Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations

[notin]

That possibility would relegate Yoshida to the trade market. That move would remove one defensive liability, however neither Mayer or Yorke have proven themselves at the ML level.

 

It could.

 

If you’re one of those believes a GM prefers “his guys”, none of them are linked to Breslow. Yorke, Mayer and Story are also all trade candidates in that scenario…

[Randy Red Sox]

Maybe?

 

1B/DH Devers/Casas

2B Yorke

SS Mayer

3B Story

 

and what comes of Yoshida? Given his contract I don't see a whole lot of trade value

[Randy Red Sox]

It could.

 

If you’re one of those believes a GM prefers “his guys”, none of them are linked to Breslow. Yorke, Mayer and Story are also all trade candidates in that scenario…

 

Story with his contract is not really a trade option and I don't see Yorke bringing that much back t least on his own either.

[Hugh2]

Lmmfao!

 

Great work John, 99% of the time an ex-player hire in the Front Office is and becomes what we called in the Military a cluster f##k…

See the Bruins and that disaster of a franchise, but that’s for another day

 

Henry should have shown Kennedy the door paving the way for Epstein to run the entire organization

Epstein steps away from the Cubs in 20, breezelow in charge of pitching, cubs in 21 22 under .500 a few games above in 23 and 1 pitching prospect in mlb’s top 100 prospects, brilliant hire!

 

If breezelow doesn’t revamp the Minor League Scouting Drafting and Development department first and foremost by showing Crockett Abrahams Romero and every other swinging d!ck involved in the process the door, ain’t nothing going to change

 

Free Agent targets- Bellinger Snell

Trade target- Soto

Trade bait- Casas (see above) Verdugo Yoshida Houck Jansen

 

Prospects that should be untouchable at all cost - Yorke Mayer Teel Rafaela

 

Those are the facts and the facts are undisputed

 

I nominate this for dumbest post of the month award.

 

Good luck Stork.

[dgalehouse]

Mayer has yet to prove himself at the AA level. That's not to say he won't, just that he hasn't so far.

[moonslav59]

and what comes of Yoshida? Given his contract I don't see a whole lot of trade value

 

Forcing Yoshida to play LF is not ideal, but for many years, the Sox have won with a poor defensive LF'er.

 

Anyway, this is likely 1 to 2.5 years away from possibly happening.

 

I don't get concerned about possibly having a surplus of good players at one position. We can just trade somebody, if it comes to that.

[moonslav59]

Story with his contract is not really a trade option and I don't see Yorke bringing that much back t least on his own either.

 

Agreed. Not now, anyway.

 

Yorke plus Rafaela or Duran might.

[moonslav59]

I nominate this for dumbest post of the month award.

 

Good luck Stork.

 

All but the part about amounts of wins in certain years are opinions, and not a very good ones either.

 

Yet, he almost always ends with ...

 

Those are the facts and the facts are undisputed.

[notin]

Story with his contract is not really a trade option and I don't see Yorke bringing that much back t least on his own either.

 

When the Sox signed Story, he was coming off a 3 year run where he posted 11.1 fWAR and Bogaerts posted 11.8 fWAR.

 

Story hasn’t helped his value much since, but given what Bogaerts got in free agency, Story’s 4 yr / $92 mill contract could be a potential steal if the Sox make him available. Not like free agency has much in the way of game-changing shortstops. And if Javier Baez opts out, he still doesn’t represent a better option than Story…

[moonslav59]

When the Sox signed Story, he was coming off a 3 year run where he posted 11.1 fWAR and Bogaerts posted 11.8 fWAR.

 

Story hasn’t helped his value much since, but given what Bogaerts got in free agency, Story’s 4 yr / $92 mill contract could be a potential steal if the Sox make him available. Not like free agency has much in the way of game-changing shortstops. And if Javier Baez opts out, he still doesn’t represent a better option than Story…

 

Maybe Story has to produce for a stretch to get his trade value up, but I do think some teams might want him at his current salary without us paying anything. At worst, we may have to pay a few Million. The return would likely be next to nothing or some decent, but faraway prospect.

 

A swap of big salaries could also be an option, but we would also have to add a SS, somehow.

[moonslav59]

Mayer has yet to prove himself at the AA level. That's not to say he won't, just that he hasn't so far.

 

Very true, but he is a plus defender, already, but he has to prove he can hit well enough at the AA/AAA level to be viewed as a can't miss or near can't miss prospect.

[harmony]

Maybe Story has to produce for a stretch to get his trade value up, but I do think some teams might want him at his current salary without us paying anything. At worst, we may have to pay a few Million. The return would likely be next to nothing or some decent, but faraway prospect.

