2024 Prospects

[mvp 78]

Where do you find exit velocities for minor leaguers?

 

Also, can someone make solid contact, a lot, as in hardly ever hitting the ball weakly and making solid contact more than the norm, but not hit the ball as hard as everyone else?

 

I've often wondered about this.

 

Another semi-related issue is when people use BAbip to determine if a batter has been "lucky" or "unlucky." Sometimes, I look at their hard hit % of Line drive% and see that it is higher than previous years, so I wonder how much of it is luck, or if they are just hitting the ball harder, so more are falling for hits.

 

Statcast has exit velos on AAA games and some other MiLB games now.

[moonslav59]

They look at max exit velocity, 90% exit velocity, barrel percentage, average exit velocity.

 

He's a small dude, he doesn't impact the ball well.

 

That doesn't mean he won't be a useful big leaguer, he's just never going to be great. He's not first division starter quality.

 

Okay, thanks.

 

Here is my point in further detail.

 

Let's say the 90% exit percentile is used. That means when a player hits the ball, he hits is X% hard, but does that account for how often he makes contact and puts the ball in play?

 

Here is a comp:

 

Player A hits the ball 40% of the time and has a high max velocity and 90% velocity.

 

Player B hits the ball in play 50% of the time, has a lower max velocity and hits many of the balls at 80-89%.

 

Which one will have better overall numbers?

 

Am I missing something? (Admittedly, I'm not well versed on these things.)

[Hugh2]

Statcast has exit velos on AAA games and some other MiLB games now.

 

Oh they just started that this year didn't they? still I can't find the information online, maybe they're just posting it if you're watching milb.tv????

[Hugh2]

Okay, thanks.

 

Here is my point in further detail.

 

Let's say the 90% exit percentile is used. That means when a player hits the ball, he hits is X% hard, but does that account for how often he makes contact and puts the ball in play?

 

Here is a comp:

 

Player A hits the ball 40% of the time and has a high max velocity and 90% velocity.

 

Player B hits the ball in play 50% of the time, has a lower max velocity and hits many of the balls at 80-89%.

 

Which one will have better overall numbers?

 

Am I missing something? (Admittedly, I'm not well versed on these things.)

 

Meidroth isn't hitting the ball hard, if a player is hitting the ball harder the majority of the time (regardless of how hard he can hit it compared to other guys) he's average exit velocity rises. Meidroth apparently has low average exit velocities.

[mvp 78]

Oh they just started that this year didn't they? still I can't find the information online, maybe they're just posting it if you're watching milb.tv????

 

There is private data that Statcast doesn't give out that SoxProspects has, but you can also go to the individual game feeds to see exit velos and such for any park that has the right equipment.

[mvp 78]

Okay, thanks.

 

Here is my point in further detail.

 

Let's say the 90% exit percentile is used. That means when a player hits the ball, he hits is X% hard, but does that account for how often he makes contact and puts the ball in play?

 

Here is a comp:

 

Player A hits the ball 40% of the time and has a high max velocity and 90% velocity.

 

Player B hits the ball in play 50% of the time, has a lower max velocity and hits many of the balls at 80-89%.

 

Which one will have better overall numbers?

 

Am I missing something? (Admittedly, I'm not well versed on these things.)

 

He makes a lot of contact, but it's weaker than average contact.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Meidroth isn't hitting the ball hard, if a player is hitting the ball harder the majority of the time (regardless of how hard he can hit it compared to other guys) he's average exit velocity rises. Meidroth apparently has low average exit velocities.

 

Are a batter's spray charts correlated to his exit velos?

 

For example, if a batter takes an offspeed pitch that breaks outside to the opposite field, he may be just trying to make contact (and not swing for the fences) -- which I never call "a good piece of hitting" because it's exactly what professional hitters should strive to do... unlike the guy who hits it as hard as he can and rolls over, which is what the pitcher wants him to do (besides try to pull it, pull his head, and miss it by a foot-and-a-half).

 

To me, a good piece of hitting is a rising line drive up the middle that clears the centerfield fence.

[mvp 78]

Meidroth isn't hitting the ball hard, if a player is hitting the ball harder the majority of the time (regardless of how hard he can hit it compared to other guys) he's average exit velocity rises. Meidroth apparently has low average exit velocities.

 

And he has a good bat to ball skillset. However, it is just unknown if he can thread that needle in MLB. It is very rare for someone with his profile to succeed at the highest level. If he had more speed and a better glove, I think there'd be a lot more excitement around him. He's a smart player and he seems to be getting as much as he can out of himself, but there's always an unknown ceiling. The worry is that more advanced pitchers will just challenge him over and over again knowing that he won't be able to punish anything in the zone. Why walk him if at most he can do is get a bloop single?

[moonslav59]

Meidroth isn't hitting the ball hard, if a player is hitting the ball harder the majority of the time (regardless of how hard he can hit it compared to other guys) he's average exit velocity rises. Meidroth apparently has low average exit velocities.

