A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

Wasn't Blaze the big fish we wanted so bad that we drafted Yorke about 100 spots above his draft ranking?? I slammed that pick at the time and nothing has happened to change my mind since.

 

I don’t think drafting Yorke has anything to do with taking Blaze. They took Yorke earlier than most scouts had him because they liked something about Yorke but didn’t have a second round pick and didn’t think he would last until their third round pick…

[Randy Red Sox]

I don’t think drafting Yorke has anything to do with taking Blaze. They took Yorke earlier than most scouts had him because they liked something about Yorke but didn’t have a second round pick and didn’t think he would last until their third round pick…

 

i recall that there was something about slot money and that drafting Yorke would leave more of it for Jordan--the home run derby champ.

[moonslav59]

i recall that there was something about slot money and that drafting Yorke would leave more of it for Jordan--the home run derby champ.

 

Yorke did sign for $2.7M ($900K below slot)

Jordan did sin for $1.75M (about $1.1M above slot)

I'm not sure any team can plan 2 draft picks 2 rounds apart, but the numbers match your theory.

 

Hey, at least neither is a SS!!!!

[Randy Red Sox]

Yorke did sign for $2.7M ($900K below slot)

Jordan did sin for $1.75M (about $1.1M above slot)

I'm not sure any team can plan 2 draft picks 2 rounds apart, but the numbers match your theory.

 

Hey, at least neither is a SS!!!!

 

that is pretty close to what I recall

[notin]

i recall that there was something about slot money and that drafting Yorke would leave more of it for Jordan--the home run derby champ.

 

That’s possibly a factor, but that kind of thing happens every year…

[moonslav59]

that is pretty close to what I recall

 

It does not appear to be Bloom's best draft, but it was the Covid year, we did not have high picks, there were only 5 rounds, and we lost the 2nd pick due to sign stealing, which was before Bloom's tenure.

 

Current rankings by draft:

 

Red= top 20

 

2020

6. Yorke (1st round)

15. Drohan (5th round) $236K over slot, too

19. Jordan (3rd round)

NR Wu-Yelland (4th)

 

2021

2. Mayer (1st)

16. Hickey (5th) $600K overslot

23. Dobbins (8th)

24. E R-C (4th)

25. Guerrero (17th)

33. Troye (12th)

NR Sikes (18th)

NR Uberstine (19th)

NR Kavadas (11th)

 

2022

1. Anthony (2nd Comp) $1.6M overslot

12. Meidroth (5th)

18. Romero (1st)

28. Hoppe (6th) $230K overslot

34. Rogers (3rd)

35. Brannon (9th) $550K overslot

37. C Coffey (2nd)

44. I Coffey (10th) $143K underslot

59. Mullins (12th)

 

2023

3. Teal (1st) $660K underslot

11. Zanetello (2nd) $1.3M overslot

22. Anderson (3rd) $650K overslot

45. K Campbell (4th Comp)

48. J Riemer (4th Comp)

56. C Early (5th)

[moonslav59]

Apparently, the Sox were not "in on" Nola or Gray and are not "in on" Cease trade talks, either.

 

They have been linked to Yamo, Snell & Monty, while reportedly seeking to trade for a top SP, perhaps Burnes, Bieber or Glasnow.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/latest-on-red-soxs-pitching-targets.html

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Apparently, the Sox were not "in on" Nola or Gray and are not "in on" Cease trade talks, either.

 

They have been linked to Yamo, Snell & Monty, while reportedly seeking to trade for a top SP, perhaps Burnes, Bieber or Glasnow.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/latest-on-red-soxs-pitching-targets.html

 

Thanks for the link. Thoughts: Brez is looking for swing-and-miss pitchers; Nola and Gray are more pitch-to-crappy-contact and thus, guys who would've relied-on-crappier-Red Sox D.

 

Glasnow and Snell have more elite stuff (and obviously more MLB-proven than Yamamoto). I think Brez and Bailey have to land one of those two.

