A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Fine to give your opinion but nothing about why you think Masa will not play much.

Abreu is horrific vs LHPs, so you hate platoons all you want, but Ref is a top 12 batter vs LHPs and will be playing somewhere: OF or DH vs LHPs.

Where and when Yoshida plays is an open book. Nobody knows.

I said what I think they should do, but I am not saying Cora will do it. IMO, he will do a little of what I think and a little of what others think. Maybe, one works better than the other, and he goes that way more often.

I'm not hoping Yoshida plays the OF, a lot. I think Cora will try to play all his players, as he has in the past. How he does it is in question.

I don’t hate platoons, but I have said  for the most part I would rather have 9 everyday players. If Raffy is DH I’m not counting on Masa to be even on the team. I didn’t mention Abreu as being a everyday player, so Ref Man would probably platoon with him.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'm.sure because between him and Bres they have said on 3 separate occasions Rafaela is their CF. Duran has also said he had no problem moving as Rafaela was a gold glove wanting to happen in CF.

Last year doesn't matter. Injuries and revolving doors at several positions meant players (Rafaela in particular) were all over the place.

If we get a raft of injjuries again, anything can happen, but otherwise Duran, Raf, Abreu is our starting alignment with Ref, Yoshida (if he's here) and eventually Anthony swapping in.

I only see one platoon: Abreu and Refsnyder. I had mentioned maybe DHam-Romy at 2B, but Campbell or Bregman at 2B ends that idea.

I don't think Abreu was platooned because of injury or Rafaela playing SS. He was platooned because he sucked vs LHPs, and we used O'Neal and Ref in RF vs almost all LH's SP'ers.

I'm suggesting Rafaela might take some of those RF PAs vs LHPs, because O'Neall is not here, and Rafaela will not likely be used at SS in 2025. Maybe we use Ref there, more.

Who knows, maybe Cora gives Abreu a chance to play FT, but then where does ref play. Only 12 batters in all of MLB have a better OPS vs LHPs over the last 3 year sample size. Tell me why Ref will be benched, because you don't like platoons. Tell me why you think Cora will suddenly not like them, either.

Okay, Cora said 3 times that Rafaela will be the primary CF'er. He also said, at least twice that Yoshida will play some OF. You thought Yoshi would not play OF at all, at first. How does he play OF? not by benching Duran. Not by benching Abreu vs RHPs. What's left?

IMO, Yoshida will play some OF vs RHPs and maybe  a little vs LHPs. How much, I don't know. I'm asking why you think he will not play much, despite quotes from Cora? You use quotes to support your Rafaela position, so why do quotes not support the idea that Yoshida WILL play some OF?

[mvp 78]

Primary doesn't mean 162 games, moon. 

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t hate platoons, but I have said  for the most part I would rather have 9 everyday players. If Raffy is DH I’m not counting on Masa to be even on the team. I didn’t mention Abreu as being a everyday player, so Ref Man would probably platoon with him.

I think everyone would prefer 9 all around players that do not need a platoon, but 4 guys are always on the bench, so sometimes it works out better that you shuffle them around to get the best match-ups.

If you agree that Abreu should be platooned, then the question is by whom, and what positions does that guy play or are other shuffled to make the D better?

It looks like Ref matches the platoon with Abreu much better than Yoshida. This situation does not help Yoshida get OF ABs. Agreed. To find room for Yoshi, it gets complicated. That's why I feel like it's hard to know hw Cora will do it, and what he meant when he said he will play some OF. For who? Both Abreu and Duran bat LH'd, so he won't bump them.

That leaves Rafaela who has had reverse splits, so far and bats RH'd. he is als a great defender, who seems to have made too many unforced errors, so far. I can see why Cora said he wants him as the primary CF'er. I do, too.

Yoshida is a pretty good hitter vs RHPs (.810 career.) Rafaela is at .684 career v RHPs. It's reasonable to expect Yoshi's OF ABs will come at Rafaela's expense. That does not mean a full platoon, but maybe a sizeable number of ABs. We could see Yoshida strt vs most RHPs and Rafaela sub on D, later in games.

Maybe not.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Primary doesn't mean 162 games, moon. 

I know. That's my point. It's not me arguing Yoshi will not take away significant ABs fro Rafaela.