 

Ok, thanks for the clarification. I think I had a wrong understanding of "90%."

[Hugh2]

Are a batter's spray charts correlated to his exit velos?

 

For example, if a batter takes an offspeed pitch that breaks outside to the opposite field, he may be just trying to make contact (and not swing for the fences) -- which I never call "a good piece of hitting" because it's exactly what professional hitters should strive to do... unlike the guy who hits it as hard as he can and rolls over, which is what the pitcher wants him to do (besides try to pull it, pull his head, and miss it by a foot-and-a-half).

 

To me, a good piece of hitting is a rising line drive up the middle that clears the centerfield fence.

 

That's a good question, I'm not exactly an expert on this stuff as well.

 

What I do know is that exit velocity data over the last few years has been a very good predictor of success. It's why they called Duran up last year even though the stat line didn't look great down in WOO and he lit the world on fire his first month, it's why they promoted Roman Anthony from Low A even though his numbers weren't great at all. The Statcast data showed those guys were hammering the ball and just getting unlukcy, and they got moved up and proved it.

[Hugh2]

Ok, thanks for the clarification. I think I had a wrong understanding of "90%."

 

I don't even see where 90% is compiled to be honest but I've heard it used before. There's a lot of data that is being used now that isn't exactly public.

[Hugh2]

And he has a good bat to ball skillset. However, it is just unknown if he can thread that needle in MLB. It is very rare for someone with his profile to succeed at the highest level. If he had more speed and a better glove, I think there'd be a lot more excitement around him. He's a smart player and he seems to be getting as much as he can out of himself, but there's always an unknown ceiling. The worry is that more advanced pitchers will just challenge him over and over again knowing that he won't be able to punish anything in the zone. Why walk him if at most he can do is get a bloop single?

 

That's the thing about him, he doesn't have those other ancilliary tools like speed, defense, arm etc etc. If he did he might be a MLB caliber player

[moonslav59]

He makes a lot of contact, but it's weaker than average contact.

 

Ok, so he may get some more hits, despite his weaker exit velo, because he makes more contact, but he gets less hits, because they are no hit hard.

 

Maybe that makes him break even on BA, but will be low on SLG%.

 

Perhaps his walk rate is what might save him, if he can transfer that skill to the bigs. (That might not be likely, since pitchers will not be afraid of throwing strikes, know he cannot burn them with a homer or rocket 2B/3B.

 

Got it.

[mvp 78]

Are a batter's spray charts correlated to his exit velos?

 

For example, if a batter takes an offspeed pitch that breaks outside to the opposite field, he may be just trying to make contact (and not swing for the fences) -- which I never call "a good piece of hitting" because it's exactly what professional hitters should strive to do... unlike the guy who hits it as hard as he can and rolls over, which is what the pitcher wants him to do (besides try to pull it, pull his head, and miss it by a foot-and-a-half).

 

To me, a good piece of hitting is a rising line drive up the middle that clears the centerfield fence.

 

Sometimes. For example, Blaze Jordan really struggles with velo and has to put the ball the other way. He can't get his full swing on it which reduces the exit velo. If he gets something in the low 90's, he can pull it with authority for 400+.

[mvp 78]

That's a good question, I'm not exactly an expert on this stuff as well.

 

What I do know is that exit velocity data over the last few years has been a very good predictor of success. It's why they called Duran up last year even though the stat line didn't look great down in WOO and he lit the world on fire his first month, it's why they promoted Roman Anthony from Low A even though his numbers weren't great at all. The Statcast data showed those guys were hammering the ball and just getting unlukcy, and they got moved up and proved it.

 

I've heard that may be the case with Bleis in Salem right now as well. 245 BABIP for an athletic guy like him is very unlucky.

[mvp 78]

I don't even see where 90% is compiled to be honest but I've heard it used before. There's a lot of data that is being used now that isn't exactly public.

 

Statcast compiles is and sells it to teams I believe.

[mvp 78]

That's the thing about him, he doesn't have those other ancilliary tools like speed, defense, arm etc etc. If he did he might be a MLB caliber player

 

The other stuff is definitely averagish. It's good enough to get by with a carrying tool. I'm not sure about speed though. May be slightly below average?

[moonslav59]

The other stuff is definitely averagish. It's good enough to get by with a carrying tool. I'm not sure about speed though. May be slightly below average?

 

soxprospects.com says this... (They rank him 14th)

 

Hit: Starts slightly open with his hands high. Very brief leg lift and short stride. Simple swing mechanics. Short swing that is fluid and direct to the ball. Keeps the barrel in the zone a long time. Makes a lot of contact and has an advanced approach with solid pitch recognition. Works counts, does not miss a lot of pitches in the zone, and does not swing at bad pitches. Has had some struggles against advanced breaking balls and against velocity up in the zone. Potential average hit tool.

Power: Below-average power potential. Not a major part of his game. Swing is designed for line drives in the gap. Produces fringy exit velocities that do not lend to considerable over-the-fence power.

