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Posted

Starting this thread earlier, this year, but this should not be taken as a sign of giving up on 2024. It is not.

 

Again, there are a lot of unknowns going into 2025, including the budget and how and when we can or will improve our pitching staff. I'm not sure we have ever been so sure about the everyday player alignment going into 2025, but a few choices need to be made there:

Do we swap a LHB for a RHB?

Do we count on using one or two of the big 3 prospects, early in the season, or do we wait it out and play the years of control game with 2-3 of them? Other than that, I think we look pretty set on the everyday 13:

 

C: Wong & ____ (Teel AAA or someone like Gasper or Heineman)

1B: Casas (Romy)

2B: Story (DHam-Romy)

SS: Mayer (or Story)

3B: Devers

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu-Refsnyder platoon (Anthony in AAA)

DH: Yoshida

 

We all know the area that needs serious attention. We simply cannot go into 2025, expecting success without some major additions, and I'm not talking 1-2. We need to add 1-2 above and beyond replacing Jansen, Martin & Pivetta. That looks like 5 solid additions needed, minimum. This can be done via free agency or by trading some bottle-necked prospects or younger players for quality pitching. This is by no means a sure bet to happen. JH has been reluctant to spend on the rotation or to trade any top prospects away. The last highest ranked prospects traded were Beeks in '18 for Eovaldi, Aldo Ramirez in '21 for Schwarber and Matthew Lugo and Nick Yorke, this summer. That is not a solid track record of trading prospects for top quality players. I'm not making predictions. There will plenty of those made by many of us, in the coming months.

 

Here's a quick look at the budget situation (AAV dollars):

 

FAs: Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, O'Neill, Paxton, DJansen, L Garcia, L Sims

29.1 Devers

23.3 Story

18.0 Yoshida

9.2 Bello

6.3 Rafaela

5.0 Hendriks (option)

4.7 Whitlock

2.0 Refsnyder

Arbs (Est.):

7.4 Duran (1 of 4)

7.0 Houck (1 of 3)

3.0 Crawford (1 of 4)

1.0 Heineman (1 of 3, may be non tendered)

 

This comes to about $116M. Add the pre-arb contracts, 0-3 bonus pool (1.7) and player benefits (17.5) and it comes to about $150-155M. The CBT first line is $241M, so to spend up to that line might mean we have about $80-90M for the winter spending budget. (That is not to say JH will agree to that much spending.)

 

I'll go over the 40 man roster, next, but here are the 5-6 essential needs for 2025:

SP1-2

SP2-3

SP5-6

Closer

Set Up

RP or RHB

 

The Projected 40 Man Roster before any trades or signings:

 

Red= Bubble (Non tender, Rule 5 Bubble, DFA or trade?)

Blue= Likely Rule 5 Protected

 

SP Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Criswell, Priester, Perales, Fitts, Dobbins, Monegro Mata, Murphy, Wikelman, Gambrell

RP Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Kelly, Bernardino, Weissert, I Campbell, Booser, Fulmer, GuerreroHorn, Shugart

C Wong, Heineman or Gasper

1B Casas Dalbec

2B Grissom, DHam

SS Story, Romy

3B Devers

LF Duran E Valdez, Castro

CF Rafaela Jh Garica

RF Abreu, Refsnyder

DH Yoshida

 

There may not be a big roster crunch, unless we start adding more than 5-6 FAs or trade additions for no 40 man roster players.

 

Not needed to protect for Rule 5, but roster depth, if needed:

SP: Penrod, Drohan, Sandlin, Early

RP: Mills, Cellucci, Liu, Hoppe, Troye

C: Teel

1B: Jordan/Meidroth

2B: Mayer/Campbell

SS: Mayer, Romero

3B: Meidroth

LF: Sogard

CF: Campbell

RF: Anthony

DH: Hickey/Gasper

 

This could be an eventful winter or more of the same ole sham. Maybe, somewhere in between. I'm not optimistic, but I have not lost hope.

