Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Theres also a durability component. I have no problem with Raffi DH'ing. We need the bat.

Raffy swinging the bat as hard as he does is more likely getting hurt that way then playing in the field.

[dgalehouse]

Regardless of what happens with Bregman, I think Breslow has done a better job than he is being given credit for. The addition of Crochet, Buehler and Chapman , plus the returns of Giolito, Hendriks, Fulmer and possibly Sandoval should shore up the pitching staff. I also expect good things from Guerrero.  The lineup is good, if a little left-hand heavy. And I think Casas will become at least a halfway decent defender. And he was able to retain the prospect trio of Anthony, Mayer and Campbell.  Of course , the proof will have to come from winning ballgames.

[Hugh2]

15 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Right , and you can make that projection right now, after another signing is made, and at any point during the season, and the projected fWAR will likely vary based on when you are projecting it.

Right, and that projection is based off of how those 162 games play out. So arguing about how those 162 games might actually play out is 100% the argument. 

[Hugh2]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Was Raffy paid $300M+ to be a 1B let alone a DH? What more work to you think Raffy would be doing to be an elite hitter if he was just the DH that he’s not doing now? This stuff is way over thought IMO.

At the end of the day what's done is done.  If you could remove Raffy from 3B and replace him with a gold glove caliber defender, would you not? because the Sox are allegedly front runners to sign such player. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

At the end of the day what's done is done.  If you could remove Raffy from 3B and replace him with a gold glove caliber defender, would you not? because the Sox are allegedly front runners to sign such player. 

Isn't the plan to put Bregman at 2b? 

[mvp 78]

This is a re-signing as Kolozsvary spent the season in WOO last year. 

[mvp 78]

 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Isn't the plan to put Bregman at 2b? 

yes

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

yes

Horrible. 

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Horrible. 

agreed.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Theres also a durability component. I have no problem with Raffi DH'ing. We need the bat.

Casas seems a bit fragile, so maybe a 1B-DH share between Casas and Devers would help both stay healthier, fresher and play 160-162 games.

We need both bats, everyday. (Both have decent splits.)

[Larry Cook]

A month until training camp! 
a right handed bat and a closer are still needed !!!

All reports point to St. Louis! 
Bres-slow and hang’em Chaim in a staring contest over St. Louis refusal to take yoshida!!!!

who blinks first?????

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

A month until training camp! 
a right handed bat and a closer are still needed !!!

All reports point to St. Louis! 
Bres-slow and hang’em Chaim in a staring contest over St. Louis refusal to take yoshida!!!!

who blinks first?????

I think STL will want too much for 1 year of Helsley, and why should we overpay for 1 year?

If he's an add-on to lower the money included on Arenado, okay, but what are you thinking? Romero and Fitts for Helsley & Arenado & $10M x 2 yrs and $5M year 3?

I might do Yoshida + $5M x 3 years, Arias and Fitts for Helsley & Arenado

[Hugh2]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think STL will want too much for 1 year of Helsley, and why should we overpay for 1 year?

If he's an add-on to lower the money included on Arenado, okay, but what are you thinking? Romero and Fitts for Helsley & Arenado & $10M x 2 yrs and $5M year 3?

I might do Yoshida + $5M x 3 years, Arias and Fitts for Helsley & Arenado

The problem is their reasoning for trading Arenado is shedding payroll.  Taking back Yoshida pretty much nullifies this.

[moonslav59]

Apparently, HOU's offer to Bregman is still "on the table."

TOR is getting close to signing Alonso, so I doubt Breg goes there.

It will probably be Detroit, with maybe BOS or HOU as distant second runners.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The problem is their reasoning for trading Arenado is shedding payroll.  Taking back Yoshida pretty much nullifies this.

The Cardinals were willing to send $15-20 million to the Astros as part of the deal to help pay down Arenado’s salary, sources said. The eight-time All-Star is set to earn $74 million over the next three years, though the Rockies are on the hook for $10 million as part of their 2021 trade with the Cardinals, while $12 million of the deal is deferred, bringing the present-day value of what he is owed to roughly $60 million. The money the Cardinals were willing to include would have brought the Astros’ commitment down to roughly $40-45 million over three years.

So, if we pay $15 the $54M owed Yoshida, STL pays Yoshida $39M, instead of Arenado $60M. That certainly does not save them $40-45M, but $21M is a lot. Essentially, we'd be paying Arenado $75M/3, but after subtracting Yoshida's deal we would really be paying Arenado 

 

We'd be paying Arenado $60M/3, but would save $39M/3 of Yoshida. That comes to $7M a year for Arenado over Yoshida.

I can see STL saying no, and giving Helsely with Arenado makes it harder to swallow, but who knows how they value the other players I included.

