2024 Prospects

[Hugh2]

Drops:

Wikelman 7 > below 10

Jordan 17>20ish

Hickey 19>22-25

Anderson 26>30ish

Hoppe 30>35-40

 

Rises:

Perales 8> 6 or 7

Slaten 12>10ish

Meidroth 13>11-12

E R-C 18>16-17

K Campbell 20>15ish

Mullins 40>32-34

Sogard 43>35ish

Benitez 44>35ish

Lugo 50>20-25

 

Benitez will fall.

 

Meidroth will not move up.

 

Not a prophet, soxprospects already denotes who will move up/down before the rankings come out. There’s up or down errors currently next to the movers on their list.

[moonslav59]

Benitez will fall.

 

Meidroth will not move up.

 

Not a prophet, soxprospects already denotes who will move up/down before the rankings come out. There’s up or down errors currently next to the movers on their list.

 

I never noticed those carrots.

 

Right on Benitez.

[moonslav59]

Benitez will fall.

 

Meidroth will not move up.

 

Not a prophet, soxprospects already denotes who will move up/down before the rankings come out. There’s up or down errors currently next to the movers on their list.

 

Meidroth may move up, only because Wikelman may fall below #13.

[moonslav59]

Woo won 13-4

Penrod walked 5.

Uwasawa & Guerrero shut em down.

Meidroth 2BB & 9th SB

Sogard 3-6 w HR

Lugo keeps blasting away (2-4 w HR, 2B & BB)

Yorke 3-5

 

POR lost 9-7 as WEbb let up 4 in the 9th.

3-5 Paulino w 2B

2-5 Anthony w 2B

1-4 w BB Teel

 

E R-C wnet 5 in a SAL loss (2H, 0ER, 2BB, 2K)

 

[mvp 78]

Benitez will fall.

 

Meidroth will not move up.

 

Not a prophet, soxprospects already denotes who will move up/down before the rankings come out. There’s up or down errors currently next to the movers on their list.

 

I didn't realize how horrible Troye had been pitching. Seems like Alcantara will never hit. Shame.

 

I never noticed the arrows before. Thank you for pointing them out.

[mvp 78]

SoxProspects update:

 

Graduated

Justin Slaten (12)

Cam Booser (42)

 

Debuts

Ovis Portes at 29

Jojo Ingrassia at 48

Bailey Horn at 49

Max Carlson at 53

Andruw Musett at 54

 

Notable Risers

Kristian Campbell from 20 to 10

Matthew Lugo from 50 to 13

Zach Penrod from 29 to 22

Connelly Early from 33 to 26

Hayden Mullins from 40 to 32

Nelly Taylor from 51 to 38

 

Notable Fallers

Wikelman Gonzalez from 7 to 14

Nathan Hickey from 19 to 27

Antonio Anderson from 26 to 37

Alex Hoppe from 30 to 41

Dalton Rogers from 37 to 47

Christopher Troye from 41 to 50

Mario Alcantara from 34 to 60

[sk7326]

Law's updated Top 50 in the Athletic: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5530418/2024/06/03/mlb-top-50-prospects-in-season-holliday/

 

4. Mayer (8 preseason)

 

Mayer is off to a solid start in Double A while playing strong defense at short. He’s still working on some of his offspeed recognition while he’s crushing fastballs, with whiff rates on sliders, curves, and changeups all 42 percent or higher in the early going. I don’t think he’s on the fast track to Boston, given his age and all the injury issues he’s had the last two years, but any concerns after his tepid 2023 season should be over now.

 

19. Teel (54 preseason)

 

Teel looked tired when I saw him at the end of last summer, and in hindsight, I think that’s exactly what was going on, as he’s a new man this year, hitting .309/.411/.503 with improved defense so far in Double A. I don’t think he’s far off at all, and if Connor Wong reverts to his pre-2024 form, Teel might be ready to replace him.

 

25. Anthony (22 preseason)

 

Anthony is young for Double A, but he has had some trouble at the level with a 29 percent strikeout rate, coming from some unsurprising sources — he’s struggling with same-side breaking stuff, even in the zone, and is chasing a lot of changeups and fastballs from righties. These are small samples, but I do think it’s fair to say that this is going to be a long stay at the level as Anthony works on pitch and location recognition in general.

