A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

On 2/15/2025 at 3:02 PM, notin said:

1.  Losing O’Neill against LHP could be big, but last year the Sox faced a LHSP 43 times while facing a RHSP 119 times.  Why is the focus on the 43 games?

It's part of the reason why I haven't been too focused on the RHB thing the way other posters are. I'd be way more excited over a closer and a great defensive catcher that could frame and hit enough to stick as an MLB regular. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Who is squeezing Ref and Romy out of at bats that makes this team worse? 

Bregman and Campbell are slated to get a lot of at bats where there were 0 last year.  Those two guys are better than Ref and Romy. 

Ref was contemplating retirement. Romy was DFA'd by the White Sox. If they get squeezed, they get squeezed. 

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, Hitch said:

That's starters. If you have a host of left handed hitters in your team, bullpens can be set up to come in and neutralise you over a 3 game series. 

There were 116 LH relievers last season that pitched over 10 innings. Of those, only 68 were above 0.0 fWAR. So each team has maybe 2 lefties to get through and they both aren't going 2 innings each for 3 straight games. C'mon man! 

[Bellhorn04]

On 2/15/2025 at 4:02 PM, notin said:

1.  Losing O’Neill against LHP could be big, but last year the Sox faced a LHSP 43 times while facing a RHSP 119 times.  Why is the focus on the 43 games?

Reason for the focus:

In the 119 they were 64-55

In the 43 they were 17-26

Random noise or meaningful stat nugget?  I honestly don't know.

 

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ref was contemplating retirement. Romy was DFA'd by the White Sox. If they get squeezed, they get squeezed. 

Well, I have to agree with moon that Refsnyder should get as many PA's against lefties as possible.

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, I have to agree with moon that Refsnyder should get as many PA's against lefties as possible.

I think it depends on your roster. 

If they slide Duran to CF and plug Refsynder in left at the expense of Rafaelas bat that's fine. 

But at some point this year the outfield could easily be Campbell/Duran/Anthony. Then who are you taking time away from? in that scenario I don't want to bench any of those 3 guys.  The odds of that happening crash this year if Bregman plays 3B.  This is likely Refs last year regardless.

 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think it depends on your roster. 

If they slide Duran to CF and plug Refsynder in left at the expense of Rafaelas bat that's fine. 

But at some point this year the outfield could easily be Campbell/Duran/Anthony. Then who are you taking time away from? in that scenario I don't want to bench any of those 3 guys.  The odds of that happening crash this year if Bregman plays 3B.  This is likely Refs last year regardless.

 

I'm not a big fan of the arguments that he was contemplating retirement and it might be his last year...  

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Reason for the focus:

In the 119 they were 64-55

In the 43 they were 17-26

Random noise or meaningful stat nugget?  I honestly don't know.

 

Do better in the other 119 games. Also, having Story, Casas and Bregman should go a long way to fixing the 43 games a little. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, I have to agree with moon that Refsnyder should get as many PA's against lefties as possible.

I agree too. He's already on the roster. The only problem is that he's typically useless against RHP. If he's getting squeezed out, it's for Roman Anthony or Kristian Campbell. I don't think he's the first guy squeezed from the roster though. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm not a big fan of the arguments that he was contemplating retirement and it might be his last year...  

He was though? 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He was though? 

I'm not saying they're not true, it's the relevance part I'm questioning.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm not saying they're not true, it's the relevance part I'm questioning.

It's that he's no longer in the prime of his career and is easing into the final phase of calling it quits at some point. He can still be a good player, but I think we should be prepared to see some sort of decline at least mentally. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

It's that he's no longer in the prime of his career and is easing into the final phase of calling it quits at some point. He can still be a good player, but I think we should be prepared to see some sort of decline at least mentally. 

And by "mentally" I mean more of him just being checked out.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's that he's no longer in the prime of his career and is easing into the final phase of calling it quits at some point. He can still be a good player, but I think we should be prepared to see some sort of decline at least mentally. 

By all accounts he's a real pro.  I don't think he would have stuck around unless he was ready to give it a 100% effort.  

So obviously I'm taking the Polly side on this one. 😁

[Hitch]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There were 116 LH relievers last season that pitched over 10 innings. Of those, only 68 were above 0.0 fWAR. So each team has maybe 2 lefties to get through and they both aren't going 2 innings each for 3 straight games. C'mon man! 

I didn't say they were going to go 2 innings each for 3 straight games, but if you're LH heavy it's going to get targeted. Obviously. There's a reason the FO kept saying they needed to get a RH hitter in, whether you think it's relevant or not. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I didn't say they were going to go 2 innings each for 3 straight games, but if you're LH heavy it's going to get targeted. Obviously. There's a reason the FO kept saying they needed to get a RH hitter in, whether you think it's relevant or not. 

How else would LH relievers "neutralize you over the course of a 3 game series?" 

