A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

So, if we add nobody and lose all or FAs to be plus Turner, is this the opening day 26?

 

C: Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas

2B: Urias & Reyes

SS: Story

3B: Devers

LF: Duran & Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela & Abreu

RF: Verdugo

DH: Yoshida

 

SP1: Bello

SP2: Sale

SP3: Crawford

SP4: Pivetta

SP5: Houck

Closer: Jansen

RP2: Martin

RP3: Winckowski

RP4: Schreiber

RP5: Whitlock

RP6: Bernardino

RP7: Murphy

RP8: Mata (out of options) or Kelly

 

 

[moonslav59]

So, if we add nobody and lose all or FAs to be plus Turner, is this the opening day 26?

 

C: Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas

2B: Urias & Reyes

SS: Story

3B: Devers

LF: Duran & Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela & Abreu

RF: Verdugo

DH: Yoshida

 

SP1: Bello

SP2: Sale

SP3: Crawford

SP4: Pivetta

SP5: Houck

Closer: Jansen

RP2: Martin

RP3: Winckowski

RP4: Schreiber

RP5: Whitlock

RP6: Bernardino LHP

RP7: Murphy LHP

RP8: Mata (out of options) or Kelly

 

We could improve more slots on the 26 than I highlighted in RED, but I doubt we try to do it all in one winter. I doubt we even try to greatly improve all the ones in red.

 

Most of the talk has centered on the rotation, and rightly so, but I can imagine a winter where we only add one SP'er and once again, pin our hopes that Bello & Sale hold down the 2-3 slots and someone from Crawford, Pivetta and Houck fill in the 4-5 slots. It's no secret I'd like to see us add 2 solid SP'ers and a decent #4 type, but in reality, hoping for just 2 solid SP'ers may be a pipedream.

 

With the money we have to spend and still not go over the tax line, IMO, it should not be a pipedream.

[notin]

We still have no idea. Breslow could trade a lot of people we don’t think of as moving. Bloom certainly would do that. No one saw trading Benintendi. Or Renfroe.

 

If he does do some dealing, Jansen and Martin (sell high?) are potential candidates, seeing as to how n both have one year left. Ditto Verdugo for the same reason. Duran as well, simply because the OF is crowded and he might want to get a RH bat that has to play somewhere.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them moved. But I would be if they all did.

 

That is the downside to Breslow. As he has no history, we have nothing to base anything on. But I doubt he sticks so much to the status quo…

[moonslav59]

We still have no idea. Breslow could trade a lot of people we don’t think of as moving. Bloom certainly would do that. No one saw trading Benintendi. Or Renfroe.

 

If he does do some dealing, Jansen and Martin (sell high?) are potential candidates, seeing as to how n both have one year left. Ditto Verdugo for the same reason. Duran as well, simply because the OF is crowded and he might want to get a RH bat that has to play somewhere.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them moved. But I would be if they all did.

 

That is the downside to Breslow. As he has no history, we have nothing to base anything on. But I doubt he sticks so much to the status quo…

 

I could definitely see us trading Dugo or Duran, but not both, I could see us trying to open up more playing time to Rafaela (RHB) and or Abreu (LHB).

 

I see trading Jansen and Martin as an indicator of "punting" on 2024, because I doubt we can replace them, in kind, at the same cost. Would trading them force Houck and or Whitlock into one or both of those roles?

 

Does Breslow try to walk the line and try to keep the perception we will try to compete in 2024 while dealing all or most one year players, which might also include Sale, someone you did not mention in this last post?

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We could improve more slots on the 26 than I highlighted in RED, but I doubt we try to do it all in one winter. I doubt we even try to greatly improve all the ones in red.

 

Most of the talk has centered on the rotation, and rightly so, but I can imagine a winter where we only add one SP'er and once again, pin our hopes that Bello & Sale hold down the 2-3 slots and someone from Crawford, Pivetta and Houck fill in the 4-5 slots. It's no secret I'd like to see us add 2 solid SP'ers and a decent #4 type, but in reality, hoping for just 2 solid SP'ers may be a pipedream.

 

With the money we have to spend and still not go over the tax line, IMO, it should not be a pipedream.

 

Even though the bullpen was good, don't be surprised if Breslow adds and subtracts there. The old relievers are the best returning trade chips, and not guaranteed to repeat greatness on the mound nor goodness in health.

 

Supposedly, Breslow favors power arms -- and who wouldn't? Back-end relievers -- hot and cold -- are always the keys to October drama.

 

That Angels strategy of drafting 20 pitchers in a row makes sense if they're the 20 fastest available on radar guns. They all won't make it, but what's better trade capital at the deadline every summer?

