Which FA Starter Who Has Been Signed Would You have Wanted for the Sox?

[moonslav59]

Yamamoto $325M/12

A Nola $172M/7

E Rod $80M/4

S Gray $75M/3

S Lugo $45M/3

Giolito $38.5M/2

Wacha $32M/2

Mahle $22M/2

Montas $14M/1

Flaherty $14M/1

None of the above

 

I tried to post a poll, but I could not get it to work.

[moonslav59]

My choices:

 

I'd have paid Yamamoto what he got with LA and Nola with PHI, but I doubt they'd have come here at equal cost, so I'm not listing them. (Yamamoto would be my #1 choice and Nola would maybe be my #4- after ERod and before Lugo.)

Yes

1. Gray $25M x 3

2. ERod $20M x 4

3. Lugo $15M x 3

Maybe

4. Giolito $19.25M x 2

5. Wacha $16M x 2

6. Montas $14M x 1

[Tedballgame]

All of them.

[notin]

Gray

[Duran Is The Man]

My choices:

 

I'd have paid Yamamoto what he got with LA and Nola with PHI, but I doubt they'd have come here at equal cost, so I'm not listing them. (Yamamoto would be my #1 choice and Nola would maybe be my #4- after ERod and before Lugo.)

Yes

1. Gray $25M x 3

2. ERod $20M x 4

3. Lugo $15M x 3

Maybe

4. Giolito $19.25M x 2

5. Wacha $16M x 2

6. Montas $14M x 1

 

any of them but Giolito and Montas. the Sox should have signed Gray instead of wasting their money on Giolito. he throws a lot of innings but f*** he gives up a lot of runs.

[moonslav59]

any of them but Giolito and Montas. the Sox should have signed Gray instead of wasting their money on Giolito. he throws a lot of innings but f*** he gives up a lot of runs.

 

I guess the pro-Giolito people point to 2019 through 2021, his nice first half of 2023 and his age of 29 as major factors in his support.

 

I'm not so sure his last 2 years are an outlier.

 

Let's hope we finally get one of the reclamation projects to work for us. $19.25M x 2 is a lot of money for a high risk pitcher, but he does take the b all every 5th day, which has real value.

 

(Wacha and Hill kinda worked.)

 

[moonslav59]

All of them.

 

LOL. Which one or two would you have wanted, if only 1 or 2?

[Bellhorn04]

Yamamoto

Nola

E Rod

Gray

Lugo

Wacha

 

Best buy: Gray

[mvp 78]

I tried to post a poll, but I could not get it to work.

 

Skill issue.

 

Yamamoto.

[moonslav59]

Yamamoto

Nola

E Rod

Gray

Lugo

Wacha

 

Best buy: Gray

 

I like this list.

 

If the budget is rigid, Gray is #1, although ERod's AAV is lower.

[Dipre]

I like this list.

 

If the budget is rigid, Gray is #1, although ERod's AAV is lower.

 

I liked Yamamoto and Gray. I liked Giolito as a bounce-back candidate but I'm iffy on the Sox' pitching program.

[notin]

All of them.

 

Montas?

 

I wouldn’t mind him as a bounce back candidate. But he’s beyond unreliable.

[mvp 78]

Montas?

 

I wouldn’t mind him as a bounce back candidate. But he’s beyond unreliable.

 

He signed for 1x16 (includes 2M buyout) coming off shoulder surgery. His velo will probably be down, but it's not a bad risk for a one year deal.

[moonslav59]

He signed for 1x16 (includes 2M buyout) coming off shoulder surgery. His velo will probably be down, but it's not a bad risk for a one year deal.

 

I'm just fed up with these high risk signings. It might be nice, if we got one right, every now and again.

 

It's weird how the two that did okay (Wacha and Hill) made less than Richards, Kluber and Giolito and about the same or less than Martin Perez I & II.

[mvp 78]

I'm just fed up with these high risk signings. It might be nice, if we got one right, every now and again.

 

It's weird how the two that did okay (Wacha and Hill) made less than Richards, Kluber and Giolito and about the same or less than Martin Perez I & II.

 

Well, the real high risk signings are the high dollar/long term ones. Wacha/Hill/Richards aren't high risk as the the deals were short and the amounts were relatively meager.

[moonslav59]

Well, the real high risk signings are the high dollar/long term ones. Wacha/Hill/Richards aren't high risk as the the deals were short and the amounts were relatively meager.

 

True.

 

It was still weird how the lower contract signings that looked like reclamation projects did better than the two $10M guys and Martin Perex I & II.

[mvp 78]

True.

 

It was still weird how the lower contract signings that looked like reclamation projects did better than the two $10M guys and Martin Perex I & II.

 

Are you referring to Wacha and Hill?

 

Hill '21 1.7 fWAR

Hill '22 1.8 fWAR

 

Wacha '21 1.1 fWAR

Wacha '22 1.5 fWAR

 

They didn't really do THAT much better than what they had done the previous year if they were "reclamation projects."

[moonslav59]

Are you referring to Wacha and Hill?

