A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Hey the White Sox have beat the Orioles, Twins, Astros, Guardians, Royals and the Yankees at various times this year.  

Bad teams will beat good teams, it's a 162-game schedule and these are still professional players.  Sweeping, even a lowly team is very hard.  If this was a month or two ago, I wouldn't be disappointed with taking 2 out of 3 but at this point in the season you pretty much have to just win. 

I know the Sox had a good stretch, but now I'm questioning what's the most games in a row they won this year? It never felt like they truly got really hot at any point. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2024-schedule-scores.shtml

5, they did it three times. 

[moonslav59]

March-April: We won 5 in a row, very early in the season and lost 4 straight, not too long afterwards. We won 7 out of 10 to end April.

May: We lost 6 of 7 and went 4-11 in early May, then won 4 in a row, before losing 5 of 7 near the end of May.

June:  We won 4 in a row, once (and 6 of 7.)  and lost 4 in a row, later.

July: We won 5 straight from June 30-July 5 (and 7 of 8.) Later, we lost 3 in a row and 2 in a row, only once each, that month.

August: We won 5 of 6 to end July and start AUG, and then the wheels came off. We lost 4 in a row, twice in AUG. The best we did after the start of AUG was a 4 of 6 stretch.

We lost 5 in a row to end Aug and start Sept. We have just won 3 of 4, since.

All-in-all, not many real long winning or losing stretches:

Maybe these are the best and worst longer stretches...

12-19 since Aug 6th.

17-11 Mar 31 to May 1.

15-7 from May 31 to June 24.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It all pretty much adds up to Maestros of Mediocrity.  Even Stevens.

[moonslav59]

The Sox need to get ahead of DET and SEA, who we are tied with, now, but MIN looks like the team we need to pass. Here is who they play to end the season:

2 more vs LAA then 3 v CIN

4@CLE and 3 @ BOS

3 v MIA and 3 v BAL

The KCR are 2.5 ahead of MIN and play: 2@NYY, 3 @ PIT, 3 v DET, 3 v SFG and end with 3@WSH and 3@ATL.

 

[Hugh2]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2024-schedule-scores.shtml

5, they did it three times. 

yeah that makes sense, they had that good run in the middle of the season right before the all star break.  But they seemingly never had that 10 game win streak. 

Actually, not seemingly, they didn't.  5 it is. 

[Hugh2]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It all pretty much adds up to Maestros of Mediocrity.  Even Stevens.

I mean......it's a step up from the "3 last place finishes in 4 years"!!!!

Maybe not a big step, but a step none the less. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean......it's a step up from the "3 last place finishes in 4 years"!!!!

Maybe not a big step, but a step none the less. 

I'll take 3rd place over '20, '22 and '23 all day every day. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

52 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It all pretty much adds up to Maestros of Mediocrity.  Even Stevens.

(Thought I already posted this): The sad state of the AL LEAST is that -- as of today -- since July 1, only the Yankees have played .500 ball: at exactly .500.

All the other ALE clubs have losing records. 

All the Red Sox had to do was win more than they lost. But they didn't...

... been saying ALE is overrated since last winter; it's one of the reasons I mostly drink PILSNER.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

March-April: We won 5 in a row, very early in the season and lost 4 straight, not too long afterwards. We won 7 out of 10 to end April.

May: We lost 6 of 7 and went 4-11 in early May, then won 4 in a row, before losing 5 of 7 near the end of May.

June:  We won 4 in a row, once (and 6 of 7.)  and lost 4 in a row, later.

July: We won 5 straight from June 30-July 5 (and 7 of 8.) Later, we lost 3 in a row and 2 in a row, only once each, that month.

August: We won 5 of 6 to end July and start AUG, and then the wheels came off. We lost 4 in a row, twice in AUG. The best we did after the start of AUG was a 4 of 6 stretch.

We lost 5 in a row to end Aug and start Sept. We have just won 3 of 4, since.

All-in-all, not many real long winning or losing stretches:

Maybe these are the best and worst longer stretches...

12-19 since Aug 6th.

17-11 Mar 31 to May 1.

15-7 from May 31 to June 24.

 

I would think what they have done since Aug 6th is a better example of how the team is playing right now than what they did in the spring.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I would think what they have done since Aug 6th is a better example of how the team is playing right now than what they did in the spring.

Agreed, but couldn't someone claim, what we have done in the last 6 games is a better example than what we did August 6th to 10th vs Aug 1st to 5th?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but couldn't someone claim, what we have done in the last 6 games is a better example than what we did August 6th to 10th vs Aug 1st to 5th?

If you think that what they have done vs the Pale Hose carries much weight.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

If you think that what they have done vs the Pale Hose carries much weight.

So, recency doesn't matter, then?

2 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

If you think that what they have done vs the Pale Hose carries much weight.

 

[Old Red]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but couldn't someone claim, what we have done in the last 6 games is a better example than what we did August 6th to 10th vs Aug 1st to 5th?

You could have done that all year long, and guess what? The record would still be what it is today, which is a few games over 500, which is nothing to brag about unless you have lowered the bar so much that anything 500, or above looks like an improvement, and a success.

[Bellhorn04]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean......it's a step up from the "3 last place finishes in 4 years"!!!!

Maybe not a big step, but a step none the less. 

Yeah, of course we're only 2 games ahead of the Rays for 4th.  

[Bellhorn04]

We're basically a .500 team for the 6 years 2019-2024.

[Maxbialystock]

Right now, Tuesday, Sep 10, the 3d wild card slot, currently held by the Twins, is a dogfight among the Twins, who have the 3d slot, and the Tigers, Sox, and Mariners.  The latter 3 are all 73-70 and 3 games behind the Twins.

