A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

Giolito has absolutely sucked the last 2 seasons. Wacha has been much better than Giolito.

 

I'll puke if they sign Giolito.

 

I want to see that…

[moonslav59]

If you had to pick one signing from below, which would it be?

 

If you had $55M AAV to spend, how would you spend it?

How about $75M?

 

$240M/8 Snell

$200M/8 Monty

$110/6 Imanaga

$60M/3 Stroman

$50M/3 Giolito

$40M/3 Clevinger

$30M/3 Lorenzen

$25M/2 Manaea

$20M/2 Junis

$16M/1 Montas

$14M/1 Paxton

$12M/1 Ryu

 

$40M/3 Garver

$20M/2 Merrifield or Amed Rosario

$18M/2 Duvall

$16M/1 J Turner or T Anderson

$8M/1 M. A. Taylor

 

My answers.

 

The best singular deal might be Imanaga. I'd sign him as the best deal.

 

$55M AAV:

25.0 Monty

18.5 Imanaga

10.0 Merrifield (or trade for Polanco)

 

$75M

25.0 Monty

20.0 Stroman

18.5 Imanaga

10.0 Merrifield

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

If there is one team offering an overpay like Xander, yeah it's an overpay. If a bunch of teams are offering about the same price like Yamamoto, it's no longer an overpay. That's just the market.

 

It all comes down to the meanings of words. What does "worth" mean? The Red Sox thought Castillo was worth 73 million at the time.

 

Last year they thought Yoshida was worth 105 million. Many disagreed, and those that disagreed appear to have been right.

[notin]

Sign Montgomery, Giolito and trade for Drury…

[moonslav59]

Lugo is a 34 year old who has only 64 career starts. How would he really give us HOPE if he signed here. C'mon man! That's just sour grapes....

 

I happen to think he signed for a reasonable rate.

 

Sure, he was not a SP'er early in his career. I don't hold that against him.

 

His signing would have been a gamble, and at that cost, about as much of a gamble as anyone else.

 

I'm not pining for Lugo, but to me, he was less of a gamble than Giolito and pretty close to Stroman and Montas. Imanaga is a guess.

[notin]

I happen to think he signed for a reasonable rate.

 

Sure, he was not a SP'er early in his career. I don't hold that against him.

 

His signing would have been a gamble, and at that cost, about as much of a gamble as anyone else.

 

I'm not pining for Lugo, but to me, he was less of a gamble than Giolito and pretty close to Stroman and Montas. Imanaga is a guess.

 

How is Lugo an equal gamble to Stroman?

[moonslav59]

It all comes down to the meanings of words. What does "worth" mean? The Red Sox thought Castillo was worth 73 million at the time. Last year they thought Yoshida was worth 105 million. Many disagreed, and those that disagreed appear to have been right.

 

1 year into a 5 year deal.

 

I do agree, he did not meet expectations, but I would choose someone else as an example over him.

 

Rusney was a good one.

 

The best example is Price. It was our biggest FA signing of all time, and still is. He looked like as sure a bet as any SP'er to ever reach the FA market- steady, healthy, not too old...

 

Some raised eyebrows at $217M/7, then. It turned out, they were right. The AAV was more than 50% higher than Manny and CC.)

 

The next largest FA signing under JH:

142/7 Crawford- total bust

140/6 Story- not off to a good start and the 1/3 point of his deal

110/5 JD- looks like a decent to good deal

95/5 Pablito- horrific

88/4 HRam- bust

83/5 Lackey- not good

(Dice-K and Rusney- not good and bust)

 

It's understandable to not think free agency is our answer, but if we got a few more right, maybe some minds might change.

 

[mvp 78]

If you had to pick one signing from below, which would it be?

 

If you had $55M AAV to spend, how would you spend it?

How about $75M?

