A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

because it's more and moronic it keeps happening in Boston, where the front office gets what it pays for -- which are acquisitions that are prone to break down with some kind of flaw that made them available as alternatives to spending on top talent?

 

because it rhymes with ironic?

 

because semantics police lurk in the dirt like trapdoor spiders, ever ready to pounce on any word they can counter, just for the sake of creating arguments that keep the majority of forum members from even bothering to post anymore?

 

You really need to stop complaining about being word policed when folks respond to posts in which you were word policing someone else.

 

And it’s ironic that the word you chose to police was “ironic”, as Larry did use it correctly when referring to finally replacing the oft-injured Sale with a pitcher who then came down with an even worse injury…

[notin]

So true. Reminds of Jim Palmer, who, after leading the AL in ERA in 1973, gave up almost a run more per game the next year. But he bounced back to led in ERA again in 1975 (for those who value won-loss records, Big Jim was a 20-game winner for four straight years before slumping to 7-12 in '74; he then won 20 or more the next four years).

 

The difference is that Palmer had elbow problems for at least two months during '74, and Giolito's were just disclosed now, after two really bad seasons.

 

Well, we don’t exactly know when Giolito tore the ligament. He probably received an MRI prior to his deal, which should have shown it. But from what I hear, MRIs for pitchers are often very messy and complicated…

[moonslav59]

Alanis Morissette would say it was ironic.

 

And she clearly doesn’t know the meaning of the word.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Career ERA 4.43

Career FIP 4.44

 

He's been good, bad and ugly over his career, netting out as supremely mediocre.

 

Hated the signing. Dumpster dive with no upside. If he pitched well he'd opt out after 2024.

 

The Giolito signing almost made me puke the minute they announced it. Just what a putrid starting rotation needs -- someone, who if he's good, will leave after one year... but if he sucks, we're stuck with him. All that arrangement ever indicated is that the front office was just trying to fill uniforms to get through this season, and then start all over again next year.

 

It's insulting to fans -- and if you don't think so, I'll rephrase immediately: it's insulting to this fan.

[moonslav59]

Gonzalez will be in WOO before the end of May. That's close enough for an emergency call up if he's pitching well.

 

Agreed.

[notin]

Include innings please.

 

Why? If I cited the worst ERA over that stretch, innings are necessary. But his 9.00 says enough and that it wasn’t a full compliment of innings doesn’t exactly help the case. I mean, what’s the defense? “You can’t expect Eovaldi’s weak performance to predict an injury, since he spent much of that stretch out injured.”

 

But if you like, Eovaldi was limited to 20 IP over that stretch. And I strongly suspect he wasn’t limited to that small sample size because he was overly healthy…

[moonslav59]

The Gio signing reeked of the same philosophy as Kluber and Richards: trying to catch lightening in a bottle, short term.

I will admit Gio looked more promising than any SPer signing since the Nate extension, but that’s not saying much.

 

Until we start getting serious, we will keep getting what we pay for- or less.

[mvp 78]

Giolito gave up 24 HR in his last 72 IP and he was our big pitching acquisition. That might qualify as moronic.

 

Yes, he shouldn't have been the best pitcher acquired. There was a significant chance that he wouldn't outpitch Bello, Pivetta, Crawford aside from INNINGS.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You really need to stop complaining about being word policed when folks respond to posts in which you were word policing someone else.

 

And it’s ironic that the word you chose to police was “ironic”, as Larry did use it correctly when referring to finally replacing the oft-injured Sale with a pitcher who then came down with an even worse injury…

 

How semantic of you to take a noun I used and turn into a verb thrice to pick apart yet another post. And don't pretend to defend Larry, because he knows I wasn't disagreeing with him -- as do you, officer -- but only adding to his take with another adjective. We're all in this together, even paid interns.

 

And if I wouldn't dare try to compare the waste of the Giolito signing with Sale's, lest I get my post instantly replied with quote, replete with statistics and dollar signs to prove how much better off we all are without that all-time fiasco-of-an-extension budget-killer... who no matter how good he pitches, will still spend more time on the IL this year than the guy he was traded for.

[jad]

because it's more and moronic it keeps happening in Boston, where the front office gets what it pays for -- which are acquisitions that are prone to break down with some kind of flaw that made them available as alternatives to spending on top talent?

 

because it rhymes with ironic?

 

because semantics police lurk in the dirt like trapdoor spiders, ever ready to pounce on any word they can counter, just for the sake of creating arguments that keep the majority of forum members from even bothering to post anymore?

 

Yup.

[Bellhorn04]

Why? If I cited the worst ERA over that stretch, innings are necessary. But his 9.00 says enough and that it wasn’t a full compliment of innings doesn’t exactly help the case. I mean, what’s the defense? “You can’t expect Eovaldi’s weak performance to predict an injury, since he spent much of that stretch out injured.”

 

But if you like, Eovaldi was limited to 20 IP over that stretch. And I strongly suspect he wasn’t limited to that small sample size because he was overly healthy…

 

Eovaldi was coming back from the IL and had a few rough games before straightening out in the postseason.

 

Giolito was horrible for 14 games, almost half a season.

 

It's just not a valid comparison.

[mvp 78]

Losing Giolito to a pre-season injury isn’t ironic or moronic, and his weak finish to 2023 wasn’t an indicator that he was getting injured. Eovaldi had an ERA over 9.00 over the last two months. Did it slow him down through October? Bello finished weakly last year, too. Should the Sox have waited long to extend him.

