Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Hugh2]

Most college drafted pitchers take 4 years to develop and actually start contributing at the ML level- minimum, except for very few exceptions. HS players take 5-6 or more. I stand by my 4-6 years for all pitching prospects as the vast majority fall in that range. Look it up.

 

BTW, TBR had a pretty bad hit and miss rate on pitchers drafted. They are best known for scavenging other team's rosters and farm systems and acquiring good pitching, like Springs from us.

 

Yes, they are known for developing some very well.

 

Not a single poster disagrees on the idea that we need to improve our pitching prospect development system. Nobody. It's not an easy task, and if we have not done enough to do that, so far, that is a big mark against Bloom & Co. I'll drive that bandwagon. However, how will we know he hasn't or has done it until at least 4-6 years have gone by?

 

I've already seen improvement on the pitchers we have called up since Bloom took over: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Wink and Bello are better than any group of 5 since Theo. You assume we have done nothing. Maybe you are right, but it takes time to know, and you seem to expect aces in 3-4 years. You are in a tiny minority on that opinion.

 

You point to Price and Sale and you are right. They may have helped us win in 2018, but they did not earn their money. What about others not from our system? Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Lackey and ERod? Those guys have worked out better than Lester, Buch, Masterson and Bello.

 

I'm all for developing aces. I'm all for drafting better pitching, but no GM drafts pitching just because they are pitchers. They draft the best available player and maybe, just maybe, use position as the tie-breaker.

 

Also, I should add the risk in drafting pitchers. High school pitchers is the most risky investment in the draft. So much so the Sox aren’t the only team who have backed off doing so.

 

Between every class (high school hitter, high school pitcher, college pitcher, college hitter) hugh school pitching is by far and large the riskiest investment.

 

That leaves college pitching. If you’re not picking in the top 5-10, then even those guys go bust or never develop into anything special.

 

The best college pitcher we drafted in decades has been Matt Barnes or Tanner Houck.

 

Plenty of Anthony Ranaudos, Brian Johnson’s, Pat Lights, and other high college pitchers that have never hit.

 

Yes obviously pitchers are drafted high and become studs, but organizations that have had good starting pitching have also been lucky hitting on guys late in the draft. Roy Oswalt was a 23rd round pick, James Shield was a 16th round pick, Cliff Lee was a 4th round pick. Jordan Zimmerman 2nd round, Jon Lester 2nd round. Corey Kluber 4th round.(for those who have forgotten he used to be really good) Brandon Webb 8th round.

 

At the end of the day you can trade hitting for pitching, or trade pitching for hitting.

 

Sox are really good at drafting hitters. Just stay with that and trade for a few guys or sign them.

 

If the Sox can’t draft:develop pitchers, then aside from an organizational overhaul that could take several years their farm system would suck right now.

 

I know people care about the big league team, but the farm system ultimately exists to make the big league club better. By developing future stars or trading for areas of need.

 

Also, in recent years, the Sox have gone very heavy in the IFA market with pitchers, playing the numbers game. That my take years to materialize

[moonslav59]

i don't think we are that far apart on our views but I think it is a stretch to go back to the Schilling, Pedro, etc days. And who is to say that Bello doesn't turn out better than some you mention. i think he will. So does Pedro who should be our PC and Varietk our manager.

 

Well, okay. The trade for Sale worked, and that was not that long ago.

 

The Porcello trade was a good one, too.

 

(It was the extension that killed us.)

 

Start with the DD era. Almost all our best pitchers were not from our system and we did win 92+ games 4 times in 7 years.

 

Look, I agree, the best system is one that develops strong pitchers on a pretty consistent basis. Nobody says that's a bad idea. But, if we start today, or started 4 years ago, it takes time for the results to start being seen, and in the mean time, only one solution can be used to carry us to that day, if that day ever comes: trading or buying pitchers.

 

BTW, I'm not down on Bello. I'm just pointing out how it takes years for guys like him to become an ace, and maybe even 2024 is too soon to call him that, as he likely will not give us 190+ IP.

 

Also, Bello was signed as an IFA in the summer of 2017. It's been just over 6 years, and he has just recently starting to contribute. Yes, college pitchers might be 4-5 years, 3 if lucky.