[moonslav59]

Even though the bullpen was good, don't be surprised if Breslow adds and subtracts there. The old relievers are the best returning trade chips, and not guaranteed to repeat greatness on the mound nor goodness in health.

 

Supposedly, Breslow favors power arms -- and who wouldn't? Back-end relievers -- hot and cold -- are always the keys to October drama.

 

That Angels strategy of drafting 20 pitchers in a row makes sense if they're the 20 fastest available on radar guns. They all won't make it, but what's better trade capital at the deadline every summer?

 

I can never agree that that Angels' strategy could ever make sense.

 

I have said this before, but if we add 2-3 solid SP'ers who rate to pitch more than 150 IP, our pen will be greatly strengthened by keeping more of these guys in the pen: Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I can never agree that that Angels' strategy could ever make sense.

 

I have said this before, but if we add 2-3 solid SP'ers who rate to pitch more than 150 IP, our pen will be greatly strengthened by keeping more of these guys in the pen: Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta.

 

It makes sense, but Breslow may have plans to trade one or two of them, and convert a few more into All-Star starters... (nothing could be better than to improve guys already here, with reasonable salaries).

[mvp 78]

We still have no idea. Breslow could trade a lot of people we don’t think of as moving. Bloom certainly would do that. No one saw trading Benintendi. Or Renfroe.

 

If he does do some dealing, Jansen and Martin (sell high?) are potential candidates, seeing as to how n both have one year left. Ditto Verdugo for the same reason. Duran as well, simply because the OF is crowded and he might want to get a RH bat that has to play somewhere.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them moved. But I would be if they all did.

 

That is the downside to Breslow. As he has no history, we have nothing to base anything on. But I doubt he sticks so much to the status quo…

 

Probably needs to wait until the trade deadline to sell Jansen!!! Seems like an optimal time to move him no matter what the standings say!

[mvp 78]

Even though the bullpen was good, don't be surprised if Breslow adds and subtracts there. The old relievers are the best returning trade chips, and not guaranteed to repeat greatness on the mound nor goodness in health.

 

Supposedly, Breslow favors power arms -- and who wouldn't? Back-end relievers -- hot and cold -- are always the keys to October drama.

 

That Angels strategy of drafting 20 pitchers in a row makes sense if they're the 20 fastest available on radar guns. They all won't make it, but what's better trade capital at the deadline every summer?

 

I do like that he's a velo guy. A lot of the Bloom draft picks were "stuff" guys or pitchability guys that we hoped would play up (Matt Duffy as an example).

[moonslav59]

It makes sense, but Breslow may have plans to trade one or two of them, and convert a few more into All-Star starters... (nothing could be better than to improve guys already here, with reasonable salaries).

 

Breslow may have a different idea about the types of pitchers we should have in the rotation and pen. I agree. He may want to change over some, and trading one or more may be high on his list.

 

I hope his vision is a good one.

[moonslav59]

I do like that he's a velo guy. A lot of the Bloom draft picks were "stuff" guys or pitchability guys that we hoped would play up (Matt Duffy as an example).

 

Good point. It makes me wonder, if Breslow may look to move many of these "stuff" guys for more power type young pitchers (prospects or not.)

[notin]

Probably needs to wait until the trade deadline to sell Jansen!!! Seems like an optimal time to move him no matter what the standings say!

 

I think, like any other trades offer, it depends on what is coming back. At the deadline, the Sox might actually still be in it…

[moonslav59]

I think, like any other trades offer, it depends on what is coming back. At the deadline, the Sox might actually still be in it…

 

Yes, if we are still in it, it makes it harder to justify a trade off to fans.

[notin]

Yes, if we are still in it, it makes it harder to justify a trade off to fans.

 

It gets justified if they get back something more useful at MLB level.

 

No BTV-acceptable ideas, but if the deal Jansen for a RHH outfielder with pop to start in LF or RF, and then replace him at closer, either internally or externally, it isn’t that hard to justify.

 

No one worried about justification last year when the Marlins traded Pablo Lopez for Arraez last year, for example…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It gets justified if they get back something more useful at MLB level.

 

No BTV-acceptable ideas, but if the deal Jansen for a RHH outfielder with pop to start in LF or RF, and then replace him at closer, either internally or externally, it isn’t that hard to justify.

 

No one worried about justification last year when the Marlins traded Pablo Lopez for Arraez last year, for example…

 

Some of us thought the Sox would've had just as much chance at a wild card if they dealt Paxton at the height of his value at the deadline. But Bloom blew it.

