A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

Some of you have unrealistic expectations.

 

You want a team not only is a playoff contender but more assurance than not that we get to the world series.

 

I don't see 2024 as a make or break season.

 

We have core group of younger players. Obviously it needs big pieces in starting rotation.

 

I just want a team that's more competitive than this year's team.

 

We maybe two or three years away.

 

It took Texas two years of roster additions to get to where they are......

 

I think they need to trend in a positive direction. I thought that's what would happen in 2023. It did not.

 

Without seeing the lineup, I'm not going to prognosticate. I also have NO CLUE about what John Henry wants to spend.

[moonslav59]

Whose expectation?

 

I said "possible" expectation... that we spend up to the tax line- maybe the up to but not passing the second one.

[notin]

As long as they can also hit, i.e. not Chapman.

 

Don’t confuse Chapman with Isiah Kiner-Falefa…

[moonslav59]

A lefty-lefty platoon?

 

I could see a Refsnyder-Duran LF platoon or a Rafaela-Abreu CF platoon, but not both at the same time.

 

If we trade Dugo and bring back Duvall.

 

L- Duran in LF only (CF emergency)

L- Abreu in CF & RF (if not on the farm)

R- Ref in LF only

R- Rafaela in CF (if not on the farm)

R- Duvall in RF

[notin]

I could see a Refsnyder-Duran LF platoon or a Rafaela-Abreu CF platoon, but not both at the same time.

 

If we trade Dugo and bring back Duvall.

 

L- Duran in LF only (CF emergency)

L- Abreu in CF & RF (if not on the farm)

R- Ref in LF only

R- Rafaela in CF (if not on the farm)

R- Duvall in RF

 

Platoons are small market baseball. Either give Duran a real shot or trade him…

[mvp 78]

I said "possible" expectation... that we spend up to the tax line- maybe the up to but not passing the second one.

 

The basically spent up to the CBT this year. Leaving 5M on the table isn't the end of the world here. That's just deadline deal wiggle room.

[mvp 78]

I could see a Refsnyder-Duran LF platoon or a Rafaela-Abreu CF platoon, but not both at the same time.

 

If we trade Dugo and bring back Duvall.

 

L- Duran in LF only (CF emergency)

L- Abreu in CF & RF (if not on the farm)

R- Ref in LF only

R- Rafaela in CF (if not on the farm)

R- Duvall in RF

 

Refsnyder was 2022 Fool's Gold. He'll never be that good again. 444 BABIP vs LHP?!?!

[notin]

The basically spent up to the CBT this year. Leaving 5M on the table isn't the end of the world here. That's just deadline deal wiggle room.

 

Deadline deal wiggle room? Why would we need THAT?!

[mvp 78]

Deadline deal wiggle room? Why would we need THAT?!

 

Just in case Bloom imbibed a little too much Whistle Pig.

[notin]

I think they need to trend in a positive direction. I thought that's what would happen in 2023. It did not.

 

Without seeing the lineup, I'm not going to prognosticate. I also have NO CLUE about what John Henry wants to spend.

 

 

That’s the thing. Just because Bloom is gone doesn’t mean the purse strings are back open. Just because Keith Law said the Sox “need to act like [the Red Sox] again” doesn’t mean they will.

 

I know the Sox repeatedly have said “money will not be a factor” but that stopped meaning anything during the Betts’ negotiations, which, regardless of what story you believe, fell apart when money became a factor.

 

There may be a small to mid-market future here…

[notin]

Just in case Bloom imbibed a little too much Whistle Pig.

 

According to your other post, that’s how Bloom got the job in the first place…

[mvp 78]

According to your other post, that’s how Bloom got the job in the first place…

 

Yup, Bloom makes bad decisions when he drinks too much. He should have stayed in TB.

[mvp 78]

That’s the thing. Just because Bloom is gone doesn’t mean the purse strings are back open. Just because Keith Law said the Sox “need to act like [the Red Sox] again” doesn’t mean they will.

 

I know the Sox repeatedly have said “money will not be a factor” but that stopped meaning anything during the Betts’ negotiations, which, regardless of what story you believe, fell apart when money became a factor.

 

There may be a small to mid-market future here…

 

1,000,000%

 

"Money is not a factor!"

 

Last week, McAdam reported that John Henry has a big aversion to long term high dollar contracts. Is it really NOT a factor?

[notin]

Yup, Bloom makes bad decisions when he drinks too much. He should have stayed in TB.

 

… where bad decisions get sponsored by Tropicana…

[moonslav59]

Platoons are small market baseball. Either give Duran a real shot or trade him…

 

I disagree, fully.

 

You got guys on the bench- use them. Keep them fresh. Minimize weak spots in players you have.

 

Yes, in theory, just put 9 guys in the line-up with no weaknesses on D or on splits.

 

BTW, the 100 win Dodgers started Jason heywood in 98 games vs RHPs and 0 vs LHPs. Looks like a solid platoon, to me. Are they "small market?"

[notin]

1,000,000%

 

"Money is not a factor!"

 

Last week, McAdam reported that John Henry has a big aversion to long term high dollar contracts. Is it really NOT a factor?

 

 

Maybe the years put him off. They do with me. Of course, I’m not responsible for the money that gets paid out for all those years…

[notin]

I disagree, fully.

