Bello and Rafaela Extensions

[notin]

Murphy had UCL surgery. I wouldn't want him carrying anyone's bags for a long time.

 

Tell him to man up…

[moonslav59]

We really cannot go into 2025 wishing upon the injury free star.

 

We cannot go into 2025 needing 90% of our "what ifs" to come up positive.

 

Again, I'm expecting nothing more than more O'Neills and Criswells, at best, but I really feel like we are just 3 major additions from being a very strong contender.

 

I know, I know, three major players is a lot, and perhaps most current, non-contending teams could say the same. Perhaps 2 would be enough, but adding 3 would be ideal.

 

SP1 Houck

SP2_____

SP3_____

SP4 Giolito

SP5 Bello

SP6/Long RP Crawford

 

Closer Hendriks

RP2 Slaten

RP3 Whitlock

RP4 Bernardino

RP5 Weissert

RP6 Fulmer

RP7 Wink/Criswell/Fitts/Kelly/Campbell/Guerrero

 

C Wong/McGuire (Teel)

1B Casas

2B Grissom/DHam (Story)

SS Story/Romy (Mayer)

3B Devers

LF Duran/Ref

CF Rafaela (Anthony)

RF Abreu/Ref (Anthony)

DH__ RHB__/ Yoshida

 

DHs are not expensive. We lose the salaries of Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill. cots has us $106M under the tax line for '25. I could be wrong, but I think we could spend this much and still be under the tax line:

 

$25M SP2

$25M SP3

$15M Closer

$10M RHB DH (1B?)

$10M SS (depth)

 

Asking for 3 is not all that hard.

 

(I'm not expecting even 1 of these.)

 

[mvp 78]

Houck is 34 innings away from matching his professional season high (all levels) for innings. It will be interesting to see how they manage him going forward. I'm not comfortable with him being the #1 until we can see him go 170 innings and not have an issue. He might hit that right before the ASB.

[moonslav59]

Houck is 34 innings away from matching his professional season high (all levels) for innings. It will be interesting to see how they manage him going forward. I'm not comfortable with him being the #1 until we can see him go 170 innings and not have an issue. He might hit that right before the ASB.

 

He's getting 2 days extra rest, next start, but I do think they might want to limit these 7 IP starts, going forward.

 

All we need is a Houck injury.

[mvp 78]

They are paying Bello 9 AAV PRE ARB!!!! Christopher Sanchez just signed an extension for 4/22.5 (two option years after). They aren't the same pitcher, but that's what a reasonable extension looks. I liked the idea of extending Bello and Rafaela, but it was too much money for a team that is overly mindful of its budget.

[Old Red]

They are paying Bello 9 AAV PRE ARB!!!! Christopher Sanchez just signed an extension for 4/22.5 (two option years after). They aren't the same pitcher, but that's what a reasonable extension looks. I liked the idea of extending Bello and Rafaela, but it was too much money for a team that is overly mindful of its budget.

 

Well at least he’s only getting $1M this year, so hopefully he grows up, and gets better down the road when the money starts getting higher.

[mvp 78]

Well at least he’s only getting $1M this year, so hopefully he grows up, and gets better down the road when the money starts getting higher.

 

The cash payments don't mattter. What matters is the AAV that hits the luxury tax threshold (9 AAV).

[Bellhorn04]

They are paying Bello 9 AAV PRE ARB!!!! Christopher Sanchez just signed an extension for 4/22.5 (two option years after). They aren't the same pitcher, but that's what a reasonable extension looks. I liked the idea of extending Bello and Rafaela, but it was too much money for a team that is overly mindful of its budget.

 

Think there was some P.R. desperation involved in these extensions?

[mvp 78]

Think there was some P.R. desperation involved in these extensions?

 

Shoe betcha!

[moonslav59]

Well, the Rafaela extension is looking better, now, than it was a month ago.

 

Bello needs to have a summer like 2023 to bring up the talk on him.

[mvp 78]

Well, the Rafaela extension is looking better, now, than it was a month ago.

 

Bello needs to have a summer like 2023 to bring up the talk on him.

 

For a 666 OPS, it's still a massive overpay. Even if you projected him to hit 750, it's an overpay for such an early extension.

[mvp 78]

They shouldn't be large enough to hurt the Sox financially, but Henry seems so overly tight fisted now that you really have to think about EVERYTHING.

