Diamondbacks (Nelson) vs Red Sox (Bello): 8/23/24, 7:10pm

[Maxbialystock]

I don't care that some here consider this as Devers best season, but when the team's best hitter has only 77 RBI at this point in the season with the number of RISP he's had this season, imho, is very disappointing.

Batting in the .230's with RISP pretty much overshadows his other polished stats.

 

Singling out anyone tonight is sheer folly. The Sox lost, 12-2.

 

Devers has had a bad August so far, OPS .767 and just 7 rbi's. Last month his OPS was 1.132 with 24 rbi's. In June, 1.015 OPS and 19 rbi's. In May, .919 OPS and 19 rbi's.

 

Are you with me, sweetheart?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Singling out anyone tonight is sheer folly. The Sox lost, 12-2.

 

Devers has had a bad August so far, OPS .767 and just 7 rbi's. Last month his OPS was 1.132 with 24 rbi's. In June, 1.015 OPS and 19 rbi's. In May, .919 OPS and 19 rbi's.

 

Are you with me, sweetheart?

 

Again, his BA with RISP is in the .230's.

Are you with me, sweet cheeks?

Edited August 24, 2024 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[Maxbialystock]

I guess the SOX playing at Fenway neutralizes having a RH on the mound.

 

The Sox lost, 12-2, because tonight the Diamondbacks had better pitching and better hitting. The Diamonds had a lot of lefty bats in their lineup and didn't need the green monster--at least, not until the 7th when righty bat Suarez got the grand slam off of righty pitcher Winckowski. Devers, Yohsida, Jansen, Hamilton, and Rafaela all went hitless for the Sox. Ref had one hit, but when he had the bases loaded, he struck out on 3 pitches. That kind of night.

[moonslav59]

I don't care that some here consider this as Devers' best season, but when the team's best hitter has only 77 RBI at this point in the season with the number of RISP he's had this season, imho, is very disappointing.

Batting in the .230's with RISP pretty much overshadows his other polished stats.

 

I'm not sure this is his best season, despite the OPS+ blowing all other away. Within the context of a down offensive season by the league, maybe it should be viewed as the best.

 

As far as RISP and Men on Base, the sample sizes are rather small, but not insignificant. To cite the .236 BA w RISP without mentioning his .368 OBP hides all the BBs, he's taken. The decent .462 SLG gives him an .830 OPS. Once you take away the BBs and SFs, he's had just 106 ABs w RISP and has 45 RBIs. (Check out other years below my Men on Base point.

 

He is hitting .296 w Men on Base, with a .382 OBP, .565 SLG and .947 OPS.

216 ABs and 61 RBIs.

 

Many view 2019 as his best season, and he did do much better w RISP, but with a lot more ABs. His Men on Base numbers were mixed, but also more ABs:

RISP (152 ABs) .336 BA, .387 OBP, .566 SLG and .953 OPS

Men on Base (275 AB) .320, .368, .535, .902 and 93 RBI

 

How about 2022, maybe his other top 3 season:

RISP: 125 ABs/55 RBIs (.256 BA, .377 OBP, .496 SLG, .873 OPS)

Men on Base: 235 AB/76 RBI (.298/.380/.557/.938)

 

Your point is well taken, but with spread out sample sizes of 125-235 ABs, one would expect some differentials. I'm not sure we can read too much into them.

 

Here is an interesting way to look at RBIs and Devers.

Career: 632 RBIs in 4111 PAs and 3712 ABs

That's an RBI in 15.4% of PAs and 17.0% of his ABs.

 

2024: 15.4% of his PAs and 17.7% of his ABs.

 

Hmmmm....

 

 

[FredLynn]

At this point I'd say ownership is the problem. Has been for quite a while.

 

For this season, I'd also throw in long term injuries to important positions.

 

Inasmuch as ownership has hired GMs who never properly evaluated, acquired, and developed pitching then you’re right.

The direct problem is lack of pitching.

[Maxbialystock]

Again, his BA with RISP is in the .230's.

Are you with me, swwet cheeks?

