2024 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Only 22 pitchers threw 70+ games last year.

 

Winckowski - 60

Martin - 55

Bernardino - 55

Jansen - 51

 

Whitlock pitched in 46 in '21. I'm sure he could throw consistently in the 50's.

 

Having 13 pitchers on the staff has changed things....

 

Most IP from the pen in 2023:

84.1 Gird & Holton

83.1 Wink 4th most since 2019

20 pitchers over 70 IP

53 over 65 IP

83 over 60 IP

 

From 2010-2018

118.2 Yarbrough '18

96 Swarzak '13

95 Chavez '16

11 pitchers over 90

49 over 80265 over 70

762 over 60

 

2000-2009

6 over 100

38 over 90

173 over 80

508 over 70

929 over 60

 

90-99

34 over 100

102 over 90

254 over 80

490 over 70

785 over 60

 

80-89 (Bob Stanley pitched 168.1 IP as a RP'er in '82) 32 pitched over 120 IP!

143 over 100

274 over 90

421 over 80

591 over 70

763 over 60

70-79 (Mike Marshall pitched 208 and 179 IP from the pen) 20 pitchers over 140!

158 over 100

258 over 90

373 over 80

518 over 70

662 over 60

 

We hear a lot about SP'er IP going way down- so have RP'er IP.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects slotted Sandlin at #13- right behind Fitts and Zanetello and in front of Meidroth and Castro.

 

Already, Brez has added these pitching prospects to the roster. (Campbell & Weissert have graduated, recently.)

 

Brez in RED

 

7. Perales

9. Wikelman

11. Fitts

13. Sandlin

21. Monegro

24. Dobbins

25. Slaten

...

59. Judice

[mvp 78]

soxprospects slotted Sandlin at #13- right behind Fitts and Zanetello and in front of Meidroth and Castro.

 

Already, Brez has added these pitching prospects to the roster. (Campbell & Weissert have graduated, recently.)

 

Brez in RED

 

7. Perales

9. Wikelman

11. Fitts

13. Sandlin

21. Monegro

24. Dobbins

25. Slaten

...

59. Judice

 

Looks fine to me. Sandlin could have helium depending on how he performs early, probably more so than Fitts.

[moonslav59]

Looks fine to me. Sandlin could have helium depending on how he performs early, probably more so than Fitts.

 

I'd say it looks pretty good, that without even having a draft yet, he has 2 of the top 4 and 3 of the top 7 sox pitching prospects as his.

 

Granted, we inherited crap.

[sk7326]

I'd say it looks pretty good, that without even having a draft yet, he has 2 of the top 4 and 3 of the top 7 sox pitching prospects as his.

 

Granted, we inherited crap.

 

Yeah. I think Law put Sandlin in at #11 on the Sox prospects list ... the #1 pitcher in the system, and the only one with (as of this second) a reasonably likely path to being a starter.

[sk7326]

soxprospects slotted Sandlin at #13- right behind Fitts and Zanetello and in front of Meidroth and Castro.

 

Already, Brez has added these pitching prospects to the roster. (Campbell & Weissert have graduated, recently.)

 

Brez in RED

 

7. Perales

9. Wikelman

11. Fitts

13. Sandlin

21. Monegro

24. Dobbins

25. Slaten

...

59. Judice

 

The real task for Breslow is how to get the "best case" outcomes for Perales and Wikelman.

[moonslav59]

The real task for Breslow is how to get the "best case" outcomes for Perales and Wikelman.

 

I hope he and new set of people can give both a lift.

 

Perales turns only 21 in April, and has been in the system for 4 seasons, due to missing 2020. He doesn't even have 150 IP, total, yet, but we were forced to add him to the 40.

 

Wikelman turns 22 in March and has 5 seasons in our system, also missing 2020. He barely has over 300 IP, total.

 

These two still have a few years to develop, but they are fast losing their chance as starters. They need to show something, soon.

 

Fitts just turned 24, and apparently lacks a third pitch. I guess it's not too late to find one, but he seems destined for the pen.

 

Sandlin turned 23, today! He apparently has 3 plus pitches. sxoprospects.com says he has " ...at least average with an above-average command and control profile. Stuff appears to have ticked up during winter workouts heading into the 2024 season but it remains to be seen if he can hold those gains into regular season action. If the improvements with his fastball that he showed in the offseason hold, projection could change. Exciting arm with considerable upside if things click." He might be the guy with the highest upside of the top 3.