 

$240M/8 Snell

$200M/8 Monty

$110/6 Imanaga

$60M/3 Stroman

$50M/3 Giolito

$40M/3 Clevinger

$30M/3 Lorenzen

$25M/2 Manaea

$20M/2 Junis

$16M/1 Montas

$14M/1 Paxton

$12M/1 Ryu

 

$40M/3 Garver

$20M/2 Merrifield or Amed Rosario

$18M/2 Duvall

$16M/1 J Turner or T Anderson

$8M/1 M. A. Taylor

 

My answers.

 

The best singular deal might be Imanaga. I'd sign him as the best deal.

 

$55M AAV:

25.0 Monty

18.5 Imanaga

10.0 Merrifield (or trade for Polanco)

 

$75M

25.0 Monty

20.0 Stroman

18.5 Imanaga

10.0 Merrifield

 

 

 

I don't think Giolito is getting that much. If I'm just grabbing one player it's Stroman. If I'm spending a max of $55 it's Stroman, Montas, Duvall, Merrifield. For 75 I'd add in Giolito.

[moonslav59]

How is Lugo an equal gamble to Stroman?

 

"about as much of a gamble."

 

Stroman may get $60M/3

 

Lugo got $45M/3

 

Money is not the only factor in determined risk, but it is a major one.

 

I thought you like Giolito. It's telling you did not use him as a comp to Lugo.

[mvp 78]

How is Lugo an equal gamble to Stroman?

 

It's just a wild statement.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Giolito is getting that much. If I'm just grabbing one player it's Stroman. If I'm spending a max of $55 it's Stroman, Montas, Duvall, Merrifield. For 75 I'd add in Giolito.

 

Looks fair.

 

You'd prefer Giolito to Imanaga? (Using my numbers, their AAV is similar.)

 

I agree, $50M/3 is too high for Giolito. I pretty much used MLBTR's projections and added to them.

[dgalehouse]

Reporter : " Yama, what about the idea of playing with your good buddy Yoshida in Boston "? Yamamoto: " Who "?

[mvp 78]

"about as much of a gamble."

 

Stroman may get $60M/3

 

Lugo got $45M/3

 

Money is not the only factor in determined risk, but it is a major one.

 

I thought you like Giolito. It's telling you did not use him as a comp to Lugo.

 

The comp to Lugo is the YOUNGER Michael Lorenzen. I'm not sure I'd invest a lot of money in either guy.

 

Stroman is consistently a 2-4 fWAR SP year in and year out.

 

Giolito was a 4 fWAR guy in '21 and consistently pitches every 5th day. It wouldn't be a huge shocker for him to do that one or two more times in the next four years. At least you'd expect him to be Porcello-esque.

 

With Lugo, there's not track record.

[mvp 78]

Looks fair.

 

You'd prefer Giolito to Imanaga? (Using my numbers, their AAV is similar.)

 

I agree, $50M/3 is too high for Giolito. I pretty much used MLBTR's projections and added to them.

 

Imanaga is interesting, but his numbers are worse than Yamamoto's in Japan, especially in innings. He could be great, but I worry about his lower velo not playing as well over here in MLB.

 

I'd be worried about years 4-6 in that deal.

[Dipre]

It all comes down to the meanings of words. What does "worth" mean? The Red Sox thought Castillo was worth 73 million at the time.

 

Last year they thought Yoshida was worth 105 million. Many disagreed, and those that disagreed appear to have been right.

 

Did Yoshida shoot your dog?

[moonslav59]

The comp to Lugo is the YOUNGER Michael Lorenzen. I'm not sure I'd invest a lot of money in either guy.

 

Stroman is consistently a 2-4 fWAR SP year in and year out.

 

Giolito was a 4 fWAR guy in '21 and consistently pitches every 5th day. It wouldn't be a huge shocker for him to do that one or two more times in the next four years. At least you'd expect him to be Porcello-esque.

 

With Lugo, there's not track record.

 

I realize the risk. I know I sound hypocritical to use a one year sample size, when I chide others for doing it, but it's not because of an injury history that Lugo's SP'er sample size is small.