 

 

Posted

Not a prediction, but I think we could do something like this:

 

Trade:

Anthony, Campbell & Fitts for Logan Gilbert (3 arbs) or George Kirby (4 arbs)

 

Sign:

Eovaldi ($15M x 2)

Jansen ($15M x 1)

Sewald ($7.5M x 2)

Martin ($5.5M x 1)

 

SP: Gilbert, Houck, Nate, Gio, Bello, Crawford, Criswell, Priester, Dobbins, Murphy

RP: Jansen, Sewald, Hendriks, Slaten, Martin, Whitlock, Wink, Kelly, Bernardino, Fulmer, Weissert, I Campbell, Guerrero

C: Wong, Gasper (Teel and Jo Garcia not on 40)

1B: Casas (Gasper) (Jordan not on 40)

2B: Story, DHam-Grissom (platoon)

SS: Mayer (Story) Romy (Romero not on 40)

3B: Devers (Meidroth not on 40)

LF: Duran, E Valdez/Sogard (Castro not on 40)

CF: Rafaela (Duran) (Jh. Garcia not on 40)

RF: Abreu-Refsnyder (platoon)

DH: Yoshida (Hickey not on 40)

 

Is this enough?

 

Is this even possible?

Posted
Not a prediction, but I think we could do something like this:

 

Trade:

Anthony, Campbell & Fitts for Logan Gilbert (3 arbs) or George Kirby (4 arbs)

 

Sign:

Eovaldi ($15M x 2)

Jansen ($15M x 1)

Sewald ($7.5M x 2)

Martin ($5.5M x 1)

 

SP: Gilbert, Houck, Nate, Gio, Bello, Crawford, Criswell, Priester, Dobbins, Murphy

RP: Jansen, Sewald, Hendriks, Slaten, Martin, Whitlock, Wink, Kelly, Bernardino, Fulmer, Weissert, I Campbell, Guerrero

C: Wong, Gasper (Teel and Jo Garcia not on 40)

1B: Casas (Gasper) (Jordan not on 40)

2B: Story, DHam-Grissom (platoon)

SS: Mayer (Story) Romy (Romero not on 40)

3B: Devers (Meidroth not on 40)

LF: Duran, E Valdez/Sogard (Castro not on 40)

CF: Rafaela (Duran) (Jh. Garcia not on 40)

RF: Abreu-Refsnyder (platoon)

DH: Yoshida (Hickey not on 40)

 

Is this enough?

 

Is this even possible?

 

That package gets you one of those guys, not 2.

 

I also don't think Jansen will be resigned.

 

I know BTV isn't everything, but it has a total value of 175 going to Boston vs. 72 to Seattle. That's very lopsided.

 

EDIT: just re-read your post and you said OR!!!!!! Kirby.

 

......my bad.

Posted
That package gets you one of those guys, not 2.

 

I also don't think Jansen will be resigned.

 

I know BTV isn't everything, but it has a total value of 175 going to Boston vs. 72 to Seattle. That's very lopsided.

 

EDIT: just re-read your post and you said OR!!!!!! Kirby.

 

......my bad.

 

Would BTV accept one of Kirby or Gilbert?

 

We could add EValdez and Wikelman.

 

Community Moderator
Posted
Would BTV accept one of Kirby or Gilbert?

 

We could add EValdez and Wikelman.

 

 

LOL, adding in trash doesn't help a trade typically.

Posted
LOL, adding in trash doesn't help a trade typically.

 

… unless Seattle hires Oscar the Grouch to be their new CBO…

Posted
LOL, adding in trash doesn't help a trade typically.

 

Yes, and SEA has no room on their 40 for those two. We'd likely have to add a non 40 guy like Jo Garcia or Cespedes.

Posted

I know a Seattle needs some hitting, but at the expense of their rotation? Not sure if any of Kirby, Gilbert, Woo, or Miller are available.

 

I will say, if any are, the bidding does probably start with Anthony…

Community Moderator
Posted
… unless Seattle hires Oscar the Grouch to be their new CBO…

 

Where has harmony been?

 

And does he still believe that Kelenic is as good as Duran?

Community Moderator
Posted

Anyway, moon, I will continue to browse your well thought out thread, but it's way too early for me to think about the offseason.

 

Would trading Campbell this offseason be selling high? He's a player without a fulltime position. Scouts are finally starting to come around on him though. He's a RHB in a system of LHB.

