2024 Prospects

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

If you think you need to trade Mayer now while his value is high because his injury risk depletes his value.  If there's any validity to that argument then his value is already down.  Other teams now what they're getting themselves into.  

I'd be lying if I was to say Im' not concerned with Mayers health, but I'm not super concerned either.  As of right now it seems to be more conditioning than any real big physical problems.  Could be due to never really spending time in a weight room.  If that hasn't changed.....it really needs to. 

It's that the value will keep trending further downward, not that his value is down now and can only go up from here. He is still considered a solid prospect, another team would take him in a second. 

[mvp 78]

Marcelo Mayer: “I fully expect to have a very normal offseason… You can be sure I’m going to work hard this offseason to come back stronger than ever next season.”

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

All-World OF: Anthony

Catcher: Teel

Second base: Campbell

Shortstop: ARIAS (MLB starter by the time Story's contract expires)

Trade ASAP before his value totally plummets to an org rife with pitching: Mayer...

... even if the return is a mere "Ceiling of mid-rotation starter" -- that would then give the entire current Red Sox farm system TWO arms of that status, along with Perales, according to recent prospect analysis.

This makes sense, too, but counting on Story to bridge us to Arias is a long stretch. If I was sure Campbell was ML ready by May 2024, I'd feel better about trading Mayer. I also think a package headlined by Anthony brings back a much better pitcher than Mayer would. I guess adding Abreu to a Mayer package would help, a lot, so maybe...

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure Mayer's latest injury hurt his value all that much, but it does likely matter.

I seriously doubt we trade a top 4 prospect, and the 5-8 prospects are too far away to be have enough value to get a great return.

IMO, a package starting with Mayer & Abreu or Anthony and DHam might get us what we really need. I do not want to part with very promising prospects and understand the risk involved, but we need pitching, and I don't trust JH to open his wallet for even one significant pitcher, let alone the 2-3 we need.

[jgar658]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure Mayer's latest injury hurt his value all that much, but it does likely matter.

I seriously doubt we trade a top 4 prospect, and the 5-8 prospects are too far away to be have enough value to get a great return.

IMO, a package starting with Mayer & Abreu or Anthony and DHam might get us what we really need. I do not want to part with very promising prospects and understand the risk involved, but we need pitching, and I don't trust JH to open his wallet for even one significant pitcher, let alone the 2-3 we need.

If everybody needs pitching why would any team out there part withy top of the line pitchers?  Unless they are the Sox who traded this expected Cy Young winner this season.

I rather spend money in a couple of no.2 starters and reinforce the bullpen.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, jgar658 said:

If everybody needs pitching why would any team out there part withy top of the line pitchers?  Unless they are the Sox who traded this expected Cy Young winner this season.

I rather spend money in a couple of no.2 starters and reinforce the bullpen.

It seems harder to find teams to part with younger pitchers with a ton of promise or even some success, already, but it does happen.

There are also teams that know they will never win in the next 3-4 years, so they will think trading a 3-4 year pitcher for 2-3 players with 5-6 years of control improves their team.

If Anthony becomes what many think he will, that team could make out well on such a trade.

There are also deals like the Luis Castillo one with a quick extension.

 

[jgar658]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It seems harder to find teams to part with younger pitchers with a ton of promise or even some success, already, but it does happen.

There are also teams that know they will never win in the next 3-4 years, so they will think trading a 3-4 year pitcher for 2-3 players with 5-6 years of control improves their team.

If Anthony becomes what many think he will, that team could make out well on such a trade.

There are also deals like the Luis Castillo one with a quick extension.

 

OK, got it.

The The Sox have many infielders that can be traded.   I would keep Abreu as he is in the outfield and may blossom into a real good one.  But, I still think the team has money to sign two free agent solid starters next year.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, jgar658 said:

OK, got it.

The The Sox have many infielders that can be traded.   I would keep Abreu as he is in the outfield and may blossom into a real good one.  But, I still think the team has money to sign two free agent solid starters next year.

They have enough money to add two solid SP'ers and a 3rd decent one, plus a good  closer and set-up man. I've given up hoping it happens and am trying to find a way we can build a winning team, assuming we don't spend big.

I'd love nothing more than to keep Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Campbell and others and build the staff up with free agent signings that actually work, plus maybe some spot trades of vets for decent starters and RP'ers.