 

A swap of big salaries could also be an option, but we would also have to add a SS, somehow.

Baseball Trade Values assigns Trevor Story a negative value of $80.4 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/9499/

[moonslav59]

Baseball Trade Values assigns Trevor Story a negative value of $80.4 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/9499/

 

Yes. I know.

 

I think that would improve, if he showed he could hit for a stretch.

[harmony]

When the Sox signed Story, he was coming off a 3 year run where he posted 11.1 fWAR and Bogaerts posted 11.8 fWAR.

 

Story hasn’t helped his value much since, but given what Bogaerts got in free agency, Story’s 4 yr / $92 mill contract could be a potential steal if the Sox make him available. Not like free agency has much in the way of game-changing shortstops. And if Javier Baez opts out, he still doesn’t represent a better option than Story…

Javier Baez and Trevor Story were born two weeks apart and have five years remaining on their respective contracts but Baseball Trade Values assigns Baez and Story negative values of $77.4 million and $80.4 million, respectively.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/

[notin]

Javier Baez and Trevor Story were born two weeks apart and have five years remaining on their respective contracts but Baseball Trade Values assigns Baez and Story negative values of $77.4 million and $80.4 million, respectively.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/

 

Neither Story nor Baez has 5 years left on their current contract. Story has 4 years plus a team option/buyout. Baez has 4 years assuming he does not opt out this off-season…

[notin]

Mayer has yet to prove himself at the AA level. That's not to say he won't, just that he hasn't so far.

 

He hasn’t done a lot of things yet. Like turn 21, for instance…

[harmony]

Javier Baez and Trevor Story were born two weeks apart and have five years remaining on their respective contracts but Baseball Trade Values assigns Baez and Story negative values of $77.4 million and $80.4 million, respectively.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/

Thanks for the clarification. The numbers on the BTV chart need updating.

[Randy Red Sox]

Agreed. Not now, anyway.

 

Yorke plus Rafaela or Duran might.

 

maybe a reliever but not a top SP

[Randy Red Sox]

Yes. I know.

 

I think that would improve, if he showed he could hit for a stretch.

 

Story was a terrible signing. He has given us 2 years of nothing and he's not getting any younger. Another Bloom blunder

[moonslav59]

Story was a terrible signing. He has given us 2 years of nothing and he's not getting any younger. Another Bloom blunder

 

Nobody is disputing he has not given us what we expected. His 2.6 fWAR in 137 games is pretty close to what he did in his last 2 years in COL, per game, but we need a 3.5 + fWAR from him.

 

I'm not giving up hope on that, but so far... Yuck!

[moonslav59]

maybe a reliever but not a top SP

 

He better be a really good RP'er.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the clarification. The numbers on the BTV chart need updating.

 

They are updating all the time, but seem to take a long time on some players.

 

They finally dropped Yoshida to 0.4, but even that seems too high.

 

Looking at their numbers, now, half the Sox top 10 value players may start 2024 in the minors:

 

60 Mayer

42 Anthony

39 Casas

36 Bello

30 Duran (jump back up in value)

29 Bleis

29 Crawford

22 Houck

17 Yorke

17 Rafaela

 

17 Whitlock

14 Schreiber (seems high)

12 Winckowski

10 Devers

10 Pivetta

6 Drohan (seems high and has not been adjusted in a long time)

5 Verdugo

5 Perales

4 EValdez

4 Romero

 

4 Wikelman & Bernardino

3 Meidroth, Abreu, Martin, Urias, E R-C, Jansen, Alcantara, Cespedes

 

2 Wong, Paulino, Monegro, Mata, McGuire, Jordan, Castro, Bastardo, DHam, Murphy

 

1-2 Walter, Brannon, Jimenez, Lugo, Hickey, Bonaci, Guerrero, Rogers, Robertson, Refsnyder

 

Others between 0-1

3.0 Turner

-8.6 Sale

-80.4 Story

 

 

[notin]

maybe a reliever but not a top SP

 

Jordan Montgomery went for Harrison Bader alone…

[moonslav59]

BTV has these value and possible matches....

 

Yorke + Rafaela at a value of 34.5.

Keller PIT 36.0

Sandoval LAA 33.8

Kelly AZ 30.9

Burnes MIL 30.3

Ashcroft CIN 29.5

 

Yorke + Duran would be 47.4.

Cease 50.5 CWS (would need to give someone like Perales, too.)

Detmers 48.7 LAA

 

Dugo + Yorke would be 22.4.

Alcantara MIA 23.8

Singer KCR 24.7

 

Note: These are just BTV numbers. I'm not sure any of these teams would make these trades, even if we added players like Romero, Perales, Mata, Hickey, Drohan, Walter or Murphy types.

