A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I've been singing the blues for 3 offseasons now about starting pitchers they could have signed in the $50-110 million range.

 

If their whole offseason plan was based on signing Moto, that'd be as sound a plan as me deciding to retire based on the assumption I was going to win the lottery next week.

[moonslav59]

I've been singing the blues for 3 offseasons now about starting pitchers they could have signed in the $50-110 million range.

 

If their whole offseason plan was based on signing Moto, that'd be as sound a plan as me deciding to retire based on the assumption I was going to win the lottery next week.

 

Some of those FA SP'er signings over the last few years look like steals, now.

 

The Castillo extension, too.

[Bellhorn04]

Some of those FA SP'er signings over the last few years look like steals, now.

 

The Castillo extension, too.

 

Gray looks like a steal to me at $75 mill, but what do I know, as the saying goes.

[Bellhorn04]

Meanwhile, another long meeting of the Red Sox brain trust winds down. Almost time to pack things up for Christmas.

[moonslav59]

Gray looks like a steal to me at $75 mill, but what do I know, as the saying goes.

 

He was high on my wish list, and I liked the shorter deal.

[mvp 78]

Isn’t he in jail?

 

He’s been out since 2012.

[mvp 78]

Machado costs money…

 

Oh no! Get SD to cover part.

[moonslav59]

The full throttle optimist view:

Sign Monty, Imanaga and Stroman. Trade for Polanco and shoot for a playoff slot. (No top prospects traded.)

 

The full throttle pessimist view:

Trade Jansen, Martin, Sale (plus cash,) Pivetta, McGuire and O'Neill (at the deadline) for the best near ML ready prospects we can acquire- hopefully pitchers that fit Breslow's standards. Shoot for a top 5 draft pick and try to build a winner almost exclusively through our own system, because we ain't gettin' nuthin' from free agency.

 

Of course, we will march down the middle and get nowhere, but I'd prefer selling off than continuing as is: half-ass, snow jobbing it.

 

[Bellhorn04]

As sad as it is, I think Montgomery is now a pipe dream. He's going to get paid way too much.

[moonslav59]

As sad as it is, I think Montgomery is now a pipe dream. He's going to get paid way too much.

 

I guess the question is about "way too much." If this is the new norm, we either have to join the party or find a way to build a winner without mega FA signings.

 

We thought last winter's prices were "overpays." Some look pretty good, now, in light of skyrocketing salaries for the top tier players.

[moonslav59]

As sad as it is, I think Montgomery is now a pipe dream. He's going to get paid way too much.

 

"Too much" is a relative term.

 

If we actually did offer Yamo $300M, we can afford Monty, but yes, at some point it gets to a level where it will be counterproductive, because we all know the Sox will have a rigid budget, so overpaying one guy means not paying for another or two others.

[Bellhorn04]

"Too much" is a relative term.

 

If we actually did offer Yamo $300M, we can afford Monty, but yes, at some point it gets to a level where it will be counterproductive, because we all know the Sox will have a rigid budget, so overpaying one guy means not paying for another or two others.

 

Is there any indication we offered Moto $300M?

[Hugh2]

I guess the question is about "way too much." If this is the new norm, we either have to join the party or find a way to build a winner without mega FA signings.

 

We thought last winter's prices were "overpays." Some look pretty good, now, in light of skyrocketing salaries for the top tier players.

 

Every single year people say the prices are too high and I always say that's the market, and then the next year salaries just keep going up and up and up.

 

Anything, ANYTHING, is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it. Mutliple teams offered Yamamoto over $300 million, that's the going rate for young high caliber pitchers. He's also younger, so Snell, Montgomery will probably get signinficantly less. $100 million is significantly less. I think both those guys are getting around $200 plus.

 

Of course some will say "well lets just trade for a guy" ok....lets give up Mayer/Anthony + for a guy that we are just going to have to pay over $200 million. Corbin Burnes has publicly stated he plans on going to FA, Betts did the same thing but thats' because money talks, him and his agen have a dollar figure in mind. I wonder if anyone is willing to bet that number is less than $250 million????

 

This is the price of admission. Most of us aren't living on this island anymore, but no one can really be angry at the Sox for not getting any quality pitchers AND complain about the price of free agent contracts.

 

I'm moving on to Montgomery + Giolito.

[mvp 78]

Is there any indication we offered Moto $300M?

 

None.

[mvp 78]

Every single year people say the prices are too high and I always say that's the market, and then the next year salaries just keep going up and up and up.

 

Anything, ANYTHING, is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it. Mutliple teams offered Yamamoto over $300 million, that's the going rate for young high caliber pitchers. He's also younger, so Snell, Montgomery will probably get signinficantly less. $100 million is significantly less. I think both those guys are getting around $200 plus.

 

Of course some will say "well lets just trade for a guy" ok....lets give up Mayer/Anthony + for a guy that we are just going to have to pay over $200 million. Corbin Burnes has publicly stated he plans on going to FA, Betts did the same thing but thats' because money talks, him and his agen have a dollar figure in mind. I wonder if anyone is willing to bet that number is less than $250 million????

 

This is the price of admission. Most of us aren't living on this island anymore, but no one can really be angry at the Sox for not getting any quality pitchers AND complain about the price of free agent contracts.

 

I'm moving on to Montgomery + Giolito.

 

Agreed.

 

"Way too much is the new norm."

 

Yeah, it's been the new norm ever since the start of FA except during times of collusion. Players make what owners are willing to pay in a competitive market.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed.

 

"Way too much is the new norm."