 

I like Stroman more than Lugo. I'm just not sure I like him 33% more ($60M/3 vs $45M/3.) I'm not sure it's all that "wild" to say the risk is "ABOUT" the same.

 

2023:

fWAR

5.3 Gray

4.3 Monty

4.1 Snell

(3.7 Luzardo & Cease and 3.4 Burnes & Castillo and 3.0 B Garrett)

3.0 ERod

2.8 Lugo

2.6 Wacha

2.6 Stroman

(2.2 Crawford/2.1 Sale)

1.7 Lorenzen

1.0 Giolito

 

xFIP-

83 Snell

85 Gray

86 Lugo

87 Burnes

88 Stroman

92 Monty

95 ERod

102 Wacha

104 Giolito

 

ERA-

66 Gray

74 Monty

77 ERod

78 Wacha

86 Lugo

93 Stroman (and Bello)

94 Lorenzen

114 Giolito

 

Yes, it's just one season, but it was a pretty good one.

[mvp 78]

Did Yoshida shoot your dog?

 

Yoshida is going to do some cooking this year. Just don't have him play too much LF.

[moonslav59]

Imanaga is interesting, but his numbers are worse than Yamamoto's in Japan, especially in innings. He could be great, but I worry about his lower velo not playing as well over here in MLB.

 

I'd be worried about years 4-6 in that deal.

 

His numbers are worse, but his pay would be way less. If we trust the numbers in Japan enough to think Yamo is worth $325M, I'm thinking $90-110M for Imanaga looks like a decent risk.

 

Yes, age adds to the risk. He turns 31 in SEPT.

2.66 in 159 IP in '23

2.04 in 159 in '22

2.83 in 149 in '21

 

Yamo turns 26 in AUG

1.16 in 171 '23

1.68 in 193 '22

1.39 in 194 '21

 

There is clearly a big gap in performance and a significant IP difference, but Imanaga's numbers look damn good.

[mvp 78]

I realize the risk. I know I sound hypocritical to use a one year sample size, when I chide others for doing it, but it's not because of an injury history that Lugo's SP'er sample size is small.

 

I like Stroman more than Lugo. I'm just not sure I like him 33% more ($60M/3 vs $45M/3.) I'm not sure it's all that "wild" to say the risk is "ABOUT" the same.

 

2023:

fWAR

5.3 Gray

4.3 Monty

4.1 Snell

(3.7 Luzardo & Cease and 3.4 Burnes & Castillo and 3.0 B Garrett)

3.0 ERod

2.8 Lugo

2.6 Wacha

2.6 Stroman

(2.2 Crawford/2.1 Sale)

1.7 Lorenzen

1.0 Giolito

 

xFIP-

83 Snell

85 Gray

86 Lugo

87 Burnes

88 Stroman

92 Monty

95 ERod

102 Wacha

104 Giolito

 

ERA-

66 Gray

74 Monty

77 ERod

78 Wacha

86 Lugo

93 Stroman (and Bello)

94 Lorenzen

114 Giolito

 

Yes, it's just one season, but it was a pretty good one.

 

Yeah dood, you're only looking at one season. As I previously said, Stroman has a long track record you can bank on. Lugo doesn't have a track record outside the cozy confines of PetCo and the Padres defense.

[moonslav59]

Yoshida is going to do some cooking this year. Just don't have him play too much LF.

 

I think DH'ing will help him do better.

 

I think a year of adjusting to the league and the culture will help him do better in '24.

 

Not having a massive negative dWAR will raise his WAR by itself.

[mvp 78]

His numbers are worse, but his pay would be way less. If we trust the numbers in Japan enough to think Yamo is worth $325M, I'm thinking $90-110M for Imanaga looks like a decent risk.

 

Yes, age adds to the risk. He turns 31 in SEPT.

2.66 in 159 IP in '23

2.04 in 159 in '22

2.83 in 149 in '21

 

Yamo turns 26 in AUG

1.16 in 171 '23

1.68 in 193 '22

1.39 in 194 '21

 

There is clearly a big gap in performance and a significant IP difference, but Imanaga's numbers look damn good.