All 4 teams have 18 games to play.  The Twins are in the catbird seat, but have just lost 4 straight.  Up ahead are 2 more against the Angels, 3 vs the Reds, 4 @ Cleveland, 3 @ Boston, 3 vs Miami, and 3 vs Baltimore. 

 If the Twins finish 9-9, the Sox (or Tigers or Mariners) have to go 12-6 to tie them, so a big edge to the Twins.

If the Twins go 7-11, which right now looks very possible, the Sox/Tigers/Mariners only have to go 10-8 to tie the Twins, which is doable.  

While I think it's possible for the Twins to be caught, I have difficulty seeing the Sox doing the catching.  Bullpen is a disaster, and the hitting is inconsistent.  

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Right now, Tuesday, Sep 10, the 3d wild card slot, currently held by the Twins, is a dogfight among the Twins, who have the 3d slot, and the Tigers, Sox, and Mariners.  The latter 3 are all 73-70 and 3 games behind the Twins.

All 4 teams have 18 games to play.  The Twins are in the catbird seat, but have just lost 4 straight.  Up ahead are 2 more against the Angels, 3 vs the Reds, 4 @ Cleveland, 3 @ Boston, 3 vs Miami, and 3 vs Baltimore. 

 If the Twins finish 9-9, the Sox (or Tigers or Mariners) have to go 12-6 to tie them, so a big edge to the Twins.

If the Twins go 7-11, which right now looks very possible, the Sox/Tigers/Mariners only have to go 10-8 to tie the Twins, which is doable.  

While I think it's possible for the Twins to be caught, I have difficulty seeing the Sox doing the catching.  Bullpen is a disaster, and the hitting is inconsistent.  

I agree. The best chance we have is sweeping the Twins when we play them for 3. If we take 2 of 3, we gain just one game, and still have to win and pray they lose.

The corner we backed ourselves into is very dark.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

So, recency doesn't matter, then?

 

It certainly does, as does the quality of the opponent. Nice win last night vs the Orioles though.

[moonslav59]

Just now, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

It certainly does, as does the quality of the opponent. Nice win last night vs the Orioles though.

Yes, it's not just recency, of course, nor is it picking the exact date that things tuned badly as the defining point on just how badly we have been doing.

Yes, it matters, but so does taking 2 of 3 from CWS and a big win against BAL, most recently.

Sometimes, and I'm not predicting a long winning stretch, beating a bad team gets a team into a winning mojo.

(I'm trying hard to stay hopeful.)

[moonslav59]

Crawford needs to turn it around.

Pivetta, tomorrow.

Keep the mojo rising!

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, it's not just recency, of course, nor is it picking the exact date that things tuned badly as the defining point on just how badly we have been doing.

Yes, it matters, but so does taking 2 of 3 from CWS and a big win against BAL, most recently.

Sometimes, and I'm not predicting a long winning stretch, beating a bad team gets a team into a winning mojo.

(I'm trying hard to stay hopeful.)

I thought this was the "realistic" thread, not the "hopeful" thread. My bad.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I thought this was the "realistic" thread, not the "hopeful" thread. My bad.

So, you think teams are doomed to repeat precisely what they have done since Aug 6th? 

How realistic is that?

The fact is, this team has had many ups and downs. Maybe we are done with the ups, for the year, maybe not.

Again, I see no sign of a great run coming up, but it's not unrealistic to think it might happen. Besides, with 18 games left, is it near impossible this happens?

We go 3-0 v MIN and 8-7 vs the others, while MIN goes 0-3 vs us and 7-8 in the other games. It might be against the odds, but I'm not sure it is unrealistic, just yet.

[dgalehouse]

The Sox have a real chance at the wild card. They actually have more talent than the other contenders. But this is artificially created excitement, courtesy of MLB. A bunch of basically mediocre teams fighting for a hokey third wild card. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Crawford needs to turn it around.

Pivetta, tomorrow.

Keep the mojo rising!

Baltimore leads the majors in slugging. 

Crawford and Pivetta lead the majors in slugging pitches off sweet spots on bat barrels.

What could go right?

(A: left-handed pulled longballs, right-handed pop-ups to Pesky Pole).

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Baltimore leads the majors in slugging. 

Crawford and Pivetta lead the majors in slugging pitches off sweet spots on bat barrels.

What could go right?

(A: left-handed pulled longballs, right-handed pop-ups to Pesky Pole).

LOL

We've had numerous games, where we look beat, on paper, but win.

(We also have too many games with the opposite true.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

LOL

We've had numerous games, where we look beat, on paper, but win.

(We also have too many games with the opposite true.)

Before the season started, most of us would have been satisfied that any games in September would matter.

When it's all over and we sit back and review 2024, it will be hard for anyone not named Sam to hang a label of "underachievers" on a roster full of one- or two-tool players.

[Bellhorn04]

On 9/9/2024 at 9:48 PM, Duran Is The Man said:

more proof that the Sox FO is full of clueless morons. they're paying him $12 million TO NOT PITCH this year. but they got rid of Sale because he had been hurt in years past. f***ing morons.

Hendriks and Sale are almost exactly the same age, too.

[Duran Is The Man]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hendriks and Sale are almost exactly the same age, too.

their decisions are insane. i've said it before and i'll say it again: you, notin, mvp and moon would do a better job than Brezslow and the rest of Henry's brown-noser, yes-men.

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Before the season started, most of us would have been satisfied that any games in September would matter.

When it's all over and we sit back and review 2024, it will be hard for anyone not named Sam to hang a label of "underachievers" on a roster full of one- or two-tool players.

I'm not sure how we'd be "underachievers," if we stayed in the race longer than expected.

[moonslav59]

Bobby Dee went unclaimed and is now a non-40 man roster player for Woo.