Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Dipre]

Why? What does Ben have to do with DD? Why could DD sign Price, but Ben couldn't sign Max? Isn't it still coming from the same bank account?

 

I don't think Ben had as much of a leash to spend lavishly on long-term deals as DD did.

[mvp 78]

Houck had a 2.0 bWAR over his first 2 seasons, combined- 86 IP (16 GS and 5 RP appearances.)

 

Pivetta has had stretches of 20+ starts, where his numbers look better than many teams' #2 or 3 SP'er. He's had bWARs of 2.5, 2.6 and 2.4, the last 3 seasons.

 

In theory, we could have 5 guys over 2.0:

 

Giolito (repeat '19, '20 pro-rated, or 2021)

Bello (repeat 2023)

Pivetta (just repeat 2021, 2022 or 2023)

Crawford (repeat 2023)

Houck (repeat 2020-2021)

 

Why does this seem so unlikely? (It does, to me.)

 

Pivetta after developing his sweeper in '23:

 

91.2 Inn

127 k

28 bb

3.14 ERA

2.93 xFIP

 

Pivetta could be a third starter or better in the league, but he has never been able to put it all together. Maybe he turned a corner with the sweeper?

[moonslav59]

Why? What does Ben have to do with DD? Why could DD sign Price, but Ben couldn't sign Max? Isn't it still coming from the same bank account?

 

Agreed, the AAV on HRam + Pablito was more than Scherzer.

 

I guess the running argument was that we were not allowed to spend large & long on 30+ SP'ers, until the precise time of the Price signing.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta after developing his sweeper in '23:

 

91.2 Inn

127 k

28 bb

3.14 ERA

2.93 xFIP

 

Pivetta could be a third starter or better in the league, but he has never been able to put it all together. Maybe he turned a corner with the sweeper?

 

He's had some very long stretches of doing very well, in each of his last 3 seasons. If he could do it for 32 GS, this year, his paycheck should be very nice on the open market, next winter.

 

(I'd like to see us extend him.)

[Dipre]

Pivetta after developing his sweeper in '23:

 

91.2 Inn

127 k

28 bb

3.14 ERA

2.93 xFIP

 

Pivetta could be a third starter or better in the league, but he has never been able to put it all together. Maybe he turned a corner with the sweeper?

 

Gio and Clev and pray for rain.

[mvp 78]

His ceiling is a 1, as is the ceiling for most pitchers with his pedigree. The problem is fulfilling that ceiling. Most prospects never reach their ceiling.

 

It'll take a lot of work from Bailey to get him there. His k/9 went from the 12's in MiLB to 7.6 last season. His whiff rate is low and he gets barreled. He keeps the ball on the ground, but currently looks more like Derek Lowe than a true top guy to me.

[mvp 78]

Gio and Clev and pray for rain.

 

Clevinger pushes Houck to the pen. That's all. He's not much of an improvement over Kutter or Pivetta.

[mvp 78]

He's had some very long stretches of doing very well, in each of his last 3 seasons. If he could do it for 32 GS, this year, his paycheck should be very nice on the open market, next winter.

 

(I'd like to see us extend him.)

 

We'll just have to see how the new regime values him. He did need the kick in the pants last year at the beginning of the season.

[mvp 78]

I don't think Ben had as much of a leash to spend lavishly on long-term deals as DD did.

 

He grabbed two 3b's in the same offseason. Of course he had a decent sized leash.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Ben had as much of a leash to spend lavishly on long-term deals as DD did.

 

He spent a lot.

 

$154M/7 AGon extension (3rd highest contract in Sox history)

The Vic, Dempster, Napoli and S Drew group was for over $95M in 2013.

$110/8 Pedey extension was a major contract.

$95M/5 + $88M/4 for Pablito & HRam was a major outlay of cash.

He also signed Rusney Castillo to $73M/7 in 2014.

 

Adjust for inflation, and Ben had a longer budget leash than Bloom, but still not as much as DD, starting with the Price signing and including trades that brought in higher salaries.

 

[mvp 78]

Some would say the Pedroia was the largest 2b contract ever handed out at the time.

[Old Red]

Clevinger pushes Houck to the pen. That's all. He's not much of an improvement over Kutter or Pivetta.

 

Right now I don’t see Houck in the rotation. The last I heard Whit, Houck, and Wink would be fighting for the 5th spot behind Bello, Gio, Pivetta, Wink, and the Kut Man.

[Dipre]

It'll take a lot of work from Bailey to get him there. His k/9 went from the 12's in MiLB to 7.6 last season. His whiff rate is low and he gets barreled. He keeps the ball on the ground, but currently looks more like Derek Lowe than a true top guy to me.

 

Won't improve unless he ditches the four seamer or adds RPM to it.