[mvp 78]

So much for his anti-BOS bias.

[mvp 78]

I'm surprised, but not surprised the SoxProspect faves Sandlin and Castro didn't fall a little in the latest ranking. I think they are both a little too high.

 

I'd put Sandlin at 13 after Lugo and Castro at 16 after Rodriguez.

[Hugh2]

Holy crap, I was half joking when I saw Lugo was maybe the 10th guy, but he almost jumped all the way up there. He has legit big league exit velocities; they obviously really believe in the bat.

 

There's obviously something they really like about Castro, would love to hear more about it

[moonslav59]

Perales to #4 is a big vote of confidence, although jumping Bleis & Cespedes is not all that shocking. This does bring me back to a point I made earlier about how maybe our system's lack of acquiring and developing young pitchers was maybe not quite as bad as we thought it was. (Not saying all is well, now.)

 

Houck

Crawford

Bello

acquisitions like Whitlock, Slaten, Wink, Fitts, Kelly, Sandlin and non-prospects like Pivetta, Criswell & Bernardino.

 

Of course, Perales has proved nothing, however, it's nice to see three pitchers in the top 9: Perales 4, Fitts 7 & Sandlin 9.

 

Most recent 3 in top 9's:

 

Summer '23: 6 Drohan, 7 Perales, 9 Wikelman (none in top 5)

Summer '22: 5 Walter, 6 Mata, 9 Wink (none in top 4)

 

Whitlock was our last pitcher ranked #4 (Spring of '21 as a Rule 5 pick)

4. Whitlock

5. Houck

7. Seabold

8. TWard

9. Aldo Ramirez (traded for Schwarber that summer)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Kristian Campbell from 22 to 10 was a bigger jump that I expected, but when you look at those from 11-15, nobody jumps out as being a better pick.

 

Meidroth's rise from 14 to 11 was more about Slaten graduating and Yorke falling than Campbell jumping him and others.

 

I'm thinking E R-C will pass Wikelman, this fall.

 

Castro and Paulino did not deserve rising, even if mostly by attrition, but there aren't many below them, besides Lugo & Campbell that deserved to jump up to top 15.

 

Jordan's drop was expected, (Below 20 would have been understandable, too.)

 

I'm hoping Jh Garcia gets to the top 20 or 25 by the fall.

[mvp 78]

Holy crap, I was half joking when I saw Lugo was maybe the 10th guy, but he almost jumped all the way up there. He has legit big league exit velocities; they obviously really believe in the bat.

 

There's obviously something they really like about Castro, would love to hear more about it

 

The Lugo jump is crazy. He's having a good year, but c'mon. He's OF only now. I wonder what the metrics are pointing to?

[moonslav59]

The Lugo jump is crazy. He's having a good year, but c'mon. He's OF only now. I wonder what the metrics are pointing to?

 

I think it is more about how unimpressive those he jumped over are.

[mvp 78]

Perales to #4 is a big vote of confidence, although jumping Bleis & Cespedes is not all that shocking. This does bring me back to a point I made earlier about how maybe our system's lack of acquiring and developing young pitchers was maybe not quite as bad as we thought it was. (Not saying all is well, now.)

 

Houck

Crawford

Bello

acquisitions like Whitlock, Slaten, Wink, Fitts, Kelly, Sandlin and non-prospects like Pivetta, Criswell & Bernardino.

 

Of course, Perales has proved nothing, however, it's nice to see three pitchers in the top 9: Perales 4, Fitts 7 & Sandlin 9.

 

Most recent 3 in top 9's:

 

Summer '23: 6 Drohan, 7 Perales, 9 Wikelman (none in top 5)

Summer '22: 5 Walter, 6 Mata, 9 Wink (none in top 4)

 

Whitlock was our last pitcher ranked #4 (Spring of '21 as a Rule 5 pick)

4. Whitlock

5. Houck

7. Seabold

8. TWard

9. Aldo Ramirez (traded for Schwarber that summer)

 

 

 

 

Perales is deserving of the 4 spot IMO. He's dominated this year. Bleis has been just fine, but hasn't really had the performance that pops out at you. Cespedes doesn't seem to have a position yet.

