Bello and Rafaela Extensions

[mvp 78]

Wanted to see what the board thought about these extensions at the moment.

[Elktonnick]

I do not think Rafaela is major league ready. They brought him up too soon. IMO. Bello likewise it is too early to say.

[notin]

Wanted to see what the board thought about these extensions at the moment.

 

I like the idea of wrapping up young players early. Rafaela looks a bit worse because he’s a glove-first player playing out of position most of the time. But it’s good to see the Sox doing this for once. And it helps that neither of these deals are so crazy that the player cannot be dealt.

 

Next they need to extend Crawford and Houck…

[moonslav59]

I like the idea of wrapping up young players early. Rafaela looks a bit worse because he’s a glove-first player playing out of position most of the time. But it’s good to see the Sox doing this for once. And it helps that neither of these deals are so crazy that the player cannot be dealt.

 

Next they need to extend Crawford and Houck…

 

Agree on Houck and Crawford. I'd kick the tires hard with Casas, too.

 

I like the gamble on Rafaela.

 

Bello seems like a decent bet.

[redsoxrules]

It's obviously still early but Rafaela has been awful and currently a negative .3 WAR

[Bellhorn04]

I voted good for the sake of optimism, but if there was an "I have no freaking idea" option I probably would have chosen that.

[Hugh2]

I’m optimistic that they have started to extend young guys, but it feels like an overpay out of desperation at the same time.

 

I said all offseason and spring training that Rafaela needed more seasoning, mostly in dead ears. People just can’t seem to figure out spring training stats are largely useless.

 

I still really like Rafaela, I think him and Bello will be worth the money, but you sign guys this early you expect to get steep discounts.

[notin]

It's obviously still early but Rafaela has been awful and currently a negative .3 WAR

 

Never judge an 8 year extension by the first 6 weeks…

[Randy Red Sox]

i think in general both are good. it is obviously the strategy now to try and lock up our younger players on team friendly deals.

[Bellhorn04]

Never judge an 8 year extension by the first 6 weeks…

 

But this is a poll started on May 18/24 and that's all the data there is.

[notin]

But this is a poll started on May 18/24 and that's all the data there is.

 

When we have limited data, the debate is about the logic of these two extensions and not the results.

 

I can see an argument that Rafaela was probably not the right candidate. Big extensions for players based on defense are rare, and the only other one that leaps to mind (Seattle’s Evan White) was a massive flop at a much lower cost.

 

Bello’s $9mill AAV is high leverage reliever/backend starter money. So it’s not a big deal if that’s actually the role he settles into IMO.

 

And now lock up Houck and Crawford. Casas is being difficult so let him wait and think about how much value injury-prone first basemen with limited defense really have. Even the ones who can hit in April…

[Bellhorn04]

And now lock up Houck and Crawford. Casas is being difficult so let him wait and think about how much value injury-prone first basemen with limited defense really have. Even the ones who can hit in April…

 

Hit in April? Not sure why you added that. Casas started slow with the bat last year but got much better.

[notin]

Hit in April? Not sure why you added that. Casas started slow with the bat last year but got much better.

 

He struggled in April last year and this year. Granted, limited data points.

 

Clearly the Sox are going to struggle to extend Casas because they differ widely on how much he is worth. If that’s going to be the case, I’d prefer the Sox move on for now. There’s actually much more of a rush to extend Houck than Casas…

[Bellhorn04]

He struggled in April last year and this year. Granted, limited data points.

 

Clearly the Sox are going to struggle to extend Casas because they differ widely on how much he is worth. If that’s going to be the case, I’d prefer the Sox move on for now. There’s actually much more of a rush to extend Houck than Casas…

 

Casas had an OPS+ of 137 in March-April/24.

[Bellhorn04]

Casas's comments on his extension negotiations didn't bother me. He said what they offered wasn't anything "enticing". He then went on to acknowledge that he needed to become a better all-around player and so on, kind of explaining why the offer wasn't that high. He seems like a pretty open and honest type to me.

[Randy Red Sox]

Casas's comments on his extension negotiations didn't bother me. He said what they offered wasn't anything "enticing". He then went on to acknowledge that he needed to become a better all-around player and so on, kind of explaining why the offer wasn't that high. He seems like a pretty open and honest type to me.

 

or more likely he wasn't prepared to accept the team's "club friendly" offer

[notin]

Casas had an OPS+ of 137 in March-April/24.

 

I can dial back on his April struggles, but I still think Houck is a more urgent extension candidate…

[notin]

I can dial back on his April struggles, but I still think Houck is a more urgent extension candidate…

 

I want to say Crawford is as well. My wanting to extend him in March now might be too late, and a wait-and-see approach, rather than a massive deal based on 9 starts.

