A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Having doubts.

 

Henry has always wanted to run the team with economic efficiency. His first move was to try to lure Billy Beane out of Oakland. Beane wasn’t noted so much for actually winning titles as he was for being competitive on a shoestring budget.

 

I think Henry has always wanted to run the team as being competitive on a budget…

 

Maybe he wanted to do this, but were often the #1 or #2 spending team in MLB for over a decade under JH.

[Randy Red Sox]

My enthusiasm for the 2024/season is already gone . 80% chance they finish 5th 10% they finish 4th and 10% anywhere else. We will be right back here next off-season in the same predicament

[moonslav59]

My enthusiasm for the 2024/season is already gone . 80% chance they finish 5th 10% they finish 4th and 10% anywhere else. We will be right back here next off-season in the same predicament

 

Except, Anthony, Teel and Mayer should be ML ready, and guys like Rafaela, Abreu, Grissom and others will be better known commodities.

[notin]

Maybe he wanted to do this, but were often the #1 or #2 spending team in MLB for over a decade under JH.

 

 

Exactly, and now we’re not. Remember Miami in the 1997 World Series? Spend heavily, win, and then sell off all the pieces. (John Henry want part of that as Wayne Huzienga still owner the Marlins.). I think Henry liked that model for a while, even going so far as to bring in the former Marlins’ GM that made it all happen…

[harmony]

Because they had overspent on free agents the Arizona Diamondbacks declared bankruptcy one year after winning the 2001 World Series, according to the textbook in my current Sports Finance course.

[moonslav59]

According to Steve the Ump, the Sox ranked as such in player payrolls:

 

6th in 2003 ($7M from 3rd)

2nd in '04

2nd in "05 & '06

2nd in '07

4th in '08($4M from 2nd)

4th in '09 ($13M from 2nd)

2nd in '10

3rd in '11 & '12

4th in '13 ($15M from 3rd)

4th in '14

3rd in '15, '16 & '17

1st in '18

1st in '19

3rd in '20 & 21

6th in '22 ($13M from 5th)

13th in '23 ($5M from 10th and $30M from 6th)

 

[Randy Red Sox]

Except, Anthony, Teel and Mayer should be ML ready, and guys like Rafaela, Abreu, Grissom and others will be better known commodities.

 

and the pitchers will be ????..................

[Randy Red Sox]

Except, Anthony, Teel and Mayer should be ML ready, and guys like Rafaela, Abreu, Grissom and others will be better known commodities.

 

ALL e3 of those will be MLB ready at the start of 2025???

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

and the pitchers will be ????..................

 

... too expensive for Boston to sign.

[Bellhorn04]

Having doubts.

 

Henry has always wanted to run the team with economic efficiency. His first move was to try to lure Billy Beane out of Oakland. Beane wasn’t noted so much for actually winning titles as he was for being competitive on a shoestring budget.

 

I think Henry has always wanted to run the team as being competitive on a budget…

 

And we're all licensed mind readers here LOL

 

History shows that with the Red Sox, until 2023, Henry has always had a payroll near the top, and has generally used the first tax threshold as the rough budget limit.

 

If Henry really intends to cut the payroll well below the tax line, he's in for a shitstorm from fans and media, maybe even other owners, that I can't see him wanting to incur. If the team continues to grow in market value and show fat profits, he'll be singled out as one of the guys who is trying to cheat the system by not spending.

[harmony]

An analogy may be drawn with the choice between socially conscious investments and investments that provide the highest rate of return.

 

The goals of winning and being socially conscious may be honorable but the bottom line often carries the day.

Edited January 28, 2024 by harmony

[wyo-sox]

My enthusiasm for the 2024/season is already gone . 80% chance they finish 5th 10% they finish 4th and 10% anywhere else. We will be right back here next off-season in the same predicament

 

So you're saying there's a chance? I've actually spent a few weeks trying to pick another team to follow as I have really no hope this will be a fun or competitive team; however, I'm finding most teams are in dire need of 1-3 pitchers and also have not done much in the off season.

 

I'm resolved now to tune in and give this team as shot. It's baseball, anything can happen. I'm predicting Story is a beast this season. Bello continues to trend up. Houck has an off season away from his injury and is the biggest positive surprise of the year. Story running his little off season training camp with infielders was a great thing.

 

Despite ownership and coaching - it's baseball and the guys on the field can get hot and gel at the right times. Will they likely do that- no. But I'm going to at least enjoy the hell out of the first 30 games with my fingers crossed and find out.

 

I'm going

[notin]

And we're all licensed mind readers here LOL

 

History shows that with the Red Sox, until 2023, Henry has always had a payroll near the top, and has generally used the first tax threshold as the rough budget limit.

 

If Henry really intends to cut the payroll well below the tax line, he's in for a shitstorm from fans and media, maybe even other owners, that I can't see him wanting to incur. If the team continues to grow in market value and show fat profits, he'll be singled out as one of the guys who is trying to cheat the system by not spending.

 

 

Henry has cut payroll multiple times. There’s been a spend/cut/reset cycle going on with the Sox so long that it gets easily equated with shampoo bottle instructions.