 

It may show "ballpark" offers needed, and who we might be able to get.

 

[mvp 78]

Keller is average in every way. He'd be the instant potatoes of offseason moves.

 

Sandoval is a pitch to contact junkball lefty. Not sure how well that would go over here. Not a high ceiling and doesn't throw a lot of innings for what he does.

 

Zero chance Kelly is traded after this DBags WS run.

 

Corbin Burnes is a perennial All Star and has won a CY. He's ok I guess. Only one year of control.

 

I believe you mean AshcrAft, a pre-Arb Reds starter. He's a 5th starter maybe.

 

To me, Cease is a little overrated. He's like a mildly better version of ERod. I don't think he's going to anchor your staff as he gives up too many walks and tends to get hit hard. If you're acquiring him to not be the #1, fine.

 

Detmers is interesting because the Sox had lots of trouble against LHB, but most of his value is tied up solely in his age.

 

Alcantara just got TJS this month, so why trade for him until you know what he looks like.

 

Singer is a two pitch guy (sinker/slider) and he's probably a back end guy until he develops a third pitch (sounds familiar, huh).

[moonslav59]

Keller is average in every way. He'd be the instant potatoes of offseason moves.

 

Sandoval is a pitch to contact junkball lefty. Not sure how well that would go over here. Not a high ceiling and doesn't throw a lot of innings for what he does.

 

Zero chance Kelly is traded after this DBags WS run.

 

Corbin Burnes is a perennial All Star and has won a CY. He's ok I guess. Only one year of control.

 

I believe you mean AshcrAft, a pre-Arb Reds starter. He's a 5th starter maybe.

 

To me, Cease is a little overrated. He's like a mildly better version of ERod. I don't think he's going to anchor your staff as he gives up too many walks and tends to get hit hard. If you're acquiring him to not be the #1, fine.

 

Detmers is interesting because the Sox had lots of trouble against LHB, but most of his value is tied up solely in his age.

 

Alcantara just got TJS this month, so why trade for him until you know what he looks like.

 

Singer is a two pitch guy (sinker/slider) and he's probably a back end guy until he develops a third pitch (sounds familiar, huh).

 

These guys blow away all of our current Sp'ers, except Bello and a healthy Sale (I know- oxymoron.)

 

TOP SP'ers by fWAR from 2021-2023 (300+ IP)

3. Burnes 15.5

7. Alcantara 12.9 (Yes he is hurt. The guy has 5 years of control as pre-arb and arb. I'll take 4 of them.)

8. Cease 12.6

41. Sandoval 7.6

47. Singer 6.9

51. Keller 6.5

 

Last 2 years (250+ IP)

9. Alcanatara 8.6

11. Cease 8.1

12. Burnes 8.0

29. Sandoval 6.1

35. Keller 5.3

40. Singer 4.8

43. Detmers 4.7

 

These guys have #2 slot numbers, if not #1's.

 

If I lower the IP to 140 (a very low bar for 2 full seasons as a SP'er), so I come up with 150 pitchers (5 x 30 teams,) here is where they rank:

 

9. Alcantara (if we are looking at 2025 as "the year," this makes more sense.)

11. Cease

12. Burnes (The one year is the downfall.)

29. Sandoval (a top 30 pitcher in a 30 team league)

39. Keller (a solid #2, if you slot 31-60's as #2's.)

45. Singer (an average #2)

47. Detmers (already a #2)

 

80. Bello 2.8 fWAR

 

ERA-

7. Snell

11. Gray

12. Alcantara

18. Burnes

33. Cease

40. Montgomery

42. Sandoval

43. Garrett (another trade target)

59. Stroman

71. Keller (a solid #3)

82. Detmers

83. Bello

86 Singer

 

xFIP

9. Nola

15. Burnes

22. Garrett

26. Snell

35. Alcantara

39. Gray

42. Montgomery

48. Cease

49. Singer

51. keller

 

I'm thinking we sign an ace (Yamamoto, Gray, Snell, Nola or Montgomery) and trade for a solid #2. That leaves money to sign a big RHB or a bigger LHB.

 

Edited October 30, 2023 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

These guys blow away all of our current Sp'ers, except Bello and a healthy Sale (I know- oxymoron.)

 

TOP SP'ers by fWAR from 2021-2023 (300+ IP)

3. Burnes 15.5

7. Alcantara 12.9 (Yes he is hurt. The guy has 5 years of control as pre-arb and arb. I'll take 4 of them.)

8. Cease 12.6

41. Sandoval 7.6

47. Singer 6.9

51. Keller 6.5

 

Last 2 years (250+ IP)

9. Alcanatara 8.6

11. Cease 8.1

12. Burnes 8.0

29. Sandoval 6.1

35. Keller 5.3

40. Singer 4.8

43. Detmers 4.7

 

These guys have #2 slot numbers, if not #1's.