[Hitch]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I only see one platoon: Abreu and Refsnyder. I had mentioned maybe DHam-Romy at 2B, but Campbell or Bregman at 2B ends that idea.

I don't think Abreu was platooned because of injury or Rafaela playing SS. He was platooned because he sucked vs LHPs, and we used O'Neal and Ref in RF vs almost all LH's SP'ers.

I'm suggesting Rafaela might take some of those RF PAs vs LHPs, because O'Neall is not here, and Rafaela will not likely be used at SS in 2025. Maybe we use Ref there, more.

Who knows, maybe Cora gives Abreu a chance to play FT, but then where does ref play. Only 12 batters in all of MLB have a better OPS vs LHPs over the last 3 year sample size. Tell me why Ref will be benched, because you don't like platoons. Tell me why you think Cora will suddenly not like them, either.

Okay, Cora said 3 times that Rafaela will be the primary CF'er. He also said, at least twice that Yoshida will play some OF. You thought Yoshi would not play OF at all, at first. How does he play OF? not by benching Duran. Not by benching Abreu vs RHPs. What's left?

IMO, Yoshida will play some OF vs RHPs and maybe  a little vs LHPs. How much, I don't know. I'm asking why you think he will not play much, despite quotes from Cora? You use quotes to support your Rafaela position, so why do quotes not support the idea that Yoshida WILL play some OF?

Are you confusing me with someone else? If not, I've no idea why you're brining up platoons. I think Res does platoon with Abreu, I've said so in several posts. You've literally replied to me on one of them saying well there goes the elite defence. 

If Rafaela is the starting CFer then he won't be getting platoons with Abreu. 

The reason why I'm inclined to believe Cora and Bres on their comments on Rafaela and not Cora's on Yoshida is because they have been trying everything to get Yoshida out of the club all winter. And Duran has backed up the comments on Rafaela saying he's been told the same  

They're not difficult tea leaves to read.

[moonslav59]

I can see the advantages of playing Rafaela in CF as much as possible, even if it means Yoshida has no designed role in the line-up. It could very well happen. Maybe they rest Rafaela more than Duran and others, just to get Yoshida some time, but maybe not.

I could also see playing Yoshida in the shorter corner OF position vs half or more of the RH'd SP'ers we face. He would not take Duran's or Abreu's PAs, IMO. He might take some of Rafaela's PAs, since he out hits him by about 120 pts, but maybe not.

It's not impossible for Cora to be right about both statements:

Rafaela will be the primary CF'er.

and

Yoshida will get some time in the OF.

Of course, where Devers plays is crucial to the answer. If he DH's, Yoshida gets squeezed- not Ref. Maybe Yoshida squeezes Rafaela, but IMO, not Duran or Abreu or Ref, unless it's their normal day off, and Yoshida fills in to get a scattering of PAs, that way (even if vs a LHP.)

I don't have a big stake in the choice. I love great D, but I also have worries about our offense declining from 2024. Both choices have a clear plus and a clear minus.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hitch said:

Are you confusing me with someone else? If not, I've no idea why you're brining up platoons. I think Res does platoon with Abreu, I've said so in several posts. You've literally replied to me on one of them saying well there goes the elite defence. 

If Rafaela is the starting CFer then he won't be getting platoons with Abreu. 

The reason why I'm inclined to believe Cora and Bres on their comments on Rafaela and not Cora's on Yoshida is because they have been trying everything to get Yoshida out of the club all winter. And Duran has backed up the comments on Rafaela saying he's been told the same  

They're not difficult tea leaves to read.

Yes, sorry. I thought I was responding to red. My bad.

Thank you for giving actual reasons why you feel Rafaela will play almost exclusively in CF.

I will ask this, what OF defense is better, and by how much?

Duran in LF v R, Ref vs L, Rafaela v R/Duran v L in CF and Abreu v R-Rafaela v L in RF.

Duran and Rafaela play near FT. Ref platoons with Abreu but not in fenway's RF.

or

Duran in LF FT, Rafaela in CF FT and Abreu-Ref in RF on a platoon, regardless of it being Fenway or Yankee Stadium.

