Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

Need to look at the longer sample for him though, no? He's been consistently good and durable.

 

He’s been durable.

 

His bWAR has been 2.5 or less 3 of the last 4 years. But did peak at a ridiculous Pedro-esque 9.8 on 2018. His fWAR has been all over the 3 to 6 range each of the last 4 years.

[notin]

I get the value of FIP, but I think fWAR gos a bit overboard on its influence on their score.

 

Some low K pitchers are damn good, and they get whacked on fWAR.

 

That’s it too.

 

fWAR is beneficial to pitchers with lots of strikeouts and not so many walks or home runs. But pitchers who specialize in getting groundballs can be just as effective, but take a hit on FIP and subsequently on fWAR…

[notin]

MLB Trade Rumors offers its take on the Red Sox offseason:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox-13.html

 

From this article

 

[Casas] has 29 home runs in his first 159 major league games and has walked at a 14.9% clip, but his glovework isn’t strong either, perhaps leading him and Devers to someday co-exist via the designated hitter slot..

 

They might as well just have used the name “Matt Chapman” as a proposed solution…

[moonslav59]

That’s it too.

 

fWAR is beneficial to pitchers with lots of strikeouts and not so many walks or home runs. But pitchers who specialize in getting groundballs can be just as effective, but take a hit on FIP and subsequently on fWAR…

 

All these years, we thought the "f" in fWAR was for Fangraphs, but it really stands for FIP.

[harmony]

3.1 Charlie Morton (Won't get a long deal.)

2.4 Wacha (5.7 in '22+'23)

2.1 ERod (has a player option)

1.6 Giolito (2.8 w CWS)

FWIW Charlie Morton played Little League baseball with Craig Breslow.

 

https://www.nhregister.com/sports/article/Sunday-Gravy-George-Springer-has-always-been-the-12332481.php

[Bellhorn04]

He’s been durable.

 

His bWAR has been 2.5 or less 3 of the last 4 years.

 

But that counts 2020.

 

He does have some indicators of decline, though.

 

Snell on the other hand has more indicators of injury risk.

[Bellhorn04]

That’s it too.

 

fWAR is beneficial to pitchers with lots of strikeouts and not so many walks or home runs. But pitchers who specialize in getting groundballs can be just as effective, but take a hit on FIP and subsequently on fWAR…

 

But it was very beneficial to Porcello in spite of not being a high K pitcher.

[mvp 78]

From this article

 

[Casas] has 29 home runs in his first 159 major league games and has walked at a 14.9% clip, but his glovework isn’t strong either, perhaps leading him and Devers to someday co-exist via the designated hitter slot..

 

They might as well just have used the name “Matt Chapman” as a proposed solution…

 

“Someday” doing a lot of heavy lifting there.

[Dipre]

From this article

 

[Casas] has 29 home runs in his first 159 major league games and has walked at a 14.9% clip, but his glovework isn’t strong either, perhaps leading him and Devers to someday co-exist via the designated hitter slot..

 

They might as well just have used the name “Matt Chapman” as a proposed solution…

 

Matt Chapman sucks.

[Dipre]

But that counts 2020.

 

He does have some indicators of decline, though.

 

Snell on the other hand has more indicators of injury risk.

 

4.95 BB/9, 86.7 LOB% and .256 BABIP. There were a lot of smoke and mirrors in Snell's season.

[moonslav59]

Matt Chapman sucks.

 

That's a bit extreme.

 

Even if you take his worst sample size (3 years,) he has a .743 OPS, which is a 108 OPS+. 26 HRs and 57 XBHs per 650 is not too bad.

 

Best defensive 3Bman from 2021-2023:

OAA

47 K Hayes

30 R McMahon

29 N Arenado

22 Chapman

 

He may not earn his salary, but he doesn't "suck."

 

(BTW, last place: Devers at -25. The next worst is at -14. That could be a 47 out swing or about 15 more outs a year!

[Dipre]

That's a bit extreme.

 

Even if you take his worst sample size (3 years,) he has a .743 OPS, which is a 108 OPS+. 26 HRs and 57 XBHs per 650 is not too bad.

 

Best defensive 3Bman from 2021-2023:

OAA

47 K Hayes

30 R McMahon

29 N Arenado

22 Chapman

 

He may not earn his salary, but he doesn't "suck."

 

(BTW, last place: Devers at -25. The next worst is at -14. That could be a 47 out swing or about 15 more outs a year!

 

Ok then: Matt Chapman almost sucks.

[moonslav59]

But it was very beneficial to Porcello in spite of not being a high K pitcher.

 

Porcello only had 1 season with an fWAR above 3.0, and that was 2016 at 5.4.

That year, he had his lowest BB/9 at 1.29 and a pretty low H.9 at 0.93.

His K rate that year was very close to his career avg (7.63 to 7.65

Because he faced much fewer batters in 2016, his BB% was his lowest, ever at 3.6%- best in MLB among pitchers with 180+ IP.