 

He still has the highest OPS on the team, the most rbi's (77 to Duran's 64), the 2d most runs scored, the 2d most total bases, the most dingers, the 2d most triples--true--and the most BB's. And he has done all that with a bad shoulder that Cora has commented on. He rarely DH's and has played the 3d most games, 114, after Duran and Rafaela.

 

Get off his back.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I'm not sure this is his best season, despite the OPS+ blowing all other away. Within the context of a down offensive season by the league, maybe it should be viewed as the best.

 

As far as RISP and Men on Base, the sample sizes are rather small, but not insignificant. To cite the .236 BA w RISP without mentioning his .368 OBP hides all the BBs, he's taken. The decent .462 SLG gives him an .830 OPS. Once you take away the BBs and SFs, he's had just 106 ABs w RISP and has 45 RBIs. (Check out other years below my Men on Base point.

 

He is hitting .296 w Men on Base, with a .382 OBP, .565 SLG and .947 OPS.

216 ABs and 61 RBIs.

 

Many view 2019 as his best season, and he did do much better w RISP, but with a lot more ABs. His Men on Base numbers were mixed, but also more ABs:

RISP (152 ABs) .336 BA, .387 OBP, .566 SLG and .953 OPS

Men on Base (275 AB) .320, .368, .535, .902 and 93 RBI

 

How about 2022, maybe his other top 3 season:

RISP: 125 ABs/55 RBIs (.256 BA, .377 OBP, .496 SLG, .873 OPS)

Men on Base: 235 AB/76 RBI (.298/.380/.557/.938)

 

Your point is well taken, but with spread out sample sizes of 125-235 ABs, one would expect some differentials. I'm not sure we can read too much into them.

 

Here is an interesting way to look at RBIs and Devers.

Career: 632 RBIs in 4111 PAs and 3712 ABs

That's an RBI in 15.4% of PAs and 17.0% of his ABs.

 

2024: 15.4% of his PAs and 17.7% of his ABs.

 

Hmmmm....

 

 

 

Good research, MOON, but numbers don't hide what I see game in and game out. Runner on base isn't the same as runners in scoring position. He's been poor at that this season. His numbers there don't lie.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

He still has the highest OPS on the team, the most rbi's (77 to Duran's 64), the 2d most runs scored, the 2d most total bases, the most dingers, the 2d most triples--true--and the most BB's. And he has done all that with a bad shoulder that Cora has commented on. He rarely DH's and has played the 3d most games, 114, after Duran and Rafaela.

 

Get off his back.

 

 

So, Devers has all these high stats with a sore shoulder. Interesting, although I wouldn't consider 77 RBI that high considering his number of opportunities.

And I'll get off his back when I feel like it.

[moonslav59]

Good research, MOON, but numbers don't hide what I see game in and game out. Runner on base isn't the same as runners in scoring position. He's been poor at that this season. His numbers there don't lie.

 

No, the numbers tell the truth: he is batting in RISP at exactly his career rate (15.4%) and just has less ABs than other years.

 

The numbers show he has more RBIs with Men on base than his career norm: 17.7% compared to 17%.

 

Blaming him for coming up to bat less often with men in RISP or on base, or walking more than usual seems harsh.

 

Plus, he basically had a bad 5 weeks in these situations, to start the season, and has been back in form or better, ever since.

[moonslav59]

So, Devers has all these high stats with a sore shoulder. Interesting, although I wouldn't consider 77 RBI that high considering his number of opportunities.

And I'll get off his back when I feel like it.

 

Okay, let's forget the fact that he has been walked more with RISP or on base and just look at RBIs per 650 PAs. After all, this season is not over.

 

77 RBIs in 497 PAs= 101 per 650.

 

Career: 632 RBI in 4111 PAs= 99.9 RBI per 650.

Take away 2024 from his career, and before 2024, he averaged 99.8 RBI/650

 

There is a reason why many view RBIs as a team-fueled stat, and not all the individual.

[moonslav59]

He still has the highest OPS on the team, the most rbi's (77 to Duran's 64), the 2d most runs scored, the 2d most total bases, the most dingers, the 2d most triples--true--and the most BB's. And he has done all that with a bad shoulder that Cora has commented on. He rarely DH's and has played the 3d most games, 114, after Duran and Rafaela.

