6/09 SOX @ White Sox 2:10PM ET Can the Even Stevens Do It Again?

[moonslav59]

PLus, the point was about who "earned a slot" not who fans will vote for.

 

Duran, Devers, Houck and Slaten have "earned" a slot, so far.

 

Wong is #2 in fWAR for AL Catchers. He might deserve a slot.

 

3-4 good starts by Crawford puts him in the "earned" mix.

[mvp 78]

Fans only vote for the starters and the 26th man or whatever. My post was in relation to all the guys that get selected purely on merit and not voting. (Online voting shows AVG, HR, RBI, OPS,

 

Chance of All Star Game Appearance (ignoring future injury)

 

Devers: 75%

Houck: 95%

Duran: 40%

Slaten: 5%

Wong: 5%

Abreu: 1%

Kutter: 0%

Kenley: 0%

[moonslav59]

Fans only vote for the starters and the 26th man or whatever. My post was in relation to all the guys that get selected purely on merit and not voting. (Online voting shows AVG, HR, RBI, OPS,

 

Chance of All Star Game Appearance (ignoring future injury)

 

Devers: 75%

Houck: 95%

Duran: 40%

Slaten: 5%

Wong: 5%

Abreu: 1%

Kutter: 0%

Kenley: 0%

 

I'd say....

95% Houck

85% Devers

50% Duran

20% Wong

10% Slaten

5% Crawford

1% Abreu & Jansen

[mvp 78]

I think it's lower for the others because they have to squeeze someone from each team onto the squad. That limits the types of pitchers that get put in the ASG. If the Sox were a wagon, they'd have more representation, but they are a .500 team. They'll probably have 2 players and that's it. If there's a third, it'll be Duran. Nobody else realistically has a shot.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think it's lower for the others because they have to squeeze someone from each team onto the squad. That limits the types of pitchers that get put in the ASG. If the Sox were a wagon, they'd have more representation, but they are a .500 team. They'll probably have 2 players and that's it. If there's a third, it'll be Duran. Nobody else realistically has a shot.

 

Duran arguably deserves to be an All-Star over Devers right now. He leads the club in WAR (6th in AL), leads the majors in triples, and is 4th in the league in doubles, stolen bases, and defensive WAR.

 

Raffy is 5th in AL OPS, 9th in homers (tied with five others).

 

Neither is a starter - Duran is at least behind Judge-Soto-Tucker, while at the hot corner Jose Ramirez leads the AL in RBI, is 4th in runs scored and extra-base hits, and is the toughest man in three divisions to strike out.

[moonslav59]

Duran arguably deserves to be an All-Star over Devers right now. He leads the club in WAR (6th in AL), leads the majors in triples, and is 4th in the league in doubles, stolen bases, and defensive WAR.

 

Raffy is 5th in AL OPS, 9th in homers (tied with five others).

 

Neither is a starter - Duran is at least behind Judge-Soto-Tucker, while at the hot corner Jose Ramirez leads the AL in RBI, is 4th in runs scored and extra-base hits, and is the toughest man in three divisions to strike out.

 

I think Duran and Devers deserve to be subs. Houck is a lock, as of now.

[notin]

Duran arguably deserves to be an All-Star over Devers right now. He leads the club in WAR (6th in AL), leads the majors in triples, and is 4th in the league in doubles, stolen bases, and defensive WAR.

 

Raffy is 5th in AL OPS, 9th in homers (tied with five others).

 

Neither is a starter - Duran is at least behind Judge-Soto-Tucker, while at the hot corner Jose Ramirez leads the AL in RBI, is 4th in runs scored and extra-base hits, and is the toughest man in three divisions to strike out.

 

 

Looking at fWAR, Duran is tied for fourth among AL outfielders, behind the 3 names mentioned above . Devers is fourrh among AL third basemen, behind Ramírez, Westburg and Paredes.

 

Does Devers go at all?

[mvp 78]

Looking at fWAR, Duran is tied for fourth among AL outfielders, behind the 3 names mentioned above . Devers is fourrh among AL third basemen, behind Ramírez, Westburg and Paredes.

 

Does Devers go at all?

 

fWAR is the most meaningful statistic for the All Star Game?

[moonslav59]

Looking at fWAR, Duran is tied for fourth among AL outfielders, behind the 3 names mentioned above . Devers is fourrh among AL third basemen, behind Ramírez, Westburg and Paredes.

 

Does Devers go at all?

 

4th best OF'ers do deserve a slot on the AS team- just not as a starter.

 

I think the fact that Devers is close to having a career year, and has name recognition, he would be chosen, if the choice was made, now.

 

I think OPS matters more than fWAR to many fans.

 

BTW, bWAR has Devers ahead of Paredes.

 

2.5 Westburg

1.8 Devers

1.6 Paredes

[mvp 78]

4th best OF'ers do deserve a slot on the AS team- just not as a starter.

 

I think the fact that Devers is close to having a career year, and has name recognition, he would be chosen, if the choice was made, now.

 

I think OPS matters more than fWAR to many fans.

