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Posted
There are hundreds of different stats out there , with new ones being invented all the time. In the end , the stat that matters is wins and losses. Some of your pitchers better have good records or you are in trouble. I think it is reasonable to expect your top starters to win games. Look back at who are considered the great pitchers in history. They usually have good win/loss records. You can argue this, that and the other , but I don't see how you can say it is meaningless. As I said before , if the ERA is out of whack with the win/loss record , you should take another look because the win/loss could be a fluke. But to just discount the record makes no sense. Why do teams want their best pitchers in the big games ? Because they want to win.

 

Jacob Degrom spent years being the best pitcher on this planet while having a mediocre record. Pitcher wins and losses are almost completely out of the control of the pitcher. We're not reinventing the wheel here.

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Posted
If the White Sox would do that Rafaela/Bleis trade, I’d add Cease to the staff today…

 

I would, too, and cross my fingers.

 

ExtendingCease would make it even better.

Posted
I would, too, and cross my fingers.

 

ExtendingCease would make it even better.

 

 

You just have to acquire him first. The days of teams granting a 72 hour window for an extension as a condition of the trade are long gone…

Posted
You just have to acquire him first. The days of teams granting a 72 hour window for an extension as a condition of the trade are long gone…

 

It looks that way. At least Cease has2 years, not 1 like Burnes and others.

Posted
Bradford trade proposal today: Duran, Yorke, Perales for Cease, Jimenez...

 

I'm in. Brez?

 

Eloy is permanently injured and is just a DH now. It's an overpay by the Red Sox. I'd do it if they throw in Gregory Santos and we give them Hamilton to ease the 40 man burden.

Posted
Eloy is permanently injured and is just a DH now. It's an overpay by the Red Sox. I'd do it if they throw in Gregory Santos and we give them Hamilton to ease the 40 man burden.

 

At DH, he should stay healthier, and he is a big RH'd bat.

 

Last 3 yrs numbers per 162 games:

 

.274 28 97 (.785 OPS)

 

The problem is, he pushes Yoshida back to LF, and maybe Duran to CF or part of the trade.

 

I'd rather find a way to get Cease without Jimenez.

Posted
At DH, he should stay healthier, and he is a big RH'd bat.

 

Last 3 yrs numbers per 162 games:

 

.274 28 97 (.785 OPS)

 

The problem is, he pushes Yoshida back to LF, and maybe Duran to CF or part of the trade.

 

I'd rather find a way to get Cease without Jimenez.

 

Red Sox need righty power, and Eloy turned 27 today! Change of scenery, about to enter his prime, under contract for one year with a team option... most similar batter is Ryan Mountcastle, or Lee May at his current age. I can live with that for a staff ace.

Posted
Red Sox need righty power, and Eloy turned 27 today! Change of scenery, about to enter his prime, under contract for one year with a team option... most similar batter is Ryan Mountcastle, or Lee May at his current age. I can live with that for a staff ace.

 

If CWS insistes we take Jimenez to get Cease, I'm okay with the idea.

 

I will add that I do not want Duran in CF, so Duran, Yorke (who I see as overrated) and Perales for Cease and E Jimenez takes away that option from Cora.

 

Cease has 2 years.

 

I like Monty more than him, and we don't have to give up any players for him.

 

I'd love to get Cease and Monty.

Posted
At DH, he should stay healthier, and he is a big RH'd bat.

 

Last 3 yrs numbers per 162 games:

 

.274 28 97 (.785 OPS)

 

The problem is, he pushes Yoshida back to LF, and maybe Duran to CF or part of the trade.

 

I'd rather find a way to get Cease without Jimenez.

 

Eloy is never gonna get to 162 games unless you're counting multiple seasons.

Posted
If CWS insistes we take Jimenez to get Cease, I'm okay with the idea.

 

I will add that I do not want Duran in CF, so Duran, Yorke (who I see as overrated) and Perales for Cease and E Jimenez takes away that option from Cora.

 

Cease has 2 years.

 

I like Monty more than him, and we don't have to give up any players for him.

 

I'd love to get Cease and Monty.

 

It's an overpay of a trade IMO.

Posted
Eloy is never gonna get to 162 games unless you're counting multiple seasons.

 

I did not mean to imply he will reach 162- only that his rate of production over the last 3 years was as stated.

 

2018 (122/162) and 2020 (55/60) were long ago.

 

Since then:

 

55 in 2021 (18 GS at DH/ 37 OF)

84 in 2022 (50 GS at DH/ 30 OF)

120 in 2023 (104 GS at DH/ 14 OF)

 

These numbers show he plays more the more he DHs. It does not mean that trend continues, but I just pointed out that as a DH, he may be expected to play more than his overall average has shown.

 

I'm not high on him. I think he'd be a nice RH'd bat as a DH, but we have a DH.

 

If the CWS insisted we take him to get Cease, I'd swallow the pain pill and do it for Duran, Yorke and Perales, despite the overpay.

 

BTV accepts: Duran & Wink for the two. (Also Duran & Schreiber)

Duran & Yorke is an overpay, even without Perales.

Maybe Duran, Perales, Drohan & EValdez would not be bad. (BTV accepted.)

 

Posted
It's an overpay of a trade IMO.