 

Trading Sale was a pretty bold move that didn't work out. Aside from that, Breslow didn't really make any waves last offseason. Dealing malcontent Verdugo made too much sense. With this FO and the financial constraints since letting Mookie go, it's hard to really forecast what the Sox will do.

Posted
I know a Seattle needs some hitting, but at the expense of their rotation? Not sure if any of Kirby, Gilbert, Woo, or Miller are available.

 

I will say, if any are, the bidding does probably start with Anthony…

 

Word was they were open for offers, last winter. I wonder if a guy like Castillo would be "more" available. (I'm not sure JH accepts his contract, but the return would be less.)

 

What top pitchers might be "on the block?"

 

Miami's don't look so good, anymore.

 

Posted
Anyway, moon, I will continue to browse your well thought out thread, but it's way too early for me to think about the offseason.

 

Would trading Campbell this offseason be selling high? He's a player without a fulltime position. Scouts are finally starting to come around on him though. He's a RHB in a system of LHB.

 

Trading Sale was a pretty bold move that didn't work out. Aside from that, Breslow didn't really make any waves last offseason. Dealing malcontent Verdugo made too much sense. With this FO and the financial constraints since letting Mookie go, it's hard to really forecast what the Sox will do.

 

I'm super high on Campbell, and his RHB is needed, but you have to give to get, and I want to hold onto mayer and Teel. I think having Jh Garcia lessens the blow of losing Campbell. I think Cespedes and Arias are too far away to have great trade value. Bleis maye, as well, and I doubt SEA wants 2 OF'ers for a TOTR SP.

Posted
Not a prediction, but I think we could do something like this:

 

Trade:

Anthony, Campbell & Fitts for Logan Gilbert (3 arbs) or George Kirby (4 arbs)

 

Sign:

Eovaldi ($15M x 2)

Jansen ($15M x 1)

Sewald ($7.5M x 2)

Martin ($5.5M x 1)

 

SP: Gilbert, Houck, Nate, Gio, Bello, Crawford, Criswell, Priester, Dobbins, Murphy

RP: Jansen, Sewald, Hendriks, Slaten, Martin, Whitlock, Wink, Kelly, Bernardino, Fulmer, Weissert, I Campbell, Guerrero

C: Wong, Gasper (Teel and Jo Garcia not on 40)

1B: Casas (Gasper) (Jordan not on 40)

2B: Story, DHam-Grissom (platoon)

SS: Mayer (Story) Romy (Romero not on 40)

3B: Devers (Meidroth not on 40)

LF: Duran, E Valdez/Sogard (Castro not on 40)

CF: Rafaela (Duran) (Jh. Garcia not on 40)

RF: Abreu-Refsnyder (platoon)

DH: Yoshida (Hickey not on 40)

 

Is this enough?

 

Is this even possible?

 

i'd rather give up Mayer than Anthony. and i'd rather have Kirby than Gilbert. Seattle has a number of young pitchers in their organization but they lack hitters -sort of the opposite of the Red Sox.

Posted

It's hard to know what SP'ers might be on the block, this winter, and most will likely be too high-priced for JH's liking, but I will look through some teams that might be regrouping and come up with some names, later today.

 

Who might those teams be?

TOR

CWS

LAA

DET

MIA

COL

OAK

WSH

 

???

TBR

CIN

SFG

CHC

TEX

Posted
i'd rather give up Mayer than Anthony. and i'd rather have Kirby than Gilbert. Seattle has a number of young pitchers in their organization but they lack hitters -sort of the opposite of the Red Sox.

 

I like Anthony more than Mayer, too, but I think that is who SEA would insist on getting. I also think our middle IF is weaker than our OF (esp LHB OF'ers.)

 

I think the Sox farm matches up with SEA's needs, nicely.

Posted
I like Anthony more than Mayer, too, but I think that is who SEA would insist on getting. I also think our middle IF is weaker than our OF (esp LHB OF'ers.)

 

I think the Sox farm matches up with SEA's needs, nicely.