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How else would LH relievers "neutralize you over the course of a 3 game series?" 

I said teams would try to neutralise you over a 3 game series. In part that's by using their left handed pitchers against the part of our line up that was left handed heavy. To anyone not being overly obtuse over this particular subject, it obviously doesn't discount them also using other tools at their disposal from reverse split relievers, relievers with good stats against certain batters or just overpowering relievers alongside this, but it would be clearly something teams would look at.

It is of course possible, all the commentators both within FO's and not that have repeatedly said the Sox badly needed a RHH to balance their line up were just saying it for shits and giggles. 🙅‍♂️

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I said teams would try to neutralise you over a 3 game series. In part that's by using their left handed pitchers against the part of our line up that was left handed heavy. To anyone not being overly obtuse over this particular subject, it obviously doesn't discount them also using other tools at their disposal from reverse split relievers, relievers with good stats against certain batters or just overpowering relievers alongside this, but it would be clearly something teams would look at.

It is of course possible, all the commentators both within FO's and not that have repeatedly said the Sox badly needed a RHH to balance their line up were just saying it for shits and giggles. 🙅‍♂️

I'm not trying to be obtuse, I'm just wondering where the lefties would be used to shut down the lineup. 

Casas and Raffy don't have split issues, so unless you have a really great LHP in your pen, I think the Sox are generally good at the top of the order. The only two regulars who have split issues are Duran and Abreu. You could obviously sub in Refsnyder for Abreu in a key situation. Duran? I guess you just hold your nose and hope he gets the bat on the ball. Duran is going to have that worry regardless of who is batting around him. 

Yoshida had a bad split last year, but was perfectly fine in '23 when healthy. Hard to say if there is a need to worry about him vs LHP this year. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Who is squeezing Ref and Romy out of at bats that makes this team worse? 

Bregman and Campbell are slated to get a lot of at bats where there were 0 last year.  Those two guys are better than Ref and Romy. 

Refsnyder has been a top 20 batter vs LHPs for3 years and has been our best batter vs LHPs over that time. If he does not play, he is being squeezed, by someone. IMO, we have room to play Anthony and Ref, as Abreu sits vs LHPs. Duran would be the 3rd OF'er. I would not play Rafaela over Ref vs LHPs. If we let Yoshida DH FT rather than use Ref vs LHPs, Yoshida would be squeezing Ref. If Devers and or Casas play DH, then Ref has to play OF vs LHPs. He does not need to be squeezed, and he should not be benched v lefties. Only 12 batters in all of MLB have a higher OPS vs LHPs and more PAs than Ref since 2022. None are on the Sox team.  Benching him makes us worse. Tell me how it doesn't?

Romy's 2024 could very well be a fluke, so I agree, it may not really be a squeeze, if Campbell starts over him, but if Romy's 2024 numbers vs lefties was not a fluke, it's hard to expect Campbell to beat his numbers. He can, but maybe not, and we'd be seeing a drop in numbers vs LHPs, if he does not. Romy hit .879 vs LHPs in 2024. His 130 PAs vs LHPs placed 7th on the team, so it's not like he made a major impact in '24, but he was one of our best batters vs lefties, and he is facing a benching or demotion.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Ref was contemplating retirement. Romy was DFA'd by the White Sox. If they get squeezed, they get squeezed. 

Why squeeze the 13th best batter vs LHPs since 2022? Why does it matter that he almost retired?

Romy, I can see, as 2024 could have just been a fluke, and our IF is crowded. However, Bregman does not have great splits vs LHPs. That being said, I do not bench Bregman to play Romy. If Campbell is on the 26, he should play FT, but he could play 2B vs RHPs and OF vs LHPs, to allow Romy to play, but that would squeeze Ref out of his slot, so no. I do NOT have an issue with Campbell playing over Romy, but if Campbell is in AAA, I'd go with DHam-Romy at 2B, Bregman at 3B, Casas/Devers at 1B/DH and Ref in the OF vs LHPs as Abreu sits. Ref should not be squeezed. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I agree too. He's already on the roster. The only problem is that he's typically useless against RHP. If he's getting squeezed out, it's for Roman Anthony or Kristian Campbell. I don't think he's the first guy squeezed from the roster though. 

There is room for Ref, Campbell and Anthony vs LHPs:

2B: Campbell

LF: Refsnyder

CF: Duran

RF: Anthony

(Abreu and Rafaela sit vs LHPs.)

Bregman at 3B and Devers/Casas share 1B/DH.

No squeeze needed.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why squeeze the 13th best batter vs LHPs since 2022? Why does it matter that he almost retired?

