Bello and Rafaela Extensions

[notin]

Man, I like all those guys, but Crawfords delivery really scares me. He won't be a free agent until his age 33 season, I'm good with riding out his team control years.

 

 

That was always the primary criticism of Sale, as well...

[Dipre]

That was always the primary criticism of Sale, as well...

 

With good reason ultimately.

[Bellhorn04]

That was always the primary criticism of Sale, as well...

 

With good reason ultimately.

 

Yeah, the critics in the armchairs always know what's what.

 

What if there was no other way for Sale to pitch and be successful?

 

Plus even with all the injuries, he's 9th among active pitchers in career innings.

[Dipre]

Yeah, the critics in the armchairs always know what's what.

 

What if there was no other way for Sale to pitch and be successful?

 

Plus even with all the injuries, he's 9th among active pitchers in career innings.

 

That's not the point. We're making a factual statement here. Sale is an inverted W pitcher, as presented by some pitching "gurus" way back when he was a prospect. Inverted W mechanics are usually the precursor of eventual TJS surgery. If anything, Sale stayed healthy way longer than what the "experts" predicted.

[Bellhorn04]

That's not the point. We're making a factual statement here. Sale is an inverted W pitcher, as presented by some pitching "gurus" way back when he was a prospect. Inverted W mechanics are usually the precursor of eventual TJS surgery. If anything, Sale stayed healthy way longer than what the "experts" predicted.

 

So what, though?

 

Pitching is a high risk profession, period.

 

Would Sale have had a better career with different mechanics? Can anyone honestly say?

[Dipre]

So what, though?

 

Pitching is a high risk profession, period.

 

Would Sale have had a better career with different mechanics? Can anyone honestly say?

 

No, but that wasn't the point anyone was trying to make. Just a reminder of something to watch out for. I mean, it's a valid discussion IMO.

[Hugh2]

That was always the primary criticism of Sale, as well...

 

And we saw what happened there. We have him for 4 more years through his age 32 season, I'm comfortable riding those out.

[Bellhorn04]

No, but that wasn't the point anyone was trying to make. Just a reminder of something to watch out for. I mean, it's a valid discussion IMO.

 

OK. It's just that we're kind of through the looking glass now when it comes to pitching injuries. They pretty much all get injured now at some point.

[notin]

OK. It's just that we're kind of through the looking glass now when it comes to pitching injuries. They pretty much all get injured now at some point.

 

Fine, but a run like Sale had with injuries is far from typical. I mean, who breaks a rib throwing a pitch?

[mvp 78]

Bernardino 1.4 bWAR

Bello 0.5 bWAR

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Fine, but a run like Sale had with injuries is far from typical. I mean, who breaks a rib throwing a pitch?

 

... or swinging a bat, Tris (maybe not bone, but at least tissue)!

[Maxbialystock]

It's obviously still early but Rafaela has been awful and currently a negative .3 WAR

 

He leads the Sox in rbi's with 28--batting 9th. He gets excellent reads in the outfield and has terrific speed--and he's a pretty fair SS. He's an everyday player, which is a rarity on the 2024 Sox. The Sox are ranked 10th in MLB in SB's with 45, and 25 of those are by Duran (11), Rafaela (7), and Abreu (7), the Sox outfield.

 

His OPS, .602, is tepid, and he leads the Sox in errors with 8, but I believe he is an asset in the lineup and in the field.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bernardino 1.4 bWAR

Bello 0.5 bWAR

 

That 1.4 is a very high WAR for any reliever after one-third of the games. Entire seasons for bullpen guys rarely reach 3 WAR (good starting pitchers often double that or more, because of the proportion of batters faced and innings pitched).

 

Clase, who leads the AL in saves, has a 1.8 bWAR. Suarez, who just struck out 13 straight in SD, is 1.7...

 

Mason Miller, the A's rookie who rules the world, has a 1.2 bWAR.... Yankee closer Holmes is 0.8.

[mvp 78]

He leads the Sox in rbi's with 28--batting 9th. He gets excellent reads in the outfield and has terrific speed--and he's a pretty fair SS. He's an everyday player, which is a rarity on the 2024 Sox. The Sox are ranked 10th in MLB in SB's with 45, and 25 of those are by Duran (11), Rafaela (7), and Abreu (7), the Sox outfield.

 

His OPS, .602, is tepid, and he leads the Sox in errors with 8, but I believe he is an asset in the lineup and in the field.

 

RBI isn't a sustainable stat.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

RBI isn't a sustainable stat.

 

Lou Gehrig was able to sustain driving in 100 or more runs in 13 straight years before a deadly illness ended his repeated annual production.

 

He must have some kind of consistent RBI ability, since the guy who batted right in front of him also had 100 or more ribbies 13 times, and wasn't always on base in front of Lou after knocking himself in with the most home runs in history for about half a century.

[mvp 78]

Lou Gehrig was able to sustain driving in 100 or more runs in 13 straight years before a deadly illness ended his repeated annual production.

 

He must have some kind of consistent RBI ability, since the guy who batted right in front of him also had 100 or more ribbies 13 times, and wasn't always on base in front of Lou after knocking himself in with the most home runs in history for about half a century.

 

What he had was great players around him constantly on base (400 OBPs) when he put the bat on the ball like Earle Combs, George Selkirk and Babe Ruth. He was a great player that averaged 33 HR's in that time period with guys constantly on base in front of him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What he had was great players around him constantly on base (400 OBPs) when he put the bat on the ball like Earle Combs, George Selkirk and Babe Ruth. He was a great player that averaged 33 HR's in that time period with guys constantly on base in front of him.