 

Monegro is 21 and might be a pen arm, at best. Stepped up some in '23, and there might be hope he can again in '24.

 

Slaten is 26 and is a pen arm.

Dobbins is 24 and has 3 secondary pitches, so maybe some hope there.

E R-C is the youngest of the top 25 or so. He has a 4 pitch mix with 3 upside pitches.

 

I'm not seeing a lot of hope, but it's good to see Brez & Co. trying to add to the mix. Adding 3 in the top 7 pitching prospects before your first draft does show a commitment. (It took a while longer for Bloom to add Whitlock & Winckowski.)

 

 

[moonslav59]

I'm not going to pretend the Sox can match teams like ATL, BAL, LAD, HOU & others, in terms of the strength of prospects and recent grads, but we have a pretty nice list of players under 27 or so...

 

17 Asencio

18 Cespedes, Zanetello, Anderson, Arias

19 Anthony, Joh Garcia, Brannon, Yuten, E Soto

20 Perales, Castro, Romero, E R-C, Paez, Ravelo

21 Mayer, Wikelman, Yorke, Paulino, Jordan, Monegro, K Campbell, C Early

22 Teel, Meidroth, Bastardo, Sena, Reimer

23 Grissom, Rafaela, Guerrero

24 Bello, Casas, Abreu, Hickey, Mata, Dobbins

25 Winckowski, Murphy, E Valdez, Hoppe

26 Campbell, Slaten, DHam

27 Devers, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Duran, Wong, Criswell, Walter

 

The 23 in Red look pretty good.

 

[Larry Cook]

Does Grissom’s arrival make yorke trade bait!

[moonslav59]

Does Grissom’s arrival make yorke trade bait!

 

I'd say for sure. I'm not sure what his trade value is, but if we could get a good SP'er with 4+ yrs of control for Duran, Yorke and Mata, I'd do it.

[mvp 78]

The real task for Breslow is how to get the "best case" outcomes for Perales and Wikelman.

 

Perales right now is a two pitch pitcher.

 

Wikelman suffers from inconsistency from start to start, but has multiple secondary pitches.

 

Adding velo won't fix either problem or going to Driveline won't fix either.

[mvp 78]

Does Grissom’s arrival make yorke trade bait!

 

Was probably trade bait even before.

[mvp 78]

@tylermilliken_

According to @BGlobeSports, Nick Yorke is going to work on outfield drills during spring training to increase his versatility.

 

Bounced back in 2023 with a .268/.360/.435/.785 slash line in 110 games. 13 HR, 25 doubles. 116 wRC+.

 

Needed with Mayer/Story.

[moonslav59]

Perales right now is a two pitch pitcher.

 

Wikelman suffers from inconsistency from start to start, but has multiple secondary pitches.

 

Adding velo won't fix either problem or going to Driveline won't fix either.

 

What would you say the odds are that just ONE of these two becomes a decent 3/4 SP in MLB?

 

I'm guessing less than 50%. Maybe 50% just ONE becomes a decent #5.

 

Second Q, do we have anyone ranked 31-60 that looks anywhere near promising?

 

[sk7326]

Perales right now is a two pitch pitcher.

 

Wikelman suffers from inconsistency from start to start, but has multiple secondary pitches.

 

Adding velo won't fix either problem or going to Driveline won't fix either.

 

Right. But can Wikelman just get his motion fixed so he knows where the ball is going (at least more often). Can Perales find enough consistency even with just two pitches to be a twice through the order guy. Again, the probabilties of both are low - but Breslow's job is to organizationally figure out how to help convert those probabilities.

[mvp 78]

What would you say the odds are that just ONE of these two becomes a decent 3/4 SP in MLB?

 

I'm guessing less than 50%. Maybe 50% just ONE becomes a decent #5.

 

Second Q, do we have anyone ranked 31-60 that looks anywhere near promising?

 

 

To be a 3/4? Like 20% that one of them turns into that. Probably 50% that one can stick as a 5th starter or so. I think the risk has been there with those two that they are bullpen arms due to their control issues.

 

If I had to wager a guess as the most likely outcome:

 

Perales is a decent reliever, but not a shutdown late inning guy.

 

Wikelman hangs onto a 5th starter/bulk relief role due to pitch mix.

[moonslav59]

Right. But can Wikelman just get his motion fixed so he knows where the ball is going (at least more often). Can Perales find enough consistency even with just two pitches to be a twice through the order guy. Again, the probabilties of both are low - but Breslow's job is to organizationally figure out how to help convert those probabilities.

