A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Oscars]

I'm pretty sure nearly all of us view the rotation as our highest need area for 2024. The need for 2 or 3 has been debated, and it seems unlikely we add 3 significant SP'ers, this winter. (I'd love to see it, as it would make our pen one of the best in MLB, but I think it is a long shot hope.)

 

IMO, these are our highest need areas, this winter- listed in order of highest need:

 

1. SP1

2. SP2

3. Power RHB (CF, 2B or RF, if we trade Dugo)

4. 2B or CF/RF (whichever #3 does not fill.)

5. SP3

6. LH RP

(Upgrade C or the last of the 3 slots mentioned in #3 and #4.)

 

If we have $45-50M to spend, things will be way too tight to meet most of these needs, unless we make a big prospect trade.

If we have $65-70M to spend to stay under the second tax line, we might be able to pull it off by filling 4-5 of these 6 slots with quality players or 3-4 with quality and 2-3 with decent upgrades- filling all 6 slots.)

 

FA signings might be...

1. Gray

2. Montgomery

3. Duvall

4. Merrifield/A Frazier

5. Wacha

6. Nick Martinez/Wandy Peralta

 

I doubt we can get all this for $70M. Either we go over the $70M mark, make a big prospect trade, sign lesser cost players or fill just 3-5 of these slots.

 

 

Could the Sox trade Yoshida for pennies on the dollar just to get him off the roster, as he doesn’t offer any value in the field, and his bat isn’t good enough for DH ?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Could the Sox trade Yoshida for pennies on the dollar just to get him off the roster, as he doesn’t offer any value in the field, and his bat isn’t good enough for DH ?

 

What's the criteria for a good DH? Yoshida only DHed 49 games, but compare his season numbers to more full-time DHs:

 

2023 DHs (min. 100 games at DH)

OPS- Ohtani 1.066, Ozuna .905, JD .893, Soler .853, Yoshida .783

BA- Ohtani .304, Yoshdia .289, Meneses .275, Ozuna .274, Jimenez .272

HR- Ohtani 44, Ozuna 40, Soler 36, JD 33, Jimenez 18, Yoshida 15

Ks- JD 149, Ohtani 143, Soler 141, Ozuna 134 Meneses 130, Jimenez 93, Yoshida 81

 

... clearly, Masa doesn't homer or whiff enough for the role.

[moonslav59]

If the Red Sox don't want Nick Pivetta at a $6.9 million salary, why would another team want Pivetta at that salary instead of pursuing "top tier starting pitchers"?

 

To address the question: To trim payroll would the Red Sox trade one year of Nick Pivetta at a projected $6.9 million and one year of Alex Verdugo at $9.2 million to the Seattle Mariners for their Round A PPI Draft Pick and 26-year-old outfielder Cade Marlowe?

 

Baseball Trade Values calls it an even trade.

 

Almost every team with a decent payroll would take Pivetta at $7M.

[moonslav59]

Could the Sox trade Yoshida for pennies on the dollar just to get him off the roster, as he doesn’t offer any value in the field, and his bat isn’t good enough for DH ?

 

I think we give him an other half or full season to adjust.

[Bellhorn04]

Is that really what any of us see as "aggressive?"

 

I'd call it the minimum of what we need to see. It does get us a #1 pitcher. Maybe the name Wacha would need to be replaced by Sonny Gray or your guy Morton.

[moonslav59]

I'd call it the minimum of what we need to see. It does get us a #1 pitcher. Maybe the name Wacha would need to be replaced by Sonny Gray or your guy Morton.

 

It would be more aggressive than the past few years, but I guess the term is subjective.

[Bellhorn04]

It would be more aggressive than the past few years, but I guess the term is subjective.

 

Ha, yes, it's crazy subjective. When I saw that particular proposal of yours it looked realistic. Maybe they throw in a trade for good measure.

[Bellhorn04]

What's the criteria for a good DH? Yoshida only DHed 49 games, but compare his season numbers to more full-time DHs:

 

2023 DHs (min. 100 games at DH)

OPS- Ohtani 1.066, Ozuna .905, JD .893, Soler .853, Yoshida .783

BA- Ohtani .304, Yoshdia .289, Meneses .275, Ozuna .274, Jimenez .272

HR- Ohtani 44, Ozuna 40, Soler 36, JD 33, Jimenez 18, Yoshida 15

Ks- JD 149, Ohtani 143, Soler 141, Ozuna 134 Meneses 130, Jimenez 93, Yoshida 81

 

... clearly, Masa doesn't homer or whiff enough for the role.

 

The Red Sox have been blessed with 2 elite DH's in Ortiz and JDM. An OPS of .850 is pretty much the minimum for a guy you're paying big money just to hit.

 

Yoshida was a mediocre DH in 2023. His K rate was very good, but his walk rate fell off terribly over the course of the season, and that was supposed to be a big part of his package.

 

He ended up with an OPS+ of 109.

 

Hopefully we see better next year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox have been blessed with 2 elite DH's in Ortiz and JDM. An OPS of .850 is pretty much the minimum for a guy you're paying big money just to hit.

