Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

Like I keep saying farm rankings are all over the map, so I don’t put much faith in them. Of course you guys always pick the higher ones instead of like Pipeline who has the Red Sox at 16th. Like I’ve always said to me prospects/suspects are useless until they produce in a Red Sox uniform, or are traded for someone who does. Casas, Bello, Raf Man, and Abreu are now producing in a Red Sox uniform, so great. I’ve never been against making the farm rankings better as long as it’s not at the expense of the big league club, and I have stated it before.

 

Every one is higher than 30, and no I don't always pick the higher one. I even said "5 to 12" as that is the range I know of.

 

BTW, you never answer my questions.

 

Would you prefer we have higher rankings or lower one?

 

Still waiting on this past unanswered question:

 

Are you watching baseball again, because it is no longer "watered down" or because Bloom is no longer the GM, or for some other reason?

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Bloom could have traded him and all of his salary last year and couldn't pull the trigger. That, and the blowing of the trade deadline for the last 2 years are the main reasons he was fired.

 

Agreed. If I had know about just this Sale deal, forget about the others, I'd have been for firing Bloom back then.

 

I'm still not 100% sure it is true, but not trading him and his salary for just a bag of used balls would have been an unforgivable mistake, IMO.

[Hugh2]

Oh those farm rankings that some on here cling to that are all over the map. I’ve seen some rate the Red 5th on here, and some rank the Red Sox 14th, or 16th like Pipeline. The farm system to me does two things, which are supplementing the big league club, or are traded for someone who does. Getting Sale, and Kimbrel were well worth it, and what they gave up most likely wouldn’t have made the team any better if they hadn’t got traded, so good for DD making the trades. DD could have traded Raffy. Now that would have been a bad one.

 

Ba and frangraphs at top 5. No one likes having a top ranked farm for the sake of it. You like it because it means future stars. More of a chance you have the next Devers, Betts, Bogaerts in there. Casas and Bello looking strong. No add to that and get a few free agents and we are back in the game

[moonslav59]

Ba and frangraphs at top 5. No one likes having a top ranked farm for the sake of it. You like it because it means future stars. More of a chance you have the next Devers, Betts, Bogaerts in there. Casas and Bello looking strong. No add to that and get a few free agents and we are back in the game

 

Of course it is all speculation, but the odds of a top 5 farm producing more stars than a bottom 5 is great enough to be optimistic about it.

 

Some prefer to wallow in doom and gloom.

 

[dgalehouse]

Oh those farm rankings that some on here cling to that are all over the map. I’ve seen some rate the Red 5th on here, and some rank the Red Sox 14th, or 16th like Pipeline. The farm system to me does two things, which are supplementing the big league club, or are traded for someone who does. Getting Sale, and Kimbrel were well worth it, and what they gave up most likely wouldn’t have made the team any better if they hadn’t got traded, so good for DD making the trades. DD could have traded Raffy. Now that would have been a bad one.

 

How legit are the farm rankings anyway ? If you took all of the jabronis that Dombrowski traded and put them on one team, I doubt they could win the International League pennant today.

[Old Red]

How legit are the farm rankings anyway ? If you took all of the jabronis that Dombrowski traded and put them on one team, I doubt they could win the International League pennant today.

 

You mean he didn’t give away the farm?

[dgalehouse]

You mean he didn’t give away the farm?

 

He didn't give away the farm. He just separated the wheat from the chaff.

[moonslav59]

How legit are the farm rankings anyway ? If you took all of the jabronis that Dombrowski traded and put them on one team, I doubt they could win the International League pennant today.

 

Why just the ones he traded away? The farm rankings were based on the ones he kept and traded away.

[mvp 78]

He didn't give away the farm. He just separated the wheat from the chaff.

 

I guess the wheat was Sam Travis, Michael Chavis and CJ Chatham.

[moonslav59]

He didn't give away the farm. He just separated the wheat from the chaff.

 

He sure did a great job in choosing who to keep and who to trade.

 

Many of those he kept were near no-names, but keeping Devers was a big key.

 

Those who say he "emptied the farm" were wrong then, and more than wrong, now.

 

While he did trade over 20 prospects who once were top 20 on soxprospects.com, most turned out to be highly overrated.

 

That does not mean the same is true, now however, and maybe this farm has some sleepers like DD's did with Bello, Casas, Duran and Crawford, and maybe a few more to come, like Rafaela, Wikelman and Perales.

 

It's all speculation, but no team wins without some homegrown infusion.

[sk7326]

He sure did a great job in choosing who to keep and who to trade.

 

Many of those he kept were near no-names, but keeping Devers was a big key.

 

Those who say he "emptied the farm" were wrong then, and more than wrong, now.

 

While he did trade over 20 prospects who once were top 20 on soxprospects.com, most turned out to be highly overrated.

 

That does not mean the same is true, now however, and maybe this farm has some sleepers like DD's did with Bello, Casas, Duran and Crawford, and maybe a few more to come, like Rafaela, Wikelman and Perales.