 

Hill '21 1.7 fWAR

Hill '22 1.8 fWAR

 

Wacha '21 1.1 fWAR

Wacha '22 1.5 fWAR

 

They didn't really do THAT much better than what they had done the previous year if they were "reclamation projects."

 

No, they did better than Richards, Kluber and Perez I & II, as stated twice.

[mvp 78]

No, they did better than Richards, Kluber and Perez I & II, as stated twice.

 

You think Hill and Wacha looked like reclamation projects though?

[notin]

He signed for 1x16 (includes 2M buyout) coming off shoulder surgery. His velo will probably be down, but it's not a bad risk for a one year deal.

 

Giolito was the clear better one. But for the one vote for “All of them”, that did include Montas, and I’d accept him as a signing. But I wasn’t exactly longing for him…

[moonslav59]

You think Hill and Wacha looked like reclamation projects though?

 

Yes.

 

Wacha may have looked okay, the year before, in terms of GS and IP, but he was not very good and was injured or inconsistent for many years, beforehand. He had not gone more than 127 IP since 2017, before giving us 127.1 in '22. He had a 5.05 ERA and 4.47 FIP in '21 and 6.62/5.25 in '20. To me, that screams reclamation more than Giolito or Kluber (not Richards.)

 

Maybe a better choice of words could be used for Hill, but at that age, almost everyone is considered a risk, if not a reclamation project. Yes, he had 32 GS in '21 with a 3.84 ERA and 4.34 FIP, so in the short term history, he was not technically "reclamation," but his injury history has been well documented for many years.

4 GS in 2015 w BOS (injured almost all season)

20 GS in '16

25 in '17

24 in '18

13 in '19

8 out of 12 in '20

31 in '21

26 for BOS in '22 was the second most since 2008 (15 years,) so yes, a reclamation project in my eyes.

 

[Dipre]

I don't understand the fascination with Wacha

[notin]

I don't understand the fascination with Wacha

 

He isn’t here any more. If he was still here, he’d be much less interesting…

[moonslav59]

I don't understand the fascination with Wacha

 

It's kinda funny. I guess looking at all the failures like the mixed-mess of 2020, Martin Perez, Richards, Martin Perez, again, and Kluber, performances like Wacha and Hill in 2022, look like Cy Youngs.

 

His record has been pretty good the last 2 years, and 127+ IP in both seasons is more than any other Sox pitcher from 2022-2023.

 

His 5.7 bWAR from 2022-2023 is pretty damn good. Fangraphs is not as kind.

 

Fangraphs on Wacha: (only 69 SP'ers had 250+ IP in the last 2 years- about 2 per team!)

 

4.1 fWAR 49th (0.4 below Stroman, 0.1 below Morton and 0.6 better than Nate. Giolito was at 2.8.)

 

3.26 ERA is 22nd! And that is what catches many fans eyes. (Better than Monty, Cease, Kirby, M Kelly, Strider and many more big name SP'ers.)

 

79 ERA- is 21st

 

4.23 xFIP is 52nd (slightly below Pivetta, Sandoval and Dunning & just ahead of Detmers.) 102 xFIP- is also 52nd

 

1.14 WHIP ranks 24th (better than Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, Monty, Pablo Lopez, Nate and more.)

 

14.4% k%-BB% is 49th (near Stroman, Kelly and Singer)

 

One could ask, why so many write him off, while pumping up Giolito for his GS and IP.

 

2022-2023

346 IP Giolito (21st) This does have real value, but pitching well matters, too.

262 IP Wacha (64th)

 

GS

63 Giolito (17th) 5.5 IP per GS

47 Wacha (65th) 5.6 IP per GS

 

fWAR

4.1 Wacha

2.8 Giolito (and fangraphs is known for adding a lot of value for IP)

 

 

 

[Dipre]

Jesus Christ, why'd I reopen that can of worms

[moonslav59]

Jesus Christ, why'd I reopen that can of worms

 

Was it his 3.26 ERA that hurt, so much?

 

[Dipre]

I can't get excited about Michael f***ing Wacha. He's not durable, and he's very fielding dependent on a year-to-year basis. He's also a whitebeard now, and he's not on the Red Sox. Why would I care?

[moonslav59]

I can't get excited about Michael f***ing Wacha. He's not durable, and he's very fielding dependent on a year-to-year basis. He's also a whitebeard now, and he's not on the Red Sox. Why would I care?

 

None of the FA pitchers are on the Sox, until we sign them.

 

I'm not a big Wacha fan, but he's not as bad as many seem to think he is, and his GS and IP, while not great, are ranked in the top 65 in MLB over the last 2 years. There are 150 SP'er slots in MLB (5 per team x 30 teams.) 65th is almost second tier.

 

I see him about like I do Giolito. He's pitched better the last 2 years, but Giolito has started more games and pitched more innings. If I had to choose:

 

Wacha > Giolito for 2024 only.

[Dipre]

For a team that needs IP more than anything else, that's a delusional take.

[Bellhorn04]

He isn’t here any more. If he was still here, he’d be much less interesting…

 

Or if the Red Sox actually acquired someone interesting for 2024...