 

If I lower the IP to 140 (a very low bar for 2 full seasons as a SP'er), so I come up with 150 pitchers (5 x 30 teams,) here is where they rank:

 

9. Alcantara (if we are looking at 2025 as "the year," this makes more sense.)

11. Cease

12. Burnes (The one year is the downfall.)

29. Sandoval (a top 30 pitcher in a 30 team league)

39. Keller (a solid #2, if you slot 31-60's as #2's.)

45. Singer (an average #2)

47. Detmers (already a #2)

 

80. Bello 2.8 fWAR

 

ERA-

7. Snell

11. Gray

12. Alcantara

18. Burnes

33. Cease

40. Montgomery

42. Sandoval

43. Garrett (another trade target)

59. Stroman

71. Keller (a solid #3)

82. Detmers

83. Bello

86 Singer

 

xFIP

9. Nola

15. Burnes

22. Garrett

26. Snell

35. Alcantara

39. Gray

42. Montgomery

48. Cease

49. Singer

51. keller

 

I'm thinking we sign an ace (Yamamoto, Gray, Snell, Nola or Montgomery) and trade for a solid #2. That leaves money to sign a big RHB or a bigger LHB.

 

 

Gray looked really good in his relief stint in Game 1.

 

Craig and I would like to see him get a start before the Series is over, for more evaluation...

[Hugh2]

Yama + Gray.

[moonslav59]

Yama + Gray.

 

I'd be in heaven!

 

Maybe add Duvall. Trade Dugo for a LH'd RP'er and call it a day.

[mvp 78]

These guys blow away all of our current Sp'ers, except Bello and a healthy Sale (I know- oxymoron.)

 

TOP SP'ers by fWAR from 2021-2023 (300+ IP)

3. Burnes 15.5

7. Alcantara 12.9 (Yes he is hurt. The guy has 5 years of control as pre-arb and arb. I'll take 4 of them.)

8. Cease 12.6

41. Sandoval 7.6

47. Singer 6.9

51. Keller 6.5

 

Last 2 years (250+ IP)

9. Alcanatara 8.6

11. Cease 8.1

12. Burnes 8.0

29. Sandoval 6.1

35. Keller 5.3

40. Singer 4.8

43. Detmers 4.7

 

These guys have #2 slot numbers, if not #1's.

 

If I lower the IP to 140 (a very low bar for 2 full seasons as a SP'er), so I come up with 150 pitchers (5 x 30 teams,) here is where they rank:

 

9. Alcantara (if we are looking at 2025 as "the year," this makes more sense.)

11. Cease

12. Burnes (The one year is the downfall.)

29. Sandoval (a top 30 pitcher in a 30 team league)

39. Keller (a solid #2, if you slot 31-60's as #2's.)

45. Singer (an average #2)

47. Detmers (already a #2)

 

80. Bello 2.8 fWAR

 

ERA-

7. Snell

11. Gray

12. Alcantara

18. Burnes

33. Cease

40. Montgomery

42. Sandoval

43. Garrett (another trade target)

59. Stroman

71. Keller (a solid #3)

82. Detmers

83. Bello

86 Singer

 

xFIP

9. Nola

15. Burnes

22. Garrett

26. Snell

35. Alcantara

39. Gray

42. Montgomery

48. Cease

49. Singer

51. keller

 

I'm thinking we sign an ace (Yamamoto, Gray, Snell, Nola or Montgomery) and trade for a solid #2. That leaves money to sign a big RHB or a bigger LHB.

 

 

You can line up all those guys in a spreadsheet based on a two year sample and say you like them or not. I looked at their pitch mix and their Statcast pages. Singer is not a #2. Keller is not as good as Bello going forward IMO. Why would you trade for Alcantara if you have no idea what he's going to look like when he pitches again? Also, you don't even know his contract status. He's not pre-ARB anymore as he's already signed an extension.

 

I just don't think you can put every pitcher in a 150 man list and grab the 45th guy and say "well, he'll be a good #2 then!" It's just not how life works. You need to actually look at how that pitcher would work for BOS and how that pitcher projects going forward. The Sox should sign Yamamoto, trade/extend Burnes then call it a day. Get two impact arms to lead the rotation that will completely change the look of the rotation.

 

Burnes

Yamamoto

Bello

Sale

Crawford/Pivetta/Houck/Wikelman