[moonslav59]

Perales is deserving of the 4 spot IMO. He's dominated this year. Bleis has been just fine, but hasn't really had the performance that pops out at you. Cespedes doesn't seem to have a position yet.

 

Agreed.

 

I still have hopes in Bleis & Cespedes, but Perales has shined.

[mvp 78]

I think it is more about how unimpressive those he jumped over are.

 

Well, I think there just isn't a real big difference between a lot of these guys. The rankings are really squishy as guys can move up and down. I think once you get to the top 10 or so, it's a little more solid. I don't think the difference between Arias at 21 and Jhostynxon at 33 isn't really anything at all. It's a judgement call.

 

Also, he was probably pushed to low last season. They held onto Jimenez as a top guy for too long. I think they overcorrected with Lugo by pushing him out of the top 60.

[Hugh2]

The Lugo jump is crazy. He's having a good year, but c'mon. He's OF only now. I wonder what the metrics are pointing to?

 

His Exit velocities are very impressive. He really impacts the baseball, I wonder if he can play RF. He wasn't horrible in the infield so I'm not sure why they don't see if he can play mutliple positions unless they really just view him as an everyday regular out in the outfield.

 

They must really believe in the bat.

[mvp 78]

Kristian Campbell from 22 to 10 was a bigger jump that I expected, but when you look at those from 11-15, nobody jumps out as being a better pick.

 

Meidroth's rise from 14 to 11 was more about Slaten graduating and Yorke falling than Campbell jumping him and others.

 

I'm thinking E R-C will pass Wikelman, this fall.

 

Castro and Paulino did not deserve rising, even if mostly by attrition, but there aren't many below them, besides Lugo & Campbell that deserved to jump up to top 15.

 

Jordan's drop was expected, (Below 20 would have been understandable, too.)

 

I'm hoping Jh Garcia gets to the top 20 or 25 by the fall.

 

Campbell completely deserves it. He's been great and his position diversity will allow him a quicker track to the bigs.

 

I agree about Meidroth.

 

ERnoC may pass Wikelman next month.

 

Jordan and Yorke falling is just sad for that draft class.

[mvp 78]

His Exit velocities are very impressive. He really impacts the baseball, I wonder if he can play RF. He wasn't horrible in the infield so I'm not sure why they don't see if he can play mutliple positions unless they really just view him as an everyday regular out in the outfield.

 

They must really believe in the bat.

 

Field: After spending most of his career at shortstop, moved to third base in August 2022 in what appears to be a full-time transition off of short, or close to it. Was inconsistent defensively at shortstop. Would flash soft hands and fluid actions in the field, but also would also miss a routine play. At third base, he shows average range, but is a little stiff and upright in the field. Looks more comfortable at third base than shortstop. Bad decision-making also leads to errors on plays where he would be better suited to just hold the ball. Potential average defender at third base.

 

He was still 21 when they transitioned him off SS. Maybe they just saw the writing on the wall with Mayer, Paulino and others in the system and wanted to relieve the logjam? They haven't really mentioned his OF defense. The next podcast should be interesting.

[moonslav59]

Field: After spending most of his career at shortstop, moved to third base in August 2022 in what appears to be a full-time transition off of short, or close to it. Was inconsistent defensively at shortstop. Would flash soft hands and fluid actions in the field, but also would also miss a routine play. At third base, he shows average range, but is a little stiff and upright in the field. Looks more comfortable at third base than shortstop. Bad decision-making also leads to errors on plays where he would be better suited to just hold the ball. Potential average defender at third base.

 

He was still 21 when they transitioned him off SS. Maybe they just saw the writing on the wall with Mayer, Paulino and others in the system and wanted to relieve the logjam? They haven't really mentioned his OF defense. The next podcast should be interesting.

