2024 Prospects

[mvp 78]

Soxprospects comes out with their updated top 60 soon probably any hour now. Some predictions.

 

I think there's a small chance Mayer and Anthony flip positions and same thing with Cespedes/Bleis, but the top 5 is the same guys, I think Perales jumps over Wikelman and Fitts.

 

Kristian Campbell, Matthew Lugo, and Zach Penrod I think are all slated to take big jumps forward on the rankings too. I think Jordan and Yorke start to fall.

 

Still not out yet.

 

I would say:

 

no change to top 3

Perales to 6

Meidroth is 11

Campbell is 12

Yorke is 13

Elmer to 14

Antonio Anderson into the 30s

Penrod to 21

Early to 25

Jhostynxon and Wehunt into the 20s

Lugo to #30

[Hugh2]

Still not out yet.

 

I would say:

 

no change to top 3

Perales to 6

Meidroth is 11

Campbell is 12

Yorke is 13

Elmer to 14

Antonio Anderson into the 30s

Penrod to 21

Early to 25

Jhostynxon and Wehunt into the 20s

Lugo to #30

 

 

This is pretty much my prediction, I think it's more probable that Anthony stays at #1, I think it's obvious from statements Soxprospects have made + how impressed they've been with Perales that he's moving to #6.

 

I would have moved Campbell as high as #9-10 but Chris Hatfield dropped a little easter egg in a chat forum yesterday effectively saying he's not top ten, so I really believe he has to be in the 11-12 range.

 

Pure guess here, but I don't think they're that high on Meidroth. But I've heard the word "complete chaos" being thrown around after the top 8. So I feel that has to mean a few new guys entering the top 10???? and if not Campbell then who?!?!?!?!?

[Hugh2]

My biggest guess for biggest surprise, might be Lugo moving back up more than anyone thinks. Don't get me wrong if I'm a guessing man I'd be hedgin my bets at him being around 25 (little higher than yours) but if they truly believe in the bat, and if the power increase is real then maybe they truly believe in his elevated ceiling. Maybe he's the surprise wildcard.

[mvp 78]

My biggest guess for biggest surprise, might be Lugo moving back up more than anyone thinks. Don't get me wrong if I'm a guessing man I'd be hedgin my bets at him being around 25 (little higher than yours) but if they truly believe in the bat, and if the power increase is real then maybe they truly believe in his elevated ceiling. Maybe he's the surprise wildcard.

 

I think 25 is probably a little high for Lugo. The way I look at the standings is would I trade #25 for #26? Lugo is really a LF only glove now, which really hurts his profile and was repeating a level after struggling mightily for a full year. I don't think they'd push him really really hard. I think being cheeky and putting him at 31 is fine for now.

[mvp 78]

This is pretty much my prediction, I think it's more probable that Anthony stays at #1, I think it's obvious from statements Soxprospects have made + how impressed they've been with Perales that he's moving to #6.

 

I would have moved Campbell as high as #9-10 but Chris Hatfield dropped a little easter egg in a chat forum yesterday effectively saying he's not top ten, so I really believe he has to be in the 11-12 range.

 

Pure guess here, but I don't think they're that high on Meidroth. But I've heard the word "complete chaos" being thrown around after the top 8. So I feel that has to mean a few new guys entering the top 10???? and if not Campbell then who?!?!?!?!?

 

I know they've been down on Meidroth ever since he's been drafted but the Sox have him playing all over the field and he's still getting on base. I think he's going to get a shot to be a UTIL guy at some point. I don't know if the bat will play with the extreme lack of power, but we'll see.

[mvp 78]

Oh and today is Opening Day for the DSL. We did it! We made it all the way there!

[Hugh2]

I think 25 is probably a little high for Lugo. The way I look at the standings is would I trade #25 for #26? Lugo is really a LF only glove now, which really hurts his profile and was repeating a level after struggling mightily for a full year. I don't think they'd push him really really hard. I think being cheeky and putting him at 31 is fine for now.

 

You're probably right, it all comes down to how much they believe in his bat. Which if they do, I can see the argument for taking him over Guerrero/Anderson. One being a pure relief profile and the other far away who hasn't shown anything really at the pro level yet.

 

I know Lugo has been playing a lot of LF, but he wasn't horrible at SS, just not great. Typically guys with his profile move to 3B/2B first and Soxprospects had him pegged as a guy who could be an average defender at 3B, if the bat returns I wonder if they would ever consider him playing multiple positions in a utility role to possibly increase his value. If you believe in the bat I just don't see a slam dunk argument for any guy ahead of him in the 25-30 range other than Pendrod, who almost certainly will be moving higher.

