A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Larry Cook]

51 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Anthony LF

Eaton CF

Garcia RF

Campbell/Mayer 2B/SS

Thanks 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't see platooning, unless it's with a young prospect who starts to struggle (like Anthony or Mayer vs. tough lefties).

There seems to be a perception that Abreu was a better hitter than Rafaela last year, because the latter never walked. But Abreu actually had a worse K-rate 28% (vs. 26.4% for Rafela) in 124 less Plate Appearances. Even if Abreu was a slightly better At Batter, little separated the two as Hitters. 

Here are batting averages for a few categories:

vs. RHP: Ceddanne .259, Wilyer .266

vs. LHP: Ceddanne .211, Wilyer .180

2nd Half: Ceddanne .250, Wilyer .240

2 outs, RISP: Ceddanne .250, Wilyer .304

Late and close: Ceddanne .318, Wilyer .143

Excluding All-Stars Duran and Devers, the pair were the Sox two most valuable regulars by WAR: Abreu 3.4, Rafaela 2.8. Boston needs them both on the field.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I don't see platooning, unless it's with a young prospect who starts to struggle (like Anthony or Mayer vs. tough lefties).

There seems to be a perception that Abreu was a better hitter than Rafaela last year, because the latter never walked. But Abreu actually had a worse K-rate 28% (vs. 26.4% for Rafela) in 124 less Plate Appearances. Even if Abreu was a slightly better At Batter, little separated the two as Hitters. 

Here are batting averages for a few categories:

vs. RHP: Ceddanne .259, Wilyer .266

vs. LHP: Ceddanne .211, Wilyer .180

2nd Half: Ceddanne .250, Wilyer .240

2 outs, RISP: Ceddanne .250, Wilyer .304

Late and close: Ceddanne .318, Wilyer .143

Excluding All-Stars Duran and Devers, the pair were the Sox two most valuable regulars by WAR: Abreu 3.4, Rafaela 2.8. Boston needs them both on the field.

When you talk "platoon," maybe mention L-R platoon OPS splits, not just BA:

vs RHPs

.825 Wilyer (.842 career) +158

.685 Rafaela (.684 career)

vs LHPs

.603 Rafaela (.610 career) +96!

.532 Wilyer (.514 career)

This is clearly a platoon for the books.

I'm not sure those clutch stats are sustainable.

[Bellhorn04]

Little Raffy's K/BB ratio of 10 to 1 is one that no player has ever sustained.  It's twice as bad as the career marks of Will Middlebrooks and Bobby Dalbec.  He has to find a way to improve that, or he'll be primarily a late inning defensive replacement.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When you talk "platoon," maybe mention L-R platoon OPS splits, not just BA:

vs RHPs

.825 Wilyer (.842 career) +158

.685 Rafaela (.684 career)

vs LHPs

.603 Rafaela (.610 career) +96!

.532 Wilyer (.514 career)

This is clearly a platoon for the books.

I'm not sure those clutch stats are sustainable.

I covered this in my entire first paragraph, but didn't use OPS because it's obvious the difference there is that Rafaela didn't walk. But when he swung the bat, only one Red Sox player drove in more runs (the happy-go-skillful longest tenured face of the franchise).

And whether anyone thinks that is total luck or not, the fact is that Ceddanne Rafaela had more RBIs in his rookie season than Reggie Smith, Ellis Burks, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jackie Bradley. But not Fred Lynn!

(all I'm really saying is that Abreu is not that good, either)

[Bellhorn04]

Little Raffy obviously has tremendous "bat to ball" skills.  It's his approach that he has to alter...somehow.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

(all I'm really saying is that Abreu is not that good, either)

He's a gold glove caliber platoon OFer on a cheap contract. Sign me up.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Little Raffy obviously has tremendous "bat to ball" skills.  It's his approach that he has to alter...somehow.

When he has tried to alter it in the past, the results have been worse. He doesn't know how to be patient. He has zero pitch recognition and will take pitches right down the middle of the plate just to take a pitch. He did it in MiLB, he did it when I saw him in Spring Training last year (take two down the middle and k on a slider away). He's a guy who just needs to be aggressive and rely on his athleticism for better or worse.

[Bellhorn04]

Not a single walk in his last 39 games and 142 PA's.  I just don't see how he can continue like that.  It's never been done.   

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a gold glove caliber platoon OFer on a cheap contract. Sign me up.

I just don't see it on a roster loaded with good young outfielders. When Anthony is here, he may be platooned while he adjusts -- probably with Refsnyder briefly. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I just don't see it on a roster loaded with good young outfielders. When Anthony is here, he may be platooned while he adjusts -- probably with Refsnyder briefly. 

