A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 starters, a decent DH and a 2b. That is really it. You can get the last two for low money. Big money is the first 2. It isn't hard. Pen should be good. Lineup needs tweaks but should be good. Rotation blows

 

We have 6 everyday players who can hit and not defend. We don’t need a DH.

 

Devers

Casas

Yoshida

Duran

Refsnyder

EValdez

[moonslav59]

They need more than that. Moto goes to the 1, Bello to the 2. The rest is a crap shoot.

 

We need 3, but adding 2 solid pitchers might be enough.

 

3. Bello

4. Sale or Houck

5. Pivetta or Crawford

[Bellhorn04]

We need 3, but adding 2 solid pitchers might be enough.

 

3. Bello

4. Sale or Houck

5. Pivetta or Crawford

 

Sale, Crawford and Pivetta all mustered about 2 fWAR last year, which makes you a "number 3" by definition. Add in Bello and we had 4 "number 3"'s, unfortunately, we had no better.

[Old Red]

Yamamoto is a big time gamble. What Japanese starting pitcher was the most successful in MLB? Tanaka?

 

Let’s remember that pitchers in Japan pretty much only pitch once a week, and the most games Yamamoto has started is 26. They throw more pitches, and more innings per start, so it’s pretty much an unknown what they will do when they get over here. A five year deal for any SP is a risk, and the longer the contract the more the risk 25yrs old, or not.

[moonslav59]

Yamamoto is a big time gamble. What Japanese starting pitcher was the most successful in MLB? Tanaka?

 

The sample size of Japanese pitchers in MLB in their primes has certainly grown over the years, but it still pales compared to US and Latin American grown SP'ers. We'd need a percentage of success rate to see how much the country of birth adds to the risk factor.

 

The Japanese leagues have improved since Nomo and Dice-K. The scouting has improved, there, too.

 

No doubt, Yamo is a hug gamble. His age makes him very unique.

 

In the last 30 years (1994-2023,) here are the top fWAR ranked Japanese SP'ers and their rankings:

 

49. Darvish 34.4

83. Nomo 27.5 (there might be 830 US born pitchers to 1 Japanese born pitcher in MLB since '94. Okay, that is likely hyperbole.)

109. Kuoda 22.4

(138. Ryu 20.0+ is from Korea, if we want to pivot to Asian pitchers.)

154. Tanaka 18.8 (Basically, about 1 in 40 of the top SP'ers- in the last 30 years are from Japan. 1 in 30 are from Asia.)

 

231. Maeda 14.3+

283. Ohtani 11.8+

(286. W-Y Chen 11.7 from Taiwan)

290. Sirotka 11.4

301. Ohka 10.9 (7 in the top 300.)

(C-M Wang 10.1 from Taiwan)

353. Dice-K 8.7

 

I might have missed some, as I just scrolled through the fangraphs' list.

 

Since much of total career WAR is based on IP, starting their MLB careers laters than other nationalities must factor into lower WAR numbers- career.

 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2023 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

For the most part the Japanese starters have done quite well in MLB, with the exceptions of Irabu and Igawa.

 

As I've said I think Dice-K's arm was destroyed by abuse, or he might have had a much better MLB career.

[notin]

For the most part the Japanese starters have done quite well in MLB, with the exceptions of Irabu and Igawa.

 

As I've said I think Dice-K's arm was destroyed by abuse, or he might have had a much better MLB career.

 

And Kohei Arihara. But hey, they weren’t all stars in Japan either..

[moonslav59]

Sale, Crawford and Pivetta all mustered about 2 fWAR last year, which makes you a "number 3" by definition. Add in Bello and we had 4 "number 3"'s, unfortunately, we had no better.

 

Agreed.

 

I've argued for years that Pivetta is one of MLBs best #5s. The problem is, he's had to be out #3 for too long.

 

I've never been one to think stacking a team with #3's to 4's is a winning strategy, but if we add two solid SP's and make Bello our #3, I'm fine with having 4-5 guys with "3-4" profiles fighting for the 4-5 slots.

 

I know the whole numbering of slots bothers some, and out of those who don't mind the concept, there is a wide disparity on how to determine who is a #1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, but based on the 450 SP'ers who had more than 80 IP in a specific season from 2021 to 2023, here is how their fWARs broke down by slots.