 

Yeah, it's been the new norm ever since the start of FA except during times of collusion. Players make what owners are willing to pay in a competitive market.

 

But as Bellhorn keeps saying, some starting pitchers have been available on thoroughly reasonable deals the last 3 offseasons, and the Sox have been on the sidelines for those too.

[moonslav59]

Is there any indication we offered Moto $300M?

 

I'm not sure. I thought I saw it somewhere.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure. I thought I saw it somewhere.

 

That was the Marino Pepen rumor that was swiftly debunked.

[moonslav59]

Every single year people say the prices are too high and I always say that's the market, and then the next year salaries just keep going up and up and up.

 

Anything, ANYTHING, is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it. Mutliple teams offered Yamamoto over $300 million, that's the going rate for young high caliber pitchers. He's also younger, so Snell, Montgomery will probably get signinficantly less. $100 million is significantly less. I think both those guys are getting around $200 plus.

 

Of course some will say "well lets just trade for a guy" ok....lets give up Mayer/Anthony + for a guy that we are just going to have to pay over $200 million. Corbin Burnes has publicly stated he plans on going to FA, Betts did the same thing but thats' because money talks, him and his agen have a dollar figure in mind. I wonder if anyone is willing to bet that number is less than $250 million????

 

This is the price of admission. Most of us aren't living on this island anymore, but no one can really be angry at the Sox for not getting any quality pitchers AND complain about the price of free agent contracts.

 

I'm moving on to Montgomery + Giolito.

 

It makes no sense to trade for a top pitcher, then extend him at market rates. Just overpay for a FA, now. (Monty or Snell plus one from Imanaga, Stroman, Giolito or perhaps Bauer/Montas/Clevinger.)

 

Once Monty and Snell are gone, I'm in sell-off/ punt mode.

[Bellhorn04]

Giolito has absolutely sucked the last 2 seasons. Wacha has been much better than Giolito.

 

I'll puke if they sign Giolito.

[moonslav59]

But as Bellhorn keeps saying, some starting pitchers have been available on thoroughly reasonable deals the last 3 offseasons, and the Sox have been on the sidelines for those too.

 

I'm with you, Bell.

 

Two from ERod, Gray and Lugo would have given us some hope.

 

It's not pie-in-the-s9ky to think we could have afforded 2-3 from:

ERod

Gray

Lugo

Imanaga

Stroman

Giolito

(maybe a couple others)

 

While 2-3 of these guys (plus Monty and Snell) are still available, we technically still have a chance, but who here believes we pull it off?

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox front office has become a joke. It's no wonder so many people didn't want to interview for the CBO position.

[Bellhorn04]

Every single year people say the prices are too high and I always say that's the market, and then the next year salaries just keep going up and up and up.

 

Anything, ANYTHING, is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it.

 

I disagree in principle. The fact someone paid X for something doesn't mean it's "worth" that much. The baseball free agent market can be an irrational market. Some signings are bargains (like Senga in 2022), and some are irrational overpays (like Bogaerts in 2022).

 

Rusney Castillo was not "worth" 73 million because he was paid that much. Bad scouting and bad decision-making were the reasons.

[moonslav59]

I disagree in principle. The fact someone paid X for something doesn't mean it's "worth" that much. The baseball free agent market can be an irrational market. Some signings are bargains (like Senga in 2022), and some are irrational overpays (like Bogaerts in 2022).

 

Rusney Castillo was not "worth" 73 million because he was paid that much. Bad scouting and bad decision-making were the reasons.

 

It seems most of the largest signings never earned their pay. Several never came close.

 

Some had limited success, but overall, did not meet expectations.

[mvp 78]

But as Bellhorn keeps saying, some starting pitchers have been available on thoroughly reasonable deals the last 3 offseasons, and the Sox have been on the sidelines for those too.

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[mvp 78]

That was the Marino Pepen rumor that was swiftly debunked.

 

The tinfoil hat and heavy scent of whiskey should have given it away, but we were rubes...

[mvp 78]

Giolito has absolutely sucked the last 2 seasons. Wacha has been much better than Giolito.

 

I'll puke if they sign Giolito.

 

Before leaving CHW last year:

 

121 Innings, 3.79 ERA, 4.34 xFIP

 

His wife filed for divorce July 2023. This may have played a role in his dismal second half.

[mvp 78]

I'm with you, Bell.

 

Two from ERod, Gray and Lugo would have given us some hope.

 

It's not pie-in-the-s9ky to think we could have afforded 2-3 from:

ERod

Gray

Lugo

Imanaga

Stroman

Giolito

(maybe a couple others)

 

While 2-3 of these guys (plus Monty and Snell) are still available, we technically still have a chance, but who here believes we pull it off?

 

Lugo is a 34 year old who has only 64 career starts. How would he really give us HOPE if he signed here. C'mon man! That's just sour grapes....

[mvp 78]

I disagree in principle. The fact someone paid X for something doesn't mean it's "worth" that much. The baseball free agent market can be an irrational market. Some signings are bargains (like Senga in 2022), and some are irrational overpays (like Bogaerts in 2022).

 

Rusney Castillo was not "worth" 73 million because he was paid that much. Bad scouting and bad decision-making were the reasons.

 

If there is one team offering an overpay like Xander, yeah it's an overpay. If a bunch of teams are offering about the same price like Yamamoto, it's no longer an overpay. That's just the market.

[mvp 78]

It seems most of the largest signings never earned their pay. Several never came close.

 

Some had limited success, but overall, did not meet expectations.

 

There's the John Henry quotes we were looking for earlier!