 

You got guys on the bench- use them. Keep them fresh. Minimize weak spots in players you have.

 

Yes, in theory, just put 9 guys in the line-up with no weaknesses on D or on splits.

 

BTW, the 100 win Dodgers started Jason heywood in 98 games vs RHPs and 0 vs LHPs. Looks like a solid platoon, to me. Are they "small market?"

 

 

“Keeping the bench fresh” is the number one complaint against Cora on this board, just ahead of cheating scandals and Kike Love…

[moonslav59]

Refsnyder was 2022 Fool's Gold. He'll never be that good again. 444 BABIP vs LHP?!?!

 

He had a .428 OBP vs LHPs in 2023. (.371 BAbip v L and .224 v R)

 

Sox OPS Leaders vs LHPs in 2023:

.900 Turner (.317 BAbip)

.828 Refsnyder (.371)

.824 Devers (.302)

.817 Casas (.296)

.772 Reyes (.347)

.756 Duvall (.353)- the guy many of us want back due to our weak area v L

.746 Yoshida (.311)

.609 Dugo (.263 and 3rd most PAs v L)

501 Wong (.263) 108 PAs was 6th most on the team

 

He still has value, but only when batting vs LHPs.

 

2022-2023 OPS of Sox Players vs LHPs and under team control for 2024:

50+ PAs

.889 Refsnyder

.784 Devers

.783 Story

.777 Casas

.772 Reyes

.772 Dalbec

.746 Yoshida

.652 Dugo

.611 Duran

.477 Wong

 

(.934 McGuire in 44 PAs- reverse split)

[moonslav59]

“Keeping the bench fresh” is the number one complaint against Cora on this board, just ahead of cheating scandals and Kike Love…

 

You wanna bench our best hitter vs LHPs just to change the managers motto?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1,000,000%

 

"Money is not a factor!"

 

Last week, McAdam reported that John Henry has a big aversion to long term high dollar contracts. Is it really NOT a factor?

 

Red Sox fans are still misinterpreting this. When building a roster, money will not be a factor.

[notin]

Red Sox fans are still misinterpreting this. When building a roster, money will not be a factor.

 

Yep. Won’t factor in at all.

[Bellhorn04]

1,000,000%

 

"Money is not a factor!"

 

Last week, McAdam reported that John Henry has a big aversion to long term high dollar contracts. Is it really NOT a factor?

 

Do Devers, Story and Yoshida count?

[notin]

Do Devers, Story and Yoshida count?

 

Yes but only as an excuse to not sign anyone else.

 

And really, are the deals for Yoshida and Story really that big in todays landscape? 5 and 6 year deals given to players under 30?

[moonslav59]

Yes but only as an excuse to not sign anyone else.

 

And really, are the deals for Yoshida and Story really that big in today's landscape? 5 and 6 year deals given to players under 30?

 

When you factor just the US inflation rate into our yearly player salary budgets, it's obvious we have not come very close to the 2018-2019 levels of spending. Many teams have passed us in the rankings.

 

According to cots, the CB Tax budget has been:

$239 in 2018 (1st)

$244 in 2019 (1)

$185 in 2020 (8)

$208 in 2021 (6)

$236 in 2022 (5)

$222 in 2023 (12)

 

[mvp 78]

Do Devers, Story and Yoshida count?

 

Devers - ownership was held over a barrel and was forced to sign a long term mega contract.

Story - Xander's low cost replacement 6/140 vs 11/280. El Cheapo wins again.

Yoshida - A just don't believe a 5/90 contract is worth mentioning? Anything under 20M AAV or 100M in total is just the cost of doing business these days.

[mvp 78]

Yes but only as an excuse to not sign anyone else.

 

And really, are the deals for Yoshida and Story really that big in todays landscape? 5 and 6 year deals given to players under 30?

 

Yeah, those two deals are much cheaper than the other FA deals we've seen recently.

[mvp 78]

When you factor just the US inflation rate into our yearly player salary budgets, it's obvious we have not come very close to the 2018-2019 levels of spending. Many teams have passed us in the rankings.

 

According to cots, the CB Tax budget has been:

$239 in 2018 (1st)

$244 in 2019 (1)

$185 in 2020 (8)

$208 in 2021 (6)

$236 in 2022 (5)

$222 in 2023 (12)

 

 

Yeah, they probably aren't going to go over the CBT until the get into the playoff picture again. Makes sense to me. Wait to go over when you finally need that additional one or two pieces.

[notin]

Yeah, they probably aren't going to go over the CBT until the get into the playoff picture again. Makes sense to me. Wait to go over when you finally need that additional one or two pieces.

 

Ok so maybe a Henry is opposed to long term big money contracts.

 

Well, the Sox need starting pitching. And it just so happens there is this ace-caliber Cy Young winning starting pitcher on the free agent market who’s a clear cut total jackass and insufferable human being but is apparently not a sexual assaulter and is no longer under suspension for being scammed, and also happens to prefer short term year-to-year contracts.

 

Should Romero be interested?

[dgalehouse]

Maybe John Henry wants to get in on the revenue sharing action.

[Hugh2]

A lefty-lefty platoon?

 

Yeah, f*** it. Bring out your lefty relievers.....we'll burn through them all!!!!!