Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Dipre]

How about Yamo vs Monty + Imanaga?

 

Same cost.

 

Then, you have one less major slot to fill and can spend the leftover money on 2B and maybe C, RF or third SP.

 

Honestly? If that was the choice, I'd do Montgomery + Imanaga. But that shouldn't be the choice.

[Dipre]

It is very significant. It's the time frame I use most often.

 

My point was about recognizing a trend in 3 years as an indicator of future projections.

 

The best indicator of future performance is past performance. A three year downward curve in performance is significant enough to assume the curve will continue trending downward.

[moonslav59]

The best indicator of future performance is past performance. A three year downward curve in performance is significant enough to assume the curve will continue trending downward.

 

I disagree. It is an indicator, but not a very strong one, unless the guy is post prime.

 

Burnes only has a 3 year sample size with what seems to be one outlier year, that happened to be year one (2021.)

 

The decline from 2022 to 2023 is somewhat marginal. The big decline was from '21 to '22.

 

It is concerning, but at age 29, I think it is 50-50 we see a decline in 2024 vs the same or better.

[moonslav59]

Honestly? If that was the choice, I'd do Montgomery + Imanaga. But that shouldn't be the choice.

 

Well, if there is a monetary spending limit, it might come down to a choice like that, assuming Yamo would take 350M/10 from BOS over all others and Monty plus Imanaga would sign for $350M combined with BOS as an alternative choice for Brez & Co.

 

I'd take Monty and Imanaga for $175M/5, each over Yamo for $350/10.

 

The lux tax might be double for 5 years, unless we can defer money, but it looks less riskier by spreading 5the risk to 2 players, not one, and going 5 years not 10.

[Dipre]

I disagree. It is an indicator, but not a very strong one, unless the guy is post prime.

 

Burnes only has a 3 year sample size with what seems to be one outlier year, that happened to be year one (2021.)

 

The decline from 2022 to 2023 is somewhat marginal. The big decline was from '21 to '22.

 

It is concerning, but at age 29, I think it is 50-50 we see a decline in 2024 vs the same or better.

 

So you're disagreeing with the very essence of statistical profiling for players? Alrighty then.

[Dipre]

Well, if there is a monetary spending limit, it might come down to a choice like that, assuming Yamo would take 350M/10 from BOS over all others and Monty plus Imanaga would sign for $350M combined with BOS as an alternative choice for Brez & Co.

 

I'd take Monty and Imanaga for $175M/5, each over Yamo for $350/10.

 

The lux tax might be double for 5 years, unless we can defer money, but it looks less riskier by spreading 5the risk to 2 players, not one, and going 5 years not 10.

 

Imanaga is not making 175 IMO

[moonslav59]

Let's see, if he can stick with a team for more than a year.

 

Maybe, at the deadline, we can trade DHam and Binelas for Renfroe.

[moonslav59]

Imanaga is not making 175 IMO

 

More or less?

 

Okay, change it to...

 

$200M Monty

$150M Imanaga

 

I was just trying to compare a similar financial choice that can be made.

[mvp 78]

Who did?

 

Someone!

[moonslav59]

Someone!

 

You're sounding like those posters who fail to name names, but claim "there are many posters who _____."

[mvp 78]

He's only pitched over 60 IP, in his last 3 years. That 2021 season was amazing, but he has been very good for the two following years.

 

ERA-: 58> 73> 77

xFIP: 2.43>3.05>3.40

 

It has been a steady decline, but a 3 year sample size is hard to determine a longer trend.

 

All these candidates have questions.

 

My biggest worry about Burnes is not his projected value going forward: it's the 1 year of control.

 

Why couldn't he pitch more innings in 2020?!?!?!?!?

 

He was injured in 2019, but you need to account for MiLB innings before you can say what he does or doesn't throw on an annual basis.

 

2017: 145

2018: 116 (promoted to MLB midseason and pitched 30 games out of the pen)

[mvp 78]

You're sounding like those posters who fail to name names, but claim "there are many posters who _____."

 

Look at post 4316 then comment. It's in bold. Only one poster on here posts annoyingly like that. Obviously TalkSox had a seizure and threw one of your bad posts onto my account.

[moonslav59]

Why couldn't he pitch more innings in 2020?!?!?!?!?

 

He was injured in 2019, but you need to account for MiLB innings before you can say what he does or doesn't throw on an annual basis.

