A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why is his 2023-2024 ISO top 25% in MLB, but he falls to the bottom 18th percentile?

Why should I trust statcast over fangraph's rankings?

I'm not trying to bust your balls, or say you are wrong.

You can get xSLG on FanGraphs too, where Paredes is 124 out of 129 qualified hitters in 2024. 

xISO is just calculated by xSLG - xBA and xBA is also on FanGraphs. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You can get xSLG on FanGraphs too, where Paredes is 124 out of 129 qualified hitters in 2024. 

xISO is just calculated by xSLG - xBA and xBA is also on FanGraphs. 

Okay. Thanks.

I like to use 270 batter sample sizes to get a true read on where a player ranks (30 teams x 9 batters.)

129 batters is about 4.5 batters per team, so 124th could be out 134th out of 270, as the worse hitters normally are not top 129 batters in PAs.

On ISO. I don't get the 18th percentile. fangraphs has him 46th out of 138 qualifiers since 2023. I may not be great in Math, but that is not bottom 18th %. He's 85th out of 129 for 2024, only. That's bottom 34% not 18%.

Do they calculate ISO differently?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay. Thanks.

I like to use 270 batter sample sizes to get a true read on where a player ranks (30 teams x 9 batters.)

129 batters is about 4.5 batters per team, so 124th could be out 134th out of 270, as the worse hitters normally are not top 129 batters in PAs.

On ISO. I don't get the 18th percentile. fangraphs has him 46th out of 138 qualifiers since 2023. I may not be great in Math, but that is not bottom 18th %. He's 85th out of 129 for 2024, only. That's bottom 34% not 18%.

Do they calculate ISO differently?

It's xISO, not ISO. 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's xISO, not ISO. 

So, that means it's adjusted for what? park factors?

I'd be curious what percentile he'd be in, if they used a 270 player sample size.

Your numbers do show he is not likely to be top 50% in even that size sample, but he might be close.

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, that means it's adjusted for what? park factors?

I'd be curious what percentile he'd be in, if they used a 270 player sample size.

Your numbers do show he is not likely to be top 50% in even that size sample, but he might be close.

 

xISO uses statcast data (EV, launch angle) to determine probabilities for expected extra base hits. Since Paredes overperforms his xISO, there is an assumption on my part that he is going to fall down to earth with his baseball card numbers and it could get kind of ugly. If he's not a flyball hitter, that Monster is going to turn his HRs into 2B's which will greatly reduce his SLG. For a guy without a lot of extra base hits to begin with, less than Bryan De La Cruz, it's not going to be a big boon for him to move to a stadium like Fenway. Only 26 of his career 72 HR would have been a HR at BAL. 

[notin]

On 2/10/2025 at 9:42 AM, mvp 78 said:

Vegas isn't about realistic win/loss, but about what people will bet for/against. I think 85 seems right to me without further additions.

I don't think I've projected them to be a 90 win team since 2019. 

Exactly.

 

Vegas projections are influenced by non-baseball factors, such as the volume of bets placed…

[Bellhorn04]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

Exactly.

 

Vegas projections are influenced by non-baseball factors, such as the volume of bets placed…

They are, but the starting lines are generally an accurate reflection of reality.  The point spreads in football are designed to make it a coin toss, so you get equal betting on both sides.  If there's inordinate betting on one side they move it.  Buffalo Bills fans are known to bet on their team a little irrationally so the spread will reflect that. 

 

[moonslav59]

I don't think 81 wins was a fluke, last year. I think we got better, TOR got better, NYY might have, BAL and TBR did not. I'm thinking 85 wins, as of now.

[moonslav59]

Do you give...

Fitts & Cespedes for Herrera and Arenado + $8M x 3 yrs?

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Do you give...

Fitts & Cespedes for Herrera and Arenado + $8M x 3 yrs?

They need to find a better defensive catcher long term IMO. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They need to find a better defensive catcher long term IMO. 

Herrera is not good on D?

(Word is Narvaez is supposed to be good. Can he hit, well enough?)

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Herrera is not good on D?

(Word is Narvaez is supposed to be good. Can he hit, well enough?)

This is going to be an important training camp for many of our younger players! 

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

This is going to be an important training camp for many of our younger players! 

Indeed, and several vets, too.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Herrera is not good on D?

(Word is Narvaez is supposed to be good. Can he hit, well enough?)