We could trade Abreu, DHam, Wong and maybe others lesser prospects like Meidroth, Castro and Romero to fill some significant roles that we don't fill with 3-4 major signings. I just think the chances JH goes large, this winter are slim. I don't want to wait until 2026. I've waited too long, already.

We do have a lot of middle infielders that look decent- something we could not say, even as soon as May, but none have the trade value our OF'ers have, and if we trade Mayer, we are locked into needing Story staying healthy, again. I'm also not so sure DHam can repeat 2024, and his defense is scary. I don't want Rafaela at SS/2B. either. I feel more secure about Anthony, an Abreu-Ref platoon, Rafalea and Duran in the OF. Trading one will hardly be noticed, unless it's Duran.

[Larry Cook]

On 8/26/2024 at 9:43 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Do you have an old account you’d like me to retrieve for you?

I must have messed up my Larry cook account. So I created Larry cook v2 as a replacement 

[moonslav59]

Priester struggled, tonight, but Woo pulled it out 5-4.

Grissom 2-3 w BB

Valdez 2-4

Campbell 1-2 w 2BB (3 runs)

Anthony 1-3 w BB

Teel 1-4

After the purge, POR can't win, anymore.

Romero homered and Jh Garcia went 1-3. ICoffey let up 2 ER in 5IP.

GRE was 2 hit in their 2-0 loss. Wehunt went 5 IP allowing 1 ER, 1H, 2BB & 7Ks.

SAL won 7-2, as Cohen pitched well (5IP, 3H, 0ER, 2BB, 5K) Arias hit a 3-run jack, and his OPS is now up to .652 in A ball. Zanetello K'd 4 times. Alcantara had 3 hits.

The DSL Sox begin the championship series, tomorrow.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

We do have a lot of middle infielders that look decent- something we could not say, even as soon as May, but none have the trade value our OF'ers have, and if we trade Mayer, we are locked into needing Story staying healthy, again. I'm also not so sure DHam can repeat 2024, and his defense is scary. I don't want Rafaela at SS/2B. either. I feel more secure about Anthony, an Abreu-Ref platoon, Rafalea and Duran in the OF. Trading one will hardly be noticed, unless it's Duran.

Duran can be a wingnut, but continues to mature as a professional. In a competitive industry like sports, it's a given you have to be cocky to be good. But you also don't trade a star MLB position player who can impact every game for a starter who might pitch once a week.

Duran isn't Luis Arraez, the best contact hitter in baseball, who has been dealt twice the past two years. He's the first 10-20-30-40 (3B, HR, SB, 2B) player in history...

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I feel more secure about Anthony, an Abreu-Ref platoon, Rafalea and Duran in the OF. Trading one will hardly be noticed, unless it's Duran.

Anthony is almost at the point where he'll no longer be considered a prospect. That doesn't mean he'll only have one more month in Triple A or that he'll be the majors' next superstar, but he'll be a big league regular very soon -- and the Red Sox will have to and want to make room for him.

The Nationals recently called up outfielders James Wood and Dylan Crews, and both are thriving so far. Wood played 283 games in the minors, Crews 135 (after playing D1). Anthony's at 224 and counting...

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Anthony is almost at the point where he'll no longer be considered a prospect. That doesn't mean he'll only have one more month in Triple A or that he'll be the majors' next superstar, but he'll be a big league regular very soon -- and the Red Sox will have to and want to make room for him.

The Nationals recently called up outfielders James Wood and Dylan Crews, and both are thriving so far. Wood played 283 games in the minors, Crews 135 (after playing D1). Anthony's at 224 and counting...

Anthony is the reason I think we need to trade from the OF depth, not the IF depth. We may also see Campbell end up in the OF, and Jh Garcia is not very far away, either. Bleis may never make it, but maybe Cespedes ends up in the OF, too.

I'm okay with trading Abreu or Mayer, but Anthony will bring back better or more, and we have the OF set for the next 3+ years, already.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Duran can be a wingnut, but continues to mature as a professional. In a competitive industry like sports, it's a given you have to be cocky to be good. But you also don't trade a star MLB position player who can impact every game for a starter who might pitch once a week.