 

2017: 145

2018: 116 (promoted to MLB midseason and pitched 30 games out of the pen)

 

I wasn't trying to imply he can't pitch many innings. I was pointing out that his career sample size of seasons we can count as significant is only 3 years.

 

Trying to claim some sort of trend on a 3 season sample size seems overly speculative for a 29 year old.

 

I like Burnes, and think he might be the best pitcher of this whole group in 2024. Most IP, best ERA, best xFIP.

 

I have no issues with his IP projections.

[moonslav59]

Look at post 4316 then comment. It's in bold. Only one poster on here posts annoyingly like that. Obviously TalkSox had a seizure and threw one of your bad posts onto my account.

 

There is no Yamo slur, except in your mind, maybe.

[Bellhorn04]

Royals sign Wacha, right on top of Lugo LOL

[Bellhorn04]

All we need now is someone to swoop in and sign Montgomery.

[Randy Red Sox]

All we need now is someone to swoop in and sign Montgomery.

 

Both he and Snell likely to wait until after Yamamoto signs. Likely going to drag into January. watch our great fO trade for a SP with 1 or maybe 2 years of control and give up one of our top 3 prospects in the deal rather than spend in FA. Then when he reaches FA he walks. This will placate RSN for a year though.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess the Sox aren't interested in any of these cheaper starters, just like the last couple of offseasons, aside from Bloom's dumpster dives.

 

Oh well, I'm sure there's a method to their apparent madness...yeah, right.

[Bellhorn04]

Both he and Snell likely to wait until after Yamamoto signs.

 

That's possible, Randy, but one of the teams that has talked to Moto might also say "f*** this, let's offer Montgomery a lot more than he was expecting and see what happens".

[moonslav59]

Both he and Snell likely to wait until after Yamamoto signs. Likely going to drag into January. watch our great fO trade for a SP with 1 or maybe 2 years of control and give up one of our top 3 prospects in the deal rather than spend in FA. Then when he reaches FA he walks. This will placate RSN for a year though.

 

I think Yamo will sign, sooner than later. He will, of course, wait until the counter bidding stops. That could take longer than I expect.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Yamo will sign, sooner than later. He will, of course, wait until the counter bidding stops. That could take longer than I expect.

 

He doesn't have to sign until early January, and for all we know he might be a patient, methodical fellow. This is a one-time only thing in his life, and there's no need for him to be hasty.

[mvp 78]

I think Yamo will sign, sooner than later. He will, of course, wait until the counter bidding stops. That could take longer than I expect.

 

He said it again!

[mvp 78]

I wasn't trying to imply he can't pitch many innings. I was pointing out that his career sample size of seasons we can count as significant is only 3 years.

 

Trying to claim some sort of trend on a 3 season sample size seems overly speculative for a 29 year old.

 

I like Burnes, and think he might be the best pitcher of this whole group in 2024. Most IP, best ERA, best xFIP.

 

I have no issues with his IP projections.

 

If you wait for a significant sample for a pitcher these days, they'll be in their 30's. Pass.

[mvp 78]

Pedro only had 3 full seasons in MON before the Sox traded for him. Too risky of a move?

[moonslav59]

He said it again!

 

"Yamo" is a slur?

[Randy Red Sox]

That's possible, Randy, but one of the teams that has talked to Moto might also say "f*** this, let's offer Montgomery a lot more than he was expecting and see what happens".

 

I don'r see that happing as I really don't see Montgomery as a true #1. Don't you find it at least a little strange that the Rangers don't seem interested in resigning him?

[Bellhorn04]

If Montgomery does sign elsewhere, the Sox might really be looking at this:

 

Plan A (Miraculously) sign Yamamoto

Plan B Punt

[moonslav59]

If you wait for a significant sample for a pitcher these days, they'll be in their 30's. Pass.

 

Again, you missed my point. I'm saying a poster should NOT project next year's value based on a perceived trend for a pitcher with basically only has a 3 year sample size.

 

I do NOT think his 3 year sample size or trend goes against signing him.

 

I repeat: I like Burnes.

 

I'm only worried about not extending him.

[moonslav59]

Pedro only had 3 full seasons in MON before the Sox traded for him. Too risky of a move?

 

Who are you talking to?

[Bellhorn04]

I don'r see that happing as I really don't see Montgomery as a true #1. Don't you find it at least a little strange that the Rangers don't seem interested in resigning him?

 

No, it's not strange about the Rangers. They have deGrom and Scherzer on the payroll for '24. They have Eovaldi of course, They just signed Mahle. They're in pretty good shape with their rotation.