 

Not sure who is a higher extension priority - Casas or Crawford?

Edited May 19, 2024 by notin

[mvp 78]

But this is a poll started on May 18/24 and that's all the data there is.

 

This was meant to be a decision with the info we have today.

[mvp 78]

When we have limited data, the debate is about the logic of these two extensions and not the results.

 

I can see an argument that Rafaela was probably not the right candidate. Big extensions for players based on defense are rare, and the only other one that leaps to mind (Seattle’s Evan White) was a massive flop at a much lower cost.

 

Bello’s $9mill AAV is high leverage reliever/backend starter money. So it’s not a big deal if that’s actually the role he settles into IMO.

 

And now lock up Houck and Crawford. Casas is being difficult so let him wait and think about how much value injury-prone first basemen with limited defense really have. Even the ones who can hit in April…

PreARB 9M is vastly different than a guy hitting FA earning 9M.

[notin]

This was meant to be a decision with the info we have today.

 

I like the new philosophy more than these individual extensions…

[notin]

PreARB 9M is vastly different than a guy hitting FA earning 9M.

 

Yes. That kind of money for a free agent is often spent on a much older player whose best seasons are in the rear view mirror…

[cp176]

I haven't posted for awhile quite simply because there is very little about this team that excites me at all. I would say that anytime you have young pitching that is even adequate in this day and age maybe you should explore a longer term contract signing. Houck should have been locked up for some time now. Bello being locked up before a workhorse like Houck was silly in my estimation. I'd take a shot at Crawford as well. As for the extension to Rafaela, why? An excellent fielder for sure but what else really? Maybe some day just not to day.Oh yes and for the record, I would never have traded Sale for Grissom. Must be easier these days to find good pitching as opposed to second baseman (sarcasm). I should end this little rant by saying that if they try to lock up any of their young players now, maybe we should be happy that they are at least trying to do something as opposed to nothing.

[Hugh2]

Man, I like all those guys, but Crawfords delivery really scares me. He won't be a free agent until his age 33 season, I'm good with riding out his team control years.

[mvp 78]

I like the new philosophy more than these individual extensions…

 

I agree that I like the idea of extensions, but the merit of these two extensions are certainly up for debate.

[mvp 78]

Yes. That kind of money for a free agent is often spent on a much older player whose best seasons are in the rear view mirror…

 

Whereas allocating 9M on a preARB guy doesn't make a lot of sense if the guy isn't dominating because he should be pulling in 8M less. Where is the cost savings on these two contracts? Bello and Rafaela will have to turn it on considerably to outpace what they would have received in ARB and the first year or two in FA IMO.

[mvp 78]

I haven't posted for awhile quite simply because there is very little about this team that excites me at all. I would say that anytime you have young pitching that is even adequate in this day and age maybe you should explore a longer term contract signing. Houck should have been locked up for some time now. Bello being locked up before a workhorse like Houck was silly in my estimation. I'd take a shot at Crawford as well. As for the extension to Rafaela, why? An excellent fielder for sure but what else really? Maybe some day just not to day.Oh yes and for the record, I would never have traded Sale for Grissom. Must be easier these days to find good pitching as opposed to second baseman (sarcasm). I should end this little rant by saying that if they try to lock up any of their young players now, maybe we should be happy that they are at least trying to do something as opposed to nothing.

 

At SS: -3 DRS, -5 OAA

 

They are doing a disservice to him right now IMO. However, I was told that he was going to be able to figure out MLB pitching at some point because that's how it's been for him at every level. I just don't see it right now.

[mvp 78]

Man, I like all those guys, but Crawfords delivery really scares me. He won't be a free agent until his age 33 season, I'm good with riding out his team control years.

 

Considering all of the pitching injuries, unless the deal is below market or the guy is an absolute stud, I probably go year to year with pitchers too.

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

Ceddanne Rafaela leads the Red Sox with 25 RBI, most among MLB rookies.

 

With a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, he has driven in at least 1 run in 11 of 15 opportunities.

 

.417 AVG

1.083 SLG

16 RBI

 

2 home runs

2 doubles

1 single

3 sac flies

3 RBI groundouts/FC

[notin]

I agree that I like the idea of extensions, but the merit of these two extensions are certainly up for debate.

 

Bello - good.

 

Rafaela - probably a bit too early. Even if he takes over CF, there is a good chance he is Darren Lewis 2.0, but now he is one with a rather hefty contract...