 

Yoshida was a mediocre DH in 2023. His K rate was very good, but his walk rate fell off terribly over the course of the season, and that was supposed to be a big part of his package.

 

He ended up with an OPS+ of 109.

 

Hopefully we see better next year.

 

I'm not saying Yoshida was a great hitter, just that there weren't too many guys out there that much better. We're going to have to forget about his paychecks (especially now that the guy who signed him is gone) and just anticipate improvement as he makes professional adjustments...

 

... also, I get the value of OBP, but I want my DH swinging at border line pitches, and not be a DW... if he doesn't alway drive the ball but has the talent to make contact, we've seen the virtues of putting the ball in play vs. teams with Red Sox-type defenses.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying Yoshida was a great hitter, just that there weren't too many guys out there that much better. We're going to have to forget about his paychecks (especially now that the guy who signed him is gone) and just anticipate improvement as he makes professional adjustments...

 

... also, I get the value of OBP, but I want my DH swinging at border line pitches, and not be a DW... if he doesn't alway drive the ball but has the talent to make contact, we've seen the virtues of putting the ball in play vs. teams with Red Sox-type defenses.

 

Putting the ball in play is good, but unfortunately Yoshida is also very slow of foot. Which is one of the reasons I really fell out of love with this signing.

[moonslav59]

Ha, yes, it's crazy subjective. When I saw that particular proposal of yours it looked realistic. Maybe they throw in a trade for good measure.

 

That "proposal" was not something I wished we'd do. It was something I think comes close to spending about $50M, maybe including a trade of Dugo and or Urias.

 

If I had $70M to spend, I might go...

 

$28M Yamaoto

$27M Gray

$10M Wacha

$10M Duvall

 

$75M Total

-$9M trade Dugo for LH RP or 2B (if we get a $3-4M 2Bman, we can trade or non tender Urias for another $5M to spend at the deadline, if needed.)

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have been blessed with 2 elite DH's in Ortiz and JDM. An OPS of .850 is pretty much the minimum for a guy you're paying big money just to hit.

 

Yoshida was a mediocre DH in 2023. His K rate was very good, but his walk rate fell off terribly over the course of the season, and that was supposed to be a big part of his package.

 

He ended up with an OPS+ of 109.

 

Hopefully we see better next year.

 

The soxprospects.com podcast seemed to blame the fact that he was primarily a DH in Japan, and that playing him in LF, so much was what wore him down.

 

I'm not say8ing I agree with this, but moving from Japan to the USA is a major cultural shift. Several successful Japanese players took a year or so to adjust and then show better numbers. Perhaps I am being a homer, but I think the guy deserves another season, and if he spends almost all of it at DH, I'm optimistic his numbers will improve- especially the OBP.

[mvp 78]

Could the Sox trade Yoshida for pennies on the dollar just to get him off the roster, as he doesn’t offer any value in the field, and his bat isn’t good enough for DH ?

 

He had a higher wRC+ than Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

[mvp 78]

Masa's OPS was only 17 points behind Justin Turner's.

[Hugh2]

If the Red Sox don't want Nick Pivetta at a $6.9 million salary, why would another team want Pivetta at that salary instead of pursuing "top tier starting pitchers"?

 

To address the question: To trim payroll would the Red Sox trade one year of Nick Pivetta at a projected $6.9 million and one year of Alex Verdugo at $9.2 million to the Seattle Mariners for their Round A PPI Draft Pick and 26-year-old outfielder Cade Marlowe?

 

Baseball Trade Values calls it an even trade.

 

Fair trade on paper, but the Sox could get a pick for just offering Verdugo a QO and get a full year out of him. Marlowe is a nice young player, but the Sox already have a couple young, fringey outfielders who bat left handed. So I'd say no.

[mvp 78]

Fair trade on paper, but the Sox could get a pick for just offering Verdugo a QO and get a full year out of him. Marlowe is a nice young player, but the Sox already have a couple young, fringey outfielders who bat left handed. So I'd say no.

 

If they offer him a QO, he takes it. No way is he getting close to 20M AAV on the open market.

[moonslav59]

If they offer him a QO, he takes it. No way is he getting close to 20M AAV on the open market.

 

Indeed.

 

Just trade him and sign Duvall for close to the same money per year.

[harmony]

Fair trade on paper, but the Sox could get a pick for just offering Verdugo a QO and get a full year out of him. Marlowe is a nice young player, but the Sox already have a couple young, fringey outfielders who bat left handed. So I'd say no.

FWIW in 34 games this season Cade Marlowe posted 0.9 fWAR and a wRC+ of 112 while in 142 games Alex Verdugo posted 2.0 fWAR and a wRC+ of 98.

 

Of course it’s a small sample for Marlowe who comes with six years of team control.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He had a higher wRC+ than Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

 

Pray they get the Lourdes: righty power, plus defense, purple haze... all in my brain.

 

Scuse me, while I eat these fries.