 

Then again, the Mariners traded closers when they were still in it, in two of the last three deadlines. Seattle missed the playoffs both years, but both clubs they gave closers to made the World Series.

[notin]

Some of us thought the Sox would've had just as much chance at a wild card if they dealt Paxton at the height of his value at the deadline. But Bloom blew it.

 

Then again, the Mariners traded closers when they were still in it, in two of the last three deadlines. Seattle missed the playoffs both years, but both clubs they gave closers to made the World Series.

 

Right now I’m not talking about deadline. I’m talking off-season…

[mvp 78]

I think, like any other trades offer, it depends on what is coming back. At the deadline, the Sox might actually still be in it…

 

Doesn't matter... MUST TRADE JANSEN!!!!

[notin]

Doesn't matter... MUST TRADE JANSEN!!!!

 

This sounds personal…

[mvp 78]

Some of us thought the Sox would've had just as much chance at a wild card if they dealt Paxton at the height of his value at the deadline. But Bloom blew it.

 

Then again, the Mariners traded closers when they were still in it, in two of the last three deadlines. Seattle missed the playoffs both years, but both clubs they gave closers to made the World Series.

 

Other teams have always relied on the kindness of Mariners...

[mvp 78]

This sounds personal…

 

It is for some posters.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This sounds personal…

 

I take the whole Bloom Era personally.

 

The moves and non-moves he made -- even if at the behest of superiors -- led to the Red Sox finishing behind every division rival in three of four years.

 

Now there is not one single ballplayer in Boston's entire system I would refuse to include in a trade, if it made the big league club appreciably better.

 

I welcome major upheavals on the roster by the new CBO, asap.

[moonslav59]

It gets justified if they get back something more useful at MLB level.

 

No BTV-acceptable ideas, but if the deal Jansen for a RHH outfielder with pop to start in LF or RF, and then replace him at closer, either internally or externally, it isn’t that hard to justify.

 

No one worried about justification last year when the Marlins traded Pablo Lopez for Arraez last year, for example…

 

Not many deadline trades involve a ML player for a ML player. It's usually a ML player for a prospect or two.

[moonslav59]

Right now I’m not talking about deadline. I’m talking off-season…

 

That is different and more understandable and possible.

[moonslav59]

I take the whole Bloom Era personally.

 

The moves and non-moves he made -- even if at the behest of superiors -- led to the Red Sox finishing behind every division rival in three of four years.

 

Now there is not one single ballplayer in Boston's entire system I would refuse to include in a trade, if it made the big league club appreciably better.

 

I welcome major upheavals on the roster by the new CBO, asap.

 

I'm all for building up for the future, but I agree, enough is enough. It is time to build for now.

[notin]

That is different and more understandable and possible.

 

It would seriously help a lot if people would stop thinking that July/August is the only time MLB roster players get traded, and that every time a player off the MLB roster is dealt, it obviously means selling and tanking…

[moonslav59]

It would seriously help a lot if people would stop thinking that July/August is the only time MLB roster players get traded, and that every time a player off the MLB roster is dealt, it obviously means selling and tanking…

 

It was mentioned trading him at the deadline, so I responded to that.

 

Certainly, I am open to and aware of trades made in the winter.

[notin]

It was mentioned trading him at the deadline, so I responded to that.

 

Certainly, I am open to and aware of trades made in the winter.

 

I see no point in talking deadline until we know the team cannot compete, which we will mot know until we see the team play, which we won’t be able to do until long after we know who is even on the team.

 

But it is possible to trade a veteran MLB player and not mean giving up the season. The Sox traded Benintendi prior to the 2021 season. How many people called that a tank? I mean, they did fail to make it to game 7 of the ALCS…

Edited October 27, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

I see no point in talking deadline until we know the team cannot compete, which we will mot know until we see the team play, which we won’t be able to do until long after we know who is even on the team.

 

But it is possible to trade a veteran MLB player and not mean giving up the season. The Sox traded Benintendi prior to the 2021 season. How many people called that a tank? I mean, they did fail to make it to game 7 of the ALCS…

 

At the time, I think many felt trading Beni for 5 players/prospects was a sign we were looking more towards the future than 2021. That's not "tanking," but many viewed it as a sign we were punting.

[mvp 78]

Punting is not the same as a bridge season.

[moonslav59]

Punting is not the same as a bridge season.

 

Did many of us think 2021 was going to be a competitive season?

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19983-How-many-wins-will-the-2021-Red-Sox-get

 

Call it a punt. Call it a half-ass attempt. I don't think many felt we'd do anywhere near as well as we did.