4/11 vs Rays at the Thunderdome

[Old Red]

We are 7th in MLB in runs scored. Even last year we were 9th, 5th the year before, and even 11th in all of MLB during 2020 when we were arguably the worse team in baseball.

 

The lineup could use some upgrades, but it's obvious not TOO thin.

Being 7th in runs scored is not the telling of what the offense has been to start the season. They hadn’t faced very good pitching going into Tampa, and outside of Duvall, Dugy, and Raffy there wasn’t much else going right for any other hitters, so to call it thin would be to generous.

[jacksonianmarch]

Duvall was meant to occupy a big part of the lineup. He’s likely not going to be the same for 23. That’s a massive hole that your depth can’t fix

[moonslav59]

Duvall was meant to occupy a big part of the lineup. He’s likely not going to be the same for 23. That’s a massive hole that your depth can’t fix

 

At the start of the year, I think guys like Devers, Yoshida, Turner, Casas, Verdugo and maybe even Kike were viewed as occupying a big part of the line-up as much as Duvall. Story would have been, too, had he not been on the IL.

 

It's only because of his massive start to 2023 that this loss looks so costly.

 

Indeed, he was an important righty bat for 2023, but we still have an offense that may very well outscore your Yankees, especially if Story comes back strong.

[Old Red]

Duvall was meant to occupy a big part of the lineup. He’s likely not going to be the same for 23. That’s a massive hole that your depth can’t fix

 

The Red Sox have no depth. I keep hearing the farm is better, but they can’t even bring up anyone to play SS who can field, and hit better than 083. Wouldn’t a Jeter Downs have looked good, but he sucked big time, and never made it. What a haul Bloom got for Mookie. The best option for an OF to be brought up is the Butterfly Man, so for a farm that’s supposed to be better I’d say it’s still pretty thin.

[Hugh2]

Being 7th in runs scored is not the telling of what the offense has been to start the season. They hadn’t faced very good pitching going into Tampa, and outside of Duvall, Dugy, and Raffy there wasn’t much else going right for any other hitters, so to call it thin would be to generous.

 

Well you're making my point. It's been a long time since the Sox have had a bad offense, they've always scored runs. Even when they had the 4th worse record in baseball in 2020 they were still 11th in runs scored. In recent years their struggles have been with some combination of Defense, starting pitching, and relief pitching. As you pointed out a few guys have carried the offense, so what, in a month from now those guys can regress back to the mean, but that's a two-way street. Guys like Casas, Kike, Turner, and Arroyo. Also, we might be surprised by what Mondesi and Story contribute too.

 

By the end of a 162 games season, it's been a long time since the offense has really been a big problem.

 

So, I'll revert back to my point. I'm not concerned about the offense. Now the defense scares me, and the pitching still has me very skeptical as well.

[Hugh2]

Duvall was meant to occupy a big part of the lineup. He’s likely not going to be the same for 23. That’s a massive hole that your depth can’t fix

 

Is that your opinion as a doctor that has seen his medicals?

[Hugh2]

The Red Sox have no depth. I keep hearing the farm is better, but they can’t even bring up anyone to play SS who can field, and hit better than 083. Wouldn’t a Jeter Downs have looked good, but he sucked big time, and never made it. What a haul Bloom got for Mookie. The best option for an OF to be brought up is the Butterfly Man, so for a farm that’s supposed to be better I’d say it’s still pretty thin.

 

Well the Sox have one of the top prospects in all of the baseball playing SS, just because they don't have a guy at a specific position MLB-ready doesn't mean the farm is weak. Are the supposed to have an MLB ready top prospects at every position in AAA. No one even has anything close to that.

[jacksonianmarch]

They played Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Detroit prior to getting shut down by the Rays. Not exactly bastions of pitching dominance. Using their run/game ranking at this point is the ultimate in skewed SSS. It’s gonna come down

[Old Red]

Well the Sox have one of the top prospects in all of the baseball playing SS, just because they don't have a guy at a specific position MLB-ready doesn't mean the farm is weak. Are the supposed to have an MLB ready top prospects at every position in AAA. No one even has anything close to that.

 

Whoopie doo the Red Sox have one of the top prospects in all of baseball in the lower ranks. Doesn’t do any good now does it, and as my saying goes prospects/suspects are useless until they produce in a Red Sox uniform, or are traded for someone who does.

[Hugh2]

Whoopie doo the Red Sox have one of the top prospects in all of baseball in the lower ranks. Doesn’t do any good now does it, and as my saying goes prospects/suspects are useless until they produce in a Red Sox uniform, or are traded for someone who does.