 

Run: Below-average speed. Solid instincts, but not the most fluid runner. Has the type of body that could cause him to get slower as he matures.

 

Field: Soft hands, fluid actions. Average range, comfortable charging the ball. Profiles best at second base at higher levels, but has seen some time at third base and shortstop.

 

Arm: Fringe-average arm strength. Profiles best at second base long-term, but could pass at third base in a pinch.

[Hugh2]

The other stuff is definitely averagish. It's good enough to get by with a carrying tool. I'm not sure about speed though. May be slightly below average?

 

 

He's definitely a big leaguer in some capactiy, I just don't think he's an impactful player.

 

I don't know about his speed but this is what his soxprospects.com scouting report says.

 

Run: Below-average speed. Solid instincts, but not the most fluid runner. Has the type of body that could cause him to get slower as he matures.

[Hugh2]

ughhh, I literally could of just scrolled down two inches.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Has the type of body that could cause him to get slower as he matures.[/font][/color]

 

Is this a scouting report on a talksox poster?

 

Or does this refer to an adolescent who becomes more deliberate, once he stops goofing off?

 

On the other hand, does anyone -- even an athlete -- actually get faster when he grows old?

[moonslav59]

Woo beat the snot out of the Iron Pigs. They had 13 hits and 5 walks. Simas homered.

Meidroth 1-3 w 2BB

Kavadas 2-4 w two 2Bs

Fitts 6IP 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2BB & 7 Ks.

Gutierrez did not do too well (3H and 5 BB in 3 IP)

 

POR won 9-3

Penrod went 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2BB, 7 K

Mayer 1-5 w 2B

Anthony 0-4 w BB

Teel 1-4 w 2 RBI

Paulino 2-4 w 3 RBI

Jordan 1-3 w 2BB

 

GRE won 12-7

The 1-2-3 slot Cs all homered:

1-3 Coffey

2-5 Campbell w BB

2-4 Castro w 2B

Rosario & Ugueto each had 3 hits

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Woo beat the snot out of the Iron Pigs. They had 13 hits and 5 walks. Simas homered.

Meidroth 1-3 w 2BB

Kavadas 2-4 w two 2Bs

Fitts 6IP 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2BB & 7 Ks.

Gutierrez did not do too well (3H and 5 BB in 3 IP)

 

POR won 9-3

Penrod went 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2BB, 7 K

Mayer 1-5 w 2B

Anthony 0-4 w BB

Teel 1-4 w 2 RBI

Paulino 2-4 w 3 RBI

Jordan 1-3 w 2BB

 

GRE won 12-7

The 1-2-3 slot Cs all homered:

1-3 Coffey

2-5 Campbell w BB

2-4 Castro w 2B

Rosario & Ugueto each had 3 hits

 

 

 

Greenville and Salem gave up a lot of unearned runs tonight

[mvp 78]

Woo beat the snot out of the Iron Pigs. They had 13 hits and 5 walks. Simas homered.

Meidroth 1-3 w 2BB

Kavadas 2-4 w two 2Bs

Fitts 6IP 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2BB & 7 Ks.

Gutierrez did not do too well (3H and 5 BB in 3 IP)

 

POR won 9-3

Penrod went 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2BB, 7 K

Mayer 1-5 w 2B

Anthony 0-4 w BB

Teel 1-4 w 2 RBI

Paulino 2-4 w 3 RBI

Jordan 1-3 w 2BB

 

GRE won 12-7

The 1-2-3 slot Cs all homered:

1-3 Coffey

2-5 Campbell w BB

2-4 Castro w 2B

Rosario & Ugueto each had 3 hits

 

 

 

Watched a little bit of the Penrod start. He throws straight gas, but loses his control very quickly. Reminded me of Red Sox era Andrew Miller.

[moonslav59]

Watched a little bit of the Penrod start. He throws straight gas, but loses his control very quickly. Reminded me of Red Sox era Andrew Miller.

 

Maybe he can harness it, like A Miller ended up doing.

[mvp 78]

Maybe he can harness it, like A Miller ended up doing.

 

The first step would probably be conversion to the pen.

[moonslav59]

The first step would probably be conversion to the pen.

 

Agreed.

 

I understand why teams leave the starter option open as long as possible, but I think we go too far, at times- maybe because our system has been so devoid of good SP'ers for far too long, butis see many of our minor league starters as future RP'ers.

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

I understand why teams leave the starter option open as long as possible, but I think we go too far, at times- maybe because our system has been so devoid of good SP'ers for far too long, butis see many of our minor league starters as future RP'ers.

 

Having a power lefty like Penrod would be an absolute weapon for one inning. He could fly through the system IMO.

[mvp 78]

Kristian Campbell tater alert. Second day in a row.

[Larry Cook]

Kristian Campbell tater alert. Second day in a row.

 

I saw the video of the hbp he took to the head! Amazing he is playing!!!! Very scary hit