 

I’m not sure “media shitshorms” bother Henry. The Ivory Tower is somewhat impenetrable. And I doubt he views simply not spending as trying to “cheat the system”; it’s not like he’s acting like Cincinnati or Pittsburgh ownership and screaming for revenue-sharing checks as the main source of income.

 

I also doubt other aspects of FSG rule how money gets spent in Boston. They probably have some investment in that portfolio struggling at any given time, and the notion that if any Henry investment anywhere in the world struggles, the Sox spending suffers looks like crying victim.

 

As the team stands now, the payroll (currently 10th in MLB per sportrac) isn’t dropping nearly as fast as the payroll ranking is dropping. Henry is still spending in the area of what he’s always spent (except for 2016-2019), but the league around him is spending more…

[Bellhorn04]

As the team stands now, the payroll (currently 10th in MLB per sportrac) isn’t dropping nearly as fast as the payroll ranking is dropping. Henry is still spending in the area of what he’s always spent (except for 2016-2019), but the league around him is spending more…

 

And I will argue vociferously that it's the ranking that matters. Other teams are spending more because they have the money. Baseball revenues continue to grow. Market values of teams continue to grow. Ticket prices continue to grow. If the Red Sox payroll is staying in place...

 

"One of these things is not like the others."

[notin]

And I will argue vociferously that it's the ranking that matters. Other teams are spending more because they have the money. Baseball revenues continue to grow. Market values of teams continue to grow. Ticket prices continue to grow. If the Red Sox payroll is staying in place...

 

"One of these things is not like the others."

 

You can argue all you want about how it matters. But what I said wasn’t my plan; it was my observation. I’m not arguing about it being ethical, smart or a good business practice. I’m just saying that’s what it looks like he is doing…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And I will argue vociferously that it's the ranking that matters. Other teams are spending more because they have the money. Baseball revenues continue to grow. Market values of teams continue to grow. Ticket prices continue to grow. If the Red Sox payroll is staying in place...

 

"One of these things is not like the others."

 

Great post. There's something happening here. What it is, ain't exactly beer.

[moonslav59]

and the pitchers will be ????..................

 

Same boat on pitching, yes, but adding those three is no minor blip, hopefully.

 

Perhaps, ownership will wake up and see a window has arrived and spend more than $12M on the rotation for the first time since the Sale and Nate contracts.

[moonslav59]

ALL e3 of those will be MLB ready at the start of 2025???

 

I said "should."

[moonslav59]

And we're all licensed mind readers here LOL

 

History shows that with the Red Sox, until 2023, Henry has always had a payroll near the top, and has generally used the first tax threshold as the rough budget limit.

 

If Henry really intends to cut the payroll well below the tax line, he's in for a shitstorm from fans and media, maybe even other owners, that I can't see him wanting to incur. If the team continues to grow in market value and show fat profits, he'll be singled out as one of the guys who is trying to cheat the system by not spending.

 

I have no proof or evidence to show JH intends to spend big, again, sometime soon, but there is also no evidence to show he will continue being a budget miser.

[moonslav59]

So you're saying there's a chance? I've actually spent a few weeks trying to pick another team to follow as I have really no hope this will be a fun or competitive team; however, I'm finding most teams are in dire need of 1-3 pitchers and also have not done much in the off season.

 

I'm resolved now to tune in and give this team as shot. It's baseball, anything can happen. I'm predicting Story is a beast this season. Bello continues to trend up. Houck has an off season away from his injury and is the biggest positive surprise of the year. Story running his little off season training camp with infielders was a great thing.

 

Despite ownership and coaching - it's baseball and the guys on the field can get hot and gel at the right times. Will they likely do that- no. But I'm going to at least enjoy the hell out of the first 30 games with my fingers crossed and find out.

 

I'm going

 

I'm hoping I might approach this attitude by game one.

 

I do know, I'm not going anywhere. I'm going to try and watch every pitch of every game, once again. I've been through lean times and hopeless stretches longer than 2 seasons.

 

There have been worse Sox teams than this one, and the thing that upsets me the most is that this team is actually good enough to be two major additions away from being a playoff contender and maybe even more. I would not be this down, if we needed 4 SP'ers, a closer and 3 everyday players to compete.

 

Just getting up to the tax line could get us there.

[jad]

Why are all positive things about this team expressed in the subjunctive?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I have no proof or evidence to show JH intends to spend big, again, sometime soon, but there is also no evidence to show he will continue being a budget miser.

 

Why, just because he hasn't signed Roman Anthony to a $28+ million extension, like the frickin Tigers just did with their 2nd-best prospect, Colt Keith -- who is ranked #22 overall, right there with #24 Anthony?

 

Was it a good investment? Keith is 22 years old and is signed through 2032. Anthony is 19...

 

So now the Brewers and Tigers have extended top prospects longterm... you know, those rich-market franchises that play in Milwaukee and Detroit. Red Sox are probably just waiting until Anthony is a big league star, and then will flip him for a cheaper prospect with a cooler name, like Cole Gehrig or Judge Ito.

[jad]

Another thing that discourages me is that every other team in the division has an easier schedule than the RS.