 

First, Perales has to have a full & healthy season- maybe 120+ IP. We may never know his true potential, until he does. His highest ranking has been #7.

 

It's like he's our next Mata.

 

Wikelman just seems like he's another in a long line of hyped pitching prospects that fizzled out or got hurt. I hope I'm wrong, but nobody says he has electric stuff. He needs everything to go right to maybe become a decent #3. That would be nice, but we need some 1's and 2's. His highest ranking on sp's is his current 9 slot.

 

We've seen so many pitchers ranked higher than #7 and #9, in the last decade become total flops or get injured. Here are but a few, with their highest sp's rankings, ever:

1. Groome '18

2. DHern '19, H Owens '14

3. Espinoza '17

4. A Webster '14

5. Walter '22, B Johnson '15

6. Shawaryn '18

8. Scherff '18, Raudes '16

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

To be a 3/4? Like 20% that one of them turns into that. Probably 50% that one can stick as a 5th starter or so. I think the risk has been there with those two that they are bullpen arms due to their control issues.

 

If I had to wager a guess as the most likely outcome:

 

Perales is a decent reliever, but not a shutdown late inning guy.

 

Wikelman hangs onto a 5th starter/bulk relief role due to pitch mix.

 

Thanks.

 

Any significant hopes for lower ranked pitching prospects?

[mvp 78]

Right. But can Wikelman just get his motion fixed so he knows where the ball is going (at least more often). Can Perales find enough consistency even with just two pitches to be a twice through the order guy. Again, the probabilties of both are low - but Breslow's job is to organizationally figure out how to help convert those probabilities.

 

Wikelman's 2023:

 

Greenville:

Bad April - 15.58 ERA, 3.00 WHIP

Good May - 2.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Very Good June - 2.42 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

July - one very bad start

 

Promotion to Portland:

July - 1.59 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Aug - 4.15 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, largely due to one bad start at Binghamton 2.2 Inn, 4 ER

Sept - 1.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

 

He had a really good season after turning the page on April. TalkSox mentioned on the recent podcast that he was struggling with sleep early on in '23 and they worked with him to fix the issue.

[mvp 78]

Thanks.

 

Any significant hopes for lower ranked pitching prospects?

 

Hard to comment on Fitts or Sandlin since I haven't really followed them. Reports are that Fitts is only a two pitch guy right now and needs great control to work out. Sandlin has really good stuff, but is just far away so we haven't seen him face advanced hitters yet. This year should be a bigger tell for Sandlin.

 

I think Early has the prototypical starter's build out: frame, left handed, velo, projection, pitch mix. He's ranked fairly low now, but he's someone that could rise in the rankings and become a 4th starter just by being competent at what he does.

 

Paez and Monegro both need their stuff to pop a little for them to stay in the rotation. Monegro is a little more exciting now, but people are probably sleeping on Paez.

 

Ian Cundall really likes Hunter Dobbins. He has multiple offspeed pitches. Can pitch deeper into the game than Wikelman at times. 1.10 bb/9 in AA last year.

[moonslav59]

Hard to comment on Fitts or Sandlin since I haven't really followed them. Reports are that Fitts is only a two pitch guy right now and needs great control to work out. Sandlin has really good stuff, but is just far away so we haven't seen him face advanced hitters yet. This year should be a bigger tell for Sandlin.

 

I think Early has the prototypical starter's build out: frame, left handed, velo, projection, pitch mix. He's ranked fairly low now, but he's someone that could rise in the rankings and become a 4th starter just by being competent at what he does.

 

Paez and Monegro both need their stuff to pop a little for them to stay in the rotation. Monegro is a little more exciting now, but people are probably sleeping on Paez.

 

Ian Cundall really likes Hunter Dobbins. He has multiple offspeed pitches. Can pitch deeper into the game than Wikelman at times. 1.10 bb/9 in AA last year.

 

Here is what sp's has for summaries on these you listed:

 

Fitts Potential multi-inning depth reliever. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Has some traits you look for in a starting pitching prospect, but effort in delivery and lack of a third pitch hint at the bullpen being the most likely outcome. Stuff improved as the 2023 season went on and could be a candidate to take a step forward with new development staff, as he was tweaking his secondary pitches throughout 2023. Needs to find a consistent third pitch and continue to refine his slider to have a chance to stick in the rotation. Has a starter's fastball with the command and control to work deep into games.