 

Houck was drafted out of college in 2017. He started contributing in 2021: 4 years.

Whitlock was drafted out of college in 2017: 4 years, again.

Crawford? You guessed it: college 2017. It took him 5 years to contribute as a plus.

Winckowski? Drafted from HS in 2016: 7 years to be a true plus in MLB.

[moonslav59]

TB Rays Drafts Pitching (Top 4 picks)

 

2010

4th pick J THompson- Long Beach St

2011

1st pick (24th) T Guerrieri- HS

6th pick (42nd) J Ames- Lower Columbia College

2012

4th pick (152) N Gannon- HS

2013

2nd pick (29) R Stanek- Arkansas (RP)

2014

none

2015

none

2016

none

2017

1st pick (4) B McKay- Louisville

2nd pick (31) D Rasmussen- Oregon St

3rd pick (40) M Mercado - HS

2018

1st pick (16) Liberatore- HS

2nd pick (31) McClanahan- So. Florida

 

Post Bloom....

2019

2nd pick (36) J Gross- HS

3rd pick (40) S Johnson- Campbell

4th pick (61) H Mullins- HS

2020

1st pick (24) N Bitsko- USA

3rd pick (57) I Seymour- VA Tech

4th pick (70) A Burleson- E Carolina

2021

none

2022

3rd pick (103) T Martin- Okl St

 

I'm not seeing some great success story, here.

 

 

[dgalehouse]

Also, I should add the risk in drafting pitchers. High school pitchers is the most risky investment in the draft. So much so the Sox aren’t the only team who have backed off doing so.

 

Between every class (high school hitter, high school pitcher, college pitcher, college hitter) hugh school pitching is by far and large the riskiest investment.

 

That leaves college pitching. If you’re not picking in the top 5-10, then even those guys go bust or never develop into anything special.

 

The best college pitcher we drafted in decades has been Matt Barnes or Tanner Houck.

 

Plenty of Anthony Ranaudos, Brian Johnson’s, Pat Lights, and other high college pitchers that have never hit.

 

Yes obviously pitchers are drafted high and become studs, but organizations that have had good starting pitching have also been lucky hitting on guys late in the draft. Roy Oswalt was a 23rd round pick, James Shield was a 16th round pick, Cliff Lee was a 4th round pick. Jordan Zimmerman 2nd round, Jon Lester 2nd round. Corey Kluber 4th round.(for those who have forgotten he used to be really good) Brandon Webb 8th round.

 

At the end of the day you can trade hitting for pitching, or trade pitching for hitting.

 

Sox are really good at drafting hitters. Just stay with that and trade for a few guys or sign them.

 

If the Sox can’t draft:develop pitchers, then aside from an organizational overhaul that could take several years their farm system would suck right now.

 

I know people care about the big league team, but the farm system ultimately exists to make the big league club better. By developing future stars or trading for areas of need.

 

Also, in recent years, the Sox have gone very heavy in the IFA market with pitchers, playing the numbers game. That my take years to materialize

 

So much of the good, young pitching is coming out of Latin America.

[moonslav59]

The current Seattle rotation includes former college pitchers taken with 16th pick of the first round in 2018 (Logan Gilbert), the 20th pick of the first round in 2019 (George Kirby), the 113th overall pick in the fourth round in 2021 (Bryce Miller) and the 174th overall pick in the sixth round in 2021 (Bryan Woo).

 

The Mariners’s highest pick in recent years went to college pitcher Emerson Hancock with the sixth pick of the 2020 draft. Hancock made three starts for the M’s last month before being shelved for the season.

 

The Seattle front office deserves credit for drafting college pitchers but let’s not discount the element of luck.

 

So, it looks like you guys "get it" more than the Rays ever have.

 

Your trade for and extension of Castillo was a good choice, too.

[harmony]

So, it looks like you guys "get it" more than the Rays ever have.

 

Your trade for and extension of Castillo was a good choice, too.

Logan Gilbert was taken with the 14th pick of the 2020 draft but an attempt to edit the mistake resulted in the deletion of the post.

[harmony]

Logan Gilbert was taken with the 14th pick of the 2020 draft but an attempt to edit the mistake resulted in the deletion of the post.