Duran isn't Luis Arraez, the best contact hitter in baseball, who has been dealt twice the past two years. He's the first 10-20-30-40 (3B, HR, SB, 2B) player in history...

 

I'm not for trading Duran, but I never bought the idea that you don't trade everyday players for pitchers.  We don't acquire or develop enough good pitching  and have a surplus of everyday players already bottlenecked.

Also, while an everyday player might get 650-710 PAs, a year, a SP'er who starts 33 games and goes deep in enough games can easily reach 750-850 PAs against, in a season. They are more valuable, especially come playoff time. There is a reason bookies set the odds based largely on who is on the mound.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Anthony is the reason I think we need to trade from the OF depth, not the IF depth. We may also see Campbell end up in the OF, and Jh Garcia is not very far away, either. Bleis may never make it, but maybe Cespedes ends up in the OF, too.

I'm okay with trading Abreu or Mayer, but Anthony will bring back better or more, and we have the OF set for the next 3+ years, already.

 

Would you rather be the GM that traded away Brandon Crawford or Aaron Judge? 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Would you rather be the GM that traded away Brandon Crawford or Aaron Judge? 

I fully realize the great risk associated with trading Anthony. I also think other GMs in MLB are drooling over this guy. 

We need pitching. Period.

We can dream of mega-bucks free agent signings, all day long. I'm all for that. I just don't think it will happen, anytime soon. Of course, I'd rather we sign Burnes and trade Abreu, DHam and Wink for a solid SP'er than trade Anthony, but until I see us make a signing like Burnes, I'm thinking this might be the best way to get an ace. Trading Mayer in a larger package needed than Anthony's makes some sense, too, but I hate relying on Story, DHam or moving Rafaela to middle IF on a more permanent basis.

Granted, an OF or Abreu/Ref in LF, Duran in CF and Anthony in RF looks sweet, but our defense will suffer at middle infield with Rafaela there.

I'd be fine with either one traded, but I know we better get this one right, or else ____ !

[mvp 78]

We have cheap prospects that can keep the offensive side of the payroll down for the foreseeable future. Use your spending clout on pitching FA and prospect surplus to acquire other arms. 

That's what I'd do. No way am I trading Anthony unless a young controllable TOTR arm can be had. Even then, the rest of the package would just be Sandlin and Fitts or whatever. 

 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We have cheap prospects that can keep the offensive side of the payroll down for the foreseeable future. Use your spending clout on pitching FA and prospect surplus to acquire other arms. 

That's what I'd do. No way am I trading Anthony unless a young controllable TOTR arm can be had. Even then, the rest of the package would just be Sandlin and Fitts or whatever. 

 

I'm not for trading Anthony for a two year stud, unless he is young and agrees to a reasonable extension.

My package might be Anthony, DHam, Wink and Wikelman.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No way am I trading Anthony unless a young controllable TOTR arm can be had. 

I don't think I'm even there, any more.

Here are two things that can no longer be included in the same sentence. Pitchers. Long-term health and production.

If Gammons came back from the future 2035 to tell me Anthony will win 10 Silver Sluggers, and Crochet and Skubal will each win a Cy Young AND a World Series, but only pitch for five years... I'm taking the position player.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If Gammons came back from the future 2035 to tell me Anthony will win 10 Silver Sluggers, and Crochet and Skubal will each win a Cy Young AND a World Series, but only pitch for five years... I'm taking the position player.

...and then no rings with Anthony.

1. We aren't winning without serious pitching upgrades.

2. It's 5-6 years of Anthony, not 10. If you assume an extension, then assume Skubal gets extended for 4-6 years, too.

3. Did we end up missing HRam? Moncada? Cespedes?

Our everyday pool of players and prospect depth is off-the-charts good. Those on the 26 and 40 man roster, already, are under team control for 3-9 years, as it is.  Then, we add Anthony, Teel, Mayer, Campbell, maybe Meidroth and not long after Jh Garcia and Arias followed by Cespedes, Bleis, Jo garcia and others.

We can't possibly play all these guys at once, and even if 2-3 turn into busts, we still have more than enough depth.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not for trading Anthony for a two year stud, unless he is young and agrees to a reasonable extension.

My package might be Anthony, DHam, Wink and Wikelman.