 

3 seasons x 30 SP'ers (1 per team) = grouped by 90's and Split Seasons

 

#1: 3.3 to 7.5

#2: 2.1 to 3.3

#3: 1.3 to 2.1

#4: 0.6 to 1.3

#5: negative fWAR to 0.6

Thus is the state of MLB rotations, these days, on average.

 

Top Sox fWARs by SP'ers since 2021 (60+ IP)

 

#1 seasons: 2

5.7 Nate in '21

3.9 ERod in '21

 

#2's: 3

2.2 Pivetta in '21 (It's no wonder '21 was the year we did well.)

2.2 Crawford '23

2.1 Sale '23

 

#3's: 4

1.8 Hill '22

1.6 Bello '23

1.5 Wacha '22

1.5 Pivetta '22 (Note how Pivetta is the only repeat pitcher in the top 10.)

 

#4s: 5

1.0 Houck '23

1.0 Nate '22

1.0 Paxton '23

1.0 Pivetta '23 (3 seasons in the top 11 on the team)

0.6 Perez '21

 

#5's: too many to count

0.5 Richards '21

0.4 Crawford '22

0.0 Winck '22

 

So, in the last 3 seasons, we have seen these comparative performances:

 

2 number 1s

3 number 2s

4 number 3s

5 number 4s

3+ number 5s

 

Per season averages:

1 number 1 or 2

1 number 3

2 number 4s

1+ number 5s

 

We basically had an extra #4 and no #1.

[Larry Cook]

Does pivetta make more sense as a long guy in the bullpen??? Wouldn’t wacha be a better 5th starter

[moonslav59]

For the most part the Japanese starters have done quite well in MLB, with the exceptions of Irabu and Igawa.

 

As I've said I think Dice-K's arm was destroyed by abuse, or he might have had a much better MLB career.

 

The change in routine might have hurt, too.

[moonslav59]

Does pivetta make more sense as a long guy in the bullpen??? Wouldn’t wacha be a better 5th starter

 

I'm really not one to think improving a rotation by upgrading your #5 is worth the resources.

 

I'd prefer to add a #1 or 2 and push our current #4 into the 5 slot.

 

I do see Wacha as a #3-4, so he would not be a bad addition, especially if he was our #5, but we'd have to add 2 better pitchers plus him to make him the 5.

 

1. Yamo

2. Monty

3. Bello

4. Sale (Houck/Crawford)

5. Wacha

 

Out of Houck, Crawford, Pivetta and Whitlock, the decision on who starts is not easy. The less we have to use in te rotation the better for the rotation AND the pen.

 

I think Whitlock is my first choice for total pen duty. We need to keep him healthy and hope he can return to what he gave us back in 2021.

 

Crawford and Houck are neck and neck for my second pen choice. I think Crawford can go deeper in starts, but Houck can do better over the first 18 batters. Assuming we add two inning eater SP'ers and with the pen as deep and strong as it should be, I'd start Houck and go with Crawford in the pen.

 

Pivetta is my first choice, out of these 4 to start. He gives innings and has been a pretty good #5 in all 3 seasons with us. He's had 3 of the team's top 11 fWARs as a SP'er since 2021. That's 3 years and 15 rotation slots.

 

[notin]

Does pivetta make more sense as a long guy in the bullpen??? Wouldn’t wacha be a better 5th starter

 

Wacha has been looking for $15mill AAV for 2 years now. Is $15mill the new price for a #5?

[Bellhorn04]

Wacha has been looking for $15mill AAV for 2 years now. Is $15mill the new price for a #5?

 

FanGraphs says he was worth $33.2 million over the last 2 years?

[notin]

FanGraphs says he was worth $33.2 million over the last 2 years?

 

And yet no GM in MLB makes him that offer - multiple have turned him down. The best he got last year was his $15mill AAV option years on a cheap “prove it” deal that turned out to be about what Boston paid him.

 

Wacha carries a lot of injury risk, and no one seems willing to commit to him…

Edited December 2, 2023 by notin

[sk7326]

For the most part the Japanese starters have done quite well in MLB, with the exceptions of Irabu and Igawa.

 

As I've said I think Dice-K's arm was destroyed by abuse, or he might have had a much better MLB career.

 

The abuse hurt ... but his unwillingness to pitch to contact was something that never got resolved in his US career.