 

It's all speculation, but no team wins without some homegrown infusion.

 

What Dombrowski knows is that you do NOT have 20 major leaguers in your org Top 20 ... almost no team does. And often, the pitchers in your Top 20 are walking time bombs injurywise. It's not so much that the players were overrated so much as simply playing the percentages. So what he did was decide that the org would put their chips behind Benintendi and Devers and largely be willing to use the rest as currency. Could you argue he could have been less aggressive. Sure - the Kimbrel trade is just not the sort of thing I'm into - but that's just my view of relievers. And of course since 2019, even with his own injuries, Kopech has been more valuable than Sale - but that is not a move you monday morning quarterback at all.

 

The goal is to be able to that while keeping the development machine whirring. (insert Dodgers-related praise here) But that's hard to do - and there is likely a reason the Dodgers have been the one team able to get to that place, where the development machine gives them that sort of currency to help the big league club. (and even they are desperately thin at starting pitcher now)

[dgalehouse]

Unless the Sox can pass the Yankees in the final two weeks of another lost season , it will be six last place finishes in the past eight non - Dombrowski years.

[moonslav59]

What Dombrowski knows is that you do NOT have 20 major leaguers in your org Top 20 ... almost no team does. And often, the pitchers in your Top 20 are walking time bombs injurywise. It's not so much that the players were overrated so much as simply playing the percentages. So what he did was decide that the org would put their chips behind Benintendi and Devers and largely be willing to use the rest as currency. Could you argue he could have been less aggressive. Sure - the Kimbrel trade is just not the sort of thing I'm into - but that's just my view of relievers. And of course since 2019, even with his own injuries, Kopech has been more valuable than Sale - but that is not a move you monday morning quarterback at all.

 

The goal is to be able to that while keeping the development machine whirring. (insert Dodgers-related praise here) But that's hard to do - and there is likely a reason the Dodgers have been the one team able to get to that place, where the development machine gives them that sort of currency to help the big league club. (and even they are desperately thin at starting pitcher now)

 

Since 2019 is meaningless, since the Sale trade ended after 2019. The Sale trade was for 3 years (2017-2019.)

 

Kopech has a 4.6 career bWAR and 1.9 career fWAR with more to come.

 

Sale gave us 14.5 bWAR and 17.4 fWAR. from 2017-2019.

 

I doubt Kopech catches him. Maybe Kopech + Moncada and others might come closer.

[Old Red]

Unless the Sox can pass the Yankees in the final two weeks of another lost season , it will be six last place finishes in the past eight non - Dombrowski years.

 

I guess Bloom had a different meaning of Awesome.

[dgalehouse]

I guess Bloom had a different meaning of Awesome.

 

He might want to leave that part off of his resume' when applying for his next job.

[moonslav59]

He might want to leave that part off of his resume' when applying for his next job.

 

Hey, it worked!

 

Right after he said that, Red and thousands of others ran to buy season tickets!

[Hugh2]

How legit are the farm rankings anyway ? If you took all of the jabronis that Dombrowski traded and put them on one team, I doubt they could win the International League pennant today.

 

I think it wouldn’t be fair to use that sample size. They don’t all bust like that. There are actual stats and measures to these things. We can write a whole book on it. Higher ranked prospects bust, but on average produce much higher wars correlated with their ranking.

 

A top 100 guy is more likely to be a MLB player, top 50 even more so, top 25…so on and so forth.

 

Just because it’s an imperfect science doesn’t mean it’s a complete crapshoot and there’s no meaning between #30 and #1. Those rankings are pretty good and a lot goes into them. At least over at BA and others.

[Hugh2]

The fact that the prospects DD gave away didn’t pan out also means that that high bust rate meant Sox were heading for tough times regardless.

 

It’s not just who you have in your systems and trade away. It’s who you don’t get in. You’re picking lower in the draft and losing draft picks when you’re operating above the luxury tax line and signing high value free agents.

 

Living in that world we never would have a Roman Anthony in our system. For example

[Randy Red Sox]

The fact that the prospects DD gave away didn’t pan out also means that that high bust rate meant Sox were heading for tough times regardless.

 

It’s not just who you have in your systems and trade away. It’s who you don’t get in. You’re picking lower in the draft and losing draft picks when you’re operating above the luxury tax line and signing high value free agents.

 

Living in that world we never would have a Roman Anthony in our system. For example

 

 

it is kind of unique that Anthony hit for a higher avg at each of the 3 levels he moved through

[Larry Cook]

In the last two seasons, we introduced several solid homegrown prospects into the Boston lineup. Clearly cassas and Bello are the most talented.

 

I think Valdez could stick in Boston in April.

Troye could stick if he has a great spring training.

