Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Even that $8mill/WAR is an average - an often used an often misleading stat.  It can be skewed heavily by a small number of successes.  For example, it is completely true that the average net worth of me, you, and Bill Gates is over $50 billion each.  Does it accurately reflect your savings account?

To me this is a nonsensical argument.  By this reasoning big busts "skew" the average too, and there are plenty of those.

If we can't even use averages, what the heck would you use instead?

[notin]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

To me this is a nonsensical argument.  By this reasoning big busts "skew" the average too, and there are plenty of those.

If we can't even use averages, what the heck would you use instead?

That’s absolutely not a nonsensical argument; it’s an inherent problem with the statistic in general. Anyone who has ever done any data analysis has been told repeatedly to not rely on average as a statistic.  I used to work with a quality manager who would say (and he probably shouldn’t have) “the average person has one ball and one tit, but you don’t see many of them walking around.”

There are numerous other options, but they’re not as easy…

[Bellhorn04]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s absolutely not a nonsensical argument; it’s an inherent problem with the statistic in general. Anyone who has ever done any data analysis has been told repeatedly to not rely on average as a statistic.  I used to work with a quality manager who would say (and he probably shouldn’t have) “the average person has one ball and one tit, but you don’t see many of them walking around.”

There are numerous other options, but they’re not as easy…

And which option do you consider better, and have you tried applying it to free agent contracts and production?  Bring it on!

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

I used to work with a quality manager who would say (and he probably shouldn’t have) “the average person has one ball and one tit, but you don’t see many of them walking around.”

Big problem with that joke.  The average person actually has two of the latter, and in numerous cases the male's are larger-though not on AVERAGE, of course. 🙃

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Somehow this whole thread today evolved into the "losses" to NY and Boston.

My post was about what they added... this offseason. 

The Yankees added Devin Williams, who was hurt part of last season but is one of the best closers in baseball. He was an All-Star the two previous years, received MVP votes, and in '24 had a sub-1.00 WHIP and WAR of 1.4. The Red Sox added Aroldis Chapman, who hasn't been an All-Star in half a decade, and when he was he gave up postseason-losing walk-off home runs. In '24 he had a 1.346 WHIP and a WAR of 0.4. Like I said when comparing the two, not. even. close.

As for Soto, I stick by my claim for the past year that he was the #1 difference-maker in winning the Yankees the pennant (and for Judge having his best season). But at least the Yanks tried to replace the production by adding two MVPs in Bellinger and Goldschmidt.

The Red Sox lost their home run leader and added nothing in their batting order but more lies to their fans.

Nobody here or anywhere is saying Boston should spend for the sake of spending. But everybody agrees the Sox should spend on talent to add better players to their team -- because they can afford it, and to justify what they charge to watch them.

 

It seems logical to weigh what was added vs what was subtracted. To me, the NYY lost more than they added. We added more than we lost.

The spending is another issue, and yes, we all seem in agreement on that. We could and should spend more.

I know every team has players returning from injury, but I view players who never played for the Sox in 2024 as "additions," so I count Hendriks and Giolito as additions.

The pen additions vs subtractions favors the Yanks (Holmes, Kahlne & Trivino for D Williams) vs BOS (Jansen, Martin, Anderson and others for Hendriks, Chapman & Wilson,) but I don't see it as a massive differential.

The Yanks added Fried and lost Cortes. We added Crochet, Buehler, Giolito and Sandoval and lost Pivetta)

We lost O'Neill and gained nothing on O.

The Yanks lost more than they gained, here. This has to be a given.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Somehow this whole thread today evolved into the "losses" to NY and Boston.

My post was about what they added... this offseason. 

You did not mention Buehler or Sandoval in your "additions."

You also did not count Gio and Hendriks, which is somewhat understandable, since theyw ere added, last winter.

[notin]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And which option do you consider better, and have you tried applying it to free agent contracts and production?  Bring it on!

 

 

Ive said it before - sign your own players before free agency and before arbitration when possible.

If you believe every $8,000,000 is worth one win, will Juan Soto be worth 95 WAR in the next 15 years?  It only averages out to a very beatable 6.3 WAR per year.  Of course he will spend one third of that contract between 35 and 40 years old.  And only 22 players in MLB history have been worth 95 WAR, yet at that rate, Soto should have that much LEFT.

It would also give Soto 131 WAR for his career, enough for 6th all time.  Ahead of Ted Williams and Tris Speaker and just behind Hank Aaron.

 

And I know I’m talking about just one player, but Soto also has to be one of the surest things in free agency since ARod…

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

Ive said it before - sign your own players before free agency and before arbitration when possible.

Where are our extensions?

We seem to be going cheap, there too.

[moonslav59]

Flaherty to DET for $35M/2.

Do they have enough budget space for Bregman?

I'm guessing Bregman to TOR or HOU. (BOS might have moved from 4th to 3rd most likely, but they might have to add a year to get him back w Cora.)

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Where are our extensions?

We seem to be going cheap, there too.