[Old Red]

Wacha has been looking for $15mill AAV for 2 years now. Is $15mill the new price for a #5?

 

All of these FA pitchers are over hyped, and over paid just, because they are FA, and available. Sunny Gray got a 3/yr $75M contract, and he had never made more than a little over $10M before, so now at age 34 is he so much better that he’s worth $25M per? Pass for me.

[notin]

All of these FA pitchers are over hyped, and over paid just, because they are FA, and available. Sunny Gray got a 3/yr $75M contract, and he had never made more than a little over $10M before, so now at age 34 is he so much better that he’s worth $25M per? Pass for me.

 

Allegedly Breslow is exploring the trade market. Although he’s not actually connected to any pitchers that are available…

[Bellhorn04]

All of these FA pitchers are over hyped, and over paid just, because they are FA, and available. Sunny Gray got a 3/yr $75M contract, and he had never made more than a little over $10M before, so now at age 34 is he so much better that he’s worth $25M per? Pass for me.

 

And if we pass on all the overpays, you'll be looking at the same rotation as last year's.

[Old Red]

And if we pass on all the overpays, you'll be looking at the same rotation as last year's.

 

I’ve been saying all along make some trades for some younger starters even if it means a prospect, or two. Do you really want to give Monty, or Snell a 5-7yr contract at $100M-$200M?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And if we pass on all the overpays, you'll be looking at the same rotation as last year's.

 

Unless someone is complete damaged goods -- which is highly unlikely with modern due diligence on medicals -- free agents are really just pays...

 

The biggest mistake media or fans (who care) make when dissecting contracts is obsessing over the years; no player is ever literally paid to produce for the entire contract, because all GMs and depts. know attrition is inevitable with age.

 

Some clubs will always pay big for the front end of long contracts because they want to be good now.

[Bellhorn04]

And yet no GM in MLB makes him that offer - multiple have turned him down. The best he got last year was his $15mill AAV option years on a cheap “prove it” deal that turned out to be about what Boston paid him.

 

Wacha carries a lot of injury risk, and no one seems willing to commit to him…

 

OTOH the last two teams that signed him got good value for their money.

[dgalehouse]

Maybe it would be better to build your pitching staff with young fireballers , instead of spending so much of your payroll on so called number 1's or 2's , who could just as easily blow out their arms . Spend the big bucks on the great every day stars. Just an idle thought.

[notin]

OTOH the last two teams that signed him got good value for their money.

 

And both thanked him and sent him on his way…

[Bellhorn04]

I’ve been saying all along make some trades for some younger starters even if it means a prospect, or two. Do you really want to give Monty, or Snell a 5-7yr contract at $100M-$200M?

 

I'm all for a good trade. But let's say they trade for Burnes. He's only got one year left on his contract, so you'd probably have to overpay him to get him to sign an extension.

 

And of course to trade for a good pitcher who has years of control left, you have to part with serious prospect capital.

 

There are no cheap ways to get good pitchers.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

Maybe it would be better to build your pitching staff with young fireballers , instead of spending so much of your payroll on so called number 1's or 2's , who could just as easily blow out their arms . Spend the big bucks on the great every day stars. Just an idle thought.

 

In this age, an 8 man lockdown bullpen might be a better use as well…

[notin]

I'm all for a good trade. But let's say they trade for Burnes. He's only got one year left on his contract, so you'd probably have to overpay him.

 

And of course to trade for a good pitcher who has years of control left, you have to part with serious prospect capital.

 

There are no cheap ways to get good pitchers.

 

Grow them yourself…

[dgalehouse]

In this age, an 8 man lockdown bullpen might be a better use as well…

 

Yes. The game has changed.

[Bellhorn04]

And both thanked him and sent him on his way…

 

He'll get signed again this year. Probably for something like Maeda got. Why wouldn't he be just as appealing an option as Maeda?

[Bellhorn04]

Grow them yourself…

 

Yes, we've discussed that quite a bit here...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Grow them yourself…

 

And yet, that's never been the plan in Boston this century, in the Land of Buchholz (the Sox' last homegrown All-Star starter).

 

Wonder: if Leiter was still on the board in '21, do the Sox take him over Mayer? Texas did, and instead of drafting a guy described to have Seager-like talent, the Rangers signed the real Seager...