At MLB Pipeline Emerson Hancock is the only pitcher ranked among Seattle’s Top 10 prospects.

 

Three of the top four prospects (and five of 10) are position players drafted out of high school.

[moonslav59]

Logan Gilbert was taken with the 14th pick of the 2020 draft but an attempt to edit the mistake resulted in the deletion of the post.

 

I get that same problem, sometimes. Just don't click save. Hit the back button and it won't erase the post you wanted to edit.,

[moonslav59]

Logan Gilbert was taken with the 14th pick of the 2020 draft but an attempt to edit the mistake resulted in the deletion of the post.

 

So, what team is the poster child for drafting and developing pitchers without emphasizing HS picks?

[notin]

Logan Gilbert was taken with the 14th pick of the 2020 draft but an attempt to edit the mistake resulted in the deletion of the post.

 

 

No you were right the first time. Gilbert was selected in 2018…

[moonslav59]

Kirby drafted in 2019 and made an impression in 2022 (3 yrs).

Gilbert in 2018 and made a decent appearance in 2021 (3 yrs) but really 2022 (4 yrs.)

Miller was drafted in 2021 at age 23. It took him 2 years to make a significant impression (2023.)

Woo was also drafted in 2021 and after 2 years has a 4.15 ERA in 65 IP.

 

Maybe, I need to do some research on the average time college pitchers take to make an impact at the ML level. The Mariners seems to have found a formula that works.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kirby drafted in 2019 and made an impression in 2022 (3 yrs).

Gilbert in 2018 and made a decent appearance in 2021 (3 yrs) but really 2022 (4 yrs.)

Miller was drafted in 2021 at age 23. It took him 2 years to make a significant impression (2023.)

Woo was also drafted in 2021 and after 2 years has a 4.15 ERA in 65 IP.

 

Maybe, I need to do some research on the average time college pitchers take to make an impact at the ML level. The Mariners seems to have found a formula that works.

 

I just looked up Red Sox drafts the past five years and from 2019 found #6 pick Chris Murphy, and #26 Brandon Walter. So discounting lost Covid time, four years? Then from 2018 we have Ward and Politi-- two who maybe wouldn't have even made the majors in Boston this year, but were nabbed by other clubs in the Rule V.

 

The pitcher from the '18 draft who the Sox said was closest to making the MLB right out of college was #3 pick Durbin Feltman, a reliever. He still hasn't... and at age 26 is now in AA for Oakland. Wonder how many of the same pre-Bloom employees are doing evaluations for the front office...

[harmony]

No you were right the first time. Gilbert was selected in 2018…

Thanks. Logan Gilbert was the 14th pick of the 2018 draft. Corrections are difficult on a phone.

[Bellhorn04]

Thanks. Logan Gilbert was the 14th pick of the 2018 draft. Corrections are difficult on a phone.

 

notin would agree.

[notin]

notin would agree.

 

There’s a reason notin was not rude about it the first time…

[moonslav59]

Anybody know the average time it takes a college drafted pitcher to not just make the bigs but to start contributing, effectively?

 

I thought 4-5 years, but maybe it should be 3-4 or 3-5.

[Bellhorn04]

Anybody know the average time it takes a college drafted pitcher to not just make the bigs but to start contributing, effectively?

 

I thought 4-5 years, but maybe it should be 3-4 or 3-5.

 

Looks like you have a new project for the offseason.

[moonslav59]

Looks like you have a new project for the offseason.

 

That is not my strong area, nor do I want it to be.

[Randy Red Sox]

Anybody know the average time it takes a college drafted pitcher to not just make the bigs but to start contributing, effectively?

 

I thought 4-5 years, but maybe it should be 3-4 or 3-5.[/QUOT

I would say that it depends if it is a HS or college pitcher.

[notin]

Anybody know the average time it takes a college drafted pitcher to not just make the bigs but to start contributing, effectively?

 

I thought 4-5 years, but maybe it should be 3-4 or 3-5.

 

100% dependent on the pitcher. And the round they get taken in should be a consideration…

[moonslav59]

Anybody know the average time it takes a college drafted pitcher to not just make the bigs but to start contributing, effectively?

