A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

It could - but frankly I am more interested now in ripping the band-aid off and seeing what you have instead of more half-measures. If the team brings in a stud though that is a different calculus.

 

Abreu looked good the last time we saw him. We know Rafaela can play defense if we want to hold our nose and just stick him in CF. Duran is still a bit of a mystery as his career has been all over the place.

[moonslav59]

Maybe the 2nd year has some weird option or opt outs or whatever?

 

If a team offers him 2-3 years w/o an option, I think he'd take it, unless he thinks he can stay healthy, have a big year and hit paydirt in '25.

[sk7326]

Abreu looked good the last time we saw him. We know Rafaela can play defense if we want to hold our nose and just stick him in CF. Duran is still a bit of a mystery as his career has been all over the place.

 

We also know Rafaela has some real pop in the bat for a teeny tiny guy. Can he make enough contact (let's just dispense with the idea we are expecting him to walk a whole lot) to keep his glove out there? I think it's certainly possible.

[notin]

Abreu looked good the last time we saw him. We know Rafaela can play defense if we want to hold our nose and just stick him in CF. Duran is still a bit of a mystery as his career has been all over the place.

 

If you had t to name the Sox player most likely to be traded, Duran has to be at or near the top of that list. His best chance at sticking around is if they envision him as an everyday CF, which is possible. And his departure might be even more likely if BTV is right about him having some serious trade value…

[mvp 78]

Jansen

Verdugo

Duran

Abreu

[notin]

Jansen

Verdugo

Duran

Abreu

 

No Martin? He’s entering his age 38 season, has one year left (at $9.5 mill) and not so likely to replicate his 3.2 bWAR performance…

[notin]

You won’t get him for 1 yr again, and I don’t know if two would be good, and definitely not three.

 

No one gave Duvall a multiyear deal last off-season, and he didn’t sign until late January. Now he’s one year older and did nothing to alleviate any concerns about being injury-prone.

 

I don’t think the multiyear offers are going to be there for him…

[Hugh2]

Bader isn't a good option to start because he didn't OPS 600 against RHP last season.

 

So Bader, Duvall, Duran, Abreu and Rafaela won't be starting?

 

Which is exactly why you platoon him. I suspect at least one of the outfield positions is going to be platooned in 2024

[Hugh2]

We also know Rafaela has some real pop in the bat for a teeny tiny guy. Can he make enough contact (let's just dispense with the idea we are expecting him to walk a whole lot) to keep his glove out there? I think it's certainly possible.

 

If the Sox make enough good moves to not need his bat I’d be perfectly fine just batting him 9th and plugging him in the 9 hole.

[moonslav59]

No one gave Duvall a multiyear deal last off-season, and he didn’t sign until late January. Now he’s one year older and did nothing to alleviate any concerns about being injury-prone.

 

I don’t think the multiyear offers are going to be there for him…

 

You don't think hitting .834 OPS in '23 vs the .677 OPS before 2023 might be enough to persuade one GM to offer 2 years?

[moonslav59]

Which is exactly why you platoon him. I suspect at least one of the outfield positions is going to be platooned in 2024

 

Unless we trade or cut Refsnyder, he looks like a lock to be a platoon. Yes, he slumped towards the end of '23, like almost all his teammates, but the guy still has a better OPS vs LHPs 2022-2023 than anyone else on the roster for 2024:

 

90+ PAs '22-'23 w Sox

.900 Turner (not on '24 roster, yet)

.828 Refsnyder

.823 Devers

.817 Casas

.772 Reyes (57 PAs)

.756 Duvall (not on '24 roster, yet)

.746 Yoshida

.501 Wong

 

With these career splits, we may see 2 OF platoons, if we add a RHB OF'er or Rafaela shows he can hit well vs LHP:

Career (some small sample sizes)

vs RHP/vs LHP

.929/.400 Abreu (75 PA v R and 10 PA v L)

.807/.665 Verdugo (2023: .793/.609)

.795/.746 Yoshida (may bs our DH)

.762/.570 Duran (2023: .841/.749)

 

.604/.757 Refsnyder (.466/.828 in '23)

.675/.645 Rafaela (in 62 PAs v R/ 27 PA v L)

 

(FYI: Duvall .760/.770)

 

 

[mvp 78]

No Martin? He’s entering his age 38 season, has one year left (at $9.5 mill) and not so likely to replicate his 3.2 bWAR performance…

 

Don’t trade Martin at the deadline no matter what.

[mvp 78]

You don't think hitting .834 OPS in '23 vs the .677 OPS before 2023 might be enough to persuade one GM to offer 2 years?

 

Doubtful. After two seasons of OPS above 830 and being fully healthier and younger, he only got a two year deal before ‘21. Now, he’s had two straight seasons of being injured, one of which was fairly unproductive offensively.

[notin]

Don’t trade Martin at the deadline no matter what.

 

Even if the Sox are out of it?

 

I do think Breslow should consider a potential off-season move of the 37 year old pitcher coming off a career best season while he still has the full year of control left.

[notin]

You don't think hitting .834 OPS in '23 vs the .677 OPS before 2023 might be enough to persuade one GM to offer 2 years?

 

No.

 

His OPS came in a half a season worth of PA. Why do two years? To actually get a full season out of Duvall?

[mvp 78]

Even if the Sox are out of it?

 

I do think Breslow should consider a potential off-season move of the 37 year old pitcher coming off a career best season while he still has the full year of control left.

 

No matter what.

[notin]

No matter what.