 

Get off his back.

 

Yes, and being second to Duran in many stats is no slight, either.

 

Duran might get some MVP votes, if the team makes it to the dance.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

No, the numbers tell the truth: he is batting in RISP at exactly his career rate (15.4%) and just has less ABs than other years.

 

The numbers show he has more RBIs with Men on base than his career norm: 17.7% compared to 17%.

 

Blaming him for coming up to bat less often with men in RISP or on base, or walking more than usual seems harsh.

 

Plus, he basically had a bad 5 weeks in these situations, to start the season, and has been back in form or better, ever since.

 

I wii say that this has definitely been Devers' best season defensively.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Okay, let's forget the fact that he has been walked more with RISP or on base and just look at RBIs per 650 PAs. After all, this season is not over.

 

77 RBIs in 497 PAs= 101 per 650.

 

Career: 632 RBI in 4111 PAs= 99.9 RBI per 650.

Take away 2024 from his career, and before 2024, he averaged 99.8 RBI/650

 

There is a reason why many view RBIs as a team-fueled stat, and not all the individual.

 

 

Manny and Papi say "hold my beer."

[moonslav59]

It's not just a better OPS. I guess we should blame him for blowing away his previous BB% rate. (11% in 2024 and 8% the rest of his career.)

.296 BA is second highest ever (.311 in '19.)

.371 OBP highest (.361 in '19)

.578 SLG highest (.555 in '19)

.284 ISO highest by a ton (.259 in '21)

.393 wOBA highest by 20 points (.373 in '21 & '22)

152 wRC+ highest by 12 (140 in '21)

(Even is 4.8 Spd number is second only to 4.9 in 2019)

He has GIDP way less than the rest of his career.

 

He's batting in runs at slightly better than his career rate, and that deserves criticism?

[moonslav59]

I wii say that this has definitely been Devers' best season defensively.

 

I disagree on this, too.

 

He was significantly better in 2019 and 2022.

 

OAA

+17 2019

-2 2022

-7 2024 (on pace for more)

 

DRS

-5 2019 (many more innings)

-6 2022

-7 2024

 

He was significantly worse in 2017 & 2020.

 

He's been all over the map both within almost every season and from season to season. He has done much better since the first 6-8 weeks, but the season has not been his best, IMO.

[moonslav59]

Manny and Papi say "hold my beer."

 

Those two have nothing to do with this being the best, second best or third best season by Devers.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not just a better OPS. I guess we should blame him for blowing away his previous BB% rate. (11% in 2024 and 8% the rest of his career.)

.296 BA is second highest ever (.311 in '19.)

.371 OBP highest (.361 in '19)

.578 SLG highest (.555 in '19)

.284 ISO highest by a ton (.259 in '21)

.393 wOBA highest by 20 points (.373 in '21 & '22)

152 wRC+ highest by 12 (140 in '21)

(Even is 4.8 Spd number is second only to 4.9 in 2019)

He has GIDP way less than the rest of his career.

 

He's batting in runs at slightly better than his career rate, and that deserves criticism?

 

Where Devers has really struggled this year is hitting with multiple men on base.

 

1-2 35 PA .698 OPS

1-3 16 PA .558 OPS

2-3 11 PA .705 OPS

1-2-3 6 PA .000 OPS

Total 68 PA 142 men on base 1 HR 28 RBI

 

It really has been an issue this year, he has squandered some big opportunities. I expect most of it is randomness, but it has been a thing.

[Randy Red Sox]

The hammer

Outta here

These guys are BUMS!

 

that truly is pathetic but I doubt Henry notices because he doesn't attend home games

[moonslav59]

Where Devers has really struggled this year is hitting with multiple men on base.

 

1-2 35 PA .698 OPS

1-3 16 PA .558 OPS

2-3 11 PA .705 OPS

1-2-3 6 PA .000 OPS

Total 68 PA 142 men on base 1 HR 28 RBI

 

It really has been an issue this year, he has squandered some big opportunities. I expect most of it is randomness, but it has been a thing.