 

The Red Sox hype machine has fans ready for a big letdown if half their Top 10 prospects don't instantly turn into Fisk and Lynn -- or Nomar and Pedroia -- when they make the majors. Notice I didn't include Mookie, because he's a once-in-a-century Boston talent (like Babe Ruth, Johnny Appleseed and Paul Revere in previous centuries).

 

What's more likely is most of these guys will take a few years of ups and downs, and sophomore slumps to reach stardom. Bogaerts hit .240/.660 his first full season in the bigs, then was a Silver Slugger five of the next eight. Varitek wasn't a #1 catcher until he was 27... nor an All-Star until he was 31. Marcelo Mayer may become a star hitter, but not even as a shortstop...

 

While we all wait for a green core to coalesce, better brace for more bare-bones pitching rotations -- like last winter, when getting rid of Sale and signing Giolito (even if he played), did absolutely nothing to address adding pitching depth. The Sox' biggest improvement to the staff was getting a new coach to coax the most out of starters who never took regular turns through a rotation for an entire season before.

Posted
The Red Sox hype machine has fans ready for a big letdown if half their Top 10 prospects don't instantly turn into Fisk and Lynn -- or Nomar and Pedroia -- when they make the majors. Notice I didn't include Mookie, because he's a once-in-a-century Boston talent (like Babe Ruth, Johnny Appleseed and Paul Revere in previous centuries).

 

What's more likely is most of these guys will take a few years of ups and downs, and sophomore slumps to reach stardom. Bogaerts hit .240/.660 his first full season in the bigs, then was a Silver Slugger five of the next eight. Varitek wasn't a #1 catcher until he was 27... nor an All-Star until he was 31. Marcelo Mayer may become a star hitter, but not even as a shortstop...

 

While we all wait for a green core to coalesce, better brace for more bare-bones pitching rotations -- like last winter, when getting rid of Sale and signing Giolito (even if he played), did absolutely nothing to address adding pitching depth. The Sox' biggest improvement to the staff was getting a new coach to coax the most out of starters who never took regular turns through a rotation for an entire season before.

 

It's not just New England pumping up our top 3-4 prospects, but I agree on the timetable being slow to develop.

 

I think the idea of replacing Sale with Gio was that we would not need as much depth, as Gio was projected to make 27-32 starts, while Sale's could be anywhere from 0- 27.

Community Moderator
Posted
I'm super high on Campbell, and his RHB is needed, but you have to give to get, and I want to hold onto mayer and Teel. I think having Jh Garcia lessens the blow of losing Campbell. I think Cespedes and Arias are too far away to have great trade value. Bleis maye, as well, and I doubt SEA wants 2 OF'ers for a TOTR SP.

 

Too bad SEA isn't hurting for Mayer, right?

Community Moderator
Posted
i'd rather give up Mayer than Anthony. and i'd rather have Kirby than Gilbert. Seattle has a number of young pitchers in their organization but they lack hitters -sort of the opposite of the Red Sox.

 

They have JP Crawford and Jorge Polanco signed for a few more years. Maybe they'd put Mayer at 3B?

Community Moderator
Posted
The Red Sox hype machine has fans ready for a big letdown if half their Top 10 prospects don't instantly turn into Fisk and Lynn -- or Nomar and Pedroia -- when they make the majors. Notice I didn't include Mookie, because he's a once-in-a-century Boston talent (like Babe Ruth, Johnny Appleseed and Paul Revere in previous centuries).

 

What's more likely is most of these guys will take a few years of ups and downs, and sophomore slumps to reach stardom. Bogaerts hit .240/.660 his first full season in the bigs, then was a Silver Slugger five of the next eight. Varitek wasn't a #1 catcher until he was 27... nor an All-Star until he was 31. Marcelo Mayer may become a star hitter, but not even as a shortstop...

 

While we all wait for a green core to coalesce, better brace for more bare-bones pitching rotations -- like last winter, when getting rid of Sale and signing Giolito (even if he played), did absolutely nothing to address adding pitching depth. The Sox' biggest improvement to the staff was getting a new coach to coax the most out of starters who never took regular turns through a rotation for an entire season before.

 

When Pedroia first came up, he struggled for a bit before the laser show finally came on.

 

Teel is just going to be a league average catcher at best. I think people are expecting too much out of him. He's not Adley.