 

Signing Giolito wasn’t”moronic”, although it’s cleanly not going to help this year. Sometimes injuries are actually unforeseen by human beings who simply fail to be psychic. But what is moronic by the Sox is the failure to even bother adding anything to replace Giolito. Just bump another reliever into the toll rotation. And then grab whatever minor leaguer was next in line and push him into the bullpen.

 

And using Giolito’s injury as an excuse to drop out of the bidding for Montgomery is also moronic. Giolito was a one-year stopgap solution. Montgomery is a multi year solution. You don’t abandon the multi year solution because the stopgap collapsed. I suppose if they’re not wild about Montgomery, that’s one thing. But they do need some sort of plan. (I’m sure there is a plan, but it’s hard to recognize it. At least for me.)

 

Signing Giolito wasn't an issue. Not signing anyone better was.

[mvp 78]

Career ERA 4.43

Career FIP 4.44

 

He's been good, bad and ugly over his career, netting out as supremely mediocre.

 

Hated the signing. Dumpster dive with no upside. If he pitched well he'd opt out after 2024.

 

2019 - 7/23/23 (when he left CHW):

3.85 ERA

3.77 xFIP

Averaged 5.8 Innings per start

 

I'd take that from him all day.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi was coming back from the IL and had a few rough games before straightening out in the postseason.

 

Giolito was horrible for 14 games, almost half a season.

 

It's just not a valid comparison.

 

Gio had 4 really bad starts in those last 14 starts.

 

Nate has had 14 game bad stretches, too.

 

Of course Gio’s end to 2023 was very concerning and a red flag. I preferred many other guys to him, including Sonny Gray, a guy we both liked.

[mvp 78]

The Gio signing reeked of the same philosophy as Kluber and Richards: trying to catch lightening in a bottle, short term.

I will admit Gio looked more promising than any SPer signing since the Nate extension, but that’s not saying much.

 

Until we start getting serious, we will keep getting what we pay for- or less.

 

It made too much sense to sign Montgomery, but they went and got Dollar General Montgomery instead. IDK.

 

It's not how I'd run a franchise.

 

Giolito was fine if you're hoping for him to be a 3rd/4th starter, but the Sox needed more.

[mvp 78]

Yup.

 

No.

[Bellhorn04]

2019 - 7/23/23 (when he left CHW):

3.85 ERA

3.77 xFIP

Averaged 5.8 Innings per start

 

I'd take that from him all day.

 

He was really good in 2019-2021. His 2022 wasn't great.

[notin]

Signing Giolito wasn't an issue. Not signing anyone better was.

 

I can agree with that.

 

Giolito was an improvement, but not a game-changing one. They do still have time and opportunity to make a game-changing signing, but steadfastly refuse to do so.

 

Again, they might not be wild about Montgomery or Snell. But they will need to make some sort of similar commitment in the very near future. And if they are intrigued by either, but are using Giolito's injury to postpone being competitive another year, one has to seriously question the direction and smarts of the decision-making...

[Dipre]

It made too much sense to sign Montgomery, but they went and got Dollar General Montgomery instead. IDK.

 

It's not how I'd run a franchise.

 

Giolito was fine if you're hoping for him to be a 3rd/4th starter, but the Sox needed more.

 

 

Needed? You mean need.

[notin]

He was really good in 2019-2021. His 2022 wasn't great.

 

His 2023, like it or not, would have had the second best bWAR among Sox starting pitchers, trailing only Bello. He was at the very least, an improvement...

[Bellhorn04]

It made too much sense to sign Montgomery, but they went and got Dollar General Montgomery instead. IDK.

 

It's not how I'd run a franchise.

 

Giolito was fine if you're hoping for him to be a 3rd/4th starter, but the Sox needed more.

 

And a 19.25 million AAV is a lot to allocate to a 3/4 starter.

[Dipre]

And a 19.25 million AAV is a lot to allocate to a 3/4 starter.

 

Not for a decent 3 in today's market.

[Bellhorn04]

His 2023, like it or not, would have had the second best bWAR among Sox starting pitchers, trailing only Bello. He was at the very least, an improvement...

 

Not if you count Giolito's whole season.

[moonslav59]

He was really good in 2019-2021. His 2022 wasn't great.

 

Didn’t Nate have some bad years and missed time?

[moonslav59]

Not for a decent 3 in today's market.

 

But this is $38M/1, if we are lucky.

[notin]

And a 19.25 million AAV is a lot to allocate to a 3/4 starter.

 

The hard labeling of a 3/4 starter is subjective and therefore pointless.

 

Giolito even in 2023 slotted int second in the Sox rotation using bWAR as a metric. Is it too much money for a #2?

[Bellhorn04]

The hard labeling of a 3/4 starter is subjective and therefore pointless.

 

Giolito even in 2023 slotted int second in the Sox rotation using bWAR as a metric. Is it too much money for a #2?

 

You're not using the right numbers for Giolito. His 2023 total bWAR was 1.6, after a 0.5 in 2022.

[notin]

You're not using the right numbers for Giolito. His 2023 total bWAR was 1.6, after a 0.5 in 2022.

 

You're correct. He did have 2.8 bWAR with the White Sox, but negative bWARs with both Cleveland and Anaheim...

[Bellhorn04]

Didn’t Nate have some bad years and missed time?

 

It was notin who dragged Nate's 20 bad innings into this.

[mvp 78]

He was really good in 2019-2021. His 2022 wasn't great.

 

3.66 xFIP