Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Bellhorn04]

Totally depends on who they hire and what his budget is…

 

It's not happening, and you know it's not happening. You just enjoy the role of the contrarian.

[moonslav59]

In the unlikely event the Brewers make Freddy Peralta available, the competition from others teams may push the trade price beyond the BTV estimates.

 

Or not.😉

 

I agree. They will be looking to trade one from Burnes or Woodruff, and then maybe extend the other.

 

They are still in a winning window and are not a super low-spending team.

 

Other teams are more likely partners.

 

KCR: Singer

PIT: M Keller

MIA: Luzardo or Garrett

 

Maybe

AZ: Gallen

CWS: Cease

CLE: Bieber

[moonslav59]

It's not happening, and you know it's not happening. You just enjoy the role of the contrarian.

 

I'm not so sure Mayer is untouchable.

 

We have several other Sss in the system, and Story for 4 more years.

 

We aren't trading Bello, Anthony or Teel. I doubt we'd trade Casas over Mayer.

 

If we can't part with #5 on this list, then not much will have changed.

[harmony]

They can spend big on one pitcher and trade for a lesser pitcher. All kinds of options. The Sox front office says we deserve a playoff team!

Even with a 92-win club that fell two wins shy of the World Series in 2021, the Red Sox are only two games above .500 in regular-season play since the start of the 2020 campaign.

 

This may be a new era for the Red Sox.

 

Or not.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Even with a 92-win club that fell two wins shy of the World Series in 2021, the Red Sox are only two games above .500 in regular-season play since the start of the 2020 campaign.

 

This may be a new era for the Red Sox.

 

Or not.

 

But... Sam just said Red Sox fans deserve as many world championships as they can give us!

 

Could it be we're just not as deserving anymore? Fess up: how many posters this year paid their dues (a couple of Benjis) for Bearclaw shirts, pink plastic trash bags to keep them dry and nourishing grilled cancer and peppers?

[mvp 78]

Last 3 years

 

Gray 3.34 FIP

Nola 3.35 FIP

Snell 3.38 FIP

 

 

That’s also the way I would expect to rank their contracts, starting with the cheapest…

 

I'm sorry, but innings matter. Gray and Snell don't throw the innings that Nola can.

[mvp 78]

I've changed my mind on Gray. I saw an interview where he revealed his poor results with the Yankees came from them forcing him to throw a lot more sliders in his sequencing, and he considers his slider to not be a pitch he has good command or control over, but rather a K pitch or a change of pace breaking ball. Looking at his stats and bottom-line results from both that season and that point forward, it makes sense. He's a guy they should pursue as a #2 option.

 

If he's the secondary guy, I'm fine with it. I don't want him to be the Opening Day Starter.

[a700hitter]

I'm sorry, but innings matter. Gray and Snell don't throw the innings that Nola can.

I could go with Nola and Yamamoto and one big bat. Shopping list complete. Playoffs here we come.

 

Edit: The job isn’t that hard. Get it done.

Edited September 20, 2023 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

I could go with Nola and Yamamoto and one big bat. Shopping list complete. Playoffs here we come.

 

Edit: The job isn’t that hard. Get it done.

 

Agreed. I really don't think we are that many players away from strong contention.

 

The 2 SP'er slots are major, but it's only 2 slots and we have over $50M, minimum, unless JH goes cheaper than the tax line.

 

I think Bloom left a decent foundation for the next GM to finish filling out those 2-4 slots.

 

Can we finally go with quality over quantity?

[moonslav59]

I'm sorry, but innings matter. Gray and Snell don't throw the innings that Nola can.

 

That has been true, and what else can we use as an indicator of what we can expect for IP, going forward? Age?

 

IP 2021-2023

3. Nola 567

9. Gibson 530

14. Morton 520

17. Montgomery 511

29. Pivetta 463

33. Lynn 450

34. Stroman 449

38. Singer 441 (trade?)

39. Greinke 437

41. Snell 431

43. Gray 230

46. Nate 427

 

[moonslav59]

Last winter's FA SP signings:

$37M x 5 deGrom

$27M x 6 Rodon

$43M x 2 Verlander

$15M x 5 Senga

$18M x 4 Walker

$17M x 4 Taillon

$21M x 3 Bassitt

$13M x 3 Eflin & T Anderson

$17M x 2 Nate

$6.5M x 4 Wacha (opt out)

$13M x 3 Quintana, Stripling, Heaney & Manea

$20M/1 Kershaw & M Perez

$9.5 x 2 Smyly

$8.5 x 2 Lyles

$7.5 x 2 Lugo

$13M x 1 Syndergaard

$12M x 1 Clevinger

$10M x 1 Kluber, Gibson & Boyd

 

 

 

[harmony]

Last winter's FA SP signings:

$37M x 5 deGrom

$27M x 6 Rodon

$43M x 2 Verlander

$15M x 5 Senga

$18M x 4 Walker

$17M x 4 Taillon

$21M x 3 Bassitt

$13M x 3 Eflin & T Anderson

$17M x 2 Nate

$6.5M x 4 Wacha (opt out)

$13M x 3 Quintana, Stripling, Heaney & Manea

$20M/1 Kershaw & M Perez

$9.5 x 2 Smyly

$8.5 x 2 Lyles

$7.5 x 2 Lugo

$13M x 1 Syndergaard

$12M x 1 Clevinger

$10M x 1 Kluber, Gibson & Boyd

 

 

 

What about nearly 33-year-old righthander Mike Clevinger, who this year has posted 3.6 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR in 22 starts?