[Dipre]

He grabbed two 3b's in the same offseason. Of course he had a decent sized leash.

 

I think those were both ownership-propelled moves, as they were a stark contrast (especially Pablo) to what Ben was trying to do. Hanley was exciting but older and practically immobile, and we all know all of the problems Panda had.

[Old Red]

Price was a "you gotta do what you gotta do" signing. I was neither happy nor unhappy about it. I definitely understood it. I wouldn't go back and undo it, either. Might be one less ring if you do that.

 

Substitute Lester for Price in 2018, and there is no way to tell on that ring.

[Randy Red Sox]

Clevinger pushes Houck to the pen. That's all. He's not much of an improvement over Kutter or Pivetta.

 

when did we sign Clevinger?

[Dipre]

Clevinger pushes Houck to the pen. That's all. He's not much of an improvement over Kutter or Pivetta.

 

I like Clevinger as a reclamation project for Bailey as much as I like Gio. His fastball velocity ticked up last year, and he's a guy who I think could benefit from alterations to his pitch mix.

[moonslav59]

We'll just have to see how the new regime values him. He did need the kick in the pants last year at the beginning of the season.

 

No doubt. He looked like DFA material, before turning it around in the pen.

 

Some of his strong stretches:

 

2021:

3.77 ERA and 3.27 FIP on June 6th (11 GS)

4.20 and 4.17 on August 17th (after 23 GS)

 

2022:

3.62 and 3.73 during a 20 GS stretch in May to Aug.

3.85 and 4.04 over an overlapping 25 game stretch.

 

2023:

2.37 and 2.73 after joining the rotation in SEP (5 GS)

3.16 and 3.28 after May 17th (8 GS and 22 games in relief)

[Dipre]

when did we sign Clevinger?

 

They haven't signed him, but he makes sense for the cannon fodder approach the Red Sox seem to be taking.

[moonslav59]

It's come down to Gio and hopes for Clevinger or maybe settling on Paxton.

 

Bummer is not a strong enough word.

[Randy Red Sox]

It's come down to Gio and hopes for Clevinger or maybe settling on Paxton.

 

Bummer is not a strong enough word.

 

it will probably not be Clevinger but likely the last guy standing willing to take a 1 yr deal

[Dipre]

it will probably not be Clevinger but likely the last guy standing willing to take a 1 yr deal

 

You mean Clevinger.

[mvp 78]

Right now I don’t see Houck in the rotation. The last I heard Whit, Houck, and Wink would be fighting for the 5th spot behind Bello, Gio, Pivetta, Wink, and the Kut Man.

 

I think Crag just needs to see these guys for himself unfortunately. We already know that Whitlock's body isn't suited for the rotation. Winckowski's stuff played up in the pen so I'd just leave him there.

[notin]

Why? What does Ben have to do with DD? Why could DD sign Price, but Ben couldn't sign Max? Isn't it still coming from the same bank account?

 

Well, DD couldn’t sign Max for the Red Sox because he’s wasn’t here at the time. It’s not fair to ask why he waited a year to sign Price instead of Scherzer when he wasn’t heard at the time. And as both of them are pitchers he traded for at one point, we can’t even use his history to highlight a preference for one over the other…

[mvp 78]

Won't improve unless he ditches the four seamer or adds RPM to it.

 

Not all that many pitchers straight up ditch the 4 seamer altogether. We'll see what tweaks they can do with him.

[notin]

I like Clevinger as a reclamation project for Bailey as much as I like Gio. His fastball velocity ticked up last year, and he's a guy who I think could benefit from alterations to his pitch mix.

 

And apparently he’s expressed interest in Boston, which I’m guessing is due to 1) Giolito and (more importantly) 2) a lack of interest from other teams…

[mvp 78]

You mean Clevinger.

 

Sox selling point is a one year deal and working with Bailey/Crag. Reclaim value and get a longer term deal next offseason.

[mvp 78]

Well, DD couldn’t sign Max for the Red Sox because he’s wasn’t here at the time. It’s not fair to ask why he waited a year to sign Price instead of Scherzer when he wasn’t heard at the time. And as both of them are pitchers he traded for at one point, we can’t even use his history to highlight a preference for one over the other…

 

I think you misread the post.

[Old Red]

I think Crag just needs to see these guys for himself unfortunately. We already know that Whitlock's body isn't suited for the rotation. Winckowski's stuff played up in the pen so I'd just leave him there.

 

Agree, and as the Red Sox have found out the past 2 years you need closer to 10 SP than 5 to get you through the season too.

[Dipre]

Not all that many pitchers straight up ditch the 4 seamer altogether. We'll see what tweaks they can do with him.

 

But it happens. Some guys outright ditch and throw sinkers instead.