I'm not sure JH would do this, and I'm not sure I would either. Arenado is due to crater. Only a Helsley extension would make the deal interesting.

I've come to the conclusion that there is no way to dump Yoshida, unless we just pay $10-14M a year out of the $18M/yr owed.

 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

A month until training camp! 
a right handed bat and a closer are still needed !!!

All reports point to St. Louis! 
Bres-slow and hang’em Chaim in a staring contest over St. Louis refusal to take yoshida!!!!

who blinks first?????

They aren't going to take Yoshida. The point in the Cards moving Arenado was a salary dump. It makes no sense for them to take on another contract. 

I think the Sox grab a low contract guy like Grichuk and move on with their lives. 

[Hugh2]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Cardinals were willing to send $15-20 million to the Astros as part of the deal to help pay down Arenado’s salary, sources said. The eight-time All-Star is set to earn $74 million over the next three years, though the Rockies are on the hook for $10 million as part of their 2021 trade with the Cardinals, while $12 million of the deal is deferred, bringing the present-day value of what he is owed to roughly $60 million. The money the Cardinals were willing to include would have brought the Astros’ commitment down to roughly $40-45 million over three years.

So, if we pay $15 the $54M owed Yoshida, STL pays Yoshida $39M, instead of Arenado $60M. That certainly does not save them $40-45M, but $21M is a lot. Essentially, we'd be paying Arenado $75M/3, but after subtracting Yoshida's deal we would really be paying Arenado 

 

We'd be paying Arenado $60M/3, but would save $39M/3 of Yoshida. That comes to $7M a year for Arenado over Yoshida.

I can see STL saying no, and giving Helsely with Arenado makes it harder to swallow, but who knows how they value the other players I included.

I'm not sure JH would do this, and I'm not sure I would either. Arenado is due to crater. Only a Helsley extension would make the deal interesting.

I've come to the conclusion that there is no way to dump Yoshida, unless we just pay $10-14M a year out of the $18M/yr owed.

 

Yes, they're willing to pay down his contract, because they're going to maximize salary relief, making a trade for Yoshida highly unlikely. 

Two teams looking for a salary dump is not a great fit.  

[Bellhorn04]

17 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Regardless of what happens with Bregman, I think Breslow has done a better job than he is being given credit for. The addition of Crochet, Buehler and Chapman , plus the returns of Giolito, Hendriks, Fulmer and possibly Sandoval should shore up the pitching staff. I also expect good things from Guerrero.  The lineup is good, if a little left-hand heavy. And I think Casas will become at least a halfway decent defender. And he was able to retain the prospect trio of Anthony, Mayer and Campbell.  Of course , the proof will have to come from winning ballgames.

If they don't do anything further, the Sox  2025 offense is going to need Anthony and/or Campbell to instantly produce, or it could really stink.  Especially if, God forbid, Devers's shoulder issues linger.

Jansen for Chapman seems like a lateral move at best.  They could easily have done more to bolster the late inning bullpen.  

Credit to Breslow for some bold starting pitching moves, but it still feels like there's something deeply wrong with this organization,  And it seems pretty clear the something wrong is the attention they pay to the payroll budget and the bottom line.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes, they're willing to pay down his contract, because they're going to maximize salary relief, making a trade for Yoshida highly unlikely. 

Two teams looking for a salary dump is not a great fit.  

They either need to eat Masa's salary and trade him, or just keep him around and hope for the best. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

They either need to eat Masa's salary and trade him, or just keep him around and hope for the best. 

Might as well hope for the best.  It fits perfectly with this team's general approach! 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If they don't do anything further, the Sox  2025 offense is going to need Anthony and/or Campbell to instantly produce, or it could really stink.  Especially if, God forbid, Devers's shoulder issues linger.

Jansen for Chapman seems like a lateral move at best.  They could easily have done more to bolster the late inning bullpen.  

Credit to Breslow for some bold starting pitching moves, but it still feels like there's something deeply wrong with this organization,  And it seems pretty clear the something wrong is the attention they pay to the payroll budget and the bottom line.

Some people on here are very obsessed with the projections so let's look at the Sox RP acquisitions:

Chapman 0.8 fWAR 10.75M (tied for second highest projected fWAR on a reasonable contract)

Wilson 0.5 fWAR 2.25M (same projection as Minter, but for 25% the price)

They didn't want to go multi-year. I thought Kittredge a 1/10 was up their alley. Too bad Martin didn't want to stick around for one more year. He would have been the ideal addition to shore up the 7th/8th inning. 

 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Might as well hope for the best.  It fits perfectly with this team's general approach! 