 

Sandlin High-variance prospect with starter upside. Will show three pitches that are at least average with an above-average command and control profile. Stuff appears to have ticked up during winter workouts heading into the 2024 season but it remains to be seen if he can hold those gains into regular season action. If the improvements with his fastball that he showed in the offseason hold, projection could change. Exciting arm with considerable upside if things click.

 

Monegro Potential up-and-down, multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. High variance arm who is still learning to pitch. Still very projectable and has already added velocity, even within the season. Could gain even more velocity given how loose his arm is and the remaining projection in his frame. Stuff took a significant step forward in 2023, making him a much more interesting prospect. Needs to show more consistency and improve command and control as he moves up the ladder. Fastball quality could stand to improve, as could creating separation between his two breaking balls. Has dabbled with a changeup in the past and adding something like that or a splitter could give him a better chance to stick in the starting rotation. Pitches with emotion and swagger.

 

Dobbins Potential emergency up-and-down starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter. One of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Red Sox low minors, but has a wide gap between what he currently is and what he could be. Already shows an intriguing three-pitch mix with advanced feel and command for his age. Stuff at present is on the light side, but has already started to tick up. If stuff continues to tick up, projection could change.

 

Paez Potential emergency up-and-down starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter. One of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Red Sox low minors, but has a wide gap between what he currently is and what he could be. Already shows an intriguing three-pitch mix with advanced feel and command for his age. Stuff at present is on the light side, but has already started to tick up. If stuff continues to tick up, projection could change.

 

Early Durable left-hander with four pitches and a solid command and control profile. Advanced pitchability. If stuff takes a step forward, could develop into an interesting arm. If stuff stays as is, still has a relatively high floor with his feel and ability to locate all of his pitches and change speeds.

[Larry Cook]

Here is what sp's has for summaries on these you listed:

 

Fitts Potential multi-inning depth reliever. Ceiling of a back-end starter. Has some traits you look for in a starting pitching prospect, but effort in delivery and lack of a third pitch hint at the bullpen being the most likely outcome. Stuff improved as the 2023 season went on and could be a candidate to take a step forward with new development staff, as he was tweaking his secondary pitches throughout 2023. Needs to find a consistent third pitch and continue to refine his slider to have a chance to stick in the rotation. Has a starter's fastball with the command and control to work deep into games.

 

Sandlin High-variance prospect with starter upside. Will show three pitches that are at least average with an above-average command and control profile. Stuff appears to have ticked up during winter workouts heading into the 2024 season but it remains to be seen if he can hold those gains into regular season action. If the improvements with his fastball that he showed in the offseason hold, projection could change. Exciting arm with considerable upside if things click.

 

Monegro Potential up-and-down, multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter. High variance arm who is still learning to pitch. Still very projectable and has already added velocity, even within the season. Could gain even more velocity given how loose his arm is and the remaining projection in his frame. Stuff took a significant step forward in 2023, making him a much more interesting prospect. Needs to show more consistency and improve command and control as he moves up the ladder. Fastball quality could stand to improve, as could creating separation between his two breaking balls. Has dabbled with a changeup in the past and adding something like that or a splitter could give him a better chance to stick in the starting rotation. Pitches with emotion and swagger.

 

Dobbins Potential emergency up-and-down starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter. One of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Red Sox low minors, but has a wide gap between what he currently is and what he could be. Already shows an intriguing three-pitch mix with advanced feel and command for his age. Stuff at present is on the light side, but has already started to tick up. If stuff continues to tick up, projection could change.

 

Paez Potential emergency up-and-down starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter. One of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Red Sox low minors, but has a wide gap between what he currently is and what he could be. Already shows an intriguing three-pitch mix with advanced feel and command for his age. Stuff at present is on the light side, but has already started to tick up. If stuff continues to tick up, projection could change.

 

Early Durable left-hander with four pitches and a solid command and control profile. Advanced pitchability. If stuff takes a step forward, could develop into an interesting arm. If stuff stays as is, still has a relatively high floor with his feel and ability to locate all of his pitches and change speeds.

 

Please do not read the above after a hearty lunch! Brutal!!!!!

[moonslav59]

Please do not read the above after a hearty lunch! Brutal!!!!!

 

sp's always seems brutal in their write-ups, and they seem to have eased off ranking pitchers in the top 2, since DHern in 2019.

 

We have to keep in mind, that sometimes things click for some guys, and they become totally different pitchers. Usually, for us, it's a click to the downside, but look at guys like these and their highest rankings on soxprospects.com:

 

I pointed out the busts, but here are some that did okay or well...