 

They really liked Lugo, a while back, but then soured, perhaps too quickly. Maybe his massive fall in the rankings was a bigger WOW than this massive jump. They must have saw something to rank him #14 at the end of 2022. He's basically back to where they had him, before his stumble in '23 at AA.

 

He did do pretty badly in 2023, so it's not like it was all undeserving, but 50th?

[Hugh2]

They really liked Lugo, a while back, but then soured, perhaps too quickly. Maybe his massive fall in the rankings was a bigger WOW than this massive jump. They must have saw something to rank him #14 at the end of 2022. He's basically back to where they had him, before his stumble in '23 at AA.

 

He did do pretty badly in 2023, so it's not like it was all undeserving, but 50th?

 

No one can predict a human beings future with precision, it shouldn't be surprised that even the best predictors of player performance are off the mark sometimes.

[moonslav59]

 

Jordan and Yorke falling is just sad for that draft class.

 

That was a stinker, and soxprospects.com missed on all of them.

 

17 pick Yorke: ranked 3rd in fall '21 and spring '22 (17th now)

89th Jordan: ranked 7th in fall of '21 & 10th spring '22 (19th now)

118th Wu-Yelland: 3 IP in '24

148th Drohan: ranked 6th in summer of '23 (gone from system)

[moonslav59]

No one can predict a human beings future with precision, it shouldn't be surprised that even the best predictors of player performance are off the mark sometimes.

 

Indeed. This is not rocket science, and players make jumps and falls, often at unpredictable times in their development.

 

It's expected to have some big misses.

 

I think soxpropsects does a very good job with most of their rankings and projections. When you read the summations, they are often hyperconservative.

[mvp 78]

No one can predict a human beings future with precision, it shouldn't be surprised that even the best predictors of player performance are off the mark sometimes.

 

I just think they should go a bit slower with some of their jumps and that maybe it didn't make sense to have him unranked at the end of last season.

[sk7326]

The Lugo jump is crazy. He's having a good year, but c'mon. He's OF only now. I wonder what the metrics are pointing to?

 

Given that he is a good athlete, if the bat allows him to project as a regular corner, then that's a solid prospect.

[sk7326]

His Exit velocities are very impressive. He really impacts the baseball, I wonder if he can play RF. He wasn't horrible in the infield so I'm not sure why they don't see if he can play mutliple positions unless they really just view him as an everyday regular out in the outfield.

 

They must really believe in the bat.

 

This is why the team likes drafting shortstops.

[sk7326]

With Perales and Gonzalez the challenge has been finding a repeatable delivery so you can actually have command-control etc. Perales has stopped walking people. Wikelman has not.

 

Bleis just has to be healthy. I am excited about him, Cespedes and Zannatello. But they are all just so young and so far away from the bigs that the range of outcomes is still super wide. It is easy to act like not being at Portland by 22 is some sort of death sentence or something.

[moonslav59]

I just think they should go a bit slower with some of their jumps and that maybe it didn't make sense to have him unranked at the end of last season.

 

They seem to not drop some guys as much as others, for some reason. Lugo had just one bad year after rising to #14.

 

Guys like Castro, Paulino and Jordan seem to drop more slowly.

[moonslav59]

With Perales and Gonzalez the challenge has been finding a repeatable delivery so you can actually have command-control etc. Perales has stopped walking people. Wikelman has not.

 

Bleis just has to be healthy. I am excited about him, Cespedes and Zannatello. But they are all just so young and so far away from the bigs that the range of outcomes is still super wide. It is easy to act like not being at Portland by 22 is some sort of death sentence or something.

 

Great points.

 

Speaking of age 22...

 

Sox top prospects by ages:

 

18: Cespedes 6, Arias 21

19: Zanetello 8, Jo Garcia 18

20: Anthony 1, Bleis 5 (missed time), E R-C 16

21: Mayer 2, Perales 4, K Campbell 10, Castor 12, Paulino 14

22: Teel 3, Meidroth 11, Lugo 13, Wikelman 15, Yorke 17

23: Sandlin 9

24: Fitts 7

 

Looks like a pretty good mix.

 

RED= ML Ready or should be by 2025.