[notin]

Why are all positive things about this team expressed in the subjunctive?

 

1. Are you of all forum posters acknowledging positive things about the team?

 

2. Obviously they’d be in the subjunctive as the we’re trying to push the discussion towards the future…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Another thing that discourages me is that every other team in the division has an easier schedule than the RS.

 

Thanks -- that made me laugh. Why do all the better teams get to beat up on the same cellar dwellers in other divisions that we have to battle?

[moonslav59]

Henry has cut payroll multiple times. There’s been a spend/cut/reset cycle going on with the Sox so long that it gets easily equated with shampoo bottle instructions.

 

I’m not sure “media shitshorms” bother Henry. The Ivory Tower is somewhat impenetrable. And I doubt he views simply not spending as trying to “cheat the system”; it’s not like he’s acting like Cincinnati or Pittsburgh ownership and screaming for revenue-sharing checks as the main source of income.

 

I also doubt other aspects of FSG rule how money gets spent in Boston. They probably have some investment in that portfolio struggling at any given time, and the notion that if any Henry investment anywhere in the world struggles, the Sox spending suffers looks like crying victim.

 

As the team stands now, the payroll (currently 10th in MLB per sportrac) isn’t dropping nearly as fast as the payroll ranking is dropping. Henry is still spending in the area of what he’s always spent (except for 2016-2019), but the league around him is spending more…

 

've mentioned this, before, and agree. If you don't look at rankings, this recent dip in spending is one year long. Even adjusting for inflation, the rise in payroll from 2020 to 2022 was one of the largest 2 season increases in payroll in the two decades of JH's era.

 

CB TAX lines:

$192M in '17> $243M in '19= +$51M

$185M in '20> $236M in '22= +$51M.

+$39M from '05>'07

 

Biggest one year drops:

$59M '19>'20

$12M '16>'17

$10M '22>'23 (so far)

 

Before the CBTax, we dropped $14M in EOY payroll from '04 to '05.

 

This is not a defense of JH & Co, but just adding context.

 

(Note: these numbers are not adjusted for inflation.)

[notin]

Why, just because he hasn't signed Roman Anthony to a $28+ million extension, like the frickin Tigers just did with their 2nd-best prospect, Colt Keith -- who is ranked #22 overall, right there with #24 Anthony?

 

Was it a good investment? Keith is 22 years old and is signed through 2032. Anthony is 19...

 

So now the Brewers and Tigers have extended top prospects longterm... you know, those rich-market franchises that play in Milwaukee and Detroit. Red Sox are probably just waiting until Anthony is a big league star, and then will flip him for a cheaper prospect with a cooler name, like Cole Gehrig or Judge Ito.

 

 

That’s a good point.

 

If the Sox are going to try to be Tampa that build from within, a big part of that is the ridiculously early contract extension. The beauty of that incentive-laden contract Cole Keith got is, even if he flops, his $4.7mill AAV isn’t exactly a boat anchor and actually lines up pretty well with utility infielder money.

 

If the Sox want some positive press with their fans, extend as many of Bello, Casas, Mayer, Anthony and Teel as you can…

Edited January 28, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

And I will argue vociferously that it's the ranking that matters. Other teams are spending more because they have the money. Baseball revenues continue to grow. Market values of teams continue to grow. Ticket prices continue to grow. If the Red Sox payroll is staying in place...

 

"One of these things is not like the others."

 

Rankings does matter, more, but at least 3 of the teams that passed us were spending like maniacs, and I did not expect JH to follow their path.

 

Also, part of the reason our big jump in spending from "20 to'22 occurred was because there was such a massive budget cut from '19 to '20. If you look at our payroll from '18 and '19 to '22, there is a slight drop:

 

$192 in '17

$239 in '18

$244 in '19

 

$207 in '21

$236 in '22

$226 in '23, so far

 

 

[moonslav59]

Why, just because he hasn't signed Roman Anthony to a $28+ million extension, like the frickin Tigers just did with their 2nd-best prospect, Colt Keith -- who is ranked #22 overall, right there with #24 Anthony?

 

Was it a good investment? Keith is 22 years old and is signed through 2032. Anthony is 19...

 

So now the Brewers and Tigers have extended top prospects longterm... you know, those rich-market franchises that play in Milwaukee and Detroit. Red Sox are probably just waiting until Anthony is a big league star, and then will flip him for a cheaper prospect with a cooler name, like Cole Gehrig or Judge Ito.

 

Not sure what this has to do with my post that argues we don't know jack about how JH will spend, next year and beyond.

[Bellhorn04]

That’s a good point.

 

If the Sox are going to try to be Tampa that build from within, a big part of that is the ridiculously early contract extension. The beauty of that incentive-laden contract Cole Keith got is, even if he flops, his $4.7mill AAV isn’t exactly a boat anchor and actually lines up pretty well with utility infielder money.

 

If the Sox want some positive press with their fans, extend as many of Bello, Casas, Mayer, Anthony and Teel as you can…

 

How many major extensions have the Rays actually handed out over the years?

 

Longoria-now that was a beauty, but a long time ago.

 

Jeffrey Springs-might work out OK.

 

Wander Franco-not going to work out OK.