 

Montgomery/Burnes is Homer's boss and consistently greedy, always looking for more outs. Also covet one of those two (even if Smithers isn't part of negotiations).

 

The two new Boston starters won't both come from trades, however, because Brez won't liquidate the farm. So expect one trade, one free agent signing.

 

Which combo do you prefer -- A: Snell and Burnes... or B: Glasnow and Montgomery? I'll take either, but am leaning to A... mainly, because I don't want to see Duran or Rafaela haunting us from Tampa until 2030 (when we could reacquire them).

[mvp 78]

Wasn't Blaze the big fish we wanted so bad that we drafted Yorke about 100 spots above his draft ranking?? I slammed that pick at the time and nothing has happened to change my mind since.

 

No, they drafted Yorke early to spend bigger later. They had no clue that Blaze would still be around then. It could have been any number of big $ prospects in that spot.

[mvp 78]

Thanks for the link. Thoughts: Brez is looking for swing-and-miss pitchers; Nola and Gray are more pitch-to-crappy-contact and thus, guys who would've relied-on-crappier-Red Sox D.

 

Glasnow and Snell have more elite stuff (and obviously more MLB-proven than Yamamoto). I think Brez and Bailey have to land one of those two.

 

Montgomery/Burnes is Homer's boss and consistently greedy, always looking for more outs. Also covet one of those two (even if Smithers isn't part of negotiations).

 

The two new Boston starters won't both come from trades, however, because Brez won't liquidate the farm. So expect one trade, one free agent signing.

 

Which combo do you prefer -- A: Snell and Burnes... or B: Glasnow and Montgomery? I'll take either, but am leaning to A... mainly, because I don't want to see Duran or Rafaela haunting us from Tampa until 2030 (when we could reacquire them).

 

Snell has had 2 CY seasons and a bunch of other years where he can't break 130 innings. I don't want him at all. Can we do Burnes and Monty?

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the link. Thoughts: Brez is looking for swing-and-miss pitchers; Nola and Gray are more pitch-to-crappy-contact and thus, guys who would've relied-on-crappier-Red Sox D.

 

Glasnow and Snell have more elite stuff (and obviously more MLB-proven than Yamamoto). I think Brez and Bailey have to land one of those two.

 

Montgomery/Burnes is Homer's boss and consistently greedy, always looking for more outs. Also covet one of those two (even if Smithers isn't part of negotiations).

 

The two new Boston starters won't both come from trades, however, because Brez won't liquidate the farm. So expect one trade, one free agent signing.

 

Which combo do you prefer -- A: Snell and Burnes... or B: Glasnow and Montgomery? I'll take either, but am leaning to A... mainly, because I don't want to see Duran or Rafaela haunting us from Tampa until 2030 (when we could reacquire them).

 

I'd lean towards A, too, but it's close. I'd prefer Monty and Burnes.

 

I seem to be the board's pessimist, this winter. My guess is, we get E Cabrera via trade and sign Seth Lugo.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Snell has had 2 CY seasons and a bunch of other years where he can't break 130 innings. I don't want him at all. Can we do Burnes and Monty?

 

I actually think that combo is the most likely to become Red Sox pitchers. However, Brez and Drew Bailey will have their work cut out for them to turn the rotation into lights-out K-men...

[Bellhorn04]

Montgomery-Burnes.

 

D'oh!

[notin]

Snell has had 2 CY seasons and a bunch of other years where he can't break 130 innings. I don't want him at all. Can we do Burnes and Monty?

 

I agree the one free agent/one trade is probably more likely than 2 free agents. Both Burnes and Montgomery work. I also don’t see a big difference between Montgomery and Stroman. So that combo works for me.

 

But what to give up for Burnes? Whether or not one agrees with BTV, it’s probably accurate in saying the oft-mentioned Yorke won’t be enough. Duran matches up nicely, but Milwaukee has two young outfielders (Mitchell and Frelick) along side the immovable Yelich filling his position. Bleis is also a close match, but is also an outfielder and possibly too far away.