 

You're welcome to that opinion, and no statistics -- no matter how someone twists them -- can ever definitively prove someone's opinion is wrong.

 

We think we know what we'd be getting from Cease, and what Duran and Eloy have to offer. No one knows for sure what's in store for Yorke or Perales -- or if they'll even make it. But there is an outside chance one or the other goes off next season, makes the majors, and earns more WAR than the two White Sox players, who maybe continue to regress...

Posted
You're welcome to that opinion, and no statistics -- no matter how someone twists them -- can ever definitively prove someone's opinion is wrong.

 

We think we know what we'd be getting from Cease, and what Duran and Eloy have to offer. No one knows for sure what's in store for Yorke or Perales -- or if they'll even make it. But there is an outside chance one or the other goes off next season, makes the majors, and earns more WAR than the two White Sox players, who maybe continue to regress...

 

I believe Duran has considerable trade value as does Yorke (due to proximity to MLB). Perales is a bigger unknown as he's further away. Cease can come in and be a #2 at least for a few years. I'm not sure Perales gets there. He's probably a #4 or bullpen piece, but has a chance at being better.

 

It is an overpay, but I'm not saying I wouldn't overpay to fix this s***** rotation especially as names are taken off the FA market (if that makes sense).

Posted
I believe Duran has considerable trade value as does Yorke (due to proximity to MLB). Perales is a bigger unknown as he's further away. Cease can come in and be a #2 at least for a few years. I'm not sure Perales gets there. He's probably a #4 or bullpen piece, but has a chance at being better.

 

It is an overpay, but I'm not saying I wouldn't overpay to fix this s***** rotation especially as names are taken off the FA market (if that makes sense).

 

Other trade options include Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber. The big issue is each has just one year of control remaining. But that’s not an unfixable issue in many cases…

Posted
I believe Duran has considerable trade value as does Yorke (due to proximity to MLB). Perales is a bigger unknown as he's further away. Cease can come in and be a #2 at least for a few years. I'm not sure Perales gets there. He's probably a #4 or bullpen piece, but has a chance at being better.

 

It is an overpay, but I'm not saying I wouldn't overpay to fix this s***** rotation especially as names are taken off the FA market (if that makes sense).

 

That's the whole point this winter. The Red Sox need to improve now and can't wait around to see if Perales will be a good big league pitcher in a few years. I'd rather Brez spends big bucks than deal big prospects, too... and based on recent health and consistency, would rather trade for and extend Burnes instead of Cease, Glasnow or the Beiber.

Posted
That's the whole point this winter. The Red Sox need to improve now and can't wait around to see if Perales will be a good big league pitcher in a few years. I'd rather Brez spends big bucks than deal big prospects, too... and based on recent health and consistency, would rather trade for and extend Burnes instead of Cease, Glasnow or the Beiber.

 

I agree. Brez needs to identify the prospects with value he's willing to part with, bite the bullet and pull the trigger.

 

Garrett has 5 years left

Detmers & Javier 4

Luzardo, T Rogers, Luis Garcia, Sandoval & Singer 3

Cease & M Keller 2 years left.

Burnes, Glasnow and Beiber 1

 

Maybe more might be available.

Posted
That's the whole point this winter. The Red Sox need to improve now and can't wait around to see if Perales will be a good big league pitcher in a few years. I'd rather Brez spends big bucks than deal big prospects, too... and based on recent health and consistency, would rather trade for and extend Burnes instead of Cease, Glasnow or the Beiber.

 

If they are going to overpay, I don't know if Cease is the guy I'd do it for. His velo was also down last season. CLE said they won't trade Beiber. Not sure if the Rays would trade within the division. Burnes has the true aces potential and seems like the best fit to me too.

Posted
If they are going to overpay, I don't know if Cease is the guy I'd do it for. His velo was also down last season. CLE said they won't trade Beiber. Not sure if the Rays would trade within the division. Burnes has the true aces potential and seems like the best fit to me too.

 

I really like Burnes, too. Trading for one year guys scares the bejesus out of me, especially if 2024 isn't an "all in" year, or if we don't extend him.

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but the velo charts on fangraphs seems to show a slight decline in velo from '22 (94-96) to '23 (93-95):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/corbin-burnes/19361/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2021&end=2023&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FC&ymin=&ymax=

Posted
I really like Burnes, too. Trading for one year guys scares the bejesus out of me, especially if 2024 isn't an "all in" year, or if we don't extend him.

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but the velo charts on fangraphs seems to show a slight decline in velo from '22 (94-96) to '23 (93-95):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/corbin-burnes/19361/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2021&end=2023&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FC&ymin=&ymax=

 

If they are going to trade for a pitcher, they need to extend them no matter what. Otherwise, why would the be trading for them?

Posted
If they are going to trade for a pitcher, they need to extend them no matter what. Otherwise, why would the be trading for them?

 

And how do you guarantee you'll be able to extend them?

Posted
Red Sox need righty power, and Eloy turned 27 today! Change of scenery, about to enter his prime, under contract for one year with a team option... most similar batter is Ryan Mountcastle, or Lee May at his current age. I can live with that for a staff ace.

Eloy Jimenez is a trade target in an astute poster’s offseason plan for the Seattle Mariners:

 

https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=8790&start=560#p271859

 

🥴

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