 

You completely missed my point, I'm not the best at conveying mine so that's on me and let me reiterate. I'm not disagreeing with you at all, just merely pointing out that all teams don't have a top prospect in the high minors at every position. Taking one position and saying we don't have just top prospects at that position AND in the high minors ready to take over is not an indictment on a team's system. The Sox should have known this and done better to build depth at that position, to be fair that wasn't helped by a lot of injuries. Still it's not a good look.

[mvp 78]

Is that your opinion as a doctor that has seen his medicals?

 

He had surgery on that same wrist last season. I would ASSume that fracturing that wrist this season may further impact him after he comes back off the IL.

[Hugh2]

He had surgery on that same wrist last season. I would ASSume that fracturing that wrist this season may further impact him after he comes back off the IL.

 

I'll admit an injury to the same wrist is not a good look. But not all injuries are created equal. YOu can break a bone, where 1 CM to the right could have done more extensive soft tissue damage. If it's JUST a broken bone, he should come back fine in 2 months.

 

The reality is we just don't know. It's a bad assumption to make either way

[mvp 78]

I'll admit an injury to the same wrist is not a good look. But not all injuries are created equal. YOu can break a bone, where 1 CM to the right could have done more extensive soft tissue damage. If it's JUST a broken bone, he should come back fine in 2 months.

 

The reality is we just don't know. It's a bad assumption to make either way

 

I think it's a bad ASSumption to believe he'll come back fine. It's more likely to ASSume that there will be some sort of negative impact.

[Old Red]

You completely missed my point, I'm not the best at conveying mine so that's on me and let me reiterate. I'm not disagreeing with you at all, just merely pointing out that all teams don't have a top prospect in the high minors at every position. Taking one position and saying we don't have just top prospects at that position AND in the high minors ready to take over is not an indictment on a team's system. The Sox should have known this and done better to build depth at that position, to be fair that wasn't helped by a lot of injuries. Still it's not a good look.

I get your point, but just, because the Red Sox farm is higher ranked, because of a few players doesn’t mean it’s any good, or will be productive, which is mine. I’m not asking for someone to be a high ranked SS to come up, but anyone who could field the position, and hit better than 083. Is that to much to ask?

[jad]

Yeah, Bloom has totally fixed the farm! Of course, there are no middle infielders or outfielders that good enough to be called up even in emergencies, or first basemen or pitchers. But everywhere else, Portland and Worcester are just FULL of future all-stars.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Duvall was meant to occupy a big part of the lineup. He’s likely not going to be the same for 23. That’s a massive hole that your depth can’t fix

 

You're a massive hole.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, Bloom has totally fixed the farm! Of course, there are no middle infielders or outfielders that good enough to be called up even in emergencies, or first basemen or pitchers. But everywhere else, Portland and Worcester are just FULL of future all-stars.

 

Chaim started in 2020. The 2020 draft included 4 picks. Nick Yorke is in AA. Blaze Jordan is starting off in High A, but could be in AA by year end. Not many of the guys from this draft are beating the doors down across the league unless they are top tier prospects (Pete Crow Armstrong, Jordan Walker, Torkleson, Max Mayer).

 

How long should the appropriate development time be for the 2021 and 2022 drafts?

[Old Red]

Yeah, Bloom has totally fixed the farm! Of course, there are no middle infielders or outfielders that good enough to be called up even in emergencies, or first basemen or pitchers. But everywhere else, Portland and Worcester are just FULL of future all-stars.

 

That’s my point. Mayer, Rafaela, Blies, Yorke may be up some day, but they are no help now, and there is no help to be had at the here, and now, which is what’s most important at the moment.

[Maxbialystock]

The Red Sox have no depth. I keep hearing the farm is better, but they can’t even bring up anyone to play SS who can field, and hit better than 083. Wouldn’t a Jeter Downs have looked good, but he sucked big time, and never made it. What a haul Bloom got for Mookie. The best option for an OF to be brought up is the Butterfly Man, so for a farm that’s supposed to be better I’d say it’s still pretty thin.

 

Meh. Building a good farm system takes time. And that's a cheap shot on the Mookie trade. He went because John Henry knew he was going to demand a gigantic salary, one JH was unwilling to pay. So off Mookie went to the Dodgers along with deadbeat, expensive David Price (so bad the Sox had to pay half his salary with the Dodgers). This was exactly the kind of trade the Sox made after I think the 2014 season when the Sox sent AGon, Beckett, and Lackey to the Dodgers.

 

Sox team salaries are now 14th highest in MLB--which is the lowest in the John Henry era. You think Bloom is behind this, but clearly it's John Henry. I think David Dombrowski soured him on the "spend big" approach.