 

I’d hope one year of Burnes doesn’t cost Mayer or Anthony. And certainly not Bello. So who?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Montgomery-Burnes.

 

D'oh!

 

Not ascared of any Homer. But watch out the new pitching coach doesn't recruit Bart, now that his namesake took over in San Fran as #1 catcher...

[moonslav59]

I agree the one free agent/one trade is probably more likely than 2 free agents. Both Burnes and Montgomery work. I also don’t see a big difference between Montgomery and Stroman. So that combo works for me.

 

But what to give up for Burnes? Whether or not one agrees with BTV, it’s probably accurate in saying the oft-mentioned Yorke won’t be enough. Duran matches up nicely, but Milwaukee has two young outfielders (Mitchell and Frelick) along side the immovable Yelich filling his position. Bleis is also a close match, but is also an outfielder and possibly too far away.

 

I’d hope one year of Burnes doesn’t cost Mayer or Anthony. And certainly not Bello. So who?

 

Bleis is probably too far away to be a major Brewer target, so maybe Duran plus another significant player.

 

BTV values:

60 Mayer

42 Anthony (I'd rather trade Mayer than Anthony or Teel.)

38 Casas

34 Bello

30 Duran

29 Bleis

27 Crawford

20 Houck

18 Teel

17 Yorke

17 Rafaela

14 Schreiber

12 Whitlock

11 Wink

 

BTV has Burnes at 38.4, so a trade of Duran + Wink fits, or ....

 

Rafaela + Yorke (maybe the best offer)

Duran, EValdez + Drohan

Duran, Perales + Meidroth

 

Not sure MIL accepts any of these.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Bleis is probably too far away to be a major Brewer target, so maybe Duran plus another significant player.

 

BTV values:

60 Mayer

42 Anthony (I'd rather trade Mayer than Anthony or Teel.)

38 Casas

34 Bello

30 Duran

29 Bleis

27 Crawford

20 Houck

18 Teel

17 Yorke

17 Rafaela

14 Schreiber

12 Whitlock

11 Wink

 

BTV has Burnes at 38.4, so a trade of Duran + Wink fits, or ....

 

Rafaela + Yorke (maybe the best offer)

Duran, EValdez + Drohan

Duran, Perales + Meidroth

 

Not sure MIL accepts any of these.

 

 

 

Correction: Burnes has a BTV of 32.0 not 38.4.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bleis is probably too far away to be a major Brewer target, so maybe Duran plus another significant player.

 

BTV values:

60 Mayer

42 Anthony (I'd rather trade Mayer than Anthony or Teel.)

38 Casas

34 Bello

30 Duran

29 Bleis

27 Crawford

20 Houck

18 Teel

17 Yorke

17 Rafaela

14 Schreiber

12 Whitlock

11 Wink

 

BTV has Burnes at 38.4, so a trade of Duran + Wink fits, or ....

 

Rafaela + Yorke (maybe the best offer)

Duran, EValdez + Drohan

Duran, Perales + Meidroth

 

Not sure MIL accepts any of these.

 

 

 

Do the Brewers really need a young outfielder or a shortstop to replace impending free agent Adames? It would make sense if the Brewers are losing Woodruff, Burnes, maybe even Williams, that they'd want back pitching. If the Sox want Burnes, better prepare to flip Perales and/or Gonzalez...

[moonslav59]

Do the Brewers really need a young outfielder or a shortstop to replace impending free agent Adames? It would make sense if the Brewers are losing Woodruff, Burnes, maybe even Williams, that they'd want back pitching. If the Sox want Burnes, better prepare to flip Perales and/or Gonzalez...

 

Yorke and EValdez play 2B not SS.

 

They may be looking to trade Yelich, next, so maybe they want Duran or Rafaela.