Now, if Yoshida does play OF, tell me how it happens, and who plays where vs R and v L, or do you think Cora saying Yoshi will play OF was a total smoke screen, perhaps to boost his trade value. (Could be true. I'm not arguing Yoshia will clearly play a significant amount of time in the OF (assuming no injuries.)

Anthony entering the discussion changes the whole situation, whereby I don't see Yoshida having any role, unless devers is at 3B.

 

[Hitch]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, sorry. I thought I was responding to red. My bad.

Thank you for giving actual reasons why you feel Rafaela will play almost exclusively in CF.

I will ask this, what OF defense is better, and by how much?

Duran in LF v R, Ref vs L, Rafaela v R/Duran v L in CF and Abreu v R-Rafaela v L in RF.

Duran and Rafaela play near FT. Ref platoons with Abreu but not in fenway's RF.

or

Duran in LF FT, Rafaela in CF FT and Abreu-Ref in RF on a platoon, regardless of it being Fenway or Yankee Stadium.

Now, if Yoshida does play OF, tell me how it happens, and who plays where vs R and v L, or do you think Cora saying Yoshi will play OF was a total smoke screen, perhaps to boost his trade value. (Could be true. I'm not arguing Yoshia will clearly play a significant amount of time in the OF (assuming no injuries.)

Anthony entering the discussion changes the whole situation, whereby I don't see Yoshida having any role, unless devers is at 3B.

 

No worries, all good. 

Here's the thing, as I've mentioned a few times, I personally don't think Yoshida is getting many games in the outfield. If he was RHed, maybe. But short of giving people a day off their feet, who's he starting for? Who's he platooning? It would only be Rafaela and I don't see it (regularly).

All 3 of Duran. Rafaela and Abreu are capable of winning GGs (another in Abreu's case). That's the best outfield we've had since Mookie, Benny and JBJ. With a potential superstar due to arrive as well. 

After a couple of years of brutal defence, I think they want this.

And look, there's 6 games a week. I'm not saying that every single game is Duran, Rafaela, Abreu/Res, but I'm pretty sure the majority will be until Anthony arrives. And that makes sense to me.

If Devers gets bumped as well, I think you'd be lucky to see Yoshida once a week, barring injuries.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Hitch said:

No worries, all good. 

Here's the thing, as I've mentioned a few times, I personally don't think Yoshida is getting many games in the outfield. If he was RHed, maybe. But short of giving people a day off their feet, who's he starting for? Who's he platooning? It would only be Rafaela and I don't see it (regularly).

All 3 of Duran. Rafaela and Abreu are capable of winning GGs (another in Abreu's case). That's the best outfield we've had since Mookie, Benny and JBJ. With a potential superstar due to arrive as well. 

After a couple of years of brutal defence, I think they want this.

And look, there's 6 games a week. I'm not saying that every single game is Duran, Rafaela, Abreu/Res, but I'm pretty sure the majority will be until Anthony arrives. And that makes sense to me.

If Devers gets bumped as well, I think you'd be lucky to see Yoshida once a week, barring injuries.

I agree, but I think yoshida might play more than 1 out of 6 games, not counting PH'ing.

If Bregman is at 3B and Story stays healthy, our D will be much better. Rafaela could play more CF in 2025 than 2024, while Yoshida still plays 2-4 games a week.

I don't see Yoshida in LF at Fenway as a major down bump in our overall defensive gains. We'd still have Duran in CF and Abreu/Rafaela in RF, which is better than 2024's RF of O'Neall, Abreu & Ref.

Our offense is suspect, and Yoshida's .810 OPS vs RHPs will be hard to bench.

I'm fine with choosing D over O, but that has not always been Cora's M. O. I have my doubts.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

735 Duran

428 Abreu

392 O'Neall

273 Rafaela

235 Refsnyder

17 Romy, Dalbec, Yoshida & Wong.

I think for 2025, Duran is a guy they want to keep on the field as much as possible. 
abreau is a guy that should start against RHP. and refsynder starts against LHP

rafeala is the wild card. Can he hit better and cut down on the strike outs in 2025. 
Yoshida can pick up the some of the at bats from O’Neil. But yoshida and refsynder are probably left fielders only. 
if rafeala makes the adjustment and hits better with less strike outs then this becomes a solid group 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I think for 2025, Duran is a guy they want to keep on the field as much as possible. 
abreau is a guy that should start against RHP. and refsynder starts against LHP

rafeala is the wild card. Can he hit better and cut down on the strike outs in 2025. 
Yoshida can pick up the some of the at bats from O’Neil. But yoshida and refsynder are probably left fielders only. 
if rafeala makes the adjustment and hits better with less strike outs then this becomes a solid group 

 

That's what I was driving at. Maybe they can play RF at Yankee Stadium, but they should not play the larger corner OFs. That leads to the big Q: who then platoons with Abreu in RF?