Maybe you sit him against a really great lefty, but I wouldn't put him in a strict platoon. If he's up, he's close to a full timer to me. I'd rather he start vs LHP than Abreu.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I covered this in my entire first paragraph, but didn't use OPS because it's obvious the difference there is that Rafaela didn't walk. But when he swung the bat, only one Red Sox player drove in more runs (the happy-go-skillful longest tenured face of the franchise).

And whether anyone thinks that is total luck or not, the fact is that Ceddanne Rafaela had more RBIs in his rookie season than Reggie Smith, Ellis Burks, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jackie Bradley. But not Fred Lynn!

(all I'm really saying is that Abreu is not that good, either)

It's not just walks and OBP, it's SLG:

.459 Wilyer is damn good for a first full season in MLB.

.390 Ceddanne is not good.

XBHs:

50 Abreu in 447 PAs

43 Ceddanne in 571 PAs (maybe more 2Bs due to better speed and not better power.)

Ceddanne did hit way better in meaningful situations, and I'd like to believe he will continue to do well at that, but there is no evidence to suggest it is a repeatable skill.

I think Abreu is damn good, but he just can't hit lefties. At least that is something easily taken care of by good managing. You can't easily fix Rafaela's issues.

I'm also hopeful Abreu will not slump so badly at the end of 2025. He was at .267/.332/.499/.830 on September 8th. In his last 18 games, he went:

.167/.262/.204/.466  YIKES!

Of course, we could subtract Rafaela's worst 18 games stretch to make his season look better, too.

I like both these guys. I'm fine with them platooning in RF and then seeing Rafaela play CF vs RHPs in many games, too... maybe not 500-600+ PAs, though.

 

 

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Little Raffy's K/BB ratio of 10 to 1 is one that no player has ever sustained.  It's twice as bad as the career marks of Will Middlebrooks and Bobby Dalbec.  He has to find a way to improve that, or he'll be primarily a late inning defensive replacement.  

I don't see that changing much. "Little Raffy" is more accurately called  "Little Bradley".

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I don't see that changing much. "Little Raffy" is more accurately called  "Little Bradley".

hard to keep up that K:BB ratio, but maybe...

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

I don't see that changing much. "Little Raffy" is more accurately called  "Little Bradley".

 

[moonslav59]

Here are some of MLB's highest K rates by non-pitchers along with their BB rates:

Not a complete list

40% Tim Jordan 12%

38% Joey Gallo 15%

37% Dalbec 8%

37% M Sano 12%

35% Zunino 7%

35% Franchy Cordero 8%

28% Wong 6%

27% Rafaela 3%

[moonslav59]

Batters Best Season or current 162 game average, since 2018 (OPS):

.296 41 112 Bregman '19 (1.015)

.311 32 115 Devers '19 (.916)

.291 37 108 Story '18 (.914 & .917 in '19)

.285 21 75 Duran '24 (.834)

.250 31 80 Casas career per 162 (.830 & .856 in '23)

.289 15 72 Yoshida '23 (.783)

.283 11 40 Refsnyder '24 (.830 in 307 PAs & .881 in 2022) .795 w BOS

.263 17 73 Abreu career/162 (.794)

.280 13 52 Wong 2024 (.758 in 487 PAs)

.246 15 72 Rafaela career/162 (.664)

.235  11 40 DHam career/162 (.671) 50 SBs

.291 5 18 Grissom '22 in just 156 PAs (.792)

[moonslav59]

Pitchers Best Seasons:

16-4 2.47 Buehler '21 (171 ERA+ led league)

6-9 2.91 Sandoval '22 (138 ERA+) 0.965 WHIP

9-10 3.12 Houck (137 ERA+)

14-9 3.41 Giolito '19 (134 ERA+)

6-8 4.04 Crawford '23 (113)

12-11 4.24 Bello (107)

6-5 4.08 Criswell (105)

___________________

1.80 (240 ERA+) Hendriks '19 0.965 WHIP (38 svs in '21 w 0.732 WHIP)

1.96 (239 ERA+) Whitlock '21 1.105 WHIP

2.21 (202 ERA+) Chapman '19 1.105 WHIP (1.55 w 276 ERA+ in '16 w 0.862 WHIP)

2,54 (163 ERA+) Wilson '19 1.333 WHIP

2.88 (158) Winckowski '23 1.423 WHIP

2.93 (146) Slaten '24 1.102 WHIP

3.20 (143) Bernardino '23 1.303 WHIP

2.83 (141) I Campbell '23 1.221 WHIP

As with the batters, 2019 was a big year and 6 years ago.