So far, Bello and Rafaela…

[moonslav59]

On MLBTR chat, someone was shot down for suggesting Yoshida and Story for Luis Castillo, but it got me thinking, what about Story for Castillo and Giolito, Cespedes and Penrod for Arenado and Helsley (plus some cash?)

That would force a Mayer call-up or trying Campbell at SS. (I doubt we go with Rafaela/Romy.)

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

So far, Bello and Rafaela…

Yes. I was thinking that was 2 years ago, but it was last spring. 

Damn, time flies!

One was March 7 (Bello) and the other APR 10 (Rafaela.)

I hope we extend Crochet, Campbell and Anthony.

Abreu might be worth a shot.

How about Houck or Crawford?

Slaten?

[harmony]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

On MLBTR chat, someone was shot down for suggesting Yoshida and Story for Luis Castillo, but it got me thinking, what about Story for Castillo and Giolito, Cespedes and Penrod for Arenado and Helsley (plus some cash?)

That would force a Mayer call-up or trying Campbell at SS. (I doubt we go with Rafaela/Romy.)

???

Baseball Trade Values assigns Luis Castillo a surplus value of $7 million and Trevor Story a negative value of $66.3 million.

On a side note, is Marcelo Mayer anywhere near MLB-ready?

Last fall this forum hosted a brief debate on whether Seattle would be interested in Mayer when the Mariners already have top middle infield prospects. The Athletic's Keith Law recently ranked two Seattle shortstop prospects -- Colt Emerson at No. 5 and Felnin Celesten at No. 24 -- ahead of Mayer, who landed at No, 28 overall.

Emerson and Celesten, who are 19 years old, are a few years off but a third Seattle shortstop prospect, 21-year-old Cole Young at No, 45, is considered an outside candidate to make his MLB debut this year.

Neither Mayer nor Young, who is seven months younger than Mayer, have played an inning above Double A. Compare their career lines at the Double A level:

MM 120 G, 524 PA, .264/.328/.435/.763, 80 R, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 17 SB

CY 124 G, 552 PA, .271/.369/.390/.759, 67 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 23 SB

Let's hope both Mayer and Young have productive MLB careers.

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I was thinking that was 2 years ago, but it was last spring. 

Damn, time flies!

One was March 7 (Bello) and the other APR 10 (Rafaela.)

I hope we extend Crochet, Campbell and Anthony.

Abreu might be worth a shot.

How about Houck or Crawford?

Slaten?

Crawford is controlled through '28, why extend him? 

You could make a case to extend Houck, but he's already in his 29 season and controlled for 3 years. 

No chance to they extend Slaten they way they did with Whitlock. Relief arms are too fungible and Slaten only has a partial year of success at the moment. Imagine if they extended Josh Taylor...

 

[mvp 78]

We made it...

 

[Bellhorn04]

12 hours ago, notin said:

Ive said it before - sign your own players before free agency and before arbitration when possible.

If you believe every $8,000,000 is worth one win, will Juan Soto be worth 95 WAR in the next 15 years?  It only averages out to a very beatable 6.3 WAR per year.  Of course he will spend one third of that contract between 35 and 40 years old.  And only 22 players in MLB history have been worth 95 WAR, yet at that rate, Soto should have that much LEFT.

It would also give Soto 131 WAR for his career, enough for 6th all time.  Ahead of Ted Williams and Tris Speaker and just behind Hank Aaron.

 

And I know I’m talking about just one player, but Soto also has to be one of the surest things in free agency since ARod…

I believe that sometimes it really is worth "overpaying".  Soto's contract is 15 years. The $8,000,000 figure will likely go up over that time.  That will impact the calculations.

[Bellhorn04]

When Theo went to the Cubs, free agents were a big part of building that 2016 championship team.  Theo's comments about free agency were always enlightening.  He pretty much characterized it as a necessary evil type thing and I think he said if you hit on more than 50% you're doing very well.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, harmony said:

???

Baseball Trade Values assigns Luis Castillo a surplus value of $7 million and Trevor Story a negative value of $66.3 million.

On a side note, is Marcelo Mayer anywhere near MLB-ready?

Last fall this forum hosted a brief debate on whether Seattle would be interested in Mayer when the Mariners already have top middle infield prospects. The Athletic's Keith Law recently ranked two Seattle shortstop prospects -- Colt Emerson at No. 5 and Felnin Celesten at No. 24 -- ahead of Mayer, who landed at No, 28 overall.

Emerson and Celesten, who are 19 years old, are a few years off but a third Seattle shortstop prospect, 21-year-old Cole Young at No, 45, is considered an outside candidate to make his MLB debut this year.

Neither Mayer nor Young, who is seven months younger than Mayer, have played an inning above Double A. Compare their career lines at the Double A level:

MM 120 G, 524 PA, .264/.328/.435/.763, 80 R, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 17 SB

CY 124 G, 552 PA, .271/.369/.390/.759, 67 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 23 SB

Let's hope both Mayer and Young have productive MLB careers.