[mvp 78]

Ok then: Matt Chapman almost sucks.

 

Let's collect more players that can't earn their salary!

[moonslav59]

Let's collect more players that can't earn their salary!

 

Through free agency?

 

You are a true comedian!

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello only had 1 season with an fWAR above 3.0, and that was 2016 at 5.4.

That year, he had his lowest BB/9 at 1.29 and a pretty low H.9 at 0.93.

His K rate that year was very close to his career avg (7.63 to 7.65

Because he faced much fewer batters in 2016, his BB% was his lowest, ever at 3.6%- best in MLB among pitchers with 180+ IP.

 

But Porcello had a career bWAR of 18.8 and a career fWAR of 29.6 - 57.4% higher.

[moonslav59]

But Porcello had a career bWAR of 18.8 and a career fWAR of 29.6 - 57.4% higher.

 

Other aspects of FIP are BB% and HR%.

 

Low K pitchers with decent BB and HR rates can have good FIPs.

 

Career:

2.1 BB/9

1.1 HR/9

 

4.06 FIP

4.40 ERA

 

It is rare that a 6.7 K/9 pitcher has such a high fWAR, but also IP is a major factor. The guy had close to 2100 IP over his 12 year career. That is 7th most in that period.

[notin]

“Someday” doing a lot of heavy lifting there.

 

Why wait? Fans of shoddy corner infield defense?

[notin]

Let's collect more players that can't earn their salary!

 

That is the main purpose of free agency…

[mvp 78]

Why wait? Fans of shoddy corner infield defense?

 

Sacrifice defense for overall better players. Also, Casas will be much better at 1b this year.

[Hugh2]

Sacrifice defense for overall better players. Also, Casas will be much better at 1b this year.

 

If I was a betting man I’d be on the Casas will improve on defense team.

[moonslav59]

If I was a betting man I’d be on the Casas will improve on defense team.

 

He works and studies so hard on hitting, I hope he dedicates himself to improving on D. I think he will.

 

(I thought Dalbec would, too, so what do I know?)

 

That was an awful corner IF defense, this year. When Kike was at SS and Arroyo at 2B, OMG!

[notin]

If I was a betting man I’d be on the Casas will improve on defense team.

 

Why do we think players will just improve on defense? If Breslow addressed the pitching staff by saying “Brandon Walter will just have to get better”, who would find that acceptable?

 

I think if you expected improvement on any area - hitting, pitching, fielding - fielding is the hardest one to just improve…

[moonslav59]

Why do we think players will just improve on defense? If Breslow addressed the pitching staff by saying “Brandon Walter will just have to get better”, who would find that acceptable?

 

I think if you expected improvement on any area - hitting, pitching, fielding - fielding is the hardest one to just improve…

 

Duran was more of an outlier than a common occurrence.

 

Verdugo was never thought to be a plus RF'er. In fact, it seemed we went out of our way to keep him out of RF, until the Tommy Pham trade. He improved.

 

Devers seemed to be improving, then poof!

 

It does happen, but I agree, we should not expect it to happen.

 

I'd like to hear that Casas is working hard on his D over the winter.

[Bellhorn04]

Why do we think players will just improve on defense? If Breslow addressed the pitching staff by saying “Brandon Walter will just have to get better”, who would find that acceptable?

 

I think if you expected improvement on any area - hitting, pitching, fielding - fielding is the hardest one to just improve…

 

Offseason = optimism. Next year guys will get better and also won't get injured so much!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Offseason = optimism. Next year guys will get better and also won't get injured so much!

 

And I'm gonna eat more carrots this winter so my vision improves.

[Dipre]

Offseason = optimism. Next year guys will get better and also won't get injured so much!

 

Yeah but Casas has a track record of great offense and above average defense in the minors. The best indicator of future performance is past performance, as his offensive breakout indicates. It's not blind optimism, it's common sense to expect defensive improvement.

[mvp 78]

Offseason = optimism. Next year guys will get better and also won't get injured so much!

 

I don't think the expectations are unfounded. Younger players tend to improve. It's not like people are saying that Devers is going to turn into a GG defender. Casas should just be better at 1B. He was much better in the second half defensively.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah but Casas has a track record of great offense and above average defense in the minors. The best indicator of future performance is past performance, as his offensive breakout indicates. It's not blind optimism, it's common sense to expect defensive improvement.

 

Agreed (unless you're an old guy who needs special protein shakes or blue pills).

[mvp 78]

Important upcoming dates:

 

Nov 6: FA can sign with new teams.

 

Nov 6: Contract options are due. QO offers are due.

 

Nov 7-9: GM meetings.

 

Nov 14: Deadline for Rule 5 protection.

 

Nov 14: QO decision by player deadline.

 

Nov 17: Non-tender deadline.

 

Dec 3-6: Winter meetings.

 

Dec 5: Draft lottery. Sox have 12%ish chance at lottery pick.

 

Dec 6: Rule 5 Draft extravaganza!