 

Speaking of which, the Dodgers and Yankees continue to be near the top of MLB team salaries, year after year after year, simply because they both have huge fan bases and can afford to spend big.

 

During the John Henry era in Boston, 2002-present, the Yankees have won 1 WS (2009), and the Dodgers 1 (the phony-baloney WS of 2020, which was/is a complete joke). The Sox have also spent big for almost all of the JH era, but the four WS titles suggest they also spent smart--even including the guy I don't like, DD. That 2018 Sox team was the Sox best team ever--and then stunk it up in 2019, after which DD left and Bloom was hired, clearly with the JH intent of wanting to try a different approach.

[Maxbialystock]

Chaim started in 2020. The 2020 draft included 4 picks. Nick Yorke is in AA. Blaze Jordan is starting off in High A, but could be in AA by year end. Not many of the guys from this draft are beating the doors down across the league unless they are top tier prospects (Pete Crow Armstrong, Jordan Walker, Torkleson, Max Mayer).

 

How long should the appropriate development time be for the 2021 and 2022 drafts?

 

Only JH has the answer to that question.

[Old Red]

Meh. Building a good farm system takes time. And that's a cheap shot on the Mookie trade. He went because John Henry knew he was going to demand a gigantic salary, one JH was unwilling to pay. So off Mookie went to the Dodgers along with deadbeat, expensive David Price (so bad the Sox had to pay half his salary with the Dodgers). This was exactly the kind of trade the Sox made after I think the 2014 season when the Sox sent AGon, Beckett, and Lackey to the Dodgers.

 

Sox team salaries are now 14th highest in MLB--which is the lowest in the John Henry era. You think Bloom is behind this, but clearly it's John Henry. I think David Dombrowski soured him on the "spend big" approach.

 

Speaking of which, the Dodgers and Yankees continue to be near the top of MLB team salaries, year after year after year, simply because they both have huge fan bases and can afford to spend big.

 

During the John Henry era in Boston, 2002-present, the Yankees have won 1 WS (2009), and the Dodgers 1 (the phony-baloney WS of 2020, which was/is a complete joke). The Sox have also spent big for almost all of the JH era, but the four WS titles suggest they also spent smart--even including the guy I don't like, DD. That 2018 Sox team was the Sox best team ever--and then stunk it up in 2019, after which DD left and Bloom was hired, clearly with the JH intent of wanting to try a different approach.

 

It’s not a cheap shot on the Mookie trade. Jeter Downs was a BUST, and Wong is a backup C. Like I said before I’m not looking for any major prospect here to play SS, or CF just someone somewhat reliable, and competent, which obviously the Red Sox do not have.

[mvp 78]

Only JH has the answer to that question.

 

Only John Henry knows how long it should take a draftee from 2021 to develop? What a deeply unserious answer!

[Maxbialystock]

Well you're making my point. It's been a long time since the Sox have had a bad offense, they've always scored runs. Even when they had the 4th worse record in baseball in 2020 they were still 11th in runs scored. In recent years their struggles have been with some combination of Defense, starting pitching, and relief pitching. As you pointed out a few guys have carried the offense, so what, in a month from now those guys can regress back to the mean, but that's a two-way street. Guys like Casas, Kike, Turner, and Arroyo. Also, we might be surprised by what Mondesi and Story contribute too.

 

By the end of a 162 games season, it's been a long time since the offense has really been a big problem.

 

So, I'll revert back to my point. I'm not concerned about the offense. Now the defense scares me, and the pitching still has me very skeptical as well.

 

The defense stinks, I agree, but right now I kind of like the pitching. Yes, Whitlock stunk last night, but it was against the highest scoring offense in MLB. For reference, Klubar and Sale also stunk their first times out--against teams that don't hit/score as well as Tampa.

 

And the night before Pivetta, with his reworked breaking ball, which I hesitate to call a curve, held the Rays scoreless for 5 innings. Then the bullpen gave up the solo dinger in the 8th for the only run in the game. Pretty doggone good pitching by the Sox.

 

In two games and 18 innings against the best offense in MLB, Whitlock gave up 5 runs in 5 innings, and everybody else (Pivetta and the bullpen) gave up 2 earned runs in 11 innings. With a lousy defense backing them up.

 

Tonight Sale gets a shot, and let's hope he has good stuff. Last time out was a big improvement over his first start, but he still threw a very hittable fastball. If he throws a lot of fastballs tonight, he's dead meat. He needs to use that slider, changeup (the good one, not that lousy one that sometimes shows up), and what looks like a new pitch this season, a cut fastball.