 

Out of the 3, Anthony is the guy with the MVP upside.

Posted
Starting this thread earlier, this year, but this should not be taken as a sign of giving up on 2024. It is not.

 

Again, there are a lot of unknowns going into 2025, including the budget and how and when we can or will improve our pitching staff. I'm not sure we have ever been so sure about the everyday player alignment going into 2025, but a few choices need to be made there:

Do we swap a LHB for a RHB?

Do we count on using one or two of the big 3 prospects, early in the season, or do we wait it out and play the years of control game with 2-3 of them? Other than that, I think we look pretty set on the everyday 13:

 

C: Wong & ____ (Teel AAA or someone like Gasper or Heineman)

1B: Casas (Romy)

2B: Story (DHam-Romy)

SS: Mayer (or Story)

3B: Devers

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu-Refsnyder platoon (Anthony in AAA)

DH: Yoshida

 

We all know the area that needs serious attention. We simply cannot go into 2025, expecting success without some major additions, and I'm not talking 1-2. We need to add 1-2 above and beyond replacing Jansen, Martin & Pivetta. That looks like 5 solid additions needed, minimum. This can be done via free agency or by trading some bottle-necked prospects or younger players for quality pitching. This is by no means a sure bet to happen. JH has been reluctant to spend on the rotation or to trade any top prospects away. The last highest ranked prospects traded were Beeks in '18 for Eovaldi, Aldo Ramirez in '21 for Schwarber and Matthew Lugo and Nick Yorke, this summer. That is not a solid track record of trading prospects for top quality players. I'm not making predictions. There will plenty of those made by many of us, in the coming months.

 

Here's a quick look at the budget situation (AAV dollars):

 

FAs: Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, O'Neill, Paxton, DJansen, L Garcia, L Sims

29.1 Devers

23.3 Story

18.0 Yoshida

9.2 Bello

6.3 Rafaela

5.0 Hendriks (option)

4.7 Whitlock

2.0 Refsnyder

Arbs (Est.):

7.4 Duran (1 of 4)

7.0 Houck (1 of 3)

3.0 Crawford (1 of 4)

1.0 Heineman (1 of 3, may be non tendered)

 

This comes to about $116M. Add the pre-arb contracts, 0-3 bonus pool (1.7) and player benefits (17.5) and it comes to about $150-155M. The CBT first line is $241M, so to spend up to that line might mean we have about $80-90M for the winter spending budget. (That is not to say JH will agree to that much spending.)

 

I'll go over the 40 man roster, next, but here are the 5-6 essential needs for 2025:

SP1-2

SP2-3

SP5-6

Closer

Set Up

RP or RHB

 

The Projected 40 Man Roster before any trades or signings:

 

Red= Bubble (Non tender, Rule 5 Bubble, DFA or trade?)

Blue= Likely Rule 5 Protected

 

SP Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Criswell, Priester, Perales, Fitts, Dobbins, Monegro Mata, Murphy, Wikelman, Gambrell

RP Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Kelly, Bernardino, Weissert, I Campbell, Booser, Fulmer, GuerreroHorn, Shugart

C Wong, Heineman or Gasper

1B Casas Dalbec

2B Grissom, DHam

SS Story, Romy

3B Devers

LF Duran E Valdez, Castro

CF Rafaela Jh Garica

RF Abreu, Refsnyder

DH Yoshida

 

There may not be a big roster crunch, unless we start adding more than 5-6 FAs or trade additions for no 40 man roster players.

 

Not needed to protect for Rule 5, but roster depth, if needed:

SP: Penrod, Drohan, Sandlin, Early

RP: Mills, Cellucci, Liu, Hoppe, Troye

C: Teel

1B: Jordan/Meidroth

2B: Mayer/Campbell

SS: Mayer, Romero

3B: Meidroth

LF: Sogard

CF: Campbell

RF: Anthony

DH: Hickey/Gasper

 

This could be an eventful winter or more of the same ole sham. Maybe, somewhere in between. I'm not optimistic, but I have not lost hope.

 

 

 

Fantastic laydown--including your 2d post on the same topic--as only you are capable of doing.

