A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

On 2/21/2025 at 8:41 AM, mvp 78 said:

He's a gold glove caliber platoon OFer on a cheap contract. Sign me up.

Sounds like he should be blocking Campbell and Anthony to me

[moonslav59]

I could see Narvaez getting more playing time than Wong by midseason.

Guerrero has a lot of competition, but he looks better than most others for that 12th or 13th slot of the staff.

Campbell and Anthony seem ready, to me.

Maybe has the hardest road ahead, unless Story goes down for the count.

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I could see Narvaez getting more playing time than Wong by midseason.

Guerrero has a lot of competition, but he looks better than most others for that 12th or 13th slot of the staff.

Campbell and Anthony seem ready, to me.

Maybe has the hardest road ahead, unless Story goes down for the count.

I don’t think the Sox are going to rush someone to the majors just because someone goes down.

I think it’s perfectly plausible that Mayer comes up of Story goes down in June, but not April.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don’t think the Sox are going to rush someone to the majors just because someone goes down.

I think it’s perfectly plausible that Mayer comes up of Story goes down in June, but not April.

It's not just because Story goes down. I think Mayer is ready or real close to ready. Just my take.

[moonslav59]

I don't mean to sound like I'm against the kids on the opening day roster, I just see reasons why the Sox might hold them back a while.

1. They seem loyal to the vets, although Dham, Romy, Abreu and Rafaela are hardly established vets.

2. Yoshida is getting paid $18M a year and may get a chance to earn his pay or build his trade value.

3. The whole years of control issue.

4. Positional bottlenecks: 2B if Bregman plays 2B and OF if Devers plays DH and forces Yoshida & Refsnyder into the OF conversation.

I'm pumped up to see our top prospects get a long look, this year. Strong springs might force the issue, sooner-rather than later, but at some point, 2-3 of the top 3 will get a legitimate chance.

If Campbell hits the ground running, he may even win over the 2 slot, which would allow Bregman to bat 5th. If Anthony comes out swinging, we could see him earn the 3rd, 5th or 6th slot. I'd say, the line-up, with both, might start like this:

1. L Duran CF

2. R Bregman 3B

3. L Casas 1B/DH

4. L Devers DH/1B

5. R Story SS

6. L Abreu RF/Refsnyder LF

7. R Campbell 2B

8. L Anthony LF/RF

9. R Wong or Narvaez C

Bench: Rafaela, Ref or Abreu, Narvaez or Wong and  1 from Yoshida/DHam/Romy

 

[Bellhorn04]

14 hours ago, notin said:

Answered 

Some of those answers were silly!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Big Gameday! Crochet pitching, Bregman playing -- hope winters eternal!

[Hugh2]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not just because Story goes down. I think Mayer is ready or real close to ready. Just my take.

I don’t think he’s ready. And I doubt the Sox would break camp with Mayer in most scenarios

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

22 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don’t think he’s ready. And I doubt the Sox would break camp with Mayer in most scenarios

The only scenario is if he's starting. Mayer won't be called up to sit on the bench. He needs to play regularly somewhere for an entire season.

[Old Red]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not just because Story goes down. I think Mayer is ready or real close to ready. Just my take.

Mayer has lost valuable developmental time the last two years due to injury, which has set him back some IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Mayer has lost valuable developmental time the last two years due to injury, which has set him back some IMO.

Absolutely.  Maybe he will benefit from having a little less of the spotlight on him this year.  "Provided he stays healthy" adds Cap'n Obvious.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I don’t think he’s ready. And I doubt the Sox would break camp with Mayer in most scenarios

Maybe not. I'm not sure how much a couple months matter, but he did miss the end of 2024, so you are probably right.

BTW, career minor league games:

272 Mayer

245 Anthony

137 Campbell

Yes, Mayer's development has been started and halted by injuries, too many times, and that has stunted his "growth" and prolonged his "readiness," but he has grown enough, IMO to be our best back-up SS. He will have some struggles, as do most rookies, but he'll be fine, if needed.

[notin]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Some of those answers were silly!

Some?

[notin]

18 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I don’t think the Sox are going to rush someone to the majors just because someone goes down.

I think it’s perfectly plausible that Mayer comes up of Story goes down in June, but not April.

Would it really be "rushing" Mayer?   His main problem has been injuries, but he has done well at every level he has played at.  And he has been in the system a lot longer than Campbell.

Campbell has played in AAA, but not very much.  And AAA is really not much of a developmental step in many organizations, since it is significantly populated by ex-MLB players on minor league deals.

Mayer probably does not have Campbell's ceiling, but his roster spot is heavily dependant on an injury right now.  Campbell, per Soxprospects. is "passable" at shortstop.  But that same source has much higher praise for Mayer at the position.

 

But then this is all only if Story gets hurt, and the Sox will likely keep the Kid Gloves on with him until opening day...

[notin]

19 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

https://www.soxprospects.com/2025.htm
 

projected opening day rosters.