[mvp 78]

Anderson has been awful. I know they still like him, but if he was drafted a few years ago, he'd be working out and waiting for Lowell to start.

 

Lugo was a 50/50 split between 3B/LF last season. He's now completely entrenched in LF. With all the injuries, there'll be room for him to play anywhere in WOO.

[moonslav59]

I think 25 is probably a little high for Lugo. The way I look at the standings is would I trade #25 for #26? Lugo is really a LF only glove now, which really hurts his profile and was repeating a level after struggling mightily for a full year. I don't think they'd push him really really hard. I think being cheeky and putting him at 31 is fine for now.

 

Lugo has really yo-yo'd on sp's.

 

He was 12th, last April, then out of the top 30 by summer.

 

He was 12th in summer of '20, then out of the top 20 by DEC '21.

[moonslav59]

I think Perales jumps Wikelman (who falls to 11th) but not Fitts.

Slaten jumps Wikelman to #10.

 

I think...

Meidroth jumps Yorke to #12.

K Campbell to #17.

Arias to #20.

Penrod to #26 as Anderson drops to #30.

Jh Garcia to #27, replacing Hoppe in the top 30.

Lugo from #50 to maybe #30 or 31. (Maybe Bastardo to #31.)

[mvp 78]

Lugo has really yo-yo'd on sp's.

 

He was 12th, last April, then out of the top 30 by summer.

 

He was 12th in summer of '20, then out of the top 20 by DEC '21.

 

19 - 663 OPS

COVID

21 - 702 OPS

22 - 830 OPS (GRE)

23 - 678 OPS

24 - 1069 OPS

 

It's not too surprising he yo-yo'd. He was a high pick when the farm sucked, so he started off high. They gave him the benefit of the doubt for a few years as he was signed young, but through 2021, he hadn't done much. He bounced back with a decent year in 22. He started 22 at 29th, but was pushed up to 15th midseason and stayed there for awhile. He dropped back down once he showed that he couldn't hit in 23 and was completely moved off of SS, which really hurt his profile. I think he bounces back again, but not to the teens quite yet because the system is much better now and the defense is no longer there. He would really have to rake to be higher than 20 and show it in AAA. I think him getting anywhere higher than 25 is a huge win.

[moonslav59]

19 - 663 OPS

COVID

21 - 702 OPS

22 - 830 OPS (GRE)

23 - 678 OPS

24 - 1069 OPS

 

It's not too surprising he yo-yo'd. He was a high pick when the farm sucked, so he started off high. They gave him the benefit of the doubt for a few years as he was signed young, but through 2021, he hadn't done much. He bounced back with a decent year in 22. He started 22 at 29th, but was pushed up to 15th midseason and stayed there for awhile. He dropped back down once he showed that he couldn't hit in 23 and was completely moved off of SS, which really hurt his profile. I think he bounces back again, but not to the teens quite yet because the system is much better now and the defense is no longer there. He would really have to rake to be higher than 20 and show it in AAA. I think him getting anywhere higher than 25 is a huge win.

 

No, the yo-yo is not surprising. You are correct.

 

I will say, soxprospects.com does not usually yo-yo players as much as Lugo.

 

Yorke is one example:

2021: .913 A-/.978 A+

2022: .668 A+

2023: .950 AA

 

Rankings:

13th at end of '20

10>8>3 in '21

3>4>5 in '22

6>5>6 in '23

11th to start '24

 

[mvp 78]

I think they sometimes jump on a hype train too quickly.

 

Drohan in '23 (6 was too high IMO, 28 prior July)

Seabold in '22

Jimenez in '20

Flores in '19

[moonslav59]

I think they sometimes jump on a hype train too quickly.

 

Drohan in '23 (6 was too high IMO, 28 prior July)

Seabold in '22

Jimenez in '20

Flores in '19

 

Sometimes, it's the first placement, after a draft or trade, but yes.

 

I do not think they do it, a lot. Sometimes they seem very restrained.

 

Betts was in the system 2.5 years without being top 10, then jumped to #1 in the summer of '14. Granted, he was in the low minors.

[Hugh2]

I think Perales jumps Wikelman (who falls to 11th) but not Fitts.

Slaten jumps Wikelman to #10.

 

I think...

Meidroth jumps Yorke to #12.

K Campbell to #17.

Arias to #20.

Penrod to #26 as Anderson drops to #30.

Jh Garcia to #27, replacing Hoppe in the top 30.

Lugo from #50 to maybe #30 or 31. (Maybe Bastardo to #31.)