[Bellhorn04]

42 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Here are some of MLB's highest K rates by non-pitchers along with their BB rates:

Not a complete list

40% Tim Jordan 12%

38% Joey Gallo 15%

37% Dalbec 8%

37% M Sano 12%

35% Zunino 7%

35% Franchy Cordero 8%

28% Wong 6%

27% Rafaela 3%

Maybe Rafaela can beat the paradigm.    

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Here are some of MLB's highest K rates by non-pitchers along with their BB rates:

Not a complete list

40% Tim Jordan 12%

38% Joey Gallo 15%

37% Dalbec 8%

37% M Sano 12%

35% Zunino 7%

35% Franchy Cordero 8%

28% Wong 6%

27% Rafaela 3%

Trayce Thompson, who led of for BOS today, had a 43%/13% in 23.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Maybe Rafaela can beat the paradigm.    

Wong's numbers look pretty bad, too, but I read somewhere he reduced his K% by more than any other player in MLB from 2023 to 2024. 33.3% to 23.4%

I can't imagine Ceddanne lasting many more years with a K% of 27% along with a 3 BB%. I guess, if he can hit well enough and have some power, his D can carry him.

[moonslav59]

What would it take to pry a catcher from STL, or some other team with 2 good catchers?

I really think getting a better catcher would solidify this roster.

I'm not sure Wong will be able to repeat his top 5 Offense as a catcher, and his D was horrible in '24.

[notin]

On 2/21/2025 at 7:33 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I covered this in my entire first paragraph, but didn't use OPS because it's obvious the difference there is that Rafaela didn't walk. But when he swung the bat, only one Red Sox player drove in more runs (the happy-go-skillful longest tenured face of the franchise).

And whether anyone thinks that is total luck or not, the fact is that Ceddanne Rafaela had more RBIs in his rookie season than Reggie Smith, Ellis Burks, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jackie Bradley. But not Fred Lynn!

(all I'm really saying is that Abreu is not that good, either)

Abreu is a better overall player than Rafaela, who’s probably the Sox OF most likely to lose his starting role to Anthony (if anyone is)…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

What would it take to pry a catcher from STL, or some other team with 2 good catchers?

I really think getting a better catcher would solidify this roster.

I'm not sure Wong will be able to repeat his top 5 Offense as a catcher, and his D was horrible in '24.

Move Devers to catcher.  Solves soooooo many problems…

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Abreu is a better overall player than Rafaela, who’s probably the Sox OF most likely to lose his starting role to Anthony (if anyone is)…

Rafaela is better than Abreu vs LHPs.

[moonslav59]

Sox injury updates on Crawford, Bello, Giolito, Abreu...

No 6 man rotation announced.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/red-sox-injury-notes-crawford-bello-giolito-rotation-abreu.html

[Bellhorn04]

There's at least one question attached to almost every single Red Sox position player.  

Wong-defense

Casas-health, defense

Bregman-where's he playing

Grissom-does he make team

Campbell-does he make team

Story-health, offense

Devers-where's he playing

Duran-does he regress as projected

Rafaela-offense

Abreu-can he hit lefties

Anthony-does he make team

Yoshida-does he fit at all

 

[moonslav59]

Astros-Cards revived Arenado taks.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There's at least one question attached to almost every single Red Sox position player.  

Wong-defense

Casas-health, defense

Bregman-where's he playing

Grissom-does he make team

Campbell-does he make team

Story-health, offense

Devers-where's he playing

Duran-does he regress as projected

Rafaela-offense

Abreu-can he hit lefties

Anthony-does he make team

Yoshida-does he fit at all

 

True.

Add...

Narvaez: can he hit and is his D as good as some say it is?

DHam: was the middle of 2024 a fluke?

Romy: can he build off 2024 and keep up his nice splits v lefties?

Mayer: can he stay healthy and be healthy if and when Story gets hurt.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There's at least one question attached to almost every single Red Sox position player.  

Wong-defense   What defense?

HCasas-health, defense.  Yes to health.

Bregman-where's he playing.  Boston

Grissom-does he make team. No.

Campbell-does he make team.  Not without help.

Story-health, offense.  Not known for either. 

Devers-where's he playing.  Also Boston.

Duran-does he regress as projected.  Probably.

Rafaela-offense.  What offense?

Abreu-can he hit lefties.  No.  Duh.

Anthony-does he make team.  See Campbell, above

Yoshida-does he fit at all.   He’s small.  He fits anywhere

 

Answered 

[Hugh2]

https://www.soxprospects.com/2025.htm
 

projected opening day rosters.

 

Sox have 3 rookies projected to break camp with the team.  While one gets a lot of attention not a lot of people are talking about Carlos Narvaez, and Luis Guerrero.  Narvaez has tremendous defensive potential behind the dish and if Guerrero is consistent could become a late inning reliable arm in the pen