 

Sox have 3 rookies projected to break camp with the team.  While one gets a lot of attention not a lot of people are talking about Carlos Narvaez, and Luis Guerrero.  Narvaez has tremendous defensive potential behind the dish and if Guerrero is consistent could become a late inning reliable arm in the pen

They also project Yoshida to start the year on the IL.  Is he actually hurt?  

Either way, this aligns with my prediction that Campbell/Anthony would make the team in the event of an injury, a situation you called "highly unlikely"...

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't mean to sound like I'm against the kids on the opening day roster, I just see reasons why the Sox might hold them back a while.

1. They seem loyal to the vets, although Dham, Romy, Abreu and Rafaela are hardly established vets.

2. Yoshida is getting paid $18M a year and may get a chance to earn his pay or build his trade value.

3. The whole years of control issue.

4. Positional bottlenecks: 2B if Bregman plays 2B and OF if Devers plays DH and forces Yoshida & Refsnyder into the OF conversation.

I'm pumped up to see our top prospects get a long look, this year. Strong springs might force the issue, sooner-rather than later, but at some point, 2-3 of the top 3 will get a legitimate chance.

If Campbell hits the ground running, he may even win over the 2 slot, which would allow Bregman to bat 5th. If Anthony comes out swinging, we could see him earn the 3rd, 5th or 6th slot. I'd say, the line-up, with both, might start like this:

1. L Duran CF

2. R Bregman 3B

3. L Casas 1B/DH

4. L Devers DH/1B

5. R Story SS

6. L Abreu RF/Refsnyder LF

7. R Campbell 2B

8. L Anthony LF/RF

9. R Wong or Narvaez C

Bench: Rafaela, Ref or Abreu, Narvaez or Wong and  1 from Yoshida/DHam/Romy

 

If they do decide to actually move Rafaela off a starting role, he could at a minimum handle any RF platoon with Abreu, and leave everyone else as is.  Refsnyder then platoons at DH with Yoshida.  Yoshida doesn't hit LHP well, but he is among their best vs RHP.  If Anthony (or Campbell) makes the team and plays LF full time, I could see the merit in that..   Anthony appears slated (per soxprospects) to start in CF in Worcester.  Not sure if anyone sees that position in his future... 

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Absolutely.  Maybe he will benefit from having a little less of the spotlight on him this year.  "Provided he stays healthy" adds Cap'n Obvious.

It's about his health, to me. I'm not sure the spotlight hurts. He does well, when he plays.

[Bellhorn04]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's about his health, to me. I'm not sure the spotlight hurts. He does well, when he plays.

Total speculation on my part and maybe a reach.  It's just that all the expectations seem to have been placed on Anthony and Campbell for the moment. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Total speculation on my part and maybe a reach.  It's just that all the expectations seem to have been placed on Anthony and Campbell for the moment. 

It can't hurt, and maybe seeing them get more attention might light an even bigger fire beneath him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It can't hurt, and maybe seeing them get more attention might light an even bigger fire beneath him.

After watching Story shuffle-shuffle-shuffle and then bounce an easy throw that Casas couldn't scoop today, I have to wonder if Trevor's arm will be even be able to handle an entire season (if nothing else breaks down and puts him on the IL). 

I'm not saying Story is already injured or even sore, but maybe the internal brace just doesn't give him the arm strength he once had before elbow issues. We know he's a fitness fiend, so maybe he's just taking it easy because it's Spring Training...

... we also know Mayer has the young supple tissue and power to just plant his back leg and fire a strike to Casas.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

After watching Story shuffle-shuffle-shuffle and then bounce an easy throw that Casas couldn't scoop today, I have to wonder if Trevor's arm will be even be able to handle an entire season (if nothing else breaks down and puts him on the IL). 

I'm not saying Story is already injured or even sore, but maybe the internal brace just doesn't give him the arm strength he once had before elbow issues. We know he's a fitness fiend, so maybe he's just taking it easy because it's Spring Training...

... we also know Mayer has the young supple tissue and power to just plant his back leg and fire a strike to Casas.

I'm not sure we can read that much into one play. If Stoty's ar is an issue, we could eventually see Mayers at SS, Story at 2B and Campbell at 3b or OF.

[Larry Cook]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's about his health, to me. I'm not sure the spotlight hurts. He does well, when he plays.

Mayer is a big boy, lot of moving parts for him at shortstop. Not sure we can ever rule out injuries for him. 
now third base might be the single best defensive position for him with the added benefit of the chance to mitigate injuries 

As for his hitting, he has a little swing and miss in his swing, but other than that, the dude is a tremendous hitter!!!! Definitely further along than the other two!!! He may not have the same ceiling though 

bottom line, I think he only sees Fenway if story get hurt or slumps big time. At the end of the year we have to add him to the 40 man roster anyway 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure we can read that much into one play. If Stoty's ar is an issue, we could eventually see Mayers at SS, Story at 2B and Campbell at 3b or OF.