[moonslav59]

For a 666 OPS, it's still a massive overpay. Even if you projected him to hit 750, it's an overpay for such an early extension.

 

.750 with his D, an overpay?

 

I strongly disagree, especially as we know prices are going up and up.

 

I'd say .700-.725 is worth it. His ability to play CF and SS well is of great value.

[mvp 78]

.750 with his D, an overpay?

 

I strongly disagree, especially as we know prices are going up and up.

 

I'd say .700-.725 is worth it. His ability to play CF and SS well is of great value.

 

Yes, it's an overpay when you compare it to other extensions signed. For a guy with iffy MiLB offensive track record and NO MLB track record, it was a risk extending him for that amount. His defense is flashy as f***, but he also had 9 errors.

[moonslav59]

Yes, it's an overpay when you compare it to other extensions signed. For a guy with iffy MiLB offensive track record and NO MLB track record, it was a risk extending him for that amount. His defense is flashy as f***, but he also had 9 errors.

 

This isn't about what others have gotten: your point was that if he hits .750, it would be an overpay. It would not, IMO.

 

While the amount of errors he has made is frightening, the amount of plays he has made that maybe nobody or precious few would even make in their dreams numbers was more than 9.

 

He's still listed as being a +4 OAA in CF. I tend to think he will get a grip on the errors, over time, and maybe playing less SS would help him improve in CF, but I guess we will have to agree to disagree on CR.

[notin]

The biggest issue with the extension to Bello and Rafaela is it’s a reminder of the lack of extensions for Houck and Duran…

[moonslav59]

The biggest issue with the extension to Bello and Rafaela is it’s a reminder of the lack of extensions for Houck and Duran…

 

Agreed, but not many of us were clamouring for those a couple years or more ago.

[Bellhorn04]

The biggest issue with the extension to Bello and Rafaela is it’s a reminder of the lack of extensions for Houck and Duran…

 

Houck and Duran have been late bloomers. Pretty hard to predict they would get this good all of a sudden.

[notin]

Houck and Duran have been late bloomers. Pretty hard to predict they would get this good all of a sudden.

 

Have Bello and Rafaela really bloomed already?

[notin]

Houck and Duran have been late bloomers. Pretty hard to predict they would get this good all of a sudden.

 

I will say, Duran has 4 more years of control; no real rush to extend.

 

But Houck has much less…

[Bellhorn04]

Have Bello and Rafaela really bloomed already?

 

Nope, they were extended before blooming.

[notin]

Nope, they were extended before blooming.

 

Exactly. Which maybe could have been done with Houck. And Crawford…

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly. Which maybe could have been done with Houck. And Crawford…

 

Sure seems simple from here!

[mvp 78]

The biggest issue with the extension to Bello and Rafaela is it’s a reminder of the lack of extensions for Houck and Duran…

 

Duran's price tag is only increasing, Houck's too. Some guys could have been done on the cheap!!!

[mvp 78]

Houck and Duran have been late bloomers. Pretty hard to predict they would get this good all of a sudden.

 

Maybe not Duran as there was always a question about his bat, but Houck was at least an MLB caliber arm. They could have figured a reasonable amount for him.

[mvp 78]

Exactly. Which maybe could have been done with Houck. And Crawford…

 

I'd go year to year with a lot of pitchers, especially Kutter. He doesn't have the juice IMO.

[Hugh2]

Duran is turning into one of my favorite players on this team. But isn't he controlled through his age 31 season? No need go the extension route there.

[moonslav59]

Duran is turning into one of my favorite players on this team. But isn't he controlled through his age 31 season? No need go the extension route there.

 

I think the idea was to have extended him 2-3 years ago, maybe to age 32 or 33, at a less cost than he will get now.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the idea was to have extended him 2-3 years ago, maybe to age 32 or 33, at a less cost than he will get now.

 

Of course. But nobody knew he was capable of this kind of improvement in 2021-2022. He was written off by many.

 

There's no possible way to get every extension right, any more than than there is with free agents. It's a hard game to forecast.

[moonslav59]

Of course. But nobody knew he was capable of this kind of improvement in 2021-2022. He was written off by many.

 

There's no possible way to get every extension right, any more than than there is with free agents. It's a hard game to forecast.

 

Exactly, and hence this debate about Rafaela and Bello, who were both extended before knowing much for sure.