 

I meant to add more to the Castillo trade and or pay down some of Story's contract. My bad.

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Crawford is controlled through '28, why extend him? 

You could make a case to extend Houck, but he's already in his 29 season and controlled for 3 years. 

No chance to they extend Slaten they way they did with Whitlock. Relief arms are too fungible and Slaten only has a partial year of success at the moment. Imagine if they extended Josh Taylor...

 

Well, Anthony and Campbell are controlled beyond 2028, but they are younger. I get it.

I can see the no on Crawford and Slaten, unless they take a good deal.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I believe that sometimes it really is worth "overpaying".  Soto's contract is 15 years. The $8,000,000 figure will likely go up over that time.  That will impact the calculations.

Yeah, I'm surprised it hasn't gone up before. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Well, Anthony and Campbell are controlled beyond 2028, but they are younger. I get it.

I can see the no on Crawford and Slaten, unless they take a good deal.

Anthony and Campbell extensions make sense. However, if they want PPI they can't give them an extension before they reach MLB. The extension has to happen after their first MLB game. If they don't care about the PPI, they can just extend them now. I'm not sure what there appetite is for gaming the system in that manner. 

I think they need to get the Crochet extension done first no matter what.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony and Campbell extensions make sense. However, if they want PPI they can't give them an extension before they reach MLB. The extension has to happen after their first MLB game. If they don't care about the PPI, they can just extend them now. I'm not sure what there appetite is for gaming the system in that manner. 

I think they need to get the Crochet extension done first no matter what.

Agreed, and maybe all of them will be announced after opening day or the first game played by rookies.

Since we are not really close to the tax line, maybe the Crochet extension can and should be made to start in 2025, if it would bring down the overall AAV for future tight budgets. (Yeah, right.)

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I was thinking that was 2 years ago, but it was last spring. 

Damn, time flies!

One was March 7 (Bello) and the other APR 10 (Rafaela.)

I hope we extend Crochet, Campbell and Anthony.

Abreu might be worth a shot.

How about Houck or Crawford?

Slaten?

I was hoping for Crawford and Houck extensions last year.  But worth noting, one year ago we hadn’t extended anyone.  
 

Crochet will be top priority, but the Sox do have to meet his numbers.  After him, I suspect Anthony and/or Campbell…

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I was hoping for Crawford and Houck extensions last year.  But worth noting, one year ago we hadn’t extended anyone.  
 

Crochet will be top priority, but the Sox do have to meet his numbers.  After him, I suspect Anthony and/or Campbell…

Crochet is the top priority, for obvious reasons, but we can do three things at once, and maybe Anthony or Campbell say yes, first.

[mvp 78]

He's going to get LESS than Flaherty? YUCK!

2. Will Pivetta’s market begin to move?

Right-hander Nick Pivetta declined a qualifying offer from the Red Sox at the outset of the offseason, but since then there’s been little to say about his market. The Blue Jays were connected to him earlier this offseason, and there’s been some reporting that’s suggested the Padres could have interest if they end up trading Dylan Cease and creating additional budget space. The soon-to-be 32-year-old has hardly been a part of the offseason rumor mill despite being one of the best pitchers remaining on the market since the rush of starting pitching signings during the Winter Meetings. Now that Flaherty has signed and Pivetta is the highest-ranked free agent starter still available on MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, could his market begin to show signs of life?

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's going to get LESS than Flaherty? YUCK!

2. Will Pivetta’s market begin to move?

Right-hander Nick Pivetta declined a qualifying offer from the Red Sox at the outset of the offseason, but since then there’s been little to say about his market. The Blue Jays were connected to him earlier this offseason, and there’s been some reporting that’s suggested the Padres could have interest if they end up trading Dylan Cease and creating additional budget space. The soon-to-be 32-year-old has hardly been a part of the offseason rumor mill despite being one of the best pitchers remaining on the market since the rush of starting pitching signings during the Winter Meetings. Now that Flaherty has signed and Pivetta is the highest-ranked free agent starter still available on MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, could his market begin to show signs of life?

He might get 3-4 years, but at a less AAV.

Flaherty got $35M/2 ($17.5M AAV)

Maybe Pivetta gets $47-49M/3 or $58-60M/4.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports that the SDP might look into Pivetta, if they trade Cease.

DET is still in on Bregman, despite the Flaherty signing.

No rumors on Sox "interest" on anybody.

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

MLBTR reports that the SDP might look into Pivetta, if they trade Cease.

DET is still in on Bregman, despite the Flaherty signing.

No rumors on Sox "interest" on anybody.

Sox interest in EVERYTHING is simply assumed now. 😄 

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

I was hoping for Crawford and Houck extensions last year.  But worth noting, one year ago we hadn’t extended anyone.

Crawford actually seems like the textbook guy to NOT extend...

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sox interest in EVERYTHING is simply assumed now. 😄 

Friendship ended with interest. Now truck day is my best friend.