 

And Combs, Selkirk and Ruth had Gehrig constantly driving them all in.

 

Lou averaged 89 extra-base hits over 162 games in 17 seasons.

 

Ruth averaged 88 XBH in 22 seasons.

 

Devers and Papi have had more than 88 XBH once each. Mookie, Manny, Yaz, Rice never.

 

I know, level of competition has always been a factor pre- and post-integration. MLB is now recognizing Josh Gibson for the highest career batting average... that's great; but he didn't have to face Hubbell, Grove or Feller on a regular basis, either.

[notin]

That 1.4 is a very high WAR for any reliever after one-third of the games. Entire seasons for bullpen guys rarely reach 3 WAR (good starting pitchers often double that or more, because of the proportion of batters faced and innings pitched).

 

Clase, who leads the AL in saves, has a 1.8 bWAR. Suarez, who just struck out 13 straight in SD, is 1.7...

 

Mason Miller, the A's rookie who rules the world, has a 1.2 bWAR.... Yankee closer Holmes is 0.8.

 

When I read this, my first thought was “Bernardino probably has more IP than those guys.” Wins Above Replacement trends towards being a cumulative stat.

 

Nope. Fewer IP than all of them…

[Maxbialystock]

When I read this, my first thought was “Bernardino probably has more IP than those guys.” Wins Above Replacement trends towards being a cumulative stat.

 

Nope. Fewer IP than all of them…

 

It's both cumulative and qualitative.

[dgalehouse]

I was going to sit down with a pencil and paper and figure out how one guy's bWAR would be higher than another guy's. But it might be different on fWAR. Then I realized that I have no idea how it is derived. And I don't really care.

[Old Red]

I was going to sit down with a pencil and paper and figure out how one guy's bWAR would be higher than another guy's. But it might be different on fWAR. Then I realized that I have no idea how it is derived. And I don't really care.

 

👍 Not a care in the world.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela:

 

1st - errors

1st - double plays as OFer

2nd - errors as CFer

3rd - sac flies

3rd - sac hits

5th - caught stealing

[moonslav59]

Rafaela:

 

1st - errors

1st - double plays as OFer

2nd - errors as CFer

3rd - sac flies

3rd - sac hits

5th - caught stealing

 

On Sox...

1st RBIs (9 ahead of 3rd place Duran)

2nd in games and PAs

3rd SBs

4th in XBHs (18)

4th TBs (6 behind Abreu and 2 ahead of O'Neill)

4th in Runs (1 behind O'Neill)

 

 

[mvp 78]

On Sox...

1st RBIs (9 ahead of 3rd place Duran)

2nd in games and PAs

3rd SBs

4th in XBHs (18)

4th TBs (6 behind Abreu and 2 ahead of O'Neill)

4th in Runs (1 behind O'Neill)

 

 

 

Sox are 17th in hitter fWAR and have a 99 wRC+. His place in Sox standings doesn't get me excited.

[moonslav59]

Sox are 17th in hitter fWAR and have a 99 wRC+. His place in Sox standings doesn't get me excited.

 

Me neither. Is placements says more about others in the line-up than him, but as bad as he has been, he's not the worst. Not even in OPS, unless you set the sample size above 113 PAs. (which is not a whole hell of a lot, but it is 7th most for this season on the Sox.):

 

.367 Grissom 87 PAs

.385 Dalbec 63

.443 Cooper 68

.451 Reyes 64

 

.576 Valdez 113

.597 Rafaela 222

.610 McGuire 109

.632 Smith 106

 

.736 Yoshida 89

.743 DHam 109

.773 Duran 280

 

.829 Abreu 189

.832 Wong 167

.847 O'Neill 176

.857 Casas 90

 

.919 Refsnyder 111

.956 Devers 221

 

[mvp 78]

Me neither. Is placements says more about others in the line-up than him, but as bad as he has been, he's not the worst. Not even in OPS, unless you set the sample size above 113 PAs. (which is not a whole hell of a lot, but it is 7th most for this season on the Sox.):

 

.367 Grissom 87 PAs

.385 Dalbec 63

.443 Cooper 68

.451 Reyes 64

 

.576 Valdez 113

.597 Rafaela 222

.610 McGuire 109

.632 Smith 106

 

.736 Yoshida 89

.743 DHam 109

.773 Duran 280

 

.829 Abreu 189

.832 Wong 167

.847 O'Neill 176

.857 Casas 90

 

.919 Refsnyder 111

.956 Devers 221

 

 

Grissom is being paid the minimum. Dalbec is DFA/waiver candidate. Cooper is DFA/waiver candidate. Reyes was sent to AAA then traded. Valdez is a AAA guy and did not receive an extension. That's who you're comparing Rafaela's production with?

[moonslav59]

Grissom is being paid the minimum. Dalbec is DFA/waiver candidate. Cooper is DFA/waiver candidate. Reyes was sent to AAA then traded. Valdez is a AAA guy and did not receive an extension. That's who you're comparing Rafaela's production with?

 

I know.

 

I said, it says more about who else is in the line-up.

 

EValdez is 7th in team PAs. It is fair to compare Rafaela to other top 9 Sox players in PAs.

 

It's not a feather if Rafaela's cap, but the fact is, he is not "the worst," for what that is worth.

 

We have a lot of really bad OPS on this team.

 

We have over 220 PAs in 4 guys below .451. Add Valdez and we are near 340 PAs with a combined OPS around .460.

[mvp 78]

Bello a 5th starter?

[Bellhorn04]

Neither looking great.

[notin]

Bello a 5th starter?

 

He’s also only 25.

 

If the Sox gave Houck that extension last year, it would have been questioned all year, but it would look genius this season…