Romy, I can see, as 2024 could have just been a fluke, and our IF is crowded. However, Bregman does not have great splits vs LHPs. That being said, I do not bench Bregman to play Romy. If Campbell is on the 26, he should play FT, but he could play 2B vs RHPs and OF vs LHPs, to allow Romy to play, but that would squeeze Ref out of his slot, so no. I do NOT have an issue with Campbell playing over Romy, but if Campbell is in AAA, I'd go with DHam-Romy at 2B, Bregman at 3B, Casas/Devers at 1B/DH and Ref in the OF vs LHPs as Abreu sits. Ref should not be squeezed. 

I'm just saying that if there really is a squeeze for Refsnyder, it's because a better option has appeared in combination with a possible decline from Refsnyder. If Refsnyder is still mashing 900 OPS vs LHP, he's not going anywhere at his contract. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm just saying that if there really is a squeeze for Refsnyder, it's because a better option has appeared in combination with a possible decline from Refsnyder. If Refsnyder is still mashing 900 OPS vs LHP, he's not going anywhere at his contract. 

Of course, if Ref is doing worse and someone else is doing better, who would be against a swap-out?

I think Ref has earned a long leash vs LHPs, though. As I pointed out, Ref need not be squeezed, even if Campbell and Anthony are playing FT. He'd need to be beat out by Yoshida, Abreu or Rafaela, and none seem likely to be mashing lefties better than Ref, even if Ref slips to .800 or maybe even .750 or below.

Romy can and should be squeezed, if Campbell becomes the FT 2Bman. I have no issue, there, even if Campbell begins his career with reverse splits. He needs to play FT or be in AAA. I don't see us juggling Campbell between 2B and the OF, just to get Romy time at 2B vs LHPs, but if Anthony is still in AAA, and we decide to play Bregman at 3B FT, I could see this:

2B: Campbell v R/ Romy v L

LF:  Duran v R/Ref v L

CF: Rafaela v R/Duran v L

RF: Abreu v R/Campbell v L

This assumes Romy is still mashing lefties through ST'ing and makes the 26. This may very well not happen.

 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course, if Ref is doing worse and someone else is doing better, who would be against a swap-out?

 

Glad you agree that we can squeeze out Refsnyder!

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Glad you agree that we can squeeze out Refsnyder!

Well, after you moved the goalposts to an entirely different scenario, yes.

I still doubt he gets squeezed, even if he struggles for a month or two, and everyone else is raking.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, after you moved the goalposts to an entirely different scenario, yes.

I still doubt he gets squeezed, even if he struggles for a month or two, and everyone else is raking.

It wasn't a different scenario. My scenario was Refsnyder getting squeezed out. Why would he be squeezed out? Because someone better comes along. If he's hitting 900 vs LHP, it's hard to see someone beating him out for a bench spot. If he slides back, as happens to many players that turn 34, he could get squeezed out. 

Where's the goalpost movement? 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

It wasn't a different scenario. My scenario was Refsnyder getting squeezed out. Why would he be squeezed out? Because someone better comes along. If he's hitting 900 vs LHP, it's hard to see someone beating him out for a bench spot. If he slides back, as happens to many players that turn 34, he could get squeezed out. 

Where's the goalpost movement? 

You never mentioned Ref getting worse. He can hit .800 and likely still be better than Campbell or Anthony v LHPs, and certainly ebtter than his real squeezers: Rafaela, Abreu and Yoshida.

He only gets squeezed, legitimately, if he's hitting under what Abreu, Rafaela and Yoshida are hitting vs LHPs, and over a few months. This is a pretty far-fetched scenario, IMO.

It was not mentioned, before, so I view it as moving the goalposts.

[Hitch]

Devers has spoken -

 

“Third base is my position,” Devers told reporters through a translator Monday. “It’s what I’ve played. I don’t know what their plans are. I know we had a conversation — I made it clear what my desires were. Whatever happens from here, I don’t know.”

[moonslav59]

Devers does not strike me as a prolonged pouter. I doubt he escalates this to demand a trade.

Suck it up, dude, and do what's best for the team.

I hope he asks to try 1B before being relegated to DH. I think he can do better than the worst defensive 1Bman in MLB, Casas.

[FredLynn]

9 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I think it depends on your roster. 

If they slide Duran to CF and plug Refsynder in left at the expense of Rafaelas bat that's fine. 

But at some point this year the outfield could easily be Campbell/Duran/Anthony. Then who are you taking time away from? in that scenario I don't want to bench any of those 3 guys.  The odds of that happening crash this year if Bregman plays 3B.  This is likely Refs last year regardless.

 

Rafaela doesn’t have a bat. Unless he can stop chasing so many bad pitches he should be a defensive replacement like Bradley should have been.

And now it seems that Devers is indeed having a tantrum about moving off 3B for the good of the team. He claimed that “third base is where I play”. Nice attitude Raffy. It’s not all about HIM. It’s a team sport. He should be penciled in wherever Cora wants him to play and if he continues to pout I’d sit him on the pine.