 

LOL.

 

A 6 PA sample size.

[Bellhorn04]

LOL.

 

A 6 PA sample size.

 

The intent was not a sample of 6 but a granulated sample of 68.

 

In 68 PA's with multiple men on base he has an OPS of .605.

[notin]

The intent was not a sample of 6 but a granulated sample of 68.

 

In 68 PA's with multiple men on base he has an OPS of .605.

 

He’s no Pat Tabler…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There's no stat for this, but someone will probably try to find one anyway: Devers has no superstar protection batting directly after him in the line-up. I've been worried about this since last winter...

 

He's drawing more walks -- and expanding the zone -- because teams have no reason to throw him anything he can reach in a big spot. If you watch enough games, you recognize the plan: "pitch around him -- if he swings at crap, we get him out; if he doesn't, we'll get the next guy... just don't let Devers beat us." The Seattle manager who did, lost the game, and just lost his job (maybe it was a coincidence).

 

Refsnyder, Wong and O'Neill have all had productive seasons, and heroic moments, but none of them are as feared with a bat like Raffy, the Red Sox' record-setting 28-year old. Maybe Casas, once he shows he's fully healed (if possible this season), can bat behind Devers.

 

Or maybe someone like Anthony or Campbell can soon be that guy, so Raffy can finally have a Manny-Papi or Judge-Soto season. Put it this way: does any fan think Devers has truly peaked, and is incapable of an even better career year someday?

[notin]

There's no stat for this, but someone will probably try to find one anyway: Devers has no superstar protection batting directly after him in the line-up. I've been worried about this since last winter...

 

He's drawing more walks -- and expanding the zone -- because teams have no reason to throw him anything he can reach in a big spot. If you watch enough games, you recognize the plan: "pitch around him -- if he swings at crap, we get him out; if he doesn't, we'll get the next guy... just don't let Devers beat us." The Seattle manager who did, lost the game, and just lost his job (maybe it was a coincidence).

 

Refsnyder, Wong and O'Neill have all had productive seasons, and heroic moments, but none of them are as feared with a bat like Raffy, the Red Sox' record-setting 28-year old. Maybe Casas, once he shows he's fully healed (if possible this season), can bat behind Devers.

 

Or maybe someone like Anthony or Campbell can soon be that guy, so Raffy can finally have a Manny-Papi or Judge-Soto season. Put it this way: does any fan think Devers has truly peaked, and is incapable of an even better career year someday?

 

Here is an article that definitively says lineup protection exists, complete with numerous quotes from many recently retired players. (It’s a few years old.)

 

Of course, it concludes that lineup protection leads to an uptick in walks, which is exactly what not protecting your best hitter also leads to (if he’s patient). So their claim that it exists proves it doesn’t.

 

And in this age of analytics, where many players have their weaknesses mapped out and where OBP is valued more than it used to be, the notion of walking hitters rather than attacking their weaknesses seems far less likely…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here is an article that definitively says lineup protection exists, complete with numerous quotes from many recently retired players. (It’s a few years old.)

 

Of course, it concludes that lineup protection leads to an uptick in walks, which is exactly what not protecting your best hitter also leads to (if he’s patient). So their claim that it exists proves it doesn’t.

 

And in this age of analytics, where many players have their weaknesses mapped out and where OBP is valued more than it used to be, the notion of walking hitters rather than attacking their weaknesses seems far less likely…

 

No link?

 

Despite the old timey saying, a walk isn't as good as a hit -- not for moving baserunners, that is. A well-placed or hard-hit single (think, off-the-wall at Fenway) often moves runners two bases -- or even three, sometimes, if you're Duran or Mookie dancing off first. Yes, I'm referring to Betts scoring the walk-off run in his final game as a Red Sox, on a bouncing single by Raffy.

 

Boston has so many big whiffers these days, how about batting their best contact man -- Yoshida -- after their best power guy? He's no righty, but then again, he's no Romy Gonzalez, either...