[Bellhorn04]

What about nearly 33-year-old righthander Mike Clevinger, who this year has posted 3.6 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR in 22 starts?

 

Second line from the bottom.

[moonslav59]

What about nearly 33-year-old righthander Mike Clevinger, who this year has posted 3.6 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR in 22 starts?

 

He's on this list, and might be a second tier guy I would not mind us taking a chance on.

[mvp 78]

I could go with Nola and Yamamoto and one big bat. Shopping list complete. Playoffs here we come.

 

Edit: The job isn’t that hard. Get it done.

 

Zero chance.

[mvp 78]

What about nearly 33-year-old righthander Mike Clevinger, who this year has posted 3.6 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR in 22 starts?

 

He seems like a good fit for the Dodgers.

[a700hitter]

I don’t think Yoshida has much trade value unless they eat a lot of his contract.

[harmony]

Second line from the bottom.

Understood.

 

But what kind of contract will Mike Clevinger land and should the Red Sox pursue the veteran?

[moonslav59]

I don’t think Yoshida has much trade value unless they eat a lot of his contract.

 

Agreed.

 

I see one of BTV's biggest mistakes as having Yoshi at +12.6.

 

IMO, he's more like -12.6, as in we'd have to pay $12.6M towards his remaining salary just to get a player worth zero.

[moonslav59]

Understood.

 

But what kind of contract will Mike Clevinger land and should the Red Sox pursue the veteran?

 

I don't think he's very dependable, so maybe he'll fit right into our plans.

 

He probably gets more than $10M/1, so I'm not sure we can afford him.

 

[notin]

It's not happening, and you know it's not happening. You just enjoy the role of the contrarian.

 

Hardly.

 

What if the new front office values Mayer and a few others less than Bloom did? Or decides Story has SS for the next 4 years? Or really, really likes Peralta?

[notin]

What about nearly 33-year-old righthander Mike Clevinger, who this year has posted 3.6 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR in 22 starts?

 

… and purposely dumped tobacco spit on his own infant…

[Bellhorn04]

He's on this list, and might be a second tier guy I would not mind us taking a chance on.

 

He's got some "possible" baggage in the character department, although he was cleared by MLB.

[Bellhorn04]

Hardly.

 

What if the new front office values Mayer and a few others less than Bloom did? Or decides Story has SS for the next 4 years? Or really, really likes Peralta?

 

Yes, there are lots of possibles.

 

Now, how much money would you be willing to bet, straight up, that they trade both Mayer and Rafaela this offseason?

[moonslav59]

Hardly.

 

What if the new front office values Mayer and a few others less than Bloom did? Or decides Story has SS for the next 4 years? Or really, really likes Peralta?

 

I suppose the new GM might decide to roll the dice on our top prospects and just wait 'em out.

 

I think they may look at our top 4-5 prospects and decide which one we can most afford to lose, or the one they have the least faith in, but in reality, it might alol come down to which prospect one GM values more than ours does.

 

I think we trade one of our top 5 prospects, this winter- perhaps with 1-2 second tier prospects for a younger, team-controlled SP'er.

[notin]

Agreed.

 

I see one of BTV's biggest mistakes as having Yoshi at +12.6.

 

IMO, he's more like -12.6, as in we'd have to pay $12.6M towards his remaining salary just to get a player worth zero.

 

They do periodic adjustments. At one point he was among the AL batting leaders with 5+ years of control.

 

I doubt hegoes negative. At least not down to -12…

[moonslav59]

Yes, there are lots of possibles.

 

Now, how much money would you be willing to bet, straight up, that they trade both Mayer and Rafaela this offseason?

 

For all we know, they have Abreu and Duran above Rafaela, so trading him might not be a show-stopper.

 

It's Mayer that is the big choice.

[moonslav59]

They do periodic adjustments. At one point he was among the AL batting leaders with 5+ years of control.

 

I doubt hegoes negative. At least not down to -12…

 

They've moved Rafaela from the 20's to about 6 to 17.9, now. All in a few months.

 

I guess they don't adjust everyone, at the same time.

 

Drohan is still above Wikelman and Perales.

[Bellhorn04]

They do periodic adjustments. At one point he was among the AL batting leaders with 5+ years of control.

 

I doubt hegoes negative. At least not down to -12…

 

What kind of metrics does BTV use? FanGraphs says he's only been worth $3.3 million this year.

[moonslav59]

What kind of metrics does BTV use? FanGraphs says he's only been worth $3.3 million this year.

 

I doubt they have a very sophisticated value formula, but I do think they just haven't updated his number, since the slump began a few weeks back.