 

As for the hitting, I'm getting a little tired of the "they're using lefties" excuse. The real problem is that the Rays pitchers are all professionals with good stuff and good command. Plus we already saw the Pirates cut the Sox hitters down to size--at Fenway and with Duvall in the lineup.

 

My assessment right now is that the Sox pitching is their strength. Defense and baserunning are nonexistent. And the hitting is suspect. Thus did our best hitter, our $315M man, look at a called 3d strike with the bases loaded in the 8th inning of game 1 in Tampa. I do think the Sox lineup can hit bad pitching.

[vegasbob]

Only John Henry knows how long it should take a draftee from 2021 to develop? What a deeply unserious answer!

 

The right answer should be 3-4 years after beginning play within the system, not later than age 25 for a debut at the MLB level. Otherwise your chances of being a MLB regular contributor start falling off the cliff of woulda, coulda, shoulda

[Hugh2]

I think it's a bad ASSumption to believe he'll come back fine. It's more likely to ASSume that there will be some sort of negative impact.

 

I think it's a bad assumption either way. I wouldn't be surprised either way. If all it is, is a broken bone then it's not that bad of an assumption. Bones heal, but things get more complicated when tendons and ligements are involved or a bone is shattered. If it's just a small break, which the timeline they've provided eludes too, it might not be that bad and he should be making a full recovery and through a rehab assignment in just a couple months.

[Hugh2]

I get your point, but just, because the Red Sox farm is higher ranked, because of a few players doesn’t mean it’s any good, or will be productive, which is mine. I’m not asking for someone to be a high ranked SS to come up, but anyone who could field the position, and hit better than 083. Is that to much to ask?

 

No it's not. If that's your bar, Rafaela could do that now. But he should still be developing and I expect Kike to hit much better than .083. With Duvall out and the defense HORRIBLE, I wouldn't mind seeing Kike go back to CF and the Sox get someone who can field SS at SS.

[Hugh2]

The defense stinks, I agree, but right now I kind of like the pitching. Yes, Whitlock stunk last night, but it was against the highest scoring offense in MLB. For reference, Klubar and Sale also stunk their first times out--against teams that don't hit/score as well as Tampa.

 

And the night before Pivetta, with his reworked breaking ball, which I hesitate to call a curve, held the Rays scoreless for 5 innings. Then the bullpen gave up the solo dinger in the 8th for the only run in the game. Pretty doggone good pitching by the Sox.

 

In two games and 18 innings against the best offense in MLB, Whitlock gave up 5 runs in 5 innings, and everybody else (Pivetta and the bullpen) gave up 2 earned runs in 11 innings. With a lousy defense backing them up.

 

Tonight Sale gets a shot, and let's hope he has good stuff. Last time out was a big improvement over his first start, but he still threw a very hittable fastball. If he throws a lot of fastballs tonight, he's dead meat. He needs to use that slider, changeup (the good one, not that lousy one that sometimes shows up), and what looks like a new pitch this season, a cut fastball.

 

As for the hitting, I'm getting a little tired of the "they're using lefties" excuse. The real problem is that the Rays pitchers are all professionals with good stuff and good command. Plus we already saw the Pirates cut the Sox hitters down to size--at Fenway and with Duvall in the lineup.

 

My assessment right now is that the Sox pitching is their strength. Defense and baserunning are nonexistent. And the hitting is suspect. Thus did our best hitter, our $315M man, look at a called 3d strike with the bases loaded in the 8th inning of game 1 in Tampa. I do think the Sox lineup can hit bad pitching.

 

Yeah, I can get on board with this. I have concerns with the pitching, but I also see some good there and I have a lot of faith they can be better and good this year. Yes, a lot can go wrong there too if they get the injury bug but I think it could be an asset.

But I'm not sure there's much hope for this defense.

[moonslav59]

That’s my point. Mayer, Rafaela, Blies, Yorke may be up some day, but they are no help now, and there is no help to be had at the here, and now, which is what’s most important at the moment.

 

You seem to like to throw blame, so who's fault is it that the prospects acquired 4-10 years ago (pre-Bloom) are providing no help, now?

 

Yes, Downs bit the bullet, but what about the long stretch from Devers call-up in 2017 to the Houck arrival in 2020-2021, and some may argue Houck is not good enough to count as a major impact homegrown player. Maybe 2017 to who knows? Mayer?

 

You need guys coming up on a consistent basis- some newbies doing well, some 2nd or 3rd year guys doing even better and some nearing the end of their arbs doing great. We've had Devers and basically only Devers, but somehow Bloom was supposed to turn it around with the Betts (and Price, too, don't forget) trade and magically create ML ready prospects in just 1-3 years after being drafted.

 

Many of the stars, today, were drafted or signed as IFAs over 3 to 5 years ago.