Fielding Run Value -1 per Statcast

He's not a complete dog like Wong was last year.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Fielding Run Value -1 per Statcast

He's not a complete dog like Wong was last year.

Good to know. He is younger, and near average is a big boost up from Wong.

How good is Pages?

[moonslav59]

We've beaten the injured pitcher issue to death, and the trade of oft-injured Sale and his subsequent turn-around and injury right before the playoffs sparked a heated debate. Here is a look at our 2025 pitchers and their injury history.

Crochet: TJS in '22 and recently converted to a SP'er.

Houck: Back surgery in '22 and missed time with facial fracture in '23.

Buehler: has a long history of injuries: Rib, elbow and hip along with blisters

Giolito: had pretty good durable stretch until March '24, when he had the internal brace procedure on his elbow.

Bello: missed time in the minors and had a Lat and back issue in '24, but missed very little time.

Crawford: I'm not sure why he did not get over 96 IP in the minors in 2019 and 2021, but he's been healthy in the bigs.

Hendriks: TJS in August '23- had set backs in '24.

Chapman: Seems to have stayed relatively healthy, but he turns 37, soon.

Slaten: missed time in '24- not sure about minors.

Whitlock: has missed a lot of time over the years w BOS, and had major surgery in minors.

Fulmer: has not pitched in a long time.

Mata: is the poster boy for missing time with injuries.

Murphy: missing almost 2 years

 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Good to know. He is younger, and near average is a big boost up from Wong.

How good is Pages?

I believe he's supposed to be a better defensive catcher, but he couldn't throw anyone out last year. Blocks and framing were fine. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Crawford: I'm not sure why he did not get over 96 IP in the minors in 2019 and 2021, but he's been healthy in the bigs.

What is an injury that causes pitchers to miss substantial time over the course of multiple seasons? 

TJS!!!

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What is an injury that causes pitchers to miss substantial time over the course of multiple seasons? 

TJS!!!

Crawford had TJS, too?

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Crawford had TJS, too?

From BA:

In the summer of 2017, one inning into his professional career after being taken out of Florida Gulf Coast as a 16th-round pick, Kutter Crawford experienced elbow discomfort.

It was enough to shut the righthander down for the duration of his first pro summer, but not enough for surgery.

But he was pitching through discomfort that steadily grew and ultimately forced him to have Tommy John surgery after the 2019 season.

 

During rehab, he had more discomfort and had a second surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow which pushed his rehab out further. 

[moonslav59]

I did not remember Kutter's TJS. Wow, yet one more to the list.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I did not remember Kutter's TJS. Wow, yet one more to the list.

Me either until you mentioned that he missed a bunch of time. 

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Me either until you mentioned that he missed a bunch of time. 

So, 4 of our 6 starters had TJS or the internal brace thingy and Houck had back surgery.

[Bellhorn04]

It's getting to the point only a freak of nature can have a 10 year career with no TJ.

[moonslav59]

How many times have we signed someone like Paxton and Hendriks, where the ETA was July or August, but they missed the full first year of the two year contract?

What are the odds we see Sandoval by August?

Paxton lasted 19 starts in '23. Let's see what Hendriks gives us in '25.

Am I missing someone else?

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's getting to the point only a freak of nature can have a 10 year career with no TJ.

Seems like it. As long as it's only one! The second one is the tougher one to come back from. 

[Larry Cook]

Injuries are a part of the game 

[moonslav59]

Depending on how much of Bregman's contract is deferred, we may be very close to the first tax line.

Next focus:

1. Add a RP.

2. Work on extensions for Crochet, Campbell, Anthony and maybe Houck.

[Hitch]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Depending on how much of Bregman's contract is deferred, we may be very close to the first tax line.

Next focus:

1. Add a RP.

2. Work on extensions for Crochet, Campbell, Anthony and maybe Houck.

I'be be surprised if either a RP coming in and/or Crochet gets extended now.  

Crochet mentioned yesterday (paraphrasing) that while and extension could be interesting, he kind of wants to see what he can do this year so that he can negotiate under his true value. Make sense. 

I think we're probably done now. Arenado must be feeling sick right now. Unless they do have that one remaining crazy deal up their sleeves. 

[Hugh2]

17 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's getting to the point only a freak of nature can have a 10 year career with no TJ.

Which begs the question, when you're looking to sign or trade for a guy who has been in the league for 4-7 years with no injuries are you getting a freak of nature, or are you getting a guy whose luck is about to run out.