 

By the end of next year (barring any trades) yorke, Anthony, winkleman, teel, Jordan, gambrell, rosier, and scott are all going to be deserving as well

[moonslav59]

In the last two seasons, we introduced several solid homegrown prospects into the Boston lineup. Clearly cassas and Bello are the most talented.

 

I think Valdez could stick in Boston in April.

Troye could stick if he has a great spring training.

 

By the end of next year (barring any trades) yorke, Anthony, winkleman, teel, Jordan, gambrell, rosier, and scott are all going to be deserving as well

 

Rafaela & Abreu, too.

[moonslav59]

Cots has this for 2024:

 

AAV in $Ms

29.1 Devers

25.6 Sale

23.3 Story

18.0 Yoshida

16.0 Jansen

7.50 Martin

4.69 Whitlock

2.00 Refsnyder

 

Team Option:

4.25 Joely ($500K buyout)

 

Arbs

Verdugo 3 of 3 (6.3M>? 10.5?)

Pivetta 3 of 3 (5.35>? 7.5?)

L Urias 3 of 4 (4.7>? 5.5?)

McGuire 2 of 3 (1.23>? 2.0?)

Schreiber 1 of 3 (750K>? 1.5?)

(I think we either settle before arb or go to arb with all 5)

 

The rest are pre-arbs and minor leaguers.

$126M guaranteed ($131 w Joely)

+$27M Arbs

Total $153M ($158M w Joely)

 

12.0 Pre arb

2.0 0-3 bonus pool

2.5 minors on 40

16.5 player benefits

 

Grand Total $183 to $188M

 

Tax Line 1 $237M: $54M to spend

Tax Line 2 $257M: $74M to spend

 

Please let me know, if I missed someone or something.

 

[Hugh2]

it is kind of unique that Anthony hit for a higher avg at each of the 3 levels he moved through

 

It’s, but it’s just another prime example of why average isn’t everything, especially in a small sample size.

 

Anthony hit .228 in Salem, Salem is a known pitchers ballpark, big time, as is the Carolina league at whole. But the batter ball data showed he was hitting the ball so he got promoted and actually started getting better results against better pitching.

 

Fun fact, at the same age, Rafael Devers only hit 11 home runs in Salem in a full season and he has plus plus raw power. People just don’t hit home runs there.

 

Same thing happened this year with Duran. He was hitting .195 down in Portland but the batted ball data looked good. Sox promoted him despite and the rest is history…..or at least his 2023 campaign.

 

Recent reports are saying Romans defense looks good as well, and if his defensive tools take a tip upward and this is confirmed industry wide he could become a top 10 prospect consensus wide. He might even challenge Mayer for #1 in the Sox system.

[Hugh2]

Like I keep saying farm rankings are all over the map, so I don’t put much faith in them. Of course you guys always pick the higher ones instead of like Pipeline who has the Red Sox at 16th. Like I’ve always said to me prospects/suspects are useless until they produce in a Red Sox uniform, or are traded for someone who does. Casas, Bello, Raf Man, and Abreu are now producing in a Red Sox uniform, so great. I’ve never been against making the farm rankings better as long as it’s not at the expense of the big league club, and I have stated it before.

 

I’ve ALWAYS placed greater weight on Baseball America and fangraphs than pipeline and law. For the Sox system I place more trust in Soxprospects.

 

Still worse case scenario, the Sox system jumped ahead of half the league.

[moonslav59]

I’ve ALWAYS placed greater weight on Baseball America and fangraphs than pipeline and law. For the Sox system I place more trust in Soxprospects.

 

Still worse case scenario, the Sox system jumped ahead of half the league.

 

I feel the same way, and even 16th is way better than 30th.

 

Some people seem to not have the optimism gene in them.

[Old Red]

I feel the same way, and even 16th is way better than 30th.

 

Some people seem to not have the optimism gene in them.

 

Some may have had it in them, but it was taken away with the last two years of Bloom.

[moonslav59]

Some may have had it in them, but it was taken away with the last two years of Bloom.

 

You were optimistic in 2021?

[Randy Red Sox]

I feel the same way, and even 16th is way better than 30th.

 

Some people seem to not have the optimism gene in them.

 

the mushy middle that will get you nowhere fast

[mvp 78]

In the last two seasons, we introduced several solid homegrown prospects into the Boston lineup. Clearly cassas and Bello are the most talented.

 

I think Valdez could stick in Boston in April.

Troye could stick if he has a great spring training.

 

By the end of next year (barring any trades) yorke, Anthony, winkleman, teel, Jordan, gambrell, rosier, and scott are all going to be deserving as well

 

Troye has a 7.84 BB/9 in AA. He's Darwinzon Hernandez. Pass.

[mvp 78]

I’ve ALWAYS placed greater weight on Baseball America and fangraphs than pipeline and law. For the Sox system I place more trust in Soxprospects.

 

Still worse case scenario, the Sox system jumped ahead of half the league.

 

Law has a hate boner for the Sox. MLB Pipeline just isn't very good in general.