 

What if Martin kidnaps Breslow’s kids and makes a trade a ransom demand? Or what if he gets imprisoned fir one year for insider trading, but another GM is still interested for a reason no one can fathom? What if it turns out Martin is a huge fan of “The Last Airbender” (both movie and anime) and repeatedly annoys people talking about it?

 

Or worse yet - what if he becomes a vegan? Still not trading him?

[mvp 78]

What if Martin kidnaps Breslow’s kids and makes a trade a ransom demand? Or what if he gets imprisoned fir one year for insider trading, but another GM is still interested for a reason no one can fathom? What if it turns out Martin is a huge fan of “The Last Airbender” (both movie and anime) and repeatedly annoys people talking about it?

 

Or worse yet - what if he becomes a vegan? Still not trading him?

 

No matter what.

 

That vegan joke is old enough to go to get a damn job and start paying rent.

[moonslav59]

No.

 

His OPS came in a half a season worth of PA. Why do two years? To actually get a full season out of Duvall?

 

You do two years, so you can get him over the many teams offering him one year.

 

The list of quality OF'ers on the market might be the worst in recent memory.

[notin]

You do two years, so you can get him over the many teams offering him one year.

 

The list of quality OF'ers on the market might be the worst in recent memory.

 

It’s a weak crowd, but Duvall getting two years is still unlikely…

[moonslav59]

It’s a weak crowd, but Duvall getting two years is still unlikely…

 

I think it's close to 50-50. I'd say better than 50-50, but not by much. I project $18-19M/2.

 

Most likely, he gets a 2nd year option, maybe with a $2M buyout.

 

$8.5M 2024 with $9.5M team option- with a $1.5M buyout. Basically, $10M/1 or $18M/2 might get him.

[mvp 78]

I think it's close to 50-50. I'd say better than 50-50, but not by much. I project $18-19M/2.

 

Most likely, he gets a 2nd year option, maybe with a $2M buyout.

 

$8.5M 2024 with $9.5M team option- with a $1.5M buyout. Basically, $10M/1 or $18M/2 might get him.

A team option second year is really a one year deal.

[moonslav59]

A team option second year is really a one year deal.

 

Yes. I know.

 

I think that is the minimum he gets, but I still think the odds are slightly better he gets 2 years.

 

I'm not sure why the odds on 1 or 2 years for Duvall is becoming a long running topic of debate.

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure nearly all of us view the rotation as our highest need area for 2024. The need for 2 or 3 has been debated, and it seems unlikely we add 3 significant SP'ers, this winter. (I'd love to see it, as it would make our pen one of the best in MLB, but I think it is a long shot hope.)

 

IMO, these are our highest need areas, this winter- listed in order of highest need:

 

1. SP1

2. SP2

3. Power RHB (CF, 2B or RF, if we trade Dugo)

4. 2B or CF/RF (whichever #3 does not fill.)

5. SP3

6. LH RP

(Upgrade C or the last of the 3 slots mentioned in #3 and #4.)

 

If we have $45-50M to spend, things will be way too tight to meet most of these needs, unless we make a big prospect trade.

If we have $65-70M to spend to stay under the second tax line, we might be able to pull it off by filling 4-5 of these 6 slots with quality players or 3-4 with quality and 2-3 with decent upgrades- filling all 6 slots.)

 

FA signings might be...

1. Gray

2. Montgomery

3. Duvall

4. Merrifield/A Frazier

5. Wacha

6. Nick Martinez/Wandy Peralta

 

I doubt we can get all this for $70M. Either we go over the $70M mark, make a big prospect trade, sign lesser cost players or fill just 3-5 of these slots.

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

I think it's close to 50-50. I'd say better than 50-50, but not by much. I project $18-19M/2.

 

Most likely, he gets a 2nd year option, maybe with a $2M buyout.

 

$8.5M 2024 with $9.5M team option- with a $1.5M buyout. Basically, $10M/1 or $18M/2 might get him.

 

I don’t think the demand for Duvall is going to be so great that pitching is a necessity. You have to remember that in this weak free agent class for outfielders, Duvall isn’t the line bright spot. He’s closer to being part of the reason it’s weak.

 

Bellinger is clearly top dog. Kiermaier was an All Star last year (although he carries Duvall’s durability concerns). Teoscar Hernandez is overrated, soon to be very wealthy overrated. Jorge Soler can hit.

[Bellhorn04]

Duvall should be in the right price range.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think the demand for Duvall is going to be so great that pitching is a necessity. You have to remember that in this weak free agent class for outfielders, Duvall isn’t the line bright spot. He’s closer to being part of the reason it’s weak.

 

Bellinger is clearly top dog. Kiermaier was an All Star last year (although he carries Duvall’s durability concerns). Teoscar Hernandez is overrated, soon to be very wealthy overrated. Jorge Soler can hit.

 

Duvall is way better than many OF'ers, so teams will want him as an upgrade and pray for health.

 

It happens all the time.

 

Not every team will get the pitcher they need, so they will look for other areas to upgrade... like OF.

 

[notin]

Duvall is way better than many OF'ers, so teams will want him as an upgrade and pray for health.

 

It happens all the time.

 

Not every team will get the pitcher they need, so they will look for other areas to upgrade... like OF.

 

 

 

Duvall will get (possibly) multiple offers. That’s never been the question. Duration is the issue…

[moonslav59]

Duvall will get (possibly) multiple offers. That’s never been the question. Duration is the issue…

 

Yes, I know. This silly debate has gone on way too long.

 

There will be many teams that want him. All will want one year.

 

I think some team will offer him two, so they get him. You and others disagree.

[mvp 78]

Duvall should be in the right price range.

 

MiLB deal?