[mvp 78]

FWIW in 34 games this season Cade Marlowe posted 0.9 fWAR and a wRC+ of 112 while in 142 games Alex Verdugo posted 2.0 fWAR and a wRC+ of 98.

 

Of course it’s a small sample for Marlowe who comes with six years of team control.

 

A 26 year old who only posted 781 OPS in AAA this year and had a 33% k rate in MLB. Marlowe was SEA's 27th raked prospect last season. Not sure he's an upgrade for the uncertain options the Sox already have in the OF.

[mvp 78]

Pray they get the Lourdes: righty power, plus defense, purple haze... all in my brain.

 

Scuse me, while I eat these fries.

 

Dead pull hitter, but Statcast notes his 27 HR's would decrease to 22 if they were all hit at Fenway.

[Hugh2]

FWIW in 34 games this season Cade Marlowe posted 0.9 fWAR and a wRC+ of 112 while in 142 games Alex Verdugo posted 2.0 fWAR and a wRC+ of 98.

 

Of course it’s a small sample for Marlowe who comes with six years of team control.

 

Sox already have Abreu, Duran, and Rafaella, with the first two being LHB. It's redundancy on the roster for what may end up equating to moving up in the draft a few spots. Verdugo and Pivetta are two guys you may want to keep around if you want to compete. Verdugo adds certainty to a position that has little and offers little in FA and Pivetta has shown he can be a very capable BOTH starter or possibly even elite in the BP. It would be a real head-scratcher for the Sox to make that move, even if it's a fair trade on paper.

[notin]

FWIW in 34 games this season Cade Marlowe posted 0.9 fWAR and a wRC+ of 112 while in 142 games Alex Verdugo posted 2.0 fWAR and a wRC+ of 98.

 

Of course it’s a small sample for Marlowe who comes with six years of team control.

 

Marlowe posted a .781 OPS in the PCL, which translates to roughly a .950 OPS in Little League. This trade would be a poor PR salary dump in which the Sox acquired a borderline LHH outfielder who likely falls behind Wilyer Abreu on the depth chart.

 

Easy pass…

[Hugh2]

If they offer him a QO, he takes it. No way is he getting close to 20M AAV on the open market.

 

 

Eovaldi didn't get 20 million in the open market and he still turned it down.

 

It's not about AAV as much as it's about total dollar. This might be Verdugo's only chance at a payday. If he gets even 40-50 million at a lower AAV than 20 he's taking it. You absolutely offer him a QO, unless he completely lays an egg in 2024.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Marlowe posted a .781 OPS in the PCL, which translates to roughly a .950 OPS in Little League. This trade would be a poor PR salary dump in which the Sox acquired a borderline LHH outfielder who likely falls behind Wilyer Abreu on the depth chart.

 

Easy pass…

 

Only about half a dozen big kids per year even have an OPS in LL; the few younger players who can hit singles aren't strong enough to slug extra base hits, and the rest usually walk or strikeout (most without swinging). But due to walkathons, most Little Leaguers have high OBP... so a .500 OPS, because there is zero PS, actually ain't bad.

[moonslav59]

What are the odds the Sox sign one from:

Yamamoto

Nola

Gray

Snell

 

I'd say 15-20%.

 

How about one from:

Yamamoto, Nola, Gray, Snell

Montgomery, ERod, Morton (1 year)

(I'd say 40-50%.)

 

How about one from the above list plus another from the above list plus Wacha, Giolito or Stroman?

(I'd say about 25-33%.)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If I had to bet money (which I don't have, so I can't), just taking Breslow for his word at his presser, I'd say some sort of prospect blockbuster trade for Burnes or Cease is more likely than blowing his first budget on Ohtani or Yamamoto. That also won't prevent a low-level signing of a Lorenzen, later.

[mvp 78]

Eovaldi didn't get 20 million in the open market and he still turned it down.

 

It's not about AAV as much as it's about total dollar. This might be Verdugo's only chance at a payday. If he gets even 40-50 million at a lower AAV than 20 he's taking it. You absolutely offer him a QO, unless he completely lays an egg in 2024.

 

Eovaldi opted out because he thought he was going to get a much bigger contract, which is why he initially walked away from the Sox contract, but came crawling back asking for them to offer it again.

[mvp 78]

What are the odds the Sox sign one from:

Yamamoto

Nola

Gray

Snell

 

I'd say 15-20%.

 

How about one from:

Yamamoto, Nola, Gray, Snell

Montgomery, ERod, Morton (1 year)

(I'd say 40-50%.)

 

How about one from the above list plus another from the above list plus Wacha, Giolito or Stroman?

(I'd say about 25-33%.)

 

 

I'd say it's 50/50 they sign one of the tippy top guys.

[mvp 78]

If I had to bet money (which I don't have, so I can't), just taking Breslow for his word at his presser, I'd say some sort of prospect blockbuster trade for Burnes or Cease is more likely than blowing his first budget on Ohtani or Yamamoto. That also won't prevent a low-level signing of a Lorenzen, later.

 

Per BTV, Kutter and Houck is fair value for Cease.