 

I thought 4-5 years, but maybe it should be 3-4 or 3-5.[/QUOT

I would say that it depends if it is a HS or college pitcher.

 

I can't tell what you wrote vs what I wrote.

 

My point was 4-6 years by HS drafted pitchers vs 4-5 by college, but maybe the college numbers should be 3-5 or 3-4. It seems like more took 2-3 years than I imagined.

[moonslav59]

100% dependent on the pitcher. And the round they get taken in should be a consideration…

 

Of course- same with HS pitchers, but what is the traditional norm?

 

2-4 for most college draftees? (3-4?)

 

4-6 for most HS draftees? (5-6 or 5-7?)

[harmony]

Kirby drafted in 2019 and made an impression in 2022 (3 yrs).

Gilbert in 2018 and made a decent appearance in 2021 (3 yrs) but really 2022 (4 yrs.)

Miller was drafted in 2021 at age 23. It took him 2 years to make a significant impression (2023.)

Woo was also drafted in 2021 and after 2 years has a 4.15 ERA in 65 IP.

 

Maybe, I need to do some research on the average time college pitchers take to make an impact at the ML level. The Mariners seems to have found a formula that works.

Righthander Bryan Woo is a bit of a unicorn.

 

Woo had an ERA of 6.36 over only 69.1 innings in college before the Seattle Mariners took him in the sixth round of the 2021 draft. Woo had posted an ERA of 6.11 over 28 innings in his final season at Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo, before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Woo made his professional debut just 15 months ago and pitched only 101 minor league innings before his call up to the Mariners.

 

Seattle broadcaster Aaron Goldsmith said someone in the Mariner braintrust thought Woo should be the top pick of the 2021 draft. That's evidence that MLB front offices have far more information than we fans do.

 

BTW the development of Logan Gilbert and George Kirby was slowed by the cancellation of the 2020 minor league season.

Edited September 4, 2023 by harmony

[Dipre]

Julio Urias arrested on domestic violence charges

 

Still want Wifebeater Julio, friends?

[moonslav59]

Julio Urias arrested on domestic violence charges

 

Still want Wifebeater Julio, friends?

 

If the reports are accurate, hell no!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Julio Urias arrested on domestic violence charges

 

Still want Wifebeater Julio, friends?

 

Cross him off our list, but isn't this the kind of guy LA would be interested in?

 

Did comp for Yamamoto just increase or decrease?

[Larry Cook]

I know a lot of people will hate this idea, and I am extremely hesitant to trade such a promising hitter, but if we sign Chapman and move Devers to 1B and Yoshida to DH, thereby improving 3 positions on defense, we could make Casas the centerpoint to a trade that brings us a top young pitcher with several years of team control.

 

I got no names, but Casas has a lot of value.

 

Again, I'm not for trading Casas, and don't say I want to dump him, but I realize we will have to give up a lot to get a top young pitcher in return.

 

Duran or Dugo won't get us one.

 

Rafaela plus Yorke won't get us one.

 

 

I think the marlins would do anything to get cassas

[moonslav59]

I think the marlins would do anything to get cassas

 

Many teams would.

 

The Marlins might also want Duran or Dugo, but they won't bring back the same return.

 

I could see us trade Duran and E R-C for Garrett. We'd then keep Dugo and re-sign Duvall.

 

vs RHPs:

LF: Yoshida (DH?)/Duvall

CF: Duvall/Abreu

RF: Dugo

 

vs LHPs

LF: Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela

RF: Duvall

[Larry Cook]

Many teams would.

 

The Marlins might also want Duran or Dugo, but they won't bring back the same return.

 

I could see us trade Duran and E R-C for Garrett. We'd then keep Dugo and re-sign Duvall.

 

vs RHPs:

LF: Yoshida (DH?)/Duvall

CF: Duvall/Abreu

RF: Dugo

 

vs LHPs

LF: Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela

RF: Duvall

 

I think Cora has had enough of verdugo.

 

I am going with Duran - abreau - Rafeala and Refsynder for the 2024 outfield.

[moonslav59]

I think Cora has had enough of verdugo.

 

I am going with Duran - abreau - Rafeala and Refsynder for the 2024 outfield.

 

If we trade Dugo, we will add another OF'er- most likely a RH'd bat like Duvall.