Not Duran- arm too weak.

That leaves the guy many feel should be entrenched in CF and CF only- Rafaela.

My suggestion, at least for some games vs LHPs, is to have Rafaela in RF, Duran in CF and Ref in LF...not REF in RF, as he played too often in 2024. 

This does not answer how to get Yoshi OF ABs vs RHPs.

[Bellhorn04]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's what I was driving at. Maybe they can play RF at Yankee Stadium, but they should not play the larger corner OFs. That leads to the big Q: who then platoons with Abreu in RF?

Not Duran- arm too weak.

Abreu and Duran will definitely never be a platoon.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Abreu and Duran will definitely never be a platoon.

Indeed, the only one that fits and can play D is Rafaela.

It's not like Duran in CF is some huge loss on D.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed, the only one that fits and can play D is Rafaela.

It's not like Duran in CF is some huge loss on D.

I'm getting mighty confused here.  How could Abreu and Duran possibly be a platoon when they're both lefty hitters? 

You're talking about fielding platoons?

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm getting mighty confused here.  How could Abreu and Duran possibly be a platoon when they're both lefty hitters? 

You're talking about fielding platoons?

Abreu sits vs LHPs and we don't want Ref in RF, who plays RF? 

Duran RF and Rafaela in CF, because Cora said so, or...

Rafaela in RF and a damn good Duran in CF.

My point was NO DURAN in RF.

NO REF or Yoshida in RF, unless it's the shorter corner OF.

[Larry Cook]

Rafeala - CF or RF

abreau - RF 

Duran - LF or CF (but the pop gun arm is scary) 

refsynder - LF 

yoshida - LF 

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Rafeala - CF or RF

abreau - RF 

Duran - LF or CF (but the pop gun arm is scary) 

refsynder - LF 

yoshida - LF 

Yup. If the RF is shorter than LF, flip it.

REF and Yosh DH, if no Devers DH'ing.

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup. If the RF is shorter than LF, flip it.

REF and Yosh DH, if no Devers DH'ing.

For what it's worth, Lou Merloni and Tom Caron also both see it as Duran, Rafaela and Abreu as the main configuration with Raf in CF. They spoke about it on their latest pod.

Take from that what you will. We've got people rubbishing some journalists' reputations whose tweets and updates they've shared on here over the months, so I've no idea where people are with what they believe any longer. 

[oldtimer]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Abreu sits vs LHPs and we don't want Ref in RF, who plays RF? 

Duran RF and Rafaela in CF, because Cora said so, or...

Rafaela in RF and a damn good Duran in CF.

My point was NO DURAN in RF.

NO REF or Yoshida in RF, unless it's the shorter corner OF.

I recommend drastic action now. To me we want to put both the best offensive team available on the field while  also greatly increasing our defensive. Clearly Devers, Casas, Bregman and Story are expected to be the best infield offensive players while only Bregman and Story are considered high caliber defensive players. We do have Campbell as a possible 2nd base prospect who is unproven but may well  be a plus on both the offensive and defensive ends. The drastic action seems to imply either Devers or Casas be moved to DH, Story to remain at short, Bregman to 3rd. Probably Casas should remain at 1st, where he has experience. I would recommend taking a flyer on Campbell from the getgo. The loser in this is Yoshida at DH, who remains a bad fit on the team.

In the outfield we have Duran who is good offensively and Abreau who is only good on one side of the split and Rafaela is currently below average. Yoshida has offensive potential and Anthony is a wild card with high potential. On the defensive side we have Duran again as good as is Abreau and Rafaela. Anthony looks to be high potential while Yoshida is not a quality defensive outfielder. I don't see a major role for Yoshida in  the outfield with Duran, Abreau platooned and hopefully Anthony. I can see Rafaela and Refsnyder as utility especially since Rafaela has infield flexability as well. I had hoped the Sox would have traded Yoshida and perhaps Abreau for one quality right handed outfielder but that didn't happen.