 

BTW, bWAR has Devers ahead of Paredes.

 

2.5 Westburg

1.8 Devers

1.6 Paredes

 

fWAR is not listed on the online voting ballots, OPS is.

[notin]

fWAR is the most meaningful statistic for the All Star Game?

 

It absolutely is when the first words on your post are “Looking at fWAR”…

[notin]

4th best OF'ers do deserve a slot on the AS team- just not as a starter.

 

I think the fact that Devers is close to having a career year, and has name recognition, he would be chosen, if the choice was made, now.

 

I think OPS matters more than fWAR to many fans.

 

BTW, bWAR has Devers ahead of Paredes.

 

2.5 Westburg

1.8 Devers

1.6 Paredes

 

Name recognition is more helpful for selecting names on ballots. If it becomes a factor in the bench, Alex Bregman enters the picture…

[notin]

fWAR is not listed on the online voting ballots, OPS is.

 

Ok, but fWAR is better for determining who is the better player at a position this year. And fan balloting means little towards determining bench players, which is a much more likely scenario for Devers.

 

Bench players are chose with player ballot and the Commissioner’s Office. Is OPS or fWAR more useful there?

[moonslav59]

Name recognition is more helpful for selecting names on ballots. If it becomes a factor in the bench, Alex Bregman enters the picture…

 

That's absurd. Bregman never enters any picture.

 

Part of picking the subs is based on who do fans want to see play. I think Devers might be chosen over Westburg and Paredes for that reason. He's a better and more proven batter.

 

Duran looks like the 4th best OF'er almost any way you want to look. He should be chosen as a sub.

[mvp 78]

Ok, but fWAR is better for determining who is the better player at a position this year. And fan balloting means little towards determining bench players, which is a much more likely scenario for Devers.

 

Bench players are chose with player ballot and the Commissioner’s Office. Is OPS or fWAR more useful there?

 

You think players know OPS or fWAR more? I think it's probably OPS.

[mvp 78]

That's absurd. Bregman never enters any picture.

 

Part of picking the subs is based on who do fans want to see play. I think Devers might be chosen over Westburg and Paredes for that reason. He's a better and more proven batter.

 

Duran looks like the 4th best OF'er almost any way you want to look. He should be chosen as a sub.

 

The tough part with Duran is that there's just so many names on the ballot that he'll get lost in the shuffle.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4th best OF'ers do deserve a slot on the AS team- just not as a starter.

 

I think the fact that Devers is close to having a career year, and has name recognition, he would be chosen, if the choice was made, now.

 

I think OPS matters more than fWAR to many fans.

 

BTW, bWAR has Devers ahead of Paredes.

 

2.5 Westburg

1.8 Devers

1.6 Paredes

 

Westburg has played one-third of his games at second base. Not sure if that helps or hurts his dWAR...

[moonslav59]

The tough part with Duran is that there's just so many names on the ballot that he'll get lost in the shuffle.

 

I will not be surprised, at all, if he does not get picked.

 

I'm just saying, as of now, he seems to be the 4th deserving OF'er in the AL.

[dgalehouse]

OPS is a real thing . fWAR is not. Does the average baseball fan know how to compute fWAR ? Is there a mathematical formula that determines one guy is a 1.8 and another guy is a 1.6 ? It is just some guy's invention. A mystery to most fans. And not something that effects their All Star voting.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I will not be surprised, at all, if he does not get picked.

 

I'm just saying, as of now, he seems to be the 4th deserving OF'er in the AL.

 

I won't even be surprised if Duran is picked as a reserve and winds up starting, when the all-in Yankees make Judge or Soto go visit Manny's gramma (morgue or less).

[Bellhorn04]

OPS is a real thing . fWAR is not. Does the average baseball fan know how to compute fWAR ? Is there a mathematical formula that determines one guy is a 1.8 and another guy is a 1.6 ? It is just some guy's invention. A mystery to most fans. And not something that effects their All Star voting.

 

It's only recently anybody knew what the hell OPS was.

 

Nobody knows exactly know how to calculate WAR, but it's easy enough to look up.

[moonslav59]

I won't even be surprised if Duran is picked as a reserve and winds up starting, when the all-in Yankees make Judge or Soto go visit Manny's gramma (morgue or less).

 

Manny had 18 grannys!

[dgalehouse]

It's only recently anybody knew what the hell OPS was.

 

Nobody knows exactly know how to calculate WAR, but it's easy enough to look up.

 

On base and slugging percentages have been around a long time.. They are easy to figure out. I don't know that it was necessary to add them together to create a new stat, but it is easy to do. Personally, I don't know of anyone who would take the time to try to compute a player's fWAR. And if they did, would it match with what the website puts out ?

[moonslav59]

On base and slugging percentages have been around a long time.. They are easy to figure out. I don't know that it was necessary to add them together to create a new stat, but it is easy to do. Personally, I don't know of anyone who would take the time to try to compute a player's fWAR. And if they did, would it match with what the website puts out ?

 

Does it matter?

 

It doesn't to me, and I value WAR.