 

I pretty much buy your central argument, which is that this time, finally, Breslow needs to be empowered to fix the pitching by offering up both top Sox prospects and competitive salaries for incoming pitchers. As you say, the Sox can do that and stay below $241M (total payroll).

 

If we disagree, it might be about how deep next year's outfield is compared to the infield because I see an infield with Devers, Casas, Story, and Mayer backed up by Hamilton, Campbell, Grissom, and Gonzalez. The outfield: Rafaela, Duran, Abreu, Ref, and Anthony.

 

I also think Breslow needs to look for one or more good righty bats. The Sox splits this year vs lefty pitchers provide compelling evidence to support that. Duran's OPS dips to .667, Devers .760, Yoshida .639, Abreu .512, Hamilton .566.

Community Moderator
Posted
Since everyone is working on their initial roster for 2025 and penciling in Rob Refsnyder's 2M, go read Pete Abe's article. Ref is considering retiring to move into a front office position so that he wouldn't have to travel. He has young kids and he wants to be around them more. Plus, he's been dealing with a heel issue all year that may not get better.
Posted
When Pedroia first came up, he struggled for a bit before the laser show finally came on.

 

Teel is just going to be a league average catcher at best. I think people are expecting too much out of him. He's not Adley.

 

Out of the 3, Anthony is the guy with the MVP upside.

 

I'm not talking about a bad month or two, like Pedey had when he started -- and then won Rookie of the Year. The next season he celebrated his Sophomore Slump by winning AL MVP.

 

I'm just wary these guys might take some time, once they make The Show, and even encounter some ups and downs.

 

Anthony, as a lefty power hitting outfielder, isn't projected to be another Yaz or Lynn, but looks like he has 30 HR potential (led the Eastern League in XBH when called up)... and at his age, can he do that for a decade (only four outfielders reached 300 longballs for the Red Sox: Ted, Yaz, Rice, Evans). We should at least hope he's in the dirtdog mold of another high schooler drafted by Boston: Trot Nixon, with a career .844 OPS...

 

Mayer and Teel, when they were promoted to Worcester, were 1-2 in batting average in the Eastern League. If you lead your entire league in hitting, that promises more than average at another level, once it's populated by many of the same peers. Bello dominated Double A two years ago; it's why I expect him to eventually be more than a #3 starter in the rotation...

Posted
When Pedroia first came up, he struggled for a bit before the laser show finally came on.

 

Teel is just going to be a league average catcher at best. I think people are expecting too much out of him. He's not Adley.

 

Out of the 3, Anthony is the guy with the MVP upside.

 

and why i'd rather give up Mayer and/or Teel. i'd rather keep Campbell than Mayer or Teel.

Posted
Where has harmony been?

 

And does he still believe that Kelenic is as good as Duran?

harmony never compared Jarren Duran and Jarred Kelenic.

 

It was worse: harmony preferred Taylor Trammell over Jarren Duran.

 

Duran should be commended for far exceeding expectations after accumulating only 2.0 fWAR in 193 MLB games through his 27th birthday.

 

FWIW Seattle is unlikely to trade Logan Gilbert or George Kirby, especially for a package headed by an unproven 20-year-old prospect. FanGraphs assigns Roman Anthony a Future Value of 55 with a projected 2026 WAR of 1.8 over 119 games in his age 22 season:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/roman-anthony/sa3020211/stats?position=OF

Community Moderator
Posted
and why i'd rather give up Mayer and/or Teel. i'd rather keep Campbell than Mayer or Teel.

 

Teel and Mayer can play the field adequately. Campbell?

Posted
harmony, what if we also included more c list prospects? Does that move the needle?

Despite this year's disappointments. Seattle is fairly well-positioned for the next few years.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P55um0jB8gsz4M2Q7hFeD6aFki7n74DBC1tsWXwoD5U/edit?pli=1&gid=1520401900#gid=1520401900

 

The Mariners are unlikely to undergo a full rebuild by trading valuable assets for prospects. The M's are more likely to trade prospects for an established bat.

 

Can the Red Sox manipulate the service time of Triston Casas to leave the first baseman short of two years at the end of this season? Would the Sox trade Casas for five years of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo?

 

The Mariners and Red Sox probably don't match up for a trade.

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