[notin]

Do the Brewers really need a young outfielder or a shortstop to replace impending free agent Adames? It would make sense if the Brewers are losing Woodruff, Burnes, maybe even Williams, that they'd want back pitching. If the Sox want Burnes, better prepare to flip Perales and/or Gonzalez...

 

I’d say no on young outfielders, given they have Mitchell, Wiener and Frelick. SS depends on how they feel about Brice Turang…

Edited November 28, 2023 by notin

[mvp 78]

Montgomery-Burnes.

 

D'oh!

 

Excellent...

[moonslav59]

I’d say no on young outfielders, given they have Mitchell, Wiener and Frelick. SS depends on how they feel about Brice Turang…

 

I don't know much about their 3 young OF'ers, but none had very good numbers in MLB in 2023, and the chances that all 3 do well is not great.

 

I think they'd want Rafaela or maybe Duran.

 

I'm not sure about Yorke.

 

It's hard to know how much GMs value Wikelman, Perales, Drohan or Mata.

[mvp 78]

I agree the one free agent/one trade is probably more likely than 2 free agents. Both Burnes and Montgomery work. I also don’t see a big difference between Montgomery and Stroman. So that combo works for me.

 

But what to give up for Burnes? Whether or not one agrees with BTV, it’s probably accurate in saying the oft-mentioned Yorke won’t be enough. Duran matches up nicely, but Milwaukee has two young outfielders (Mitchell and Frelick) along side the immovable Yelich filling his position. Bleis is also a close match, but is also an outfielder and possibly too far away.

 

I’d hope one year of Burnes doesn’t cost Mayer or Anthony. And certainly not Bello. So who?

 

Kutter and Whitlock for Burnes.

[moonslav59]

Kutter and Whitlock for Burnes.

 

I think MIL takes that deal.

 

I'd prefer Yorke and one of Cutter/Whitlock.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Brez pivots to Rodriguez, maybe it's not ERod.

 

Maybe its YArod...

 

[notin]

Kutter and Whitlock for Burnes.

 

Certainly has potential…

[mvp 78]

If Brez pivots to Rodriguez, maybe it's not ERod.

 

Maybe its YArod...

 

 

He's a reliever. Not sure it's a great fit when they've already tried that with Whitlock and Houck as tweeners.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He's a reliever. Not sure it's a great fit when they've already tried that with Whitlock and Houck as tweeners.

 

The only thing I know about Bailey as a pitching coach is what the media tells us the past month: that he greatly improved the San Fran staff in his years there.

 

But without going into a deep dive, I looked the 2023 Giants' stats: they literally had a three-man starting rotation -- three full-time starters who started 33, 28 and 19 games (that basically covers half their season schedule). But they had five others who were primarily relievers who started 10, 10, 11, 12, and 13.

 

In comparison, the '23 Red Sox with their doomed blooming openers featured five guys who started at least 19, plus swingman Pivetta, who started 16.

 

The word on YeahRod is that some interested MLB teams want him to start.

[moonslav59]

He's a reliever. Not sure it's a great fit when they've already tried that with Whitlock and Houck as tweeners.

 

Agreed. MLBTR had this, however...

 

Evaluators who have seen Rodriguez suggest he could stick as a starting pitcher, with one indicating he could command between $30MM and $50MM as a free agent. While MLBTR was able to talk to one evaluator who backed that assessment up, information has otherwise been scant on Rodriguez so far this offseason.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. MLBTR had this, however...

 

Evaluators who have seen Rodriguez suggest he could stick as a starting pitcher, with one indicating he could command between $30MM and $50MM as a free agent. While MLBTR was able to talk to one evaluator who backed that assessment up, information has otherwise been scant on Rodriguez so far this offseason.

 

"COULD" stick as a starting pitcher. How is that any different than what they tried with Houck or Whitlock. We though either of them COULD have stuck as a starter too. And for 50M? No.