Honestly, it's the best use of the money too rather than eating a salary and sending him away. He's still a guy who should reliably give you 110 OPS+ and can get hot for a month or two. I think there's a way to use him that makes sense. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Some people on here are very obsessed with the projections so let's look at the Sox RP acquisitions:

Chapman 0.8 fWAR 10.75M (tied for second highest projected fWAR on a reasonable contract)

Wilson 0.5 fWAR 2.25M (same projection as Minter, but for 25% the price)

They didn't want to go multi-year. I thought Kittredge a 1/10 was up their alley. Too bad Martin didn't want to stick around for one more year. He would have been the ideal addition to shore up the 7th/8th inning. 

 

I’m not obsessed with projections at all, and as a matter of fact I think they are useless unless they can predict health wise, which they can’t. What were the projections for Story, Casas, and Whit last year? Even Raffy for that matter? The backend of the BP worries me the most. To many coming off injuries, and be counted on as their former selves. If Chapman is the closer that’s another concern. I believe you said earlier 7th inning is ok, but then it goes down hill in 8-9 innings.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’m not obsessed with projections at all, and as a matter of fact I think they are useless unless they can predict health wise, which they can’t. What were the projections for Story, Casas, and Whit last year? Even Raffy for that matter? The backend of the BP worries me the most. To many coming off injuries, and be counted on as their former selves. If Chapman is the closer that’s another concern. I believe you said earlier 7th inning is ok, but then it goes down hill in 8-9 innings.

Then the above post wasn't for you.

I didn't say the 7th inning was ok, I said "the 7th for Chapman was great, the 8th was ok and the 9th was change the channel." 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Then the above post wasn't for you.

I didn't say the 7th inning was ok, I said "the 7th for Chapman was great, the 8th was ok and the 9th was change the channel." 

I read all post to some degree, and that why I gave an opinion on projections. Projections are useless IMO, and as you said some are Very Obsessed with them. Different opinions, and different strokes for different folks. I’ll also offer IMO I don’t think Chapman will be great wherever he pitches. Maybe OK, but not great.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I read all post to some degree, and that why I gave an opinion on projections. Projections are useless IMO, and as you said some are Very Obsessed with them. Different opinions, and different strokes for different folks. I’ll also offer IMO I don’t think Chapman will be great wherever he pitches. Maybe OK, but not great.

We say projections are useless, but the pre-season team projections for the Red Sox as a .500ish team the last 3 years turned out to be dead on.  Projections for individual players are really difficult, but over a team the variances tend to even out a lot. 

Maybe it's just that the Sox have become a very predictably mediocre team.

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes, they're willing to pay down his contract, because they're going to maximize salary relief, making a trade for Yoshida highly unlikely. 

Two teams looking for a salary dump is not a great fit.  

They were looking to save about $40-45M with the Astros trade, so if any deal comes close to that, they might listen. Taking on a $54M Yoshida deal would mean we'd have to pay off his whole deal and pay $40M for Arenado (STL pays $20M). That makes zero sense for the Sox. 

However, if the bottom line is what this is mostly about for STL, they could add Contreras, who is owed exactly what Yoshida is owed, and we could  accept Arenado's full deal, saving STL $20M more, or accept the $20M and give them less young talent, in return for Contreras.

Yoshida, Fitts and Cespedes for Contreras and Arenado & $15M cash. (STL saves $45M and we pay enough to stay under the tax line)

of

Yoshida and Cespedes for Contreras and Arenado w no cash. (STL saves $60M) We pay $18 to Contreras, not Yoshida and Arenado's full boat- what COL pays.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We say projections are useless, but the pre-season team projections for the Red Sox as a .500ish team the last 3 years turned out to be dead on.  Projections for individual players are really difficult, but over a team the variances tend to even out a lot. 

Maybe it's just that the Sox have become a very predictably mediocre team.

It’s hard to predict with all the injuries of the past few years. What would the team been like last year if Story, Casas, and Whit would have been healthy last year? Raffy’s shoulder was bothering him on the first road trip last year.

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Some people on here are very obsessed with the projections so let's look at the Sox RP acquisitions:

Chapman 0.8 fWAR 10.75M (tied for second highest projected fWAR on a reasonable contract)

Wilson 0.5 fWAR 2.25M (same projection as Minter, but for 25% the price)

They didn't want to go multi-year. I thought Kittredge a 1/10 was up their alley. Too bad Martin didn't want to stick around for one more year. He would have been the ideal addition to shore up the 7th/8th inning. 

 

It seems like the pen is the best way to get talent without giving up 5-8 year deals and $100M plus.

I thought the Jansen and Martin signings signalled the Sox recognized that as a way to improve the team on the cheap and without long commitments. (We ended up paying Jansen and Martin more AAV than Scott got, but they were just two 2 year commitments and not one 4-5 year commitment.)