I'm watching them all on defense. Hamilton missed a line drive, and Saturday had a perfect peg by Narvaez squirt out of his glove on the tag. Sogard made miscues at 3B and 2B. Anthony half dove for a liner that clanked off the heal of his glove, then heaved a lollipop to second. Rafaela threw a laser to nail a runner at the plate.

But we should especially keep an eye on Story. If he's going to run the ball halfway to first because he can't make a strong throw from shortstop, we have problems. Shortstop's pretty important.

[Hugh2]

18 hours ago, notin said:

They also project Yoshida to start the year on the IL.  Is he actually hurt?  

Either way, this aligns with my prediction that Campbell/Anthony would make the team in the event of an injury, a situation you called "highly unlikely"...

So you're saying "Yoshida" was blocking those guys lol.   That's rubbish. 

Somebody always gets hurt.  There's going to be some out for you. But if Mayer is the first one up as you say, and Campbell would play 2nd because Yoshida got hurt why not shift Story to 2nd and just call up Mayer instead of Campbell?.  You won't be able to explain that one away. 

[Hugh2]

18 hours ago, notin said:

Would it really be "rushing" Mayer?   His main problem has been injuries, but he has done well at every level he has played at.  And he has been in the system a lot longer than Campbell.

Campbell has played in AAA, but not very much.  And AAA is really not much of a developmental step in many organizations, since it is significantly populated by ex-MLB players on minor league deals.

Mayer probably does not have Campbell's ceiling, but his roster spot is heavily dependant on an injury right now.  Campbell, per Soxprospects. is "passable" at shortstop.  But that same source has much higher praise for Mayer at the position.

 

But then this is all only if Story gets hurt, and the Sox will likely keep the Kid Gloves on with him until opening day...

He's in the system a lot longer because he was drafted out of highschool.  Also, you can't compare prospect timelines apples to apples, people progress at their own pace.  While injury has probably delayed Mayers progression it's still very real, he doesn't automatically regain a full year of development on opening day.  Campbell has jumped ahead of Mayer on the MLB readiness timeline. 

[mvp 78]

On 2/22/2025 at 7:30 PM, moonslav59 said:

It's not just because Story goes down. I think Mayer is ready or real close to ready. Just my take.

Why? Even Lou said on the broadcast that he has stuff to work on and needs time in AAA. He has platoon concerns and can't hit offspeed stuff. This is well known. If they are saying it on NESN, it's no longer just me talking about it as some fringe conspiracy. 

[mvp 78]

19 hours ago, notin said:

Would it really be "rushing" Mayer?   His main problem has been injuries, but he has done well at every level he has played at.  And he has been in the system a lot longer than Campbell.

Campbell has played in AAA, but not very much.  And AAA is really not much of a developmental step in many organizations, since it is significantly populated by ex-MLB players on minor league deals.

Mayer probably does not have Campbell's ceiling, but his roster spot is heavily dependant on an injury right now.  Campbell, per Soxprospects. is "passable" at shortstop.  But that same source has much higher praise for Mayer at the position.

 

But then this is all only if Story gets hurt, and the Sox will likely keep the Kid Gloves on with him until opening day...

Well, Campbell isn't a SS, so... 

I mean, he should only play 2B/3B/OF. 

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He's in the system a lot longer because he was drafted out of highschool.  Also, you can't compare prospect timelines apples to apples, people progress at their own pace.  While injury has probably delayed Mayers progression it's still very real, he doesn't automatically regain a full year of development on opening day.  Campbell has jumped ahead of Mayer on the MLB readiness timeline. 

Campbell is more MLB ready, but not to play SS. If Story goes down, it's more likely that Bregman slides to SS and Campbell plays 2B IMO. 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Mayer is a big boy, lot of moving parts for him at shortstop. Not sure we can ever rule out injuries for him. 
now third base might be the single best defensive position for him with the added benefit of the chance to mitigate injuries 

As for his hitting, he has a little swing and miss in his swing, but other than that, the dude is a tremendous hitter!!!! Definitely further along than the other two!!! He may not have the same ceiling though 

bottom line, I think he only sees Fenway if story get hurt or slumps big time. At the end of the year we have to add him to the 40 man roster anyway 

He could also play 2B, but your point is well taken.

[Hugh2]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell is more MLB ready, but not to play SS. If Story goes down, it's more likely that Bregman slides to SS and Campbell plays 2B IMO. 

Agreed, they have other options as well.  A lot depends on how long Story would be out.  They'd plug Hamilton or Gonzalez there, but I don't see them playing every day long term.  There's also a scenario where Rafaela plays. 

There's a world where Mayer just shoves in spring training and Story goes down with a series injury.  I still think in 999 out of 1,000 scenarios that doesn't involve injury to a starting position player Campbel/Anthony come up sooner.