[Bellhorn04]

Here is an article that definitively says lineup protection exists, complete with numerous quotes from many recently retired players. (It’s a few years old.)

 

Of course, it concludes that lineup protection leads to an uptick in walks, which is exactly what not protecting your best hitter also leads to (if he’s patient). So their claim that it exists proves it doesn’t.

 

And in this age of analytics, where many players have their weaknesses mapped out and where OBP is valued more than it used to be, the notion of walking hitters rather than attacking their weaknesses seems far less likely…

 

OTOH, if you flip the scenario to a defensive one, there are definitely situations in which you would rather walk the other team's best hitter than pitch to him.

 

The situational factor is pretty key here I think.

Edited August 24, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

No link?

 

Despite the old timey saying, a walk isn't as good as a hit -- not for moving baserunners, that is. A well-placed or hard-hit single (think, off-the-wall at Fenway) often moves runners two bases -- or even three, sometimes, if you're Duran or Mookie dancing off first. Yes, I'm referring to Betts scoring the walk-off run in his final game as a Red Sox, on a bouncing single by Raffy.

 

Boston has so many big whiffers these days, how about batting their best contact man -- Yoshida -- after their best power guy? He's no righty, but then again, he's no Romy Gonzalez, either...

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/5/19/8614817/lineup-protection-myth-reality-exists

 

 

I so meant to attach that but failed. Oops.

 

It’s not about whether or not a walk is as good as a hit. That’s something Little League coaches tell kids as they try to convince them a hit really does differ from a fielder’s choice.

 

The article talks about how protection leads to more walks. But that’s what not protecting also leads to…

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

You're an idiot. Breslow sabotaged this team--not intentionally, of course--by dumping Sale to the Braves while still paying him $17M and picking up Giolito for $19M x 2 years, one of which is already down the drain. He also failed to bring in any real bullpen help.

 

The heart of the Sox lineup, which has made a winning season possible, was here when Breslow arrived: Duran, Abreu, Casas, Abreu, Devers, Wong, Rafaela, Hamilton, Yoshida. And for awhile the rotation of Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Bello--all of whom were here before Breslow--was also doing pretty good.

 

To Breslow's credit, he insisted on a new pitching coach, and Bailey has been pretty good. Also in his defense is that the owner has been reluctant to support significant investments in pitching, largely because he was snake bit by the huge David Price and Chris Sale contracts.

 

Cora is a big reason why the Sox have a winning record this year. He managed the best Sox team, 2018, in Sox history. And 3 years later with Betts, Benintendi, JBJ, Price, Kimbel, et al, gone--and Sale on the IL--Cora managed that team to the ALCS. In comparison, the 2016 and 2017 Sox teams, with a lot more talent, won the AL East both seasons but were killed in the ALDS, 3 games to none, both times. That was with Farrell as manager.

 

Any examples of what Cora has done as the big reason they have a winning record this year?

 

And pointing to 2018 and 2021 have nothing to do with this season.......

[notin]

OTOH, if you flip the scenario to a defensive one, there are definitely situations in which you would rather walk the other team's best hitter than pitch to him.

 

The situational factor is pretty key here I think.

 

Pitching around hitters is situational. Calling for lineup protection is not.

 

Unless you mean some hitters need it and some don’t. I can agree to that. It’s not a universal requirement however, and it’s easy to find hitters posting MVP numbers without it. I’ll start that bidding with Jose Ramirez, who does so every year. (And Josh Naylor and his Connor Wong-esque .781 OPS are absolutely not “lineup protection” in the vein of Manny-Ortiz.)

[Bellhorn04]

Pitching around hitters is situational. Calling for lineup protection is not.

 

OK, but it's less of an obvious move to pitch around a hitter in those situations when there's a dangerous guy behind him.

 

Honestly I think that's the only real point that everyone should agree on.

[notin]

OK, but it's less of an obvious move to pitch around a hitter in those situations when there's a dangerous guy behind him.

 

Honestly I think that's the only real point that everyone should agree on.

 

I bet you can find some sabermetrician who disagrees. After, if you’ve found a good hitter’s weakness, aren’t you going to exploit it regardless of who’s up next?