 

I may have misinterpreted the guys over at sox prosepcts but I got the feeling they were saying that there's a clear second tier between Perales/Fitts/Wikelman in the 6-8 range. So I don't think he's dropping but who knows maybe Zanetello is replacing him in that tier, but I don't think so. WHen they really like guys they don't get sour on them that quickly, his numbers aren't great but I think it's another month or two of underperformance before he starts dropping.

 

We will see by the end of the week.

[Hugh2]

I think they sometimes jump on a hype train too quickly.

 

Drohan in '23 (6 was too high IMO, 28 prior July)

Seabold in '22

Jimenez in '20

Flores in '19

 

I think there are times they jump too quickly, but I think theres a lot of times they correctly jump on or off a guy correctly before almost anyone else does. It helps that they only focus on one system unlike everyone else who have to focus on....well everyone else.

[Hugh2]

I think they sometimes jump on a hype train too quickly.

 

Drohan in '23 (6 was too high IMO, 28 prior July)

Seabold in '22

Jimenez in '20

Flores in '19

 

Are we talking about Daniel Flores here? He passed away, they've been pretty spot on with their International Binkies......we will never know but certainly the rest of that list is worthy of too much hype.

[moonslav59]

I think there are times they jump too quickly, but I think theres a lot of times they correctly jump on or off a guy correctly before almost anyone else does. It helps that they only focus on one system unlike everyone else who have to focus on....well everyone else.

 

I think they do a fine job.

 

Their reports often say some of our top prospects might be utility players or borderline 5th starters, so high rankings do not always mean they overvalue someone.

[moonslav59]

I think they sometimes jump on a hype train too quickly.

 

Drohan in '23 (6 was too high IMO, 28 prior July)

Seabold in '22

Jimenez in '20

Flores in '19

 

They stuck with Jimenez, too long.

 

We don't know if they overvalued Flores.

[moonslav59]

Not a prediction, but here is my top 25:

1. Anthony

2. Mayer (close call)

3. Teel

4. Cespedes

5. Bleis

6. Fitts

7. Perales

8. Zanetello

9. Slaten

10. Sandlin

11. Meidroth

12. Yorke

13. K Campbell

14. E R-C

15. Wikelman

16. Jo Garcia

17. Paulino

18. Jordan

19. Arias

20. Jh Garcia

21. Penrod

22. Castro

23. Romero

24. Dobbins

25. Monegro/Wehunt/Hickey

 

[Larry Cook]

Lugo has really yo-yo'd on sp's.

 

He was 12th, last April, then out of the top 30 by summer.

 

He was 12th in summer of '20, then out of the top 20 by DEC '21.

 

Did lugo get promoted today ???

I think Campbell did as well?????

[moonslav59]

Did lugo get promoted today ???

I think Campbell did as well?????

 

Yes. MVP posted the news.

[mvp 78]

Wehunt was also promoted to GRE

[mvp 78]

Latest SoxProspect podcast downplayed promotions to AAA for Teel/Mayer/Anthony.

 

Teel: don't want to get rid of the MLB depth guys just yet though Teel is ready

 

Mayer: hasn't shown he can hit LHP, also a lot of MLB depth guys in the IF in AAA

 

Anthony: probably won't be ready for MLB early on in 2025 so no reason to rush him to AAA

[moonslav59]

Teel named league PLayer of the Week.

[mvp 78]

A guy from Baseball America is hinting that Perales may debut as a Top 100 prospect when they release the updated rankings tomorrow.

[moonslav59]

DSL rosters are set. Scroll to the very bottom...

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/org.htm

[moonslav59]

Just Baseball updated their Top 100:

 

12. Anthony

26. Mayer

33. Teel

90. Cespedes

 

The Athletic's Top 50:

4. Mayer

19. Teel

25. Anthony

 

MLB.com (May)

11. Mayer

16. Anthony

29. Teel

 

If you average them all, we have 3 in the top 30.

14. Mayer

18. Anthony

27. Teel

 

In some ways, it sucks having to pin almost all our hopes un unproven rookies, but this sure beats how we looked in 2020 to 2022, in terms or long term outlook.

 

Even if 2 or 3 work out fine, we might still need a significant boost in spending to reach glory again.

 

[mvp 78]

Cespedes at 90? His defense is pretty raw from what I've heard so that's kind of a surprise to me. Edited June 5, 2024 by mvp 78

[mvp 78]

@EdHand89

Portland Sea Dogs shortstop Marcelo Mayer currently leads the Eastern League (AA) in hits (60), extra-base hits (26), doubles (20), and runs scored (43). He's also fourth in AVG (.305), sixth in SLG (.484), and eighth in OPS (.861) and stolen bases (11).