Taking drastic action does risk club house disfunction but  if the problems aren't confronted now they will continnue to fester. 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

For what it's worth, Lou Merloni and Tom Caron also both see it as Duran, Rafaela and Abreu as the main configuration with Raf in CF. They spoke about it on their latest pod.

Take from that what you will. We've got people rubbishing some journalists' reputations whose tweets and updates they've shared on here over the months, so I've no idea where people are with what they believe any longer. 

Abreu will not likely start vs LHPs. Did they give their opinion on who plays RF vs LHPs in the big Fenway RF?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

I recommend drastic action now. To me we want to put both the best offensive team available on the field while  also greatly increasing our defensive. Clearly Devers, Casas, Bregman and Story are expected to be the best infield offensive players while only Bregman and Story are considered high caliber defensive players. We do have Campbell as a possible 2nd base prospect who is unproven but may well  be a plus on both the offensive and defensive ends. The drastic action seems to imply either Devers or Casas be moved to DH, Story to remain at short, Bregman to 3rd. Probably Casas should remain at 1st, where he has experience. I would recommend taking a flyer on Campbell from the getgo. The loser in this is Yoshida at DH, who remains a bad fit on the team.

In the outfield we have Duran who is good offensively and Abreau who is only good on one side of the split and Rafaela is currently below average. Yoshida has offensive potential and Anthony is a wild card with high potential. On the defensive side we have Duran again as good as is Abreau and Rafaela. Anthony looks to be high potential while Yoshida is not a quality defensive outfielder. I don't see a major role for Yoshida in  the outfield with Duran, Abreau platooned and hopefully Anthony. I can see Rafaela and Refsnyder as utility especially since Rafaela has infield flexability as well. I had hoped the Sox would have traded Yoshida and perhaps Abreau for one quality right handed outfielder but that didn't happen.

Taking drastic action does risk club house disfunction but  if the problems aren't confronted now they will continnue to fester. 

We know where the OF will play vs RHPs, at least until Anthony arrives, but name names and positions vs LH'd starters.

[Hitch]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Abreu will not likely start vs LHPs. Did they give their opinion on who plays RF vs LHPs in the big Fenway RF?

I don't believe so, but it was just as I was switching it off, so they may have gone on to mention something. 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Rafeala - CF or RF

abreau - RF 

Duran - LF or CF (but the pop gun arm is scary) 

refsynder - LF 

yoshida - LF 

Duran's arm isn't great, but a lot of CFers have bad arms and his metrics were really good last season in CF.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran's arm isn't great, but a lot of CFers have bad arms and his metrics were really good last season in CF.

Just don't put im in Fenway's RF.

[moonslav59]

If you were the manager, which OF alignments would you choose vs RHPs and LHPs (assuming Devers is DH'ing near FT, so no Yoshida or REF at DH):

vs RHP

A: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF (Great defensive OF)

B: Yoshida LF, Duran CF, Abreu RFR (Not bad D, better O, as Yoshida hits RHPs about 120 pts better)

vs LHP

A: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF (Great defensive OF)

B: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Refsnyder RF (Shaky D in RF, especially in Fenway)

C: Refsnyder LF, Duran CF, Rafaela RF (Not bad D and much better O as Ref is one of MLB's best batters v L)

When Anthony joins the club, a whole new set of choices will be available, and it seems like it might make Rafaela the odd man out or into the super utility man.

LF: Duran/Ref, CF: Anthony/Duran, RF: Abreu/Anthony w no place for Yoshida, at all.

 

[Larry Cook]

Anthony is playing in the outfield for the northwestern game. I am kind of excited to see him 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Anthony is playing in the outfield for the northwestern game. I am kind of excited to see him 

Do we know if it will be CF, RF or LF?

[Larry Cook]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Do we know if it will be CF, RF or LF?

I think LF. But I could be wrong 

[Old Red]

26 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think LF. But I could be wrong 

Anthony LF

Eaton CF

Garcia RF

Campbell/Mayer 2B/SS