 

Age, plus they only pitch once per week in Japan on a set schedule. I'm not saying he'll suck, but that there's increased risk that his game won't play as well.

[mvp 78]

For example, his pitch band is more similar to Maeda than Yamamoto. Maeda is good, but not someone teams have been willing to give 6 years to in his 30's.

[moonslav59]

Yeah dood, you're only looking at one season. As I previously said, Stroman has a long track record you can bank on. Lugo doesn't have a track record outside the cozy confines of PetCo and the Padres defense.

 

It's not like Lugo sucked before '23. He just did not start.

 

I know it's a risk, but he'll likely cost $15M/3 less than Stroman, and I have greed Stroman is better, but the risk factor, which included money spent makes it "about" the same.

 

To you, that is "wild talk?"

 

For all we know, Stroman may get 4 years or $66M/3. Would it still be a major risk differential?

 

I know you are not high on Merrifield, but what if Lugo + Merrifield costs as much as Stroman. Is the "risk factor" about the same?

[moonslav59]

For example, his pitch band is more similar to Maeda than Yamamoto. Maeda is good, but not someone teams have been willing to give 6 years to in his 30's.

 

I did add a year to MLBTR's projection. Maybe instead of raising the projection from $85M/5 to $110M/6, I could have gone $100M/5- or even $95M/5.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

For the projections of what it will cost for Giolito, I'd rather just sign both Lorenzen and Manaea. None of them are that good, but might as well double your chances of one being good -- or at least eating some innings.

 

As for trades, all the big names left -- Bieber, Cease, Burnes -- had metrics pointing down last year. For the complete overhaul needed, I'd go big on Framber, if available (not trading Casas) -- Astros will want pitching back, so the Sox won't get him, anyway.

[mvp 78]

It's not like Lugo sucked before '23. He just did not start.

 

I know it's a risk, but he'll likely cost $15M/3 less than Stroman, and I have greed Stroman is better, but the risk factor, which included money spent makes it "about" the same.

 

To you, that is "wild talk?"

 

For all we know, Stroman may get 4 years or $66M/3. Would it still be a major risk differential?

 

I know you are not high on Merrifield, but what if Lugo + Merrifield costs as much as Stroman. Is the "risk factor" about the same?

 

I don't really like Merrifield at all so that doesn't move the needle.

[mvp 78]

For the projections of what it will cost for Giolito, I'd rather just sign both Lorenzen and Manaea. None of them are that good, but might as well double your chances of one being good -- or at least eating some innings.

 

As for trades, all the big names left -- Bieber, Cease, Burnes -- had metrics pointing down last year. For the complete overhaul needed, I'd go big on Framber, if available (not trading Casas) -- Astros will want pitching back, so the Sox won't get him, anyway.

 

Manea is awful. If he couldn't be successful with the Padres, it won't work out anywhere. Lorenzen isn't an improvement over the guys already on staff IMO. Once you get down to that level, just go with Crawford and Houck.

[moonslav59]

For the projections of what it will cost for Giolito, I'd rather just sign both Lorenzen and Manaea. None of them are that good, but might as well double your chances of one being good -- or at least eating some innings.

 

As for trades, all the big names left -- Bieber, Cease, Burnes -- had metrics pointing down last year. For the complete overhaul needed, I'd go big on Framber, if available (not trading Casas) -- Astros will want pitching back, so the Sox won't get him, anyway.

 

Maybe Luzardo or Garrett. Maybe Castillo, if SEA wants to cut the budget.

 

I'd rather just overpay Monty and keep the prospects. Make minor trades for guys like Polanco.

[moonslav59]

I don't really like Merrifield at all so that doesn't move the needle.

 

Okay, add the best FA you think we can get for the $15M differential. Is it still "wild talk?"

[mvp 78]

Okay, add the best FA you think we can get for the $15M differential. Is it still "wild talk?"

 

You think Stroman will be 30AAV?