A young two year stud for Anthony 3 mediocre guys on the 40 man. If I'm the other GM, I'm hanging up. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I don't think I'm even there, any more.

Here are two things that can no longer be included in the same sentence. Pitchers. Long-term health and production.

If Gammons came back from the future 2035 to tell me Anthony will win 10 Silver Sluggers, and Crochet and Skubal will each win a Cy Young AND a World Series, but only pitch for five years... I'm taking the position player.

I'm not even sure I can think of a guy I'd make the trade for. I'm also not sure Henry has the wherewithal to extend whoever is traded for anyway. 

Hard to trust FO/ownership right now.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not even sure I can think of a guy I'd make the trade for. I'm also not sure Henry has the wherewithal to extend whoever is traded for anyway. 

Hard to trust FO/ownership right now.

2 years plus extension: Skubal & Crochet

3 years: Gilbert, Alcantara

4 years: Kirby, L Castillo

5+: Miller, Woo,  HGreene, T Bradley (likely not available)

It will not be easy getting any of these guys, and some are likely next to impossible to obtain, but maybe...

[mvp 78]

If his swing decisions are comparable to Meidroth (SSS), he's leapfrogged Mayer IMO. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

...and then no rings with Anthony.

1. We aren't winning without serious pitching upgrades.

I'm rational enough to know that every year only one team wins the last game of the season. And I'm ok if the Red Sox contend like they did for most of my life -- and not pretend, like they have the past half decade. 

I'm not some arrogant old Yankee fan who says the season is a total failure if they don't win it all. Kids born in the past 15 years don't even know what that means.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm rational enough to know that every year only one team wins the last game of the season. And I'm ok if the Red Sox contend like they did for most of my life -- and not pretend, like they have the past half decade. 

I'm not some arrogant old Yankee fan who says the season is a total failure if they don't win it all. Kids born in the past 15 years don't even know what that means.

I totally get this sentiment.

I think we can have a very exciting offense, without Anthony, and it will be more fun, and we can see more wins with vastly improved pitching.

I do not see JH using free agency to get the pitching where it needs to be to win during the regular season, too- not just the "last game played every year."

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm rational enough to know that every year only one team wins the last game of the season. And I'm ok if the Red Sox contend like they did for most of my life -- and not pretend, like they have the past half decade. 

I'm not some arrogant old Yankee fan who says the season is a total failure if they don't win it all. Kids born in the past 15 years don't even know what that means.

I think prime Red Sox contention era was 1998 - 2022. That's Pedro trade through Xander leaving. I will not dox my age at how much of my life that is. Not as much as it used to be!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I totally get this sentiment.

I think we can have a very exciting offense, without Anthony, and it will be more fun, and we can see more wins with vastly improved pitching.

I do not see JH using free agency to get the pitching where it needs to be to win during the regular season, too- not just the "last game played every year."

I get your point, too.

I've just always preferred star power on the pro sports teams I root for -- and everyone can pile on about how the Red Sox teams in the 70s and 80s and 90s always fell short, but probably around 75% of those clubs had a shot, while fans lived and died with their heroes, who were mostly around the next year to give it another go.

Winning it all is great, but probably not as much if its just cheering for jerseys with different faces poking out on teams that tear down and build back up a lot. Club owners should never take for granted how a fanbase  identifies with favorite players -- or underestimate the impact of that factor. 

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I get your point, too.

I've just always preferred star power on the pro sports teams I root for -- and everyone can pile on about how the Red Sox teams in the 70s and 80s and 90s always fell short, but probably around 75% of those clubs had a shot, while fans lived and died with their heroes, who were mostly around the next year to give it another go.

Winning it all is great, but probably not as much if its just cheering for jerseys with different faces poking out on teams that tear down and build back up a lot. Club owners should never take for granted how a fanbase  identifies with favorite players -- or underestimate the impact of that factor. 

Agreed, and many of the most beloved Sox players of the past 2 decades were obtained by trade or free agency: Pedro, Manny, Papi, Schilling (not so much now,) Lowell, VTek, JD and Sale.

I loved those teams of the mid to late 70's more than any others. Of course, I was a kid/teen, at the time, but they were fun to watch. When that team was torn apart, mercilessly, it was a giant gut punch

[mvp 78]

When Penrod is on, it's fun to watch.