 

3. Bello (was not ranked in '2021, went to #5 in APR '22 and #3 JULY '22.)

3. Houck in '17-'18, shortly after being drafted in the 1st round, but then dropped to #7-10 for a couple years before his call-up. I'm not sure anyone expected him to do all that well.

9. Wink JULY '22 (was not ranked after the trade, then was around 14-15, before jumping to #12 and #9 in '22)

16. Crawford was drafted in 2017 and never cracked the top 20 until he hit #16 in APR '22. Now, he may be our 3rd best SP'er.

[Larry Cook]

Anybody have any guess as to why so many of our top hitting prospects bat left handed?

[moonslav59]

Anybody have any guess as to why so many of our top hitting prospects bat left handed?

 

They were better than the RH'd choices, when selected.

[mvp 78]

Anybody have any guess as to why so many of our top hitting prospects bat left handed?

 

If someone else drafted Mayer, they would have likely taken Jordan Lawlar who is a switch hitter that absolutely punishes LHP.

[sk7326]

Anybody have any guess as to why so many of our top hitting prospects bat left handed?

 

coincidence

[sk7326]

Wikelman's 2023:

 

Greenville:

Bad April - 15.58 ERA, 3.00 WHIP

Good May - 2.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Very Good June - 2.42 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

July - one very bad start

 

Promotion to Portland:

July - 1.59 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Aug - 4.15 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, largely due to one bad start at Binghamton 2.2 Inn, 4 ER

Sept - 1.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

 

He had a really good season after turning the page on April. TalkSox mentioned on the recent podcast that he was struggling with sleep early on in '23 and they worked with him to fix the issue.

 

There is plenty of evidence they should keep developing him as a starter.

[mvp 78]

https://beyondthemonster.substack.com/p/pitching-prospect-alex-hoppe-will

 

Hoppe has all the tools to become a bright star and a fan favorite. He's not the most well-known prospect, which will add some intrigue for the fans. Not knowing much about the player means the fans' first impression of Hoppe will be a 6'1", 200 lb man with a military-grade weapon for an arm.

 

The right-handed reliever possesses a fastball in the high 90s that reaches 100 MPH. His slider is devastating (if not inconsistent). When he has control of it, the sharp-sweeping pitch (in the mid-80s) is a perfect compliment to his fastball.

 

Hoppe posted a 4.10 ERA, .271 BAA, and 1.43 WHIP in 43 appearances between High-A and Double-A last season. The now 25-year-old struck out 64 batters compared to 17 walks in 48 1/3 innings. He went 2-5 with six holds and five saves (in eight opportunities).

 

The strikeouts are fun, but I don't blame you if the other numbers aren't blowing you away.

 

In three outings (April 25, August 5, and August 27), Hoppe allowed a combined 12 earned runs on 13 hits and two walks over two total innings. He surrendered just 10 earned runs in the other 46 1/3 innings.

 

Take out those three outings, and for the rest of the season, Hoppe posted a 1.94 ERA and a 1.165 WHIP.

[Larry Cook]

https://beyondthemonster.substack.com/p/pitching-prospect-alex-hoppe-will

 

Hoppe has all the tools to become a bright star and a fan favorite. He's not the most well-known prospect, which will add some intrigue for the fans. Not knowing much about the player means the fans' first impression of Hoppe will be a 6'1", 200 lb man with a military-grade weapon for an arm.

 

The right-handed reliever possesses a fastball in the high 90s that reaches 100 MPH. His slider is devastating (if not inconsistent). When he has control of it, the sharp-sweeping pitch (in the mid-80s) is a perfect compliment to his fastball.

 

Hoppe posted a 4.10 ERA, .271 BAA, and 1.43 WHIP in 43 appearances between High-A and Double-A last season. The now 25-year-old struck out 64 batters compared to 17 walks in 48 1/3 innings. He went 2-5 with six holds and five saves (in eight opportunities).

 

The strikeouts are fun, but I don't blame you if the other numbers aren't blowing you away.

 

In three outings (April 25, August 5, and August 27), Hoppe allowed a combined 12 earned runs on 13 hits and two walks over two total innings. He surrendered just 10 earned runs in the other 46 1/3 innings.

 

Take out those three outings, and for the rest of the season, Hoppe posted a 1.94 ERA and a 1.165 WHIP.

 

I think he is one of the hardest throwers in the system. If not the hardest. When he has command, he is awesome. When his slider is not working, opponents can time his fastball. The fastball stays on one plane.

 

When the fastball is not working, he gets lit up like a Christmas tree