top 10 2 years in a row definitely mattered to me. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I use Red Sox Payroll, I trust them more than anyone.  Of course they only do the Sox. 

You can go to Cots, Fangraphs, Spotrac and get 3 different numbers.  You're probably right. 

I think they all use different assumptions about player benefits though. If you used the SoxProspects assumptions on player benefits for TOR, their number probably goes up too. 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

7th in CBT according to Spotrac. 

Will this quiet the "Henry will never spend big, again" crowd?

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they all use different assumptions about player benefits though. If you used the SoxProspects assumptions on player benefits for TOR, their number probably goes up too. 

That's exactly what I thought of when I was back spacing and deleting my last response

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Will this quiet the "Henry will never spend big, again" crowd?

No, now they will just be pissed that he spent too much, or didn't spend it on the right player. 

At the end of the day they have to go out there and play games now. 

[mvp 78]

Tax difference between SP and Spotrac is only 6M and it seems to be in player benefits/MiLB pay. My guess it that the same assumptions carry over to TOR payroll tax. 

What would push them over would be a considerable extension to Crochet that begins this season. The Devers extension began in the following season. If they extend one of Campbell or Anthony, I think that still leaves them behind TOR in the absence of other moves. If they extend both of them, it would likely push them over. They are edging closer to the 2nd CBT and we don't know if they have an appetite to go over that. THEY SHOULD since they have a lot of payroll coming off the books next offseason (50M+). 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Will this quiet the "Henry will never spend big, again" crowd?

Weren't you in that crowd?

[mvp 78]

He hasn't signed any LONG TERM deals! Just short term guys! How can we root for these players even they just keep leaving town?!?!?

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

No, now they will just be pissed that he spent too much, or didn't spend it on the right player. 

At the end of the day they have to go out there and play games now. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No, now they will just be pissed that he spent too much, or didn't spend it on the right player. 

I think most Talksox posters were unhappy about the spending before this.

Let he who is without sin cast the first stone!

 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think most Talksox posters were unhappy about the spending before this.

Let he who is without sin cast the first stone!

 

🤾‍♂️

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think most Talksox posters were unhappy about the spending before this.

Let he who is without sin cast the first stone!

 

We were all in that crowd to some extent, and the criticism we heaped on the front office and owners was well-deserved.

Just like the talented ballplayers the Red Sox have acquired this offseason are well-deserved for the loyal fans being charged top of the industry prices for the past half decade of mediocrity.

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think most Talksox posters were unhappy about the spending before this.

Let he who is without sin cast the first stone!

 

I have plenty of sin, and plenty of stones. 

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Weren't you in that crowd?

Never. I've been saying JH's history is cycle spending, and there is "no way we know" going forward.

I did say I am done "expecting spending, until see it," so in that sense,guess one could see me as the fringes of "that crowd." 

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Never. I've been saying JH's history is cycle spending, and there is "no way we know" going forward.

I did say I am done "expecting spending, until see it," so in that sense,guess one could see me as the fringes of "that crowd." 

 

There is no "crowd", IMO.  I think we all speak our own minds here.  Being labelled as part of a "crowd" is kind of insulting.

 

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There is no "crowd", IMO.  I think we all speak our own minds here.  Being labelled as part of a "crowd" is kind of insulting.

 

It's not meant to imply you don't think for yourselves. I do not think saying "crowd" says that.

There have been a group of posters who have been calling our JH, and rightfully so, IMO, for not spending enough, seeing us fall in the spending rankings and being a scrooge.  A few have been claiming this is who JH is, and he won't spend big, again. If that is not you, then I'm not putting you in that group of posters, or "crowd." 

That group of posters has been very vocal and persistent, when there was really no way anyone could ever know if the spending would stop or stay low/very low going forward. 

There have been minor blips on spending, most notably the Story and Yoshida signings and the massive devers extension, but clearly the spending has been pretty consistently low since the Sale & nate deals. That's a long time: 5-6 years with a couple up blips.. 

Has this winter ended that period? It is hard to say, but we clearly have spent more, this winter than we have since the Sale-Nate contract extensions. We've spent more this winter than 2-3 recent winters combined. (We did lose some significant salaries, too, but this has been a big uptick in spending.)

[Bellhorn04]

On 11/22/2024 at 9:42 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, my wild ass guess, which I expect is also a fairly common one, is they go about 20 mill over the first tax threshold. 

Kind of glad I made an optimistic prediction here now.  I certainly came to doubt it since then LOL.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Kind of glad I made an optimistic prediction here now.  I certainly came to doubt it since then LOL.

Things looked very grim for a while. 

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Things looked very grim for a while. 

This site was pretty upbeat after the Crochet deal, but it got gloomy pretty quickly.

Although nobody really expected us to get Soto, the interest in him did get many of us thinking maybe we will spend a lot, this winter, even after missing out on him.

I will say, spending so much on Buehler, Sandoval & Chapman on short deals was not my favorite choices, but they do seem like steps up from Kluber, Richards and Paxton. Bregman's deal is bigger than Yoshida's, and seems bigger than Story's, too. (Certainly, the AAV is. It is almost as much as Story + Yoshi.)

I am surprised at how much we spent. I was hopeful, but had set my expectations at zero, after so many letdown winters in a row.

We added 3 SP'ers.

We added a brand name everyday players who bats RH'd.

We added Chapman and have Hendriks and Gio returning, as if they are new signings.

We know we know we will have injuries in 2025, but 3 or 4 of our best players were hurt in 2024 and should be back in '25: Devers, Casas, Story & Whitlock